$245 million. The reviews are great so far, and there just aren't any other kid-friendly, family-friendly movies out there this summer. Matrix and T-3 are both R-rated, and almost everything else is PG-13. Word of mouth, reviews, a marketing blitz and the dearth of same-demo competition will push it way over $200 million by August 1st.
Finding Nemo - your guess on the box office take by Labor Day?
- Thread starter airlarry!
- Start date
HB2K
I Spit Hot Fire!
- Joined
- May 2, 2002
- Messages
- 611
Funny....I had the same opinion about Monsters Inc. The first batch of commercials with Mike & Sully falling into the child's room and the gag about Mike's geography disorder didn't make me want to see Monsters....
But I gave Pixar the benefit of the doubt, even though the product's lead in advertising didn't sell me on the movie (Disney used to get that benefit from me). And I'll tell you what....Pixar delivered.
Then I saw my first Nemo preview....very dry & VERY boring. I was really concerned about the flick, but as more and more of the movie has been revealed in the lead in advertising.....I'm getting more and more excited....I think this one will do well. Aside from people associating Pixar with success, the Pixar films are always very colorful & lush & attractive....
I think it'll do well.
d-r
<font color=red>l|ll|||ll||ll||<font color=purple>
- Joined
- May 31, 2000
- Messages
- 3,284
"rottentomatoes.com has it at 100% fresh ive never seen that or thought it possible."
yeah, but it won't last...they had one rotten, but the guy gave it a B+ so they changed it - 13/13 so far, but someone will be too grumpy to like it for sure
dr
i didn't think it was, but i guess it is possible:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ToyStory2-1091504/
yeah, but it won't last...they had one rotten, but the guy gave it a B+ so they changed it - 13/13 so far, but someone will be too grumpy to like it for sure
dr
i didn't think it was, but i guess it is possible:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ToyStory2-1091504/
Another Voice
Charter Member of The Element
- Joined
- Jan 27, 2000
- Messages
- 3,191
After being so wrong on Lilo and Stitch I'm rather hesitant to venture a guess. And while Finding Nemo is a great movie (you're mileage may vary)
I'm beginning to get the feeling that summer may not be the best time of year to release a warm, soft family movie. Shrek did well because its harder edge brought in the teenage and young adult crowd; but Nemo is one of the "let's all go out the movies tonight" family films. I think the holidays are a much better time of year to grab that crowd.
As shocking as it sounds, I'm pretty close to Mr. Pirate on this one: $125-$150 million. That's still vastly better than what Disney movies have pulled in recently and will still put it in the top ranks of summer movies, but I think families have other things to do on a long, warm summer evening than watch a movie in a theater.
But I hope I'm wrong.
As shocking as it sounds, I'm pretty close to Mr. Pirate on this one: $125-$150 million. That's still vastly better than what Disney movies have pulled in recently and will still put it in the top ranks of summer movies, but I think families have other things to do on a long, warm summer evening than watch a movie in a theater.
But I hope I'm wrong.
Planogirl
I feel the nerd in me stirring
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2000
- Messages
- 49,741
I don't think that Terminator is rated yet is it? Drat, I'm hoping for a PG-13 for that one!
As for family movies... There is maybe The Hulk for older kids. That lame looking thing from last year's American Idol winners. And what about this Sinbad movie made by Dreamworks? Of course, that's a ways off. Another Rugrats film, Spykids. You've got to be kidding me, Freddy vs Jason? Now I've seen it all.
I'm curious about Sinbad but I don't see a big threat here.
As for family movies... There is maybe The Hulk for older kids. That lame looking thing from last year's American Idol winners. And what about this Sinbad movie made by Dreamworks? Of course, that's a ways off. Another Rugrats film, Spykids. You've got to be kidding me, Freddy vs Jason? Now I've seen it all.
I'm curious about Sinbad but I don't see a big threat here.
doubletrouble_vb
Inspired
- Joined
- May 13, 2001
- Messages
- 3,777
I think it is going to crest $200 because I really want to see it. I did not want to see Treasure Planet because I thought the premise was stupid (ships in space?). I suppose a male fish bothering to search out its sole surviving offspring from one particular mating is ridiculous but...intriguing. Usually when I have enough interest in an animated movie to make sure I see it before it hits DVD its a hit.
airlarry!
