Essential/Nonessential vs. Safe/Not safe

[gotomu212]

I don't think we're really talking about reopening quicker than those other countries, though. Italy was about two weeks ahead of us on lockdowns (3/9 there, on or before 3/23 here for most of the states with significant numbers of cases), and they're starting to reopen now. If we followed suit, we'd be talking about the end of May - which I think is the timeframe most of us are talking about, since most states have existing lockdown orders in place at least that long. For Michigan, to start reopening at the end of this extension of the governor's order would be an almost exact echo of the Italian timeline.

Japan's data has been interesting because I would have expected population density and age to make the virus far more serious there than it has been so far, which absolutely points to race, obesity and other social/cultural differences as the reason it has been so bad here. But their situation is clearly trending in the wrong direction and Abe seems reluctant to issue a general lockdown, though I hear some prefectural goverments have issued their own orders. Their universal mask distribution idea is interesting, though. I wonder if we'd get better cooperation with public mask-wearing if we did something similar (they're distributing cloth masks, not medical-grade).

So my (maybe tinfoil hat?) theory about Japan is they were covering up the true scope of their cases until the decision was made to postpone the Olympics. As soon as the Olympic decision was made there were several articles about how all of a sudden they couldn’t keep people away from the cherry blossoms (even though they had been blooming the previous weeks when Olympics were still on). Then after that weekend of “viewing crowd concerns” they started reporting higher numbers. I don’t know if there was a sudden second wave or more likely they stopped trying to hide the number of cases and increased testing or reporting.

 

[choirfarm]

nm

 

[morgan98]

Did you see this today? Makes me want to cry. I mean it is good that the deaths went down, but the infections went up by 1100... And some of those will be deaths eventually.

• Deaths in Italy increased by 525 today, but this was down from 578 day before
• The number of infections increased to 3,786, from 2,667 the previous day

They also broke their daily testing record and ran 60,999 tests up from the previous record of 53,495 and up from the number of tests yesterday which was about 43,000. The more you test the more cases your find. Cases in intensive care though are finally below 3,000 nationwide and have been trending downward for 12 days now.

I follow Italy too - my mom was born there, I have family there and my husband has dual citizenship. Things are leveling off, albeit slowly. Some regions have started to open a few selected ships as well this week.

 

[choirfarm]

They also broke their daily testing record and ran 60,999 tests up from the previous record of 53,495 and up from the number of tests yesterday which was about 43,000. The more you test the more cases your find. Cases in intensive care though are finally below 3,000 nationwide and have been trending downward for we days now.

I follow Italy too - my mom was born there, I have family there and my husband has dual citizenship. Things are leveling off, albeit slowly. Some regions have started to open a few selected ships as well this week.

Ok, that makes me feel better.

 

[Brett Wyman]

So my (maybe tinfoil hat?) theory about Japan is they were covering up the true scope of their cases until the decision was made to postpone the Olympics. As soon as the Olympic decision was made there were several articles about how all of a sudden they couldn’t keep people away from the cherry blossoms (even though they had been blooming the previous weeks when Olympics were still on). Then after that weekend of “viewing crowd concerns” they started reporting higher numbers. I don’t know if there was a sudden second wave or more likely they stopped trying to hide the number of cases and increased testing or reporting.

We have close friends in Japan. Sendai. What the media reported seems to be pretty accurate based on their accounts.

 

[mom2rtk]

Quite a few colleges are already talking about being online only for the Fall.

I hope they're prepared for countless thousands to drop out or take a semester off.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I've asked this repeatedly and either gotten no answer or told that poverty isn't fatal. But when poverty leads to lack of housing, food, and healthcare, it is.

 

[mrodgers]

My wife and I had a similar discussion last night at dinner. We came to the conclusion that by closing off certain parts of stores, they are basically hoarding people together even more tightly in the areas that are open. She's right too, at least around here in any multi product stores such as Target, Walmart etc,

It's what I've been saying all along, but everyone attacks me for what I say.

Social distancing has brought us individuals physically closer than ever.

Close all the store except a few. Everyone in all the stores are now packed into a few stores.

Close the few stores early to clean, as if anyone really thinks some $8/hour people who are suppose to clean the entire store but probably a hap hazard swipe of a filthy rag across 10% of the surface. Now everyone that shopped from 8pm on until either closing or in the middle of the night have to go when the stores are already packed.

 

[kaytieeldr]

If the store is following the requirements of limiting the number of customers in a store, assuming they've adjusted for the open area of the store, overcrowding shouldn't be an issue.

Well, there are the one way aisles in a lot of stores. But selling only essentials "live" (Target near me has signs up advising shoppers to buy non-essentials using either order pickup, or directly from target.com) means shoppers won't be in the store as long, so shoppers waiting in line outside can get in and shop sooner.

