Fastpass return or replacement?

[SemperAbsurda]

While I agree this is all rumors and innuendos I do fully believe that Trial Balloons are being floated here and it is important to make our feelings known in all clear way so that the company gets the message about what we want which is the return of Free Fast Passes and Not Paid Fast Passes.

This might seem like a tin foil take at first, but as a Disneyland local, some of the rumors swirling around the replacement of their annual pass program, even days before the Magic Key program was announced, were truly horrible sounding, some of them coming from reputable insiders, and what we ended up with is more or less the same as the annual pass program with the restriction of required reservations. Disney is not above manipulative marketing tactics, and I would not be surprised if they intentionally leak information to not only get a feel for real customer feedback, but also so that when they announce, say, the return of Fastpass+ (3 free fastpasses) with the option of paying for unlimited fastpass or Maxpass or whatever they decide to do, we collectively say "that's not so bad" or "it could have been a lot worse," which is what my reaction to Magic Keys was, and we accept the new changes without much negative feedback, and Disney one way or another extracts more profit from its guests.

 

[mshanson3121]

This has been over multiple years for me. The wait times this year are well over 60 minutes because of lack of fastpass

The trips I was referring to were before Covid.

 

[cakebaker]

they lie about wait times to discourage guests and keep queues from spilling out into the entire park.

I don't believe this theory to start with, but if it was true, it's a total failure. Regardless of what the wait times posted are, queues are spilling out into the entire park and have been since they upped capacity.

 

[SarahWI]

This might seem like a tin foil take at first, but as a Disneyland local, some of the rumors swirling around the replacement of their annual pass program, even days before the Magic Key program was announced, were truly horrible sounding, some of them coming from reputable insiders, and what we ended up with is more or less the same as the annual pass program with the restriction of required reservations.

This was my reaction to the Magic Key program as well. It is basically the same thing as an AP but with park reservations worked in. I honestly couldn’t understand how it was all that different.

 

[Cabius]

I don't believe this theory to start with, but if it was true, it's a total failure. Regardless of what the wait times posted are, queues are spilling out into the entire park and have been since they upped capacity.

It is very, very well documented that for at least the past few months posted wait times on many major attractions are consistently MUCH higher than the actual wait times recorded by guests and secret shoppers. It's not a theory. It's well-documented fact.

Now why Disney is choosing to do this is theoretical speculation, but if you've stood in the catastrophe that is the Kilimanjaro Safaris standby line it's pretty clear that even with inflated wait times, it causes major issues. If wait time postings were accurate, it would drive even more guests and even longer lines.

 

[ellbell]

All else being equal, the lack of fastpass makes standby lines shorter because 100% of the traffic is going through one queue.

Obviously FP+ is faster for those who have them, but they make standby lines much longer, and removing FP+ shortens standby wait times.

That said, posted wait times are much longer because the standby queues are not physically built to accommodate the entire ride capacity -- they assume 50%-70% of riders come through the FP+ queue -- so they lie about wait times to discourage guests and keep queues from spilling out into the entire park.

If the "it's a small world" queue extends 20 feet out of the standby entrance, that's about 35 minutes. The posted wait may say 75 minutes. It's a lie.

I'm not getting into that debate. If you believe it then great. I don't and again before covid never saw the wait over 40 minutes. You may have seen differently but it doesn't invalidate my experience or mean it's unrealistic.

 

[dez1978]

[wrong person

 

[TommyJK]

All else being equal, the lack of fastpass makes standby lines shorter because 100% of the traffic is going through one queue.

Obviously FP+ is faster for those who have them, but they make standby lines much longer, and removing FP+ shortens standby wait times.

Yes. I read over and over people trying to state/claim that FP+ has no real detrimental effect on standby, and say it's been proven based on a study that Touring plans did back in 2014 after FP+ was introduced showing little change in standby lines. But that study is flawed in that it compares the effects to standby between FP and FP+, not FP+ vs no FP at all.

We have some good data now though when you compare standy with FP+ (in 2019) vs now with no FP at all. And you also need to take into account that there is less to do overall in the parks right now (no parades, no character M&Gs, fewer shows etc.) so more people are queuing up for rides vs other activities too.

