Extra Magic Hours Still Exist

[kaytieeldr]

Which is why I compared esster week this year to easter week in 2013, when Easter was also at the end of march. 2013 had morning emh, according to wdwinfo, every day M-F after Easter. This year, the only morning EMH this week is the regularly scheduled Friday emh. So that's a reduction of 4 morning emh days.

Well, it's a non-addition of four EMH. But because only one each week has been scheduled since the calendar was released six months ago, it's not a reduction.

Just as with investing, past performance is not an indication of future results.

 

[nervous1sttimer]

My family has been to WDW four times in the last four years. We stayed onsite the first three and offsite during our most recent trip in January. We have never once made use of EMH, because we were advised by multiple people (and after the first trip had it backed up by our own experiences) that avoiding EMH is a great way to beat the crowds when you don't have park hoppers (which we never do and never will). The first three onsite trips we made were at deluxe resorts and since we started in November 2012, that was right around the time they started talking about MM+ and the potential to reward different tier resorts with more or less FP+.

After staying offsite on our most recent trip (Wyndham Bonnet Creek), I can easily say I see no need to ever go back onsite as things are now. Keeping or eliminating EMH would make zero difference to me at all. HOWEVER, if they eliminated EMH and added more FP+ onsite (say, as an example, 4 for value, 5 for mods, and 6 for deluxe), I would instantly be back onsite at the deluxe level. And Disney knows that and has always known that. I think it is an inevitability in the not too distant future (1-3 years tops).

 

[DoingDisney]

Well, it's a non-addition of four EMH. But because only one each week has been scheduled since the calendar was released six months ago, it's not a reduction.

Just as with investing, past performance is not an indication of future results.

By this logic even if they dropped down to 1 EMH a year they wouldn't "reducing them" the just "wouldn't be offering as many as last year".

Last year there were 13, this year there are 5, you call it what you like, everyone else will call it a reduction.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Well, it's a non-addition of four EMH. But because only one each week has been scheduled since the calendar was released six months ago, it's not a reduction.

Just as with investing, past performance is not an indication of future results.

How is it not a reduction from one year to another? There were 5 morning EMH during easter week in 2013. There's 1 this year. That's a reduction in morning EMH for Easter week from 2013 to 2016.

Of course past performance does not guarantee the future will remain the same. The fact that it's not a guarantee doesn't mean it isn't a reduction when they offer less than they did in the past.

 

[Angel Ariel]

There are many, many, many places that have public school spring break the week of April 18. Many districts line up their spring breaks based on criteria not connected in any way with phases of the moon or holidays that always occur on a non-school day, but rather based on when they normally schedule spring break, or midway between winter break and the end of school.

I never said there weren't many that had it at other times as well. But to claim that this somehow isn't spring break season is factually inaccurate. The season shifts every year, in large part due to Easter shifting and the large number of districts who do schedule their break around the holiday. Spring break season, as I have always understood it to be on these boards, lasts from mid-March (when many colleges have their spring breaks regardless of when easter falls) through mid-April.

 

[Slapshot1188]

Well, it's a non-addition of four EMH. But because only one each week has been scheduled since the calendar was released six months ago, it's not a reduction.

Just as with investing, past performance is not an indication of future results.

Funny thing about investing... when I look at stocks I look at year over year performance. How is the company doing THIS quarter compared to same quarter last year, or this YTD compared to same period last year (among other items).

 

[kaytieeldr]

By this logic even if they dropped down to 1 EMH a year they wouldn't "reducing them" the just "wouldn't be offering as many as last year".

Last year there were 13, this year there are 5, you call it what you like, everyone else will call it a reduction.

Last year, there were four morning EMH scheduled at MK when the April calendar was released in October 2014. The five scheduled in 2016 is an increase (of 25%) over the previous year's schedule. Disney changes the schedule if crowd levels are going to be higher than originally predicted by adding EMH.

How is it not a reduction from one year to another? There were 5 morning EMH during easter week in 2013. There's 1 this year. That's a reduction in morning EMH for Easter week from 2013 to 2016.

Of course past performance does not guarantee the future will remain the same. The fact that it's not a guarantee doesn't mean it isn't a reduction when they offer less than they did in the past.

IF Disney had already scheduled and announced fourteenish EMH, then removed some, that's a reduction. They haven't. Not adding something does not equal reducing something. That's faulty logic.
That there is no Easter in April in 2016 does not signal or indicate that there is a reduction in Easters.
That most of the country has a tax deadline of 4/18/16, while Maine and Massachusetts have until 4/19/16, doesn't equal a change in the tax laws or mean that these will be the filing deadlines every year. They won't, and to expect that just because something happened this year or last year it will continue that way every year isn't reasonable.

