Final decision time -- where am I off?

[jdove]

OK -- first, a very big thank you to all of you who offered suggestions and input you've offered into the process. After giving this some serious thought for a few days, here's a summary of my thought process -- from what I want to what I ultimately selected:

About us:
Family of four -- Ages 37 / 37 -- two girls 4 & 3

Vacation habits:
Currently like off-season travel Sun - Thurs. We do not envision traveling during really peak periods like Christmas week or Spring Break. We would probably enjoy the Dec 1 - 15 period. Until the kids get much older -- we will probably take them out of school to avoid crowds (I know, that sounds horrible).

Preference:
Strong preference for BWV or BC as far as where to stay. As the years pass, I imagine proximity to DD might be a plus for teens -- but realistically, we'll want to be at Epcot.

Offers considered:
160 BWV points at $92 / $14,720
180 SSR points at $83.3 / $14,974
(in case you're wondering, I excluded BC ultimately because of the lack of special/discounted 'standard' view rooms) -- seemed to me the potential discounts w/ essentially the same location were more valuable than the pool.

Other factor to consider:
We were able to reserve our desired spot (BWV) for our desired time slot -- last week in January 2006 -- just two days ago. That tells me that, for us at least, there's probably not too much difficulty getting into BWV with SSR points at the 7 month mark for the foreseeable future.

Decision:
Buy in at SSR with the extra 20 points, which last an additional 12 years -- or until my kids are 50.

Rationalizations:
(1) 20 more points and 12 more years for the same cost;
(2) Not convinced it will be that hard to get times I want at BWV;
(3) IF I prove wrong, I can probably sell 180 SSRs for the same price as it will cost to buy someone's 150 or 160 point BWV contract -- this is especially true 10 years from now when, in 2016, new 35 year old buyers will be comparing expire dates that translate to age 60 for BWV and age 72 for SSR. That's not insignificant.

Upside for being right with SSR -- extra 12 years on contract (to kids age 51 v 39); still have ability to book other resorts -- may simply need to be flexible with dates of travel (we're flexible)

Downside for being wrong -- It might cost me as much as $2,000 or so (worst case) to trade a 180 point contract for a 160 point BWV contract at some later date (especially after SSR promotions end).

So -- there you have it. How's that for overthinking things. I have been going back and forth on this thing for some time. It's really the timing to 2052 that is throwing it for me. I imagine that this feature will help resale of SSR down the road -- if I am thinking of it now, others will even more so in the future.

Bottom line -- it seems as though this is ultimately a potential $2k to $3k mistake -- or, a 'hey, I'm glad I have 20 more points and 12 more years pat me on the back thing'. Thoughts -- did I miss something or is there a significant flaw in my logic here?

Thanks,
JD

 

[Cruelladeville]

Your thinking is sound, except for thinking you are going to always take your girls out of school--that won't happen! In most places, taking your kids out of school is forbidden unless they will never be in sports, or any extracurricular activity where others count on them. Most places kick kids off the team for missing school, so you might as well put Spring break or summer into your planning for the future. You usually won't have trouble getting accommodations somewhere at the 7 month window, so go for the longer contract.

 

[jdove]

Thanks for the thoughts. I imagine I've got a good six or seven years before sports start. And, even then, my girls take to sports like a duck in the desert.

Summer at DW -- not so sure I can stomach that idea.

 

[Goofy's apprentice]

The school timing could be an issue but that really depends on your school district. Our teachers and administration have never given us a problem. We were very up front with them early in each school year as to what they would be missing, did anything we could to make sure the kids were caught up and completed any homework given. Our kids were in grades 7 and 4 last year and missed three weeks in the fall and a week and a half in the spring. Now this certainly was an unusual year but still everyone was fine. The kids even both had good parts in the school spring play ! High school will be different, but grade school is a possibility if your children can manage it. More than one teacher has told us that there are valuable lessons to be learned on a family vacation

 

[nestlejean]

It's easier to take the young ones out of school but when High School comes, it's a different story. Enjoy it now! We usually took them out with a teachers convention or when they had 2 days off so it wasn't a whole week. It was no problem . They would get their homework ahead and work on it while we drove there. I could still "help" them when they were in grade school, now high school stuff-forget it!

 

[JimC]

Welcome to the DIS and our little DVC community here!

Consider that your future travel habits will most likely change in ways you have not considered. Therefore reasonable looking forward is fine, but maintaining flexibility is probably more important then trying to be right.

