easywdw crowd calendars?

[Anal Annie]

So only fans need post? Come on now... That PP was commenting on Josh's own post about the calendars, and his dig at TP. Fair game to comment on that, no?

Anybody can post as long as there's no mud slinging. I said they should play nice. If they're gonna "start something" then I'd prefer that they just move on.

 

[hiroMYhero]

Dropping in to remind everyone to please follow the DIS Guidelines which apply to all posters.

Discussions of other websites/blogs or specific links are allowed and opinions expressed in the 3rd person are not slight personal attacks.

If you don't agree with a poster, the "Ignore" feature can be easily accessed by tapping the avatar or screenname of a poster. Retaliatory remarks can be considered as personal attacks.

Please remain on the topic of crowd calendar discussion.

Questions specifically for Josh can be asked on his site:
http://www.easywdw.com/forums/forum.php

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Anybody can post as long as there's no mud slinging. I said they should play nice. If they're gonna "start something" then I'd prefer that they just move on.

I sometimes wish people really looking to "start something" would move off the boards, but that won't happen... whether we start the thread or not!!

I think PP was expressing a legitimate POV -- one Josh INVITED with his site post -- and one DIRECTLY in line with the kind of dialogue that Josh starts with some people on Twitter who dare to not be his fan. The root here is not that PP, IMHO.

Wrt the calendars, as I've said, I've never found them particularly useful expect in the VERY BIG picture -- deciding roughly when to go. I get not wanting to produce these calendars these days with the increased uncertainty -- makes sense to me.

 

[Anal Annie]

I sometimes wish people really looking to "start something" would move off the boards, but that won't happen... whether we start the thread or not!!

I think PP was expressing a legitimate POV -- one Josh INVITED with his site post -- and one DIRECTLY in line with the kind of dialogue that Josh starts with some people on Twitter who dare to not be his fan. The root here is not that PP, IMHO.

I don't do Twitter so IMO that's irrelevant here. And I wasn't asking who thinks Josh's tweets are inappropriate.... I appreciate Josh's input here but he should also play nice if he participates. Nobody should be poopooing anybody else.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I don't do Twitter so IMO that's irrelevant here. And I wasn't asking who thinks Josh's tweets are inappropriate.... I appreciate Josh's input here but he should also play nice if he participates. Nobody should be poopooing anybody else.

I was sharing with you some of the background and context that likely led to PP's post. Since you aren't on Twitter, you would not be aware. And this is a topic that is not new to DIS, btw.

Not sure what more there is to say about the fact that he's no longer producing a calendar -- which I think makes sense in the current environment -- pretty straightforward -- so I'll move along!

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Josh, you mention South America as having an impact on attendance. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but do you think the amount of planning created by MDE has also caused a decrease in attendance?

No, one thing to keep in mind is that like with most companies, the corporate goals of the Walt Disney Company are often at odds with its customers. FastPass+ certainly had its growing pains as most of us probably had a FastPass+ reservation mysteriously vanish or a resort room door that failed to open upon "touching Mickey to Mickey." But while the launch was expensive and drawn out and plagued with issues, the system is working exactly as designed - to redistribute crowds, ration experiences, and keep as much money on property as possible. That's the ultimate end game.

And all of that is to the detriment of your typical "power user." A common sentiment is that someone used to be able to pull legacy FASTPASSes and ride Toy Story five times and Rock n Roller Coaster four times without waiting very long and can now ride both twice per day so long as they constantly refresh My Disney Experience trying to snipe someone else's canceled FastPass+ in the afternoon. And because they used to be able to do nine things and can now do four things that FP+ is a "failure." But while the end user may be less satisfied, that is exactly what Disney is intending and raises guest satisfaction ratings as those experiences are now given to someone that either wouldn't have been able to experience something or would have waited much longer in standby while the super user heads in to ride first via FASTPASS.

I think if South America was still strong that we would be singing a different tune about the summer. Here is a chart of their currency over the last five years:

Their currency compared to the US dollar is worth less than half of what it was three years ago, which obviously makes a U.S. trip twice as expensive for them. Add heavy taxes on group travel and we've seen a near elimination of the South American tour group. South America would have made up about 25% of attendance over the summer. That number is going to be dramatically lower. On the last earnings call, Iger said that those numbers were canceled out by an increase in attendance from other areas, but that seems like wishful thinking.