I never said there weren't many that had it at other times as well. But to claim that this somehow isn't spring break season is factually inaccurate. The season shifts every year, in large part due to Easter shifting and the large number of districts who do schedule their break around the holiday. Spring break season, as I have always understood it to be on these boards, lasts from mid-March (when many colleges have their spring breaks regardless of when easter falls) through mid-April.

Most public schools schedule spring vacation pretty much the same week every year. Schools that offer winter vacation schedule spring vacation about halfway to the end of the school year - so, third week in February to coincide with Presidents' Day, third week in April is about halfway to the end of June. While public school spring vacation may coincidentally coordinate with Easter, that holiday - which falls on a day when there is no school - is not the reason for the vacation schedule.

Funny thing about investing... when I look at stocks I look at year over year performance. How is the company doing THIS quarter compared to same quarter last year, or this YTD compared to same period last year (among other items).

Take it up with Charles Schwab, or whatever entity started using the line in its ad disclaimers.
You can't tell today how/what a company will do two or three weeks from today based on what it's doing today, or even what it did last year at the same time.

 

[Planogirl]

So anything Disney offers starts with just one and everything beyond that is an addition? That's one way of looking at it.

 

[Minniekins]

Whether you call it a reduction or not, less is less, what ever you call it. If they had ~5 morning EMH in a previous year, and now have 1, that's less - they now have less this year than in prior years. Having a reduction of Emh from one year to another during a particular time period, having less now in this year during the same time period as in a previous year, either way you say it, it is just less - not as much in the current year as in previous years. There are a reduced amount of events, emh's, so there are less. Costs more but we get less!

 

[kaytieeldr]

So anything Disney offers starts with just one and everything beyond that is an addition? That's one way of looking at it.

One scheduled per week, every week, all year, six months in advance with added whatever-it-is as predicted crowd needs indicate? Yes, addition. Not a reduction.

April 2016 hasn't even started yet. Nobody can state today what will have happened in April until May. Predict, guess, sure.

Even if there are no EMH added - and there doesn't appear to be anyone on this forum with enough insider knowledge to determine when or whether that will or won't happen - there is not only not a reduction in month to month EMH, there is actually an incense in April over March.

 

[Angel Ariel]

IF Disney had already scheduled and announced fourteenish EMH, then removed some, that's a reduction. They haven't. Not adding something does not equal reducing something. That's faulty logic.

I'm not talking about 14 EMH, nor am I talking about the month of April. I specifically compared one week to another week that was an apples to apples comparison...Easter week in March one year to easter week in March another. Whatever term you want to use to describe it, there are less morning AM emh in MK in easter week 2016 than there were during that same week, with the same easter timing in 2013.

Most public schools schedule spring vacation pretty much the same week every year. Schools that offer winter vacation schedule spring vacation about halfway to the end of the school year - so, third week in February to coincide with Presidents' Day, third week in April is about halfway to the end of June. While public school spring vacation may coincidentally coordinate with Easter, that holiday - which falls on a day when there is no school - is not the reason for the vacation schedule.

I have been a public school teacher in multiple states across the country. I am more than well aware of what spring break schedules are like. Not all schools go until the end of June. many end at the end of may or early June, thus making the halfway point earlier than the 3rd week of April. Again regardless of what term you want to use, there are *many* thousands of districts across the country that had spring break last week or have it this week. There are also districts I have personally been in where spring break comprises of just Maundy thursday/good friday/easter Monday, and then yes it changes year to year depending on when those days fall. And yes, I'm referring to public schools.

 

[Slapshot1188]

there is not only not a reduction in month to month EMH, there is actually an incense in April over March.

That's surely a "unique" way of looking at things. Again though, that is why you use y/o comparisons and not month to month. Things are seasonal. Add up April AND March for both years and you will still get less in 2016. Let's just wait and see if they add more hours. I doubt it, but in another week or two we will know for sure!

 

[cjparker0110]

I'm paying attention, and I am not convinced that EMH will disappear

I'm sure 100 others have responded but I stopped reading after a while. I tried to convince myself that they will not disappear when I heard about Disney After Dark. However, now that I have heard they are also planning a morning one...well it's hard to convince myself that this is not designed to see if they can do away with the free entrances. My best guess is that these things are being set up as a test to see if anyone will pay the outrageous prices. Most likely they are designed to cater to the richest WDW guests who can actually afford to spend that kind of money for a basically empty park (because average people will not pay $150 for 3 hours or $70 for one hour in the morning). It makes me think of that old Bible phrase which has become a common idiom: I can see the writing on the wall.

