Extending other 2042 properties

[janischa]

let's see, blt is to 2060, akv already comes close, okw has had an extension option
this leaves bwv, bcv and wl (and vb and hh)
now bcv seems to price a bunch higher than bwv (and wl) and while many say it's because of the pool and the smaller size of bcv, it seems to me there must be something missing.... could it be 'the masses' seem to know something somehow and we, disney nuts, not ? as the previous poster mentionned calls on inquiring about bwv extensions, maybe disney has been calling more dvc members that not necessarily are on these boards, indicating bwv may get dvc contract tiering soon as well, distinguising between extended and shorter contracts, while disney has no such intention for bcv.... which means that bwv they may intend to keep as a dvc resort but maybe they have totally new plans to completely redevelop bcv in 2042 ????? who knows ???????????

 

[sschneid]

Thank you all for sharing your perspectives!


I am hopeful that DVD will extend all of the properties to 2060 or beyond either through reasonable purchase add on options or (LOL) granting an extended RTU out of appreciation for all the years of paying maintenance (and the expectation of 18 more years of payments)

As an owner of both BLT, I'm concerned that in 2042, i will have fewer alternatives if all the 2042 properties were no longer available to me.

As an owner of BWV, I would be concerned that, as 2042 approaches, DVD is using my mainetenance dollars to prepare the property for either a re-sale of 50 year terms or some other purpose.

There is still 30 plus years of enjoyment left and i'm hoping to add on to that!

 

[tjkraz]

...granting an extended RTU out of appreciation for all the years of paying maintenance (and the expectation of 18 more years of payments)

Don't hold your breath.

As an owner of both BLT, I'm concerned that in 2042, i will have fewer alternatives if all the 2042 properties were no longer available to me.

Possible but unlikely. Unless the DVC concept is abandoned at some point in the next 30 years, chances are existing resorts will either be refurbished or redeveloped and sold again.

Of course, exact terms of their Club participation could change.

As an owner of BWV, I would be concerned that, as 2042 approaches, DVD is using my mainetenance dollars to prepare the property for either a re-sale of 50 year terms or some other purpose.

Disney would not be able to bill members for capital improvements projects which would occur after ownership ends. They would have some latitude in terms of maintaining guest rooms, but I doubt they will go to great lengths to update the rooms in the latter years of ownership.

One thing Disney will be fighting is owners walking away from their contracts and leaving Disney (and/or remaining owners) on the hook for the dues. IMO, it's far more likely that Disney will try to run the resorts with skeleton budgets in the last couple of years to discourage members from walking away.

If Disney does intend to turn around and re-sell resorts like BWV and BCV in 2042, buyers will expect the accommodations to be "like new". That will require either a dramatic refurbishment (at DVD's expense) or a complete tear-down and re-build.

 

[pilferk]

I suspect, as was pointed out earlier, that the OKW extension was, at least in part, a way to give disney something to sell during a "dead zone" for DVC. I think there are lots of other reasons, too (many mentioned here), but I don't think we'll see another extension until DVC is running low on inventory to sell. Right now...they've got plenty.

I'm in the boat of those that see the OKW extension as a flop. It didn't, at all, get the participation that DVC/Disney wanted to see or expected. It DID give them OWK "current" inventory to sell...but they're going to have to figure out a way to ensure they're not left holding mountains of 15 year contracts in 2042. I'm not sure how they'll do that without angering some segment of their customers. We'll see.....

 

[Dean]

Good Point!!

I really wasn't trying to be funny nor am I trying to belittle SSR. The truth is that SSR is a large resort that has less appeal to many than some of the other resorts. Yet it sold far better than many, ? most of us, thought it would. Why? likely because it's on property, it's Disney and it was the only game in town for several years. They simply didn't put the effort to actually sell HH or VB by getting potential buyers on property, by getting them into a sales presentation or by even gently encouraging them to buy. DVC doesn't have to by Westgate to sell timeshare, they simply have to do more than let the product sell itself. That's my concern about HI, either it will do poorly or they will change their tactics. None of this "but they're going after the asian market" will make any difference otherwise. While I personally prefer having a home resort, systems that don't have one have an inherent advantage over those that do. They could sell points from WDW and have them linked to anywhere they wanted. Club Intrawest, Bluegreen and the new Marriott system all work this way.

Thank you all for sharing your perspectives!


I am hopeful that DVD will extend all of the properties to 2060 or beyond either through reasonable purchase add on options or (LOL) granting an extended RTU out of appreciation for all the years of paying maintenance (and the expectation of 18 more years of payments)

As an owner of both BLT, I'm concerned that in 2042, i will have fewer alternatives if all the 2042 properties were no longer available to me.