Did you know some ferns date back to Prehistoric t
- Joined
- May 30, 2000
- Messages
- 959
Sounds like the competition is not as keen for the family dollar this summer...we'll do some extrapolation after the first weekend's numbers on Monday.
Hopemax ...312 (with mickeyminnie saying close to this)
dc7800.....270
D-R....250+
rexmundi.....245
BobO....225
Planogirl....210
breralex......210
Zippa...200
Doubletrouble....200
AirLarry!.....170
Another Pirate.....125-150
Danzzz.......134
Peter Voice.....125
Plutospup....110
HB2K.........'well'
Hopemax ...312 (with mickeyminnie saying close to this)
dc7800.....270
D-R....250+
rexmundi.....245
BobO....225
Planogirl....210
breralex......210
Zippa...200
Doubletrouble....200
AirLarry!.....170
Another Pirate.....125-150
Danzzz.......134
Peter Voice.....125
Plutospup....110
HB2K.........'well'
It wouldn't be fair to jump in on this having seen the premiere last night. All I can say is that the theatre was PACKED! standing room only and the movie received a resounding applause.
Is it really that good? I'll leave that to interpretation. My subjective reply is: It's great!!!!!!! Well worth seeing at the box office and a welcome reprieve to dreary spring weather here on the East Coast. Too bad it didn't open last weekend during the Memorial Day bust!
Is it really that good? I'll leave that to interpretation. My subjective reply is: It's great!!!!!!! Well worth seeing at the box office and a welcome reprieve to dreary spring weather here on the East Coast. Too bad it didn't open last weekend during the Memorial Day bust!
disneydude
Lily and Libby's Fanatical Disney Dad
- Joined
- Sep 14, 1999
- Messages
- 124
290 Million ++++
Luv2Roam
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2000
- Messages
- 15,479
Pixar needs monster box office for "Nemo"
Reuters, 05.29.03, 2:20 PM ET
By Peter Henderson
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - It's not giving anything away to say that the upcoming animated feature "Finding Nemo," has a happy ending.
But it's an open question whether the underwater fable created by Pixar Animation Studios Inc. and distributed by Walt Disney Co. will leave investors feeling the same magic glow as young viewers.
The ultimate commercial success of the computer animated tale will play out over several months, but the opening weekend will set the tone, analysts said ahead of the May 30 release.
Pixar, a young studio, and Disney have topped the weekend box office charts on the debut of each of their four co-productions, from "Toy Story" to "Monsters, Inc.," the standard to which Pixar has compared its newest effort.
If Nemo cracks $60 million in box office receipts on its first weekend, it will roughly equal "Monsters, Inc." Even so, Pixar shares have fallen in the few weeks after previous openings, leading some analysts to be wary of the stock now.
Pixar Chief Executive Steve Jobs said this month that he would be "thrilled" with a $30 million starting weekend and that the opening "can have some predictive value, but not always."
In "Finding Nemo," Pixar animators sweated for years with new technology to create a believable underwater kingdom, the setting for a story about a worry-wart father-fish living off the coast of Australia who charges into the unknown, along with a faithful but forgetful sidekick, to find his lost son Nemo.
"It is a buddy movie, it's a road movie, it's an action movie, it's a kid's movie," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Los Angeles box office tracker Exhibitor Relations, Inc., who has seen "Nemo" and believes it could equal "Monsters."
"I'm looking for the box office to be quite amazing this weekend," he said.
Movie studios have made a science of predicting years of sales from domestic and foreign box office, DVDs and television runs of a movie based on the first weekend's take, but Dergarabedian said it was more difficult to apply a formula to Pixar films which can gain momentum during their runs.
In the United States, "Monsters, Inc." earned more than four times its U.S. opening weekend gross. Foreign demand was roughly the same, with total receipts of $524 million as of February, making it the second-most successful animated movie ever after "The Lion King."
The long-term success of "Nemo" also depends on the DVD release late in 2003 and to a lesser extent whether children snatch up "Nemo" toys from licensees who pay a percent of their revenue to Pixar and Disney.
McDonald's Corp., for example, is ready to roll out Happy Meals with "Nemo" characters, PepsiCo Inc.'s Frito-Lay is tempting snackers with a trip to Australia and Kellogg Co. is ready with cereal promotions.
