Exchange Rate question???

[amystevekai&bump]

I know this is a 'how long is a piece of string question!!! but...

...I have a xmas cruise booked for 2010 and due to the rate dropping the amount I have left to pay has increased by roughly £2000!!

So I was just wondering, for those of you that follow the rates, and remember what has happened in the past - what do you think the rate is likely to peak at in the next 18 mths???

I don't really understand these things, but presumably if our economy recovers at the same rate as the Americans - then will the rates stay much as they are??? Or is there a chance that the pound will get stronger by the middle of 2010??

I know no one has any answers, but I was just wondering what rate you guys are waiting for in order to pay off holidays booked in US dollars??

 

[wayneg]

Amy, how much is the cruise? £2,000 increase
I am moaning ours has gone up to £300 to £1,800 for 7 night Western in August for 3 of us. At least I have $300 On board credit free to spend.

I will pay off when its due, whatever rate it is on that day with fee free card. I can't see it recovering in the next few months for me to pay off any earlier.

Its totally not possible to even guess where the rate is going, it could go down to $1/£1 and then you wish you had paid now, it could go back to £2/$1, I doubt either will happen in next 2 years. My guess is $1.40-$1.60 range but it is a total guess, not one person on the planet can know any better.

 

[wideeyes]

I am going to postpone our cruise till next year as I can't justify paying the increase when we are going to WDW twice this year and I don't think the rate is going to get better.

 

[amystevekai&bump]

Amy, how much is the cruise? £2,000 increase
I am moaning ours has gone up to £300 to £1,800 for 7 night Western in August for 3 of us. At least I have $300 On board credit free to spend.

I will pay off when its due, whatever rate it is on that day with fee free card. I can't see it recovering in the next few months for me to pay off any earlier.

Its totally not possible to even guess where the rate is going, it could go down to $1/£1 and then you wish you had paid now, it could go back to £2/$1, I doubt either will happen in next 2 years. My guess is $1.40-$1.60 range but it is a total guess, not one person on the planet can know any better.

Overall it cost $12,240 (and that was with onboard rebooking discount!! ) - and I've still got $9840 to pay!!

I am hoping the rate will come back up to nearer 1.60 and then I will pay it off straight away - I agree that its never going to climb much higher in that time - but fingers crossed it will creep back up rather than going the other way!!

 

[amystevekai&bump]

I am going to postpone our cruise till next year as I can't justify paying the increase when we are going to WDW twice this year and I don't think the rate is going to get better.

I'm hoping not to cancel - purely because my DH has been granted leave for Xmas (He is not normally allowed any holiday in December) - so this is really a one off chance to experience disney and cruising over the holidays. But I know what you mean - the prices are really hard to justify in this current climate aren't they??!!

 

[oceanscape]

the prices are really hard to justify in this current climate aren't they??!!

I totally agree!

Our WDW package for this Christmas/New Year is $12k as well, and the price in £GBP has shot through the roof. I think we might have to downgrade hotel because it's getting too much now

 

[oceanscape]

it could go back to £2/$1

I hope not!!!!

 

[amystevekai&bump]

I totally agree!

Our WDW package for this Christmas/New Year is $12k as well, and the price in £GBP has shot through the roof. I think we might have to downgrade hotel because it's getting too much now

where are you currently staying??

 

[oceanscape]

where are you currently staying??

RPC at the GF. It's been my dream to stay there in the Main Building (we were in a regular GV last time). But during the Christmas/New Year period there aren't any discounts and the rack rate is at the current exchange rate. I don't want to downgrade, but it seems crazy to be spending so much on one trip given the current exchange rate.....

 

[wayneg]

Overall it cost $12,240 (and that was with onboard rebooking discount!! ) - and I've still got $9840 to pay!!

I almost put in my post you must still have about $10,000 to pay but I thought $10,000 for a cruise surely not. I would have heart failure paying that out

I totally agree!

Our WDW package for this Christmas/New Year is $12k as well, and the price in £GBP has shot through the roof. I think we might have to downgrade hotel because it's getting too much now

We have booked with Disney.co.uk this time to fix the price(plus they had offer too good to resist) also got free dining so not exposed to poor £ as much this August, booked car last year before increases, flights in £'s so only way its really affecting us is for the cruise which I thankfully paid off half at $2/£1 and 2 nights hotel after cruise still to book.
So difficult paying anything in $ this year.

 

[wayneg]

I hope not!!!!

opps, I hope not also.

 

[oceanscape]

We have booked with Disney.co.uk this time to fix the price(plus they had offer too good to resist) also got free dining so not exposed to poor £ as much this August, booked car last year before increases, flights in £'s so only way its really affecting us is for the cruise which I thankfully paid off half at $2/£1 and 2 nights hotel after cruise still to book.
So difficult paying anything in $ this year.

I tried booking with Disney UK but they were telling me there was no availability for our dates, when Disney USA did have availability. Also, the cancellation and amendment policies are so much better with Disney USA (although, touch wood, it won't come to that....but who knows). Still, if we could have booked with Disney UK we would have done. Something I never thought I would be saying, since we last looked at the Disney UK prices a year or two ago and they were crazy....now they really are quite good!!