As an owner of BWV, I would be concerned that, as 2042 approaches, DVD is using my mainetenance dollars to prepare the property for either a re-sale of 50 year terms or some other purpose.

There is still 30 plus years of enjoyment left and i'm hoping to add on to that!

The worst part from a system standpoint of having the expirations staggered is that in 2042, roughly 1/3 of the membership will drop out followed by others in 2054 & 2057 and so on. Think of it like the government. They have this dramatic and costly infrastructure, what happens when they have 1/3 less maint fees to fund it. I'm not too worried about them using the fees to enhance later value, that's pretty easy to police legally.

 

[Breyean]

I suspect, as was pointed out earlier, that the OKW extension was, at least in part, a way to give disney something to sell during a "dead zone" for DVC. I think there are lots of other reasons, too (many mentioned here), but I don't think we'll see another extension until DVC is running low on inventory to sell. Right now...they've got plenty.

I'm in the boat of those that see the OKW extension as a flop. It didn't, at all, get the participation that DVC/Disney wanted to see or expected. It DID give them OWK "current" inventory to sell...but they're going to have to figure out a way to ensure they're not left holding mountains of 15 year contracts in 2042. I'm not sure how they'll do that without angering some segment of their customers. We'll see.....

It will be interesting to see what happens at OKW between 2042 and 2057. I think a pp wrote they only had 15% of owners extend initially. I know Disney is selling OKW now for $90/point (my sister is considering it) which includes the extension.

But it seems there will be a LOT of current owners (or their kids) who will be out of their contracts in 2042. Which makes me wonder about what will happen to the the smaller percentage who will still be owners.

Say the DVC continues to attract new members. Say OKW is still seen as a desirable destination. Will there be enough new members, with different home resorts, to keep OKW vibrant? And, what will the maintenance be for the owners with the extended contracts? Will they close part of the resort and only operate part of it from 2042 though 2057? Or will the few owners left for those 15 years be socked with incredibly high fees?

 

[TisBit]

I really wasn't trying to be funny nor am I trying to belittle SSR. The truth is that SSR is a large resort that has less appeal to many than some of the other resorts. Yet it sold far better than many, ? most of us, thought it would. Why? likely because it's on property, it's Disney and it was the only game in town for several years.

Actually, I think the big perception problem of SSR was that members viewed it one way and the public viewed it another. Far more visitors to WDW actually saw SSR compared to any of the other DVC resorts of the time. Anyone who visited DTD saw the building across the lake and they looked very good. The sale of SSR to the public was an easy pitch for DVC and it was only after buying that members came to sites like this or maybe tried to exchange and suddenly heard that the resort they picked was "not good".

Unless someone stayed at BC, BW or even WL...they really didn't know much about those resorts. People that were staying in Mods and Values are not thinking about if a resort is walking distance to a park, because they have never experienced that.

 

[Dean]

Actually, I think the big perception problem of SSR was that members viewed it one way and the public viewed it another. Far more visitors to WDW actually saw SSR compared to any of the other DVC resorts of the time. Anyone who visited DTD saw the building across the lake and they looked very good. The sale of SSR to the public was an easy pitch for DVC and it was only after buying that members came to sites like this or maybe tried to exchange and suddenly heard that the resort they picked was "not good".

Unless someone stayed at BC, BW or even WL...they really didn't know much about those resorts. People that were staying in Mods and Values are not thinking about if a resort is walking distance to a park, because they have never experienced that.

I'm sure there are some who inquire because of that visual but even most of them are going to want to stay and own at other places all else being equal (price and expiration). Resale price and reservation availability are far more telling.

 

[csharpwv]

In regard to Saratoga - it's a resort that you have to spend time exploring to pick up the true character. Unlike most of the other resorts that have REALLY fancy lobbies, grand entrances/port cochere, and BIG themes - Saratoga Springs - to the naked eye - doesn't have an easy to detect theme.

Wilderness Lodge is easy to distinguish. Beach Club is easy to distinguish. Animal Kingdom Lodge is easy to distinguish.

What is a Saratoga Springs?

Until you take the time to learn the back story - the history of Saratoga Springs - there really isn't a theme.

You have to spend time at the resort - hear the trumpet sound effects at the pool - look at the fountains - realize why there is a Spa at the resort - and realize why AP has more health focused selections that the vast majority of Disney restaurants - you can't really tell what the theme is.