Hasbro Inc. is making "Nemo" toys that will be sold at Disney Stores and other retailers. However, Disney spokesman Gary Foster said the summer launch of "Nemo" made it difficult to compare to the November launch of "Monsters."
"As far as merchandise, it's hard to compare apples to apples. (The) holiday (sales period) is of course huge to begin with in terms of merchandise," he said.
If the movie fails to make the $60 million mark on the first weekend, Pixar can justifiably point to "Shrek," a rival animated blockbuster which also opened in the early summer and showed long legs.
"Nemo" has lots of room to stretch with minimal competition for about a month, said financial analyst Dennis McAlpine.
But he predicted Pixar's stock would face hard times in any case, since it has typically eased after the opening of its movies following pre-release runups. McAlpine forecast a drop of around 20 percent, or $10, in the month after the opening and recommends selling Pixar shares, which he does not own.
Pixar shares hit a recent high of over $59 on May 7 after a roughly two-month rally. After a fall below $52 they have risen in the last week to trade above $55 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.
The shares could be further pressured by lack of progress between Pixar and Disney on a new distribution deal that could replace the current one, which includes two films after "Nemo," said McAlpine. He does not expect a deal before next year. (Additional reporting by Jackie Sindrich in New York)
Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service
Reuters, 05.29.03, 2:20 PM ET
By Peter Henderson
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - It's not giving anything away to say that the upcoming animated feature "Finding Nemo," has a happy ending.
But it's an open question whether the underwater fable created by Pixar Animation Studios Inc. and distributed by Walt Disney Co. will leave investors feeling the same magic glow as young viewers.
The ultimate commercial success of the computer animated tale will play out over several months, but the opening weekend will set the tone, analysts said ahead of the May 30 release.
Pixar, a young studio, and Disney have topped the weekend box office charts on the debut of each of their four co-productions, from "Toy Story" to "Monsters, Inc.," the standard to which Pixar has compared its newest effort.
If Nemo cracks $60 million in box office receipts on its first weekend, it will roughly equal "Monsters, Inc." Even so, Pixar shares have fallen in the few weeks after previous openings, leading some analysts to be wary of the stock now.
Pixar Chief Executive Steve Jobs said this month that he would be "thrilled" with a $30 million starting weekend and that the opening "can have some predictive value, but not always."
In "Finding Nemo," Pixar animators sweated for years with new technology to create a believable underwater kingdom, the setting for a story about a worry-wart father-fish living off the coast of Australia who charges into the unknown, along with a faithful but forgetful sidekick, to find his lost son Nemo.
"It is a buddy movie, it's a road movie, it's an action movie, it's a kid's movie," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Los Angeles box office tracker Exhibitor Relations, Inc., who has seen "Nemo" and believes it could equal "Monsters."
"I'm looking for the box office to be quite amazing this weekend," he said.
Movie studios have made a science of predicting years of sales from domestic and foreign box office, DVDs and television runs of a movie based on the first weekend's take, but Dergarabedian said it was more difficult to apply a formula to Pixar films which can gain momentum during their runs.
In the United States, "Monsters, Inc." earned more than four times its U.S. opening weekend gross. Foreign demand was roughly the same, with total receipts of $524 million as of February, making it the second-most successful animated movie ever after "The Lion King."
The long-term success of "Nemo" also depends on the DVD release late in 2003 and to a lesser extent whether children snatch up "Nemo" toys from licensees who pay a percent of their revenue to Pixar and Disney.
McDonald's Corp., for example, is ready to roll out Happy Meals with "Nemo" characters, PepsiCo Inc.'s Frito-Lay is tempting snackers with a trip to Australia and Kellogg Co. is ready with cereal promotions.
Hasbro Inc. is making "Nemo" toys that will be sold at Disney Stores and other retailers. However, Disney spokesman Gary Foster said the summer launch of "Nemo" made it difficult to compare to the November launch of "Monsters."
"As far as merchandise, it's hard to compare apples to apples. (The) holiday (sales period) is of course huge to begin with in terms of merchandise," he said.
If the movie fails to make the $60 million mark on the first weekend, Pixar can justifiably point to "Shrek," a rival animated blockbuster which also opened in the early summer and showed long legs.