As an example, here is 7DMT wait times the 3rd Wed in July through Sunday for 2019 (with FP+ in full effect) vs. 2021 (no FP at all and less other activities available as well that even out the crowds better). 2019 was consistently higher for Standby than it is in 2021 with no FP. The same pattern shows for pretty much every headliner I check and compare.

 

[Venelope21]

That's an interesting chart. I think I would still rather have the benefit of FastPass for a few attractions with a very small wait and then wait 20 minutes "more" in a standby line when I needed to. The alternative being wait for a "long" period of time for everything.

 

[Pens Fan]

I would not be a fan of that. I like my fastpasses one right after the other and then being free to wing it. I also just don't like spending all day in one park. It gets boring.

I completely agree. We are not park comandos by any means. We usually go for a few hours, then head to a resort or DS, maybe back to the room for nap, etc. Then we head back out in the evening. Being stuck in one park not knowing when the Genie would magically grant us our wishes would not fit our style of touring. I know they can't please everyone but I really feel that a lot of people (especially repeat visitors) are like this. I just keep telling myself that's is all rumors to date, but at some point someone is going to be right in their predictions. I just really, really hope this isn't the time.

 

[Cabius]

Yes. I read over and over people trying to state/claim that FP+ has no real detrimental effect on standby, and say it's been proven based on a study that Touring plans did back in 2014 after FP+ was introduced showing little change in standby lines. But that study is flawed in that it compares the effects to standby between FP and FP+, not FP+ vs no FP at all.

We have some good data now though when you compare standy with FP+ (in 2019) vs now with no FP at all. And you also need to take into account that there is less to do overall in the parks right now (no parades, no character M&Gs, fewer shows etc.) so more people are queuing up for rides vs other activities too.

As an example, here is 7DMT wait times the 3rd Wed in July through Sunday for 2019 (with FP+ in full effect) vs. 2021 (no FP at all and less other activities available as well that even out the crowds better). 2019 was consistently higher for Standby than it is in 2021 with no FP. The same pattern shows for pretty much every headliner I check and compare.

View attachment 596201

This is great data!

There really are a lot of complicating factors --crowd sizes, park hours, other attraction availability, and the sheer question of how many people are willing to spend X minutes in line for Y attraction -- but the basic principles of supply and demand still apply here (and Disney's practice of overstating wait times during Covid is clearly established, well-documented fact.) It's cool to see how it plays out in the real world (or World).

Out of curiosity -- are you using posted wait times, or real wait data from e.g. touringplans?

Edited to be less snark -- sorry.

 

[DefnotDLav]

Yes. I read over and over people trying to state/claim that FP+ has no real detrimental effect on standby, and say it's been proven based on a study that Touring plans did back in 2014 after FP+ was introduced showing little change in standby lines. But that study is flawed in that it compares the effects to standby between FP and FP+, not FP+ vs no FP at all.

We have some good data now though when you compare standy with FP+ (in 2019) vs now with no FP at all. And you also need to take into account that there is less to do overall in the parks right now (no parades, no character M&Gs, fewer shows etc.) so more people are queuing up for rides vs other activities too.

As an example, here is 7DMT wait times the 3rd Wed in July through Sunday for 2019 (with FP+ in full effect) vs. 2021 (no FP at all and less other activities available as well that even out the crowds better). 2019 was consistently higher for Standby than it is in 2021 with no FP. The same pattern shows for pretty much every headliner I check and compare.

View attachment 596201

And the "silent" factor in FP+ is that it removes wait tolerance.

For example, some people just would skip a ride if it was higher than their wait tolerance. Now, with FP+, there is a way to avoid that so more people get pushed onto the rides than would organically ride, if that makes any sense.

 

[malba2366]

But if the standby line has been closed because it has reached a maximum allowable length, would that also mean that someone with a DAS would also be unable to join the wait?

In that case someone with DAS should be turned away as well and told to return when the standby line opens to get their time reservation. The purpose of DAS is to create the same experience for those who can not wait in line, not to give them an improved experience or to give them for free what others are paying for n

 

[TommyJK]

Out of curiosity -- are you using posted wait times, or real wait data from e.g. touringplans?