Agree that SSR is probably the best value right now for your situation.

Not getting a trade may not seem such a big deal later as you can always stay at your home resort. I recommend you book your home resort at 11 months then change at 7 months. That way you know you are going and can work out travel and other logistics further out.

 

[mikesmom]

Two things you may have overlooked:
1- peak periods for DVC are not the same as peak periods for WDW in general. As a matter of fact, the summer vacation time is actually easier to book at 7 months for DVC than other times. The period you mentioned favoring (Dec 1 -15) is actually THE peak period for DVC because of good weather, holiday decorations and low point costs. That is a difficult time to book BWV at 7 months. Not impossible, but may become more difficult as more members join. If you will not be unhappy at SSR, you will be fine.

2- You mentioned the availability of "discounted" standard rooms at BWV. They are also difficult to get at the 7 month point because they are lower and there aren't very many of them. Again, if you will be happy with SSR if the BWV standard is not available, you will be fine.

Just some added thoughts.

 

[LisaS]

Your points cost comparison assumes you are purchasing BWV directly from Disney. If you purchase via resale your cost per point, including closing costs, will be around $87-$88 per point. So you should be able to purchase 170 BWV points for roughly the price of 180 SSR points. If you haven't already taken a look at some resale contract prices, click on the "DVC Resales" link at the top of this web page. Closing costs for a 160-170 point contract will be $500, assuming prices have not changed since I bought my resale contract last summer. So just factor in an additional $500 when looking at resale prices.

But when it comes to the length of the contract, only SSR can offer you those extra 12 years.

By the way, I'm not trying to persuade you to buy BWV. I just want to be sure you are aware of all of your options. Deciding which DVC resort to buy (and whether to buy in at all or continue to rent) is very personal decision. You are doing a great job looking at this from all angles!

 

[bom_noite]

Your points cost comparison assumes you are purchasing BWV directly from Disney. If you purchase via resale your cost per point, including closing costs, will be around $87-$88 per point.

I would echo everything everyone else said and add:

1) The schools do not work the way they did when we were in them. It is a l proficiency Testing, Testing, Testing. It makes it a bit more difficult to pull kids out of school.

In addition, when one is in Elementary, the other will be in Middle School with different test times, agendas, etc. I know, we have 2 with the same 3 year spacing as you do.

2) I am not trying to bash SSR - in fact - my wife and I are toying an add-on their right now. I think for now BWV will hold its value a little bit better. Less contracts - that simple.

3) I have a theory that it may get more difficult in the future to get desired weeks at BWV, BCV and VWL. As more people buy in to SSR and decide "hey - lI really want to try the Boardwalk" demand for the resort will increase.

Especially true if they build another DVC soon - like Eagle Pines, etc.


So, a thought to consider is to buy the resale at BWV for now, then, add-on to SSR or another resort in the future.

One mans opinion!

 

[JimMIA]

First of all, you did not overthink anything. I wish more people put the time, thought and research into these purchases. Most of us don't do the good work you've done.

I have to agree with Mikesmom and others about the choice of resort. I am most definitely NOT one of those who constantly advise people to "buy where you want to stay," because I think many people attach more importance to that than they should. But your case is one where it probably makes sense.

If you want standard view rooms at BWV just about any time, you have to be able to plan far in advance and book in the 11 month window -- actually, you'd better book early in the 11 month window if you expect to get standard view.

Also, if you plan to visit in early December, that is absolutely THE busiest time of the year for DVC because of holiday decorations, lowest point cost, special holiday events, and association meetings. I think it is quite likely that you will not get ANY accommodations during that period anywhere except your home resort. Okay, you might be able to get OKW or SSR for early December at seven months, but probably not any of the others.

I would also suggest you look at resale if BWV is really what you want. The Timeshare Store has financing available for resales if you need it. The interest rate may be slightly higher than Disney charges, but that's partially offset by the lower price. A home equity line, if you have that option, is usually considerably cheaper than either Disney or resale financing.

If you buy resale, remember one thing. Price your offer high enough to ensure that you clear ROFR. If you don't get past ROFR, nothing else matters. Don't try to save $200-300 and lose a contract you really want.

 

[CarolMN]

......(snip).......
If you want standard view rooms at BWV just about any time, you have to be able to plan far in advance and book in the 11 month window -- actually, you'd better book early in the 11 month window if you expect to get standard view.