But it will be interesting to see what the future holds. I don't think there is much to the idea that Disney is making an active effort to reduce attendance. They are not making all of these improvements in infrastructure - expanding the road outside Disney Springs to ten lanes and adding 100 stores and 15+ restaurants, building new on ramps and expanding park entrances, building more parking lots at Animal Kingdom and Magic Kingdom, adding Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land and Avatar Land and Rivers of Light and Frozen and Galactic Spectacular etc. because the goal is to have fewer people walk through the gates every day. Why would you add a third theater to Soarin' and a third track to Toy Story if you were trying to reduce the number of people in line at the same time? I think you can blame the price increases on the fact that they need to make more money on fewer people to meet earnings estimates. I'm not sure that it's the other way around.

But we will see. This is the kind of thing that Mother says keeps me employed. On the other hand an inability to create an accurate crowd calendar with the limited resources available might soon put me out on the streets.

 

[Nancyg56]

This is why my personal rule of thumb is that, regardless to whether it's an Internet posting or an e-mail or an IM, when I talk about someone I assume that whatever I say will eventually either be read by that person or reach them second-hand. So I try and make sure that whatever I say sticks to the facts and is as defensible as possible.

Me too.I know that I can express a contrary opinion without being nasty

 

[Mr. Drauer]

thanks for breaking down the economics Josh. I am sure that things are likely to remain in flux until ESPN either stabilizes its numbers or gets into a new model, as it seems like that is the dominant topic at the earnings calls. Either way, i have only recently come upon your site and have found it informative and right up my alley in the humor department.

 

[miamimi]

No, one thing to keep in mind is that like with most companies, the corporate goals of the Walt Disney Company are often at odds with its customers. FastPass+ certainly had its growing pains as most of us probably had a FastPass+ reservation mysteriously vanish or a resort room door that failed to open upon "touching Mickey to Mickey." But while the launch was expensive and drawn out and plagued with issues, the system is working exactly as designed - to redistribute crowds, ration experiences, and keep as much money on property as possible. That's the ultimate end game.

And all of that is to the detriment of your typical "power user." A common sentiment is that someone used to be able to pull legacy FASTPASSes and ride Toy Story five times and Rock n Roller Coaster four times without waiting very long and can now ride both twice per day so long as they constantly refresh My Disney Experience trying to snipe someone else's canceled FastPass+ in the afternoon. And because they used to be able to do nine things and can now do four things that FP+ is a "failure." But while the end user may be less satisfied, that is exactly what Disney is intending and raises guest satisfaction ratings as those experiences are now given to someone that either wouldn't have been able to experience something or would have waited much longer in standby while the super user heads in to ride first via FASTPASS.

I think if South America was still strong that we would be singing a different tune about the summer. Here is a chart of their currency over the last five years:

Their currency compared to the US dollar is worth less than half of what it was three years ago, which obviously makes a U.S. trip twice as expensive for them. Add heavy taxes on group travel and we've seen a near elimination of the South American tour group. South America would have made up about 25% of attendance over the summer. That number is going to be dramatically lower. On the last earnings call, Iger said that those numbers were canceled out by an increase in attendance from other areas, but that seems like wishful thinking.

But it will be interesting to see what the future holds. I don't think there is much to the idea that Disney is making an active effort to reduce attendance. They are not making all of these improvements in infrastructure - expanding the road outside Disney Springs to ten lanes and adding 100 stores and 15+ restaurants, building new on ramps and expanding park entrances, building more parking lots at Animal Kingdom and Magic Kingdom, adding Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land and Avatar Land and Rivers of Light and Frozen and Galactic Spectacular etc. because the goal is to have fewer people walk through the gates every day. Why would you add a third theater to Soarin' and a third track to Toy Story if you were trying to reduce the number of people in line at the same time? I think you can blame the price increases on the fact that they need to make more money on fewer people to meet earnings estimates. I'm not sure that it's the other way around.

But we will see. This is the kind of thing that Mother says keeps me employed. On the other hand an inability to create an accurate crowd calendar with the limited resources available might soon put me out on the streets.

Thanks Josh. I didn't realize that WDW was so dependent on South American tour groups.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Thanks Josh. I didn't realize that WDW was so dependent on South American tour groups.