This took place in NY. He was in and out of the hospital in approximately 24 hours. They told him he was safer recovering at home.

Yep. The longer someone is a hospital paient, the higher odds they will get sicker.

I had a whole response typed out, but never mind. This virus has people laser focused on one thing and one thing only.

Yes. People are focused on

Our local news had a segment of the LARGE furniture stores deemed as "non-essential" vs the liquor stores. I felt their pain. How busy (# of customers) does anyone think a furniture store is going to get? It would be so easy to stagger, just call ahead.

Bob's in running an ad about contactless delivery and curbside pickup. Having purchased furniture online from a reputable local chain, I would have to give virtual furniture shopping a bigs thumbs down, but it can be done.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Before the virus we had anywhere between 30-45 million Americans living in poverty, depending on whose stats you trust. Those folks have been living most of their lives without reliable housing, food sources and healthcare. But today, because of this virus, suddenly people in America who did not even think about about the impoverished care what happens to them?

The reality - most of the newcomers to this concern only really care about their personal financial condition, not "poverty in America". They are not really worried about the people who will continue to live in poverty for the rest of their lives when we get back to work. They just want to get back to work and avoid that situation personally.

That's not a bad thing, but let's stop pretending that this is really about concern for the impoverished. Those who didn't care about them 6 months ago, won't care about them 6 months from now. They will move on with their lives.

 

[sam_gordon]

nah, nevermind.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

okay

 

[sam_gordon]

I’ll have to look for it. So far tonight’s address is not being interrupted by protesters

Here's the interview. Based on the length, I think it's the whole thing...
https://www.lex18.com/news/coronavi...gov-besear-to-talk-about-coronavirus-response

 

[monkeydawn]

OK but what's to prevent people from hotspot areas from showing up in the open areas of the country just because they can be less restricted than at home? How do you prevent people from areas still dealing with peaks from traveling to areas past their peak? You can't.

That is an issue in our area. 1/3 of the positive cases and deaths (ICU occupancy numbers arent released but I figure they are probably similar) are from travelers that came here. They came from areas with far greater than 3X our ICU capacity. It's upsetting to think another wave could be coming.

I'm frankly ignoring China because I don't think anything they've done is instructive - either it can't be done here (welding people into their homes, shutting down domestic travel) or is of dubious veracity (case counts that don't include asymptomatic positives). But Germany is taking steps to reopen, Italy is taking steps to reopen, Japan did some reopening and is now into a second-wave lockdown phase. And Germany and Japan both controlled the initial wave far better than we have, so they very likely have higher vulnerability to second and subsequent surges of infection than we will.

Is there somewhere in the US where they are testing everyone? Here you have to have a fever and/ or at least one other known COVID symptom and have known contact with a positive to get a test. Still. I think most places arent including asymptomatic positives simply because they arent testing them.

 

[NYCgrrl]

That is an issue in our area. 1/3 of the positive cases and deaths (ICU occupancy numbers arent released but I figure they are probably similar) are from travelers that came here. They came from areas with far greater than 3X our ICU capacity. It's upsetting to think another wave could be coming.



Is there somewhere in the US where they are testing everyone? Here you have to have a fever and/ or at least one other known COVID symptom and have known contact with a positive to get a test. Still. I think most places arent including asymptomatic positives simply because they arent testing them.

There are many places in the country where testing is happening but nowhere that I know of that everyone is eligible. To me, this is the crux of the current problem as well as how accurate the testing is.
For my sight it's just talk talk talk in a circle until the testing issues are resolved.

 

[2102raven]

The reality - most of the newcomers to this concern only really care about their personal financial condition, not "poverty in America". They are not really worried about the people who will continue to live in poverty for the rest of their lives when we get back to work. They just want to get back to work and avoid that situation personally.

Preach! they’re actually worried about their canceled vacation & when they can reschedule

 

[Colleen27]

Meanwhile German schools will begin to reopen May 4th.

Yeah, but they're testing. Our leadership just wants us to sit home and wait for this to magically disappear (or for a vaccine to be developed, depending on which leaders we listen to).

So my (maybe tinfoil hat?) theory about Japan is they were covering up the true scope of their cases until the decision was made to postpone the Olympics. As soon as the Olympic decision was made there were several articles about how all of a sudden they couldn’t keep people away from the cherry blossoms (even though they had been blooming the previous weeks when Olympics were still on). Then after that weekend of “viewing crowd concerns” they started reporting higher numbers. I don’t know if there was a sudden second wave or more likely they stopped trying to hide the number of cases and increased testing or reporting.