 

[amystevekai&bump]

RPC at the GF. It's been my dream to stay there in the Main Building (we were in a regular GV last time). But during the Christmas/New Year period there aren't any discounts and the rack rate is at the current exchange rate. I don't want to downgrade, but it seems crazy to be spending so much on one trip given the current exchange rate.....

I think it gets especially hard when you've been before and have your heart set on certain things, doesn't it??

When we were there last May, we (or I should say I!! ) spent a lot of timing looking at different hotels and room types, trying to plan the 'perfect' trip for next Christmas - now with the exchange rates so bad, the 'perfect' trip doesn't have the 'perfect' prices to match does it!!

 

[Shooby doo]

Amy I'm guessing for that amount you get to pilot it as well! My best guess of the average over all our holidays,would be in the region of $1.60,to get to 2:1 again the US economy would need to seriously dip & whilst that is not impossible ours would need to seriously increase & there the problem lies!If you-re lucky enough to get $1.60 then you would probably save about £1000 on todays rates. Good luck!
SD

 

[oceanscape]

I think it gets especially hard when you've been before and have your heart set on certain things, doesn't it??

When we were there last May, we (or I should say I!! ) spent a lot of timing looking at different hotels and room types, trying to plan the 'perfect' trip for next Christmas - now with the exchange rates so bad, the 'perfect' trip doesn't have the 'perfect' prices to match does it!!

Oh, I know exactly what you mean. It annoys me even more to know we could have the same trip in August for almost half the price......this is something I strongly considered......yet we've never been during the Christmas season before and this year will be our only chance for the next 4-5 years and I've always wanted to go during the festive season. But having the perfect trip at Christmas costs the earth, like you say. It's really hard. I'm just one of those annoying people who always wants the best. I know it's a "problem" about my compulsive personality, but I can't doing anything about it. Fortunately I can usually have the best (thanks to DH's credit card!!!) but this Xmas is not looking so promising.....ah well. I'll need to learn to "survive" in a cheaper room/hotel!! Just need to persuade myself it's better than not going at all!

Let's keep our fingers crossed the rate starts improving

 

[amystevekai&bump]

I almost put in my post you must still have about $10,000 to pay but I thought $10,000 for a cruise surely not. I would have heart failure paying that out


No I know - it's ridiculous isn't it!! I think I got caught up in the 'must book the day the prices are released' excitement, and didn't pay attention to all those zeros at the end of the price!!

I just can't face cancelling now - I did look at the 7 night xmas cruise as an alternative to the 11 night one, but it was the western itinerary which we have done before, and I couldn't get enthusiastic about it - It will just have to be bread and water for me for the next 22 months!!

 

[wayneg]

I tried booking with Disney UK but they were telling me there was no availability for our dates, when Disney USA did have availability. Also, the cancellation and amendment policies are so much better with Disney USA (although, touch wood, it won't come to that....but who knows). Still, if we could have booked with Disney UK we would have done. Something I never thought I would be saying, since we last looked at the Disney UK prices a year or two ago and they were crazy....now they really are quite good!!

Its £50pp to cancel what we got, I was hoping the £ would make a drastic recovery so I could cancel, I would be happy to pay £150 if it went back to $2/£1, then we could stay and eat offsite which we prefer but now looks like we are doing what we booked. 16 nights OKW, DDP +3x 21 day tickets £2,164. Last time I checked after the offer was over it was over £4,000 or on .com over £6,000

 

[oceanscape]

Its £50pp to cancel what we got, I was hoping the £ would make a drastic recovery so I could cancel, I would be happy to pay £150 if it went back to $2/£1, then we could stay and eat offsite which we prefer but now looks like we are doing what we booked. 16 nights OKW, DDP +3x 21 day tickets £2,164. Last time I checked after the offer was over it was over £4,000 or on .com over £6,000

Yeah, £150 isn't so bad. But for us it would be £300 (me, DH, 2 kids and Mum and Dad) which is a bit worse and not money I'd be happy about throwing away! You got one hell of a deal

 

[amystevekai&bump]

Amy I'm guessing for that amount you get to pilot it as well! My best guess of the average over all our holidays,would be in the region of $1.60,to get to 2:1 again the US economy would need to seriously dip & whilst that is not impossible ours would need to seriously increase & there the problem lies!If you-re lucky enough to get $1.60 then you would probably save about £1000 on todays rates. Good luck!
SD

you'd think wouldn't you!!

I'm hoping for 1.60 - then at least we might get to see some of WDW at Christmas too (I'm still planning on going to the poly, BWI and Hard Rock Hotel as well - but the way things are going it might be a motel 6 for us instead!!)

 

[wayneg]

but the way things are going it might be a motel 6 for us instead!!)

Don't even joke about it, our usual 2 weeks abroad this Easter has turned into 2 nights in Travelodges booked in sale end of last year, £27 for 2 nights. Only going abroad twice instead of 4 times.
Hopefully this year will be last we have to stick to school hols.