"Nemo" has lots of room to stretch with minimal competition for about a month, said financial analyst Dennis McAlpine.
But he predicted Pixar's stock would face hard times in any case, since it has typically eased after the opening of its movies following pre-release runups. McAlpine forecast a drop of around 20 percent, or $10, in the month after the opening and recommends selling Pixar shares, which he does not own.
Pixar shares hit a recent high of over $59 on May 7 after a roughly two-month rally. After a fall below $52 they have risen in the last week to trade above $55 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.
The shares could be further pressured by lack of progress between Pixar and Disney on a new distribution deal that could replace the current one, which includes two films after "Nemo," said McAlpine. He does not expect a deal before next year. (Additional reporting by Jackie Sindrich in New York)
Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service
rwodonnell
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2002
- Messages
- 373
Well, since someone is tabulating, I'm going to jump in with my "price is right" edging of d-r, and say $251M.
I think it will be a considerable disappointment, frankly, if it doesn't top $200M.
I think it will be a considerable disappointment, frankly, if it doesn't top $200M.
mickeyminnie
happenin' chick<br><font color=blue>Rice Krispies
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2002
- Messages
- 227
you know when it is a hot humid weekend, you've already spent the week at the pool and the beach and are feeling a little water logged......
those are the great times to sit in a dark over-airconditioned theater with the kids, they are happy and comfy and don't bug you to do something for a couple hours.......
or you are at your inlaws for a week, and you really can't stand another night of "500" and the kids are climbing the walls..... movie night!!!
Rainy afternoon when you promised the kids they could go to the park..... movie day
I think summer is a great time to release a G movie. I think that if the story line has a little substance there is a great chance for repeat viewers as well.
Can't wait, we will probably not see it this weekend though, I work.
those are the great times to sit in a dark over-airconditioned theater with the kids, they are happy and comfy and don't bug you to do something for a couple hours.......
or you are at your inlaws for a week, and you really can't stand another night of "500" and the kids are climbing the walls..... movie night!!!
Rainy afternoon when you promised the kids they could go to the park..... movie day
I think summer is a great time to release a G movie. I think that if the story line has a little substance there is a great chance for repeat viewers as well.
Can't wait, we will probably not see it this weekend though, I work.
airlarry!
Did you know some ferns date back to Prehistoric t
- Joined
- May 30, 2000
- Messages
- 959
FindingNemo
F. U. G. G.
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2002
- Messages
- 101
I'm thinking a ballpark figure around 250M
airlarry!
Did you know some ferns date back to Prehistoric t
- Joined
- May 30, 2000
- Messages
- 959
We're about to close this thing...and here are some of the tabulations. There were a few suprises here, especially with AV & DScoop accidently outing themselves (himself?) as the same person in much the same manner as the two writers from Ender's Game.
Hopemax ...312 (with mickeyminnie saying close to this)
disneydude.....290
dc7800.....270
D-R....250+
Bob "rwwodonnell" Barker......251
Finding Nemo........250 (shocker!)
rexmundi.....245
BobO....225 (needed 135 more for a loop-de-loop)
Planogirl....210
breralex......210
Europa....200+
Zippa...200
Doubletrouble....200
jlambrig........185
AirLarry!.....170 (with a hot arrow pointing up like on the billboard charts)
HB2K.......170
Danzzz.......134
Another Pirate.....125-150
The DScoop ......... same as Another Pirate (hmmm.......)
Peter Voice.....125
Plutospup....110
HB2K.........'well'
Hopemax ...312 (with mickeyminnie saying close to this)
disneydude.....290
dc7800.....270
D-R....250+
Bob "rwwodonnell" Barker......251
Finding Nemo........250 (shocker!)
rexmundi.....245
BobO....225 (needed 135 more for a loop-de-loop)
Planogirl....210
breralex......210
Europa....200+
Zippa...200
Doubletrouble....200
jlambrig........185
AirLarry!.....170 (with a hot arrow pointing up like on the billboard charts)
HB2K.......170
Danzzz.......134
Another Pirate.....125-150
The DScoop ......... same as Another Pirate (hmmm.......)
Peter Voice.....125
Plutospup....110
HB2K.........'well'
raidermatt
Be water, my friend.
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2000
- Messages
- 6,856
Alright, throw me in at $196.4 million.
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