Edited to be less snark -- sorry.

The site mines the data continually from DW's app

 

[SemperAbsurda]

I've seen folks say that it wouldn't work in Orlando for one reason or another but I sure wish they would implement a version of Maxpass (at least, selfishly, for my trip in October). No planning months in advance, easy to use, as many fastpasses as you could squeeze into a day, the occasional e-ticket that had ran out of slots earlier would randomly show a return time available, not having to run all over the park to get your fastpasses. As a passholder, I think it was like an $80 add-on to the AP and it was one of the best best values Disneyland offered.

 

[Stefne]

Certainly the room makes it a better deal, but currently per person
69.99 One time per ride
89.99 Unlimited

If it is 9.99 per Fast pass then it would take approximately 7 Fast passes to break even with Express Pass Limited and 9 for Unlimited.

Disney pricing is still just a guess, but I am guessing that Disney will not be noticeably less affordable than Universal (room deal excluded)

But without the room deal, I don't find Universal express pass prices affordable so I wouldn't purchase them without that option . Unfortunately, I don't foresee Epic Universe being a part of this Express Pass deal when it opens so we will have to suffer the long lines there .

 

[jujubiee4]

this isn’t the first time I’ve read this about park hopping. It makes me wonder if whatever new system they release will deter people from hopping. If genie grants you FP times will they spread them out through the day at one park? Say 9 am, noon and 4 pm. Add in park reservations and no hopping after 2 pm. But you’d think they like that “free” money of adding hopping to tickets.

Someone else posted about this saying they don't want your FP to be back to back to back. Say your
done by noon and leave to spend rest of day at pool. They want them spread out so to deter you from
leaving. In other words when you are not riding you are spending money or eating.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Craig Larson]

Yes. I read over and over people trying to state/claim that FP+ has no real detrimental effect on standby, and say it's been proven based on a study that Touring plans did back in 2014 after FP+ was introduced showing little change in standby lines. But that study is flawed in that it compares the effects to standby between FP and FP+, not FP+ vs no FP at all.

We have some good data now though when you compare standy with FP+ (in 2019) vs now with no FP at all. And you also need to take into account that there is less to do overall in the parks right now (no parades, no character M&Gs, fewer shows etc.) so more people are queuing up for rides vs other activities too.

As an example, here is 7DMT wait times the 3rd Wed in July through Sunday for 2019 (with FP+ in full effect) vs. 2021 (no FP at all and less other activities available as well that even out the crowds better). 2019 was consistently higher for Standby than it is in 2021 with no FP. The same pattern shows for pretty much every headliner I check and compare.

View attachment 596201

So about an average of 15 more minutes without fastpass. So the question is...is 80% of people waiting 20 minutes via FP+ and 20% of people waiting an 100 minutes a better overall experience than nearly everyone having to wait 85 minutes?

 

[TommyJK]

And the "silent" factor in FP+ is that it removes wait tolerance.

For example, some people just would skip a ride if it was higher than their wait tolerance. Now, with FP+, there is a way to avoid that so more people get pushed onto the rides than would organically ride, if that makes any sense.

Oh I agree with this as well. You see it all over the boards statements like "I would never wait more than 'X' minutes for any ride" or something similar. For every person in an FP+ line there are going to be some that wouldn't automatically just go to the Standby line and do the longer wait.

 

[TommyJK]

So about an average of 15 more minutes without fastpass. So the question is...is 80% of people waiting 20 minutes via FP+ and 20% of people waiting an 100 minutes a better overall experience than nearly everyone having to wait 85 minutes?

I've seen this statistic stated all over the boards as well (i.e. 80% of the queue is FP+ and 20% is standby) but I've never seen a reliable source behind it. Do you have a reliable source for this stat? I've googled my brains out looking for such a stat and haven't been able to find anything definitive. I'd wager it's not that big of a disparity.

But regardless, what percentage of the FPs are people who are on their 2nd, 3rd or more re-ride of the ultra top headliners because they were pounding the app to re-snag another FP+ ? That's another detriment to the standby visitor just trying to get on it because they couldn't secure an FP themselves.