I'm not saying that Saratoga Springs, New York isn't a nice place - but it isn't on the radar of the vast majority of Americans. Especially as a vacation destination.

So did they really that a theme that isn't readily recognizable would be a major attraction?

I think it is a beautiful, and we really enjoyed our stay there - and can't wait to go back to stay in a Treehouse Villa!!!!! After all - that's why we bought points there! PLUS - the Grand Villas at Saratoga are by far some of THE most amazing on property. The GV's at SSR are one of the biggest reasons that made DVC a no brainer - OF COURSE I want to stay in one of those!!! They are absolutely gorgeous!!!

The theme is subtle - and doesn't hit you as soon as you pull up - so most people give it a pass!

 

[Dean]

In regard to Saratoga - it's a resort that you have to spend time exploring to pick up the true character. Unlike most of the other resorts that have REALLY fancy lobbies, grand entrances/port cochere, and BIG themes - Saratoga Springs - to the naked eye - doesn't have an easy to detect theme.

Wilderness Lodge is easy to distinguish. Beach Club is easy to distinguish. Animal Kingdom Lodge is easy to distinguish.

What is a Saratoga Springs?

Until you take the time to learn the back story - the history of Saratoga Springs - there really isn't a theme.

You have to spend time at the resort - hear the trumpet sound effects at the pool - look at the fountains - realize why there is a Spa at the resort - and realize why AP has more health focused selections that the vast majority of Disney restaurants - you can't really tell what the theme is.

I'm not saying that Saratoga Springs, New York isn't a nice place - but it isn't on the radar of the vast majority of Americans. Especially as a vacation destination.

So did they really that a theme that isn't readily recognizable would be a major attraction?

I think it is a beautiful, and we really enjoyed our stay there - and can't wait to go back to stay in a Treehouse Villa!!!!! After all - that's why we bought points there! PLUS - the Grand Villas at Saratoga are by far some of THE most amazing on property. The GV's at SSR are one of the biggest reasons that made DVC a no brainer - OF COURSE I want to stay in one of those!!! They are absolutely gorgeous!!!

The theme is subtle - and doesn't hit you as soon as you pull up - so most people give it a pass!

While I believe what you say has some accuracy, I believe you're over thinking it and that the demand is the demand, no matter the reasons. I believe that the location is simply not as desirable esp compared to BCV, BWV, BLT & VWL and that's the main reason. I think the second one is that many owners see the resort as less deluxe than those others mentioned. One could say similar things about OKW but the larger units and lower points compensate somewhat, though not completely. That's not to say it's not a very nice resort or that it doesn't have it's followers, just that comparatively, the demand is less overall. It's kind of like the saying that a bad day on vacation is better than a good day at work.

 

[Shamus]

I doubt it'll ever be worth $15 a point, much less accounting for the time value of the up front cost.

SERIOUSLY???? You don't think that a 15year OWK contract could sell for $15 in 2042?

I'll give you the fact that time value of money makes it a questionable call in 2007 and still today, but If anyone wants to offer a contract today to sell me their 2057 extended points in 2042 for $15 each, let me know where to sign.

 

[Dean]

SERIOUSLY???? You don't think that a 15year OWK contract could sell for $15 in 2042?

I'll give you the fact that time value of money makes it a questionable call in 2007 and still today, but If anyone wants to offer a contract today to sell me their 2057 extended points in 2042 for $15 each, let me know where to sign.

Certainly not in todays dollars, maybe not at all. With the MF liability and closing costs, you might not be able to give it away at that time.

 

[pilferk]

Say the DVC continues to attract new members. Say OKW is still seen as a desirable destination. Will there be enough new members, with different home resorts, to keep OKW vibrant? And, what will the maintenance be for the owners with the extended contracts? Will they close part of the resort and only operate part of it from 2042 though 2057? Or will the few owners left for those 15 years be socked with incredibly high fees?

Maintenance fees shouldn't be an issue. Disney has to appropriately spread the fees out "per point"...which means, even if the points are owned by Disney, DISNEY has to pay their share. And they're limited as to how high they can raise those fees (excluding tax increases) per year.

They may choose to close a portion of the resort...or simply rent those rooms out for cash (or offer them for exchange) since technically those points will be owned by them. Of course, that means there is a 900 lb gorilla with a lions share of points at the resort, which opens up a whole other can of worms (and disadvantages) for those that DID extend. It's hard to "compete" with an owner who not only owns a majority of the points in the system but ALSO controls the booking system, room assignment, etc.