Also, if you plan to visit in early December, that is absolutely THE busiest time of the year for DVC because of holiday decorations, lowest point cost, special holiday events, and association meetings. I think it is quite likely that you will not get ANY accommodations during that period anywhere except your home resort. Okay, you might be able to get OKW or SSR for early December at seven months, but probably not any of the others.
.......(snip)...... Don't try to save $200-300 and lose a contract you really want.

To me, the above statements are key considerations. If they are not all that important to you, then SSR is the way to go. As A BWV owner, I can honestly tell you that standard views are almost always gone before the 7 month window even opens. You will occasionally read here that people get SV at 7 months, but you will not read about the hundreds of other members who do not.

Mid-January to mid-February, most of May and September are the easiest times to book DVC resorts. Getting a standard view at 7 months for other times will be very few and far between.

If you want to stay at one of the smaller resorts (VWL, BCV or BWV) during more popular times, you have to be willing and able to call day by day at 9 AM Eastern to ensure you get your reservation. As membership grows at SSR, competition to get into the smaller DVC resorts at 7 months will also grow. Only you know how tolerant you will be with the dialing derby process and having to use waitlists.

Now if staying at SSR when you can't get in elsewhere is no big deal (and it's a great resort that many love), then none of the above matters. Buy SSR. Otherwise, you may find saving a few dollars now just isn't worth it.

Best wishes -

P.S. Have you factored in a broker's commission and closing costs into your sell/buy plan? I'm not so sure you could trade 180 SSR for 160 BWV. If your backup plan is to sell SSR and then buy less at BWV, I have to ask why you don't just start out with what you really want. (Just rhetorical, LOL)

 

[vascubaguy]

Just another addition to the thoughts on the resale side of things. If you look at BWV resale contracts, make sure you consider the current availability of points. A contract that has 0 points available until the next UY is far from being the same value as a contract that has banked points from the previous UY, current points, and all of the next year points available. Buying direct from Disney you will definately get all of the current UY.

Oh, one other thing, I was able to book a standard view studio at BWV during the last week of March with no problem. During that same time, there was plenty of availability at BCV and all other resorts. (This was at the 7-month window). So, since you have some flexibility in when you travel, I would imagine you wouldn't have much trouble as long as you book at the 7-month mark. Also, if you don't mind staying at other locations if for some reason there is no availability. For me, the deciding factor for buying in at SSR was the additional years.

Let us know what you decide to do!

 

[Caskbill]

Good advice from everyone. The only thing you don't seem to have considered is the annual maintenance costs. Over time, the maintenance costs will exceed your original purchase costs. If you purchase 200 points for example at resort 'A', and it's maintenance is 50-cents more per point than resort 'B', that's $100 more annually to own at resort 'A' then to own at Resort 'B'.

Just one more thing you might want to consider.

 

[mydogdrew]

Also, remember that 160 points at BWV is similar to 200 at SSR if you are happy with std view and you can plan well in advance.

 

[elan]

Another consideration for the extra points. When we first bought we looked at the sun-fri thing too, and thought we would be happy with 5 night trips. We've never stayed shorter than 6 and normally stay 7 with the extra weekend at an on-site hotel. With the cost of airfare and our room covered I want to stay as long as possible. Enjoy yourself.

 

[owtrbnks]

We do alot of 3 or 4 night weekday trips because the airfare is so low!
Take the extra 12 years and 20 points . . . IMHO.
Maybe we're just lucky, but booked BWV standard in Dec. '05 for Jan. '06.
Booked OKW in May '05 for July '05.

 

[paults]

Strong preference for BWV or BC as far as where to stay

We would probably enjoy the Dec 1 - 15 period

if you want BWV or BCV for DEC 1-15 it could be tough as DVC really use these 1st 2 wks in Dec


Having SSR as home resort means you can only book at 7 months for BWV/BCV

Or you could buy 150 at SSR for 1st contract , then pick up a small one of about 50 pts for BWV and get 11 month booking for DEC (sun/thur for 45 pts standard studio room) for every DEC

 

[tmt martins]

It's easier to take the young ones out of school but when High School comes, it's a different story. Enjoy it now! We usually took them out with a teachers convention or when they had 2 days off so it wasn't a whole week. It was no problem . They would get their homework ahead and work on it while we drove there. I could still "help" them when they were in grade school, now high school stuff-forget it!

But in High school they will be old enough to say home and an adult only trip will work.