 

[JimmyV]

Last year, there were four morning EMH scheduled at MK when the April calendar was released in October 2014. The five scheduled in 2016 is an increase (of 25%) over the previous year's schedule. Disney changes the schedule if crowd levels are going to be higher than originally predicted by adding EMH.

You are placing way too much emphasis on the word "scheduled". If in Year 1 there are 5 EMHs scheduled in a month and another 5 added "last minute" and in Year 2 there are 5 scheduled and none added last minute, then guests in Year 2 had fewer EMH opportunities plain and simple. Besides, what looks like a "last minute addition" may be nothing of the sort. Behind the scenes, Disney may have planned them all along but simply decided not to announce them in advance simply to provide the optics of bestowing "magic" on its guests. Given staffing needs, I find this likely. So from a behind the scenes perspective , there were 10 EMHs planned for Year 1 and 5 in Year 2. That is a reduction.

In short, "scheduled" is simply the small crumb of information that guests are given in advance and in no way reflect actual results which is all that matters. Since Easter and Spring Breaks take place in March and April each year, but shift around year to year, all one needs to do is add up the total number of actual EMH opportunities in March+April for 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 and you will see the trend and change over time. "Scheduled" is completely unimportant in this exercise as is any particular week. What matters is the actual total over a 2 month period. Anyone want to do that math?

 

[Lucius Best]

Well, it's a non-addition of four EMH. But because only one each week has been scheduled since the calendar was released six months ago, it's not a reduction.

So far in this thread, I have learned that Disney is a business, change is good, EMH will NOT be reduced because Disney said so, the reason EMH IS being reduced/monetized is because EMH is so underutilized, and until there are absolutely no EMH days at any park, EMH still exists and there's nothing to panic about. Now I have also been educated that going from 13 EMH days during the month of Easter to 5 days this year is not a reduction of 8 days like my calculator or any second grader would tell you, but it is a "non-addition". Got it.

 

[Nancyg56]

I'm sure 100 others have responded but I stopped reading after a while. I tried to convince myself that they will not disappear when I heard about Disney After Dark. However, now that I have heard they are also planning a morning one...well it's hard to convince myself that this is not designed to see if they can do away with the free entrances. My best guess is that these things are being set up as a test to see if anyone will pay the outrageous prices. Most likely they are designed to cater to the richest WDW guests who can actually afford to spend that kind of money for a basically empty park (because average people will not pay $150 for 3 hours or $70 for one hour in the morning). It makes me think of that old Bible phrase which has become a common idiom: I can see the writing on the wall.

Or, after the backlash that I have heard is occurring, this will just go away. Who knows?

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

Or, after the backlash that I have heard is occurring, this will just go away. Who knows?

I sure hope so! Disney has backed up when they over reached in the past.

AKK

 

[Planogirl]

I'm sure 100 others have responded but I stopped reading after a while. I tried to convince myself that they will not disappear when I heard about Disney After Dark. However, now that I have heard they are also planning a morning one...well it's hard to convince myself that this is not designed to see if they can do away with the free entrances. My best guess is that these things are being set up as a test to see if anyone will pay the outrageous prices. Most likely they are designed to cater to the richest WDW guests who can actually afford to spend that kind of money for a basically empty park (because average people will not pay $150 for 3 hours or $70 for one hour in the morning). It makes me think of that old Bible phrase which has become a common idiom: I can see the writing on the wall.

I couldn't agree more. Disney hasn't ever been very open about their plans but it's clear that their first goal is to make money. If they can sell EMH instead of giving it away why wouldn't they do so?

 

[Angel Ariel]

Or, after the backlash that I have heard is occurring, this will just go away. Who knows?

I hope that is the case. If it sells despite the backlash, though, I am not confident they will backtrack.

 

[Nancyg56]

I sure hope so! Disney has backed up when they over reached in the past.

AKK

I saw a thread posted earlier that had conversation that the magic hours were a rumor according to Disney. Not sure how they can say that, there was a place holder on the website, but you never know? I think that if this board's conversation is any indication, while they may sell this event, there are a lot of people who have decided that this is their line in the sand. Kind of like the resort fee, if implemented, will be my line. You want to raise rates, raise them. I will decide it the cost is a value to me. But don't get cute with the fees.

I hope that is the case. If it sells despite the backlash, though, I am not confident they will backtrack.

I know. I think it depends on the level of backlash, and how much Disney trusts that the people mean what they say. Time will tell, I guess.