That's been a common theory but my daughter is in regular contact with both of her host families from her time in Japan, one in suburban Tokyo and the other in a rural area on the Sea of Japan, and both feel like the media has been doing a good job capturing the reality of things there. They're frustrated with the relatively low rate of testing, but the net positive rate among those who are tested is lower than most of the U.S., which supports the idea that the virus is much less widespread there. But they are a mask-wearing culture, especially through the winter, and according to DD's host father, people and businesses are being very compliant with voluntary measures intended to reduce movement and limit spread.

And probably not a significant factor but maybe still relevant to recent headlines - they're a culture that doesn't wear their street shoes indoors. With the recent article about health care professionals tracking the virus out of their hospitals on the soles of their shoes, the culture of leave your shoes at the door probably doesn't hurt.

Did you see this today? Makes me want to cry. I mean it is good that the deaths went down, but the infections went up by 1100... And some of those will be deaths eventually.

• Deaths in Italy increased by 525 today, but this was down from 578 day before
• The number of infections increased to 3,786, from 2,667 the previous day

I saw. I've been watching Italy's numbers because they are so far ahead of us and are the first Western nation to be seriously hit, and their daily case counts have been bouncing around that 3000 mark for a while. It appears to be the floor that their current level of lockdown can produce. But their percentage of tests that come back positive is falling, which is a good sign.

I hope they're prepared for countless thousands to drop out or take a semester off.

They aren't. DD can't even get a clear answer as to how that would affect her financial aid.

Is there somewhere in the US where they are testing everyone? Here you have to have a fever and/ or at least one other known COVID symptom and have known contact with a positive to get a test. Still. I think most places arent including asymptomatic positives simply because they arent testing them.

Nowhere is testing everyone. But there's a difference between missing cases and intentionally misreporting the results of tests that are administered.

In most countries, the results of every test are being reported according to the actual outcome of the test without regard to how serious the symptoms are in patients who tested positive. The articles I've read weren't real clear on how China counted asymptomatic positives, whether they were counted as negative or simply excluded from testing counts entirely, but health officials there have been openly saying that if a test came back positive on a patient without symptoms - say, someone seeking treatment for another ailment that was tested as a precautionary measure - that positive was not included in the official tally of case numbers.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Before the virus we had anywhere between 30-45 million Americans living in poverty, depending on whose stats you trust. Those folks have been living most of their lives without reliable housing, food sources and healthcare. But today, because of this virus, suddenly people in America who did not even think about about the impoverished care what happens to them?

The reality - most of the newcomers to this concern only really care about their personal financial condition, not "poverty in America". They are not really worried about the people who will continue to live in poverty for the rest of their lives when we get back to work. They just want to get back to work and avoid that situation personally.

That's not a bad thing, but let's stop pretending that this is really about concern for the impoverished. Those who didn't care about them 6 months ago, won't care about them 6 months from now. They will move on with their lives.

Right on.

 

[choirfarm]

mom2rtk said:
I hope they're prepared for countless thousands to drop out or take a semester off.

They aren't. DD can't even get a clear answer as to how that would affect her financial aid.


Yes, can I just say with my baby who is a senior going 12 hours away to school in the fall ( maybe) this is by far the most stressful college launch ever. I did this with my boys and it was fine. This is a nightmare. I feel for the schools. If students cannot live in dorms; they cannot have sports; they cannot have plays/musicals, they are going to lose so much money. We don't know what we are going to do and may not know until late July. I hate this.

 

[Colleen27]

Yes, can I just say with my baby who is a senior going 12 hours away to school in the fall ( maybe) this is by far the most stressful college launch ever. I did this with my boys and it was fine. This is a nightmare. I feel for the schools. If students cannot live in dorms; they cannot have sports; they cannot have plays/musicals, they are going to lose so much money. We don't know what we are going to do and may not know until late July. I hate this.

As bad as this has been for DD, who had to pack up her life on campus in San Francisco and fly home to Detroit on about 36 hours notice, I'm so grateful this didn't happen a year sooner. I feel so bad for all of this year's seniors who lost out on so many milestones and now don't even know if they'll be able to attend the colleges they worked so hard to get into.

I don't know how the colleges are going to manage. Just about everybody in DD's biology department group (all non-medical/non-nursing bio majors) is talking about taking next semester or next year off because they aren't confident in their abilities to learn organic chem and advanced bio labs remotely, but I'm sure the school cannot afford to take that hit. They're probably not going to have a choice, though - California is likely to be one of the most cautious states about reopening and what I've been hearing from their governor makes me think at best they'll be allowed to run small class sizes with no dorms, no campus activities, and no food service... not much help to students from out of state who can't afford off-campus housing in the Bay Area.