The question is: What is Disney going to do with a huge number of 15 year contracts. They're either going to have to get more people to extend (and to do that, they're going to have to offer some sort of deal....which is going to tick off the customers who already bought the extension), they're going to have to offer ANOTHER extension in 2043 (so they can turn that slew of 15 year contracts into longer duration), or something else "creative". Whatever they choose...there's the potential to tick off a good sized piece of their customer base.

It will be VERY interesting to see how Disney handles this over the next 30 years.

 

[mjc2003]

This may be a "dumb" question, but I wonder if DVD has any legal obligation to offer extensions to 2042 expirations b/c they did it at OKW? I'm sure they don't, but it crossed my mind.

I also was told by my guide that there has been "a lot of talk" about BCV extensions, and she is expecting something quite soon. I spoke to her after we bought resale, so she had no skin in the game at that point. I told her we would not be adding on. She basically told that extensions would be offered, it was just a question of how long and how much.

 

[Chic]

My take on it was "why on earth would I pay to extend a contract in 32 years when I might not even be alive when the contract ends". I will be 92 in 2042. Call me in 2041 and I'll tell you then.

We own at SSR and I will be 90 years old when our contracts expire. If the 15 year extension is offered to SSR owners, I will absolutely buy. Why? I have two young children who I would will the contracts to so they can enjoy the "Magic" with their kids after I'm gone. Who knows what the cost per night will be for a Disney resort in the next 50 years. My kids love Disney and have been spoiled by the novelty of staying on property. I would not want to take this luxury away from my family. There's nothing like staying in the magic during a Disney vacation.

 

[Breyean]

We own at SSR and I will be 90 years old when our contracts expire. If the 15 year extension is offered to SSR owners, I will absolutely buy. Why? I have two young children who I would will the contracts to so they can enjoy the "Magic" with their kids after I'm gone. Who knows what the cost per night will be for a Disney resort in the next 50 years. My kids love Disney and have been spoiled by the novelty of staying on property. I would not want to take this luxury away from my family. There's nothing like staying in the magic during a Disney vacation.

Exactly. We bought in 1993 and our son was 8. He had just about every vacation for the next few years at OKW. Not only did we all love it, but you couldn't beat the free passes!

When the offered the extension, my wife and I weren't too sure - in 2042 we'd be around 90 also (knock on wood). But our son wanted to have the ability to use the points with his grandchildren, and since he was by then an adult with a great job, he paid for the extension.

It was such a great idea that when we were looking at adding on at Aulani recently, he paid for that as well, and told us to pick another resort to add on and use our money there. So now we're looking around the resales to see what grabs us.

 

[csharpwv]

Exactly. We bought in 1993 and our son was 8. He had just about every vacation for the next few years at OKW. Not only did we all love it, but you couldn't beat the free passes!

When the offered the extension, my wife and I weren't too sure - in 2042 we'd be around 90 also (knock on wood). But our son wanted to have the ability to use the points with his grandchildren, and since he was by then an adult with a great job, he paid for the extension.

It was such a great idea that when we were looking at adding on at Aulani recently, he paid for that as well, and told us to pick another resort to add on and use our money there. So now we're looking around the resales to see what grabs us.

If I were you I would definitely add on at Bay Lake Tower. I think that resort is going to be a hot spot for a long time due to its proximity to the Magic Kingdom. Lake View - Magic Kingdom View - you can't go wrong!

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Both VB and HH are great resorts in their own right, however, they were big DVC mistakes for many reasons. My view is that DVC assumed they would be just as successful selling them as they had OKW and BWV (early sales). DVC found themselves with a poor model for those sales and poorly equipped to compete with the Marriott's and other more aggressive timeshares sales systems. I'm convinced they could have easily sold them had them been more aggressive in scheduling and running the sales presentations. IMO, their better option from a sales standpoint would have been a trust system without a home resort, that way they could sell the off property resorts essentially as on property.

I've often thought that this "trust" system or something similar would be ideal for timeshares in the Southeast, or some set up of WDW for odd years, and the over property in the even years.

My sister would love Gatlinburg one year and Disney the next, or actually a combo of beach/mountains/Disney.

Although I understand where you are coming from, I do not agree with aggressive timeshare sales tactics, and think that Disney is beginning to go too far into the mainstream timeshare market.

 

[DisneyEater]

Do you think they will just stop building anything DVC for 5 or more years before 2042 to build up demand to resell these resorts?

 

[Chic]

Both VB and HH are great resorts in their own right, however, they were big DVC mistakes for many reasons.

I may be wrong but a part of me is a little concerned about the success of the new DVC resort in Hawaii.