Yes, particularly in June/July which is their winter time. They are the third largest international group to visit Florida and their numbers were already down last year and will likely be down even more significantly this year: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busi...a-tourism-statistics-2015-20160325-story.html. But while a 10% or 200,000 person drop is a big deal, I think their trips are likely much shorter in duration than they would have been a few years ago and they are looking at spending far less money. So instead of a family or group visiting for 12 days and doing Disney/Universal/SeaWorld they are more likely choosing two of the three over 7 days, which would result in bigger attendance drops at both sets of parks. But we'll see what 2016 numbers look like early next year.

 

[bryanb]

I chuckle when I see people get really anxious about what they'll be eating and riding at 11:50am on February 5, 2017. I don't even know what I'm going to have for lunch tomorrow or whether I'm going to take my next trip in a month or a year.
There's the argument that "Disney forced us to plan like this." And to some extent that's true. But it's absolutely possible to show up today with no plans and have a great time.

As for crowd levels, I usually hop between 2-3 parks per day during my trips. While I do perceive that the crowds can vary a little bit from park-to-park, I haven't found (in my anecdotal experience) that any one park is disastrously more crowded than others... and never even so much so that it would create even a twinge of angst or regret over planning. There are probably occasional exceptions, like special events, that really make a difference. But for the most part I'd probably be happy in any of the parks on any given day, even without hoppers.

 

[TeamEvansGo]

Let's play nice here kids or the mods will close the thread!! The stone thrower in this case who obviously wasn't ever a fan of Josh's site should just quietly move on to another topic somewhere. Most of us on this thread seem to have been fans of his crowd calendars - which as a reminder was what this thread was started about. I was looking to see if he had any intentions of updating or continuing with them. It wasn't an invitation for easywdw haters to start complaining about his personal sense of humor.

Moving on - I spent some time over last weekend trying to make my own calendar for January. HAHAHAHAHA! What a pain in the rear! I now miss Josh's input more than ever!!

I have a right to express my opinion just as much as you do. That's why it's called a "forum". Thanks for your input, but you don't get to censor me.

 

[Princess Mulan]

No, one thing to keep in mind is that like with most companies, the corporate goals of the Walt Disney Company are often at odds with its customers. FastPass+ certainly had its growing pains as most of us probably had a FastPass+ reservation mysteriously vanish or a resort room door that failed to open upon "touching Mickey to Mickey." But while the launch was expensive and drawn out and plagued with issues, the system is working exactly as designed - to redistribute crowds, ration experiences, and keep as much money on property as possible. That's the ultimate end game.

And all of that is to the detriment of your typical "power user." A common sentiment is that someone used to be able to pull legacy FASTPASSes and ride Toy Story five times and Rock n Roller Coaster four times without waiting very long and can now ride both twice per day so long as they constantly refresh My Disney Experience trying to snipe someone else's canceled FastPass+ in the afternoon. And because they used to be able to do nine things and can now do four things that FP+ is a "failure." But while the end user may be less satisfied, that is exactly what Disney is intending and raises guest satisfaction ratings as those experiences are now given to someone that either wouldn't have been able to experience something or would have waited much longer in standby while the super user heads in to ride first via FASTPASS.

I think if South America was still strong that we would be singing a different tune about the summer. Here is a chart of their currency over the last five years:

Their currency compared to the US dollar is worth less than half of what it was three years ago, which obviously makes a U.S. trip twice as expensive for them. Add heavy taxes on group travel and we've seen a near elimination of the South American tour group. South America would have made up about 25% of attendance over the summer. That number is going to be dramatically lower. On the last earnings call, Iger said that those numbers were canceled out by an increase in attendance from other areas, but that seems like wishful thinking.

But it will be interesting to see what the future holds. I don't think there is much to the idea that Disney is making an active effort to reduce attendance. They are not making all of these improvements in infrastructure - expanding the road outside Disney Springs to ten lanes and adding 100 stores and 15+ restaurants, building new on ramps and expanding park entrances, building more parking lots at Animal Kingdom and Magic Kingdom, adding Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land and Avatar Land and Rivers of Light and Frozen and Galactic Spectacular etc. because the goal is to have fewer people walk through the gates every day. Why would you add a third theater to Soarin' and a third track to Toy Story if you were trying to reduce the number of people in line at the same time? I think you can blame the price increases on the fact that they need to make more money on fewer people to meet earnings estimates. I'm not sure that it's the other way around.

But we will see. This is the kind of thing that Mother says keeps me employed. On the other hand an inability to create an accurate crowd calendar with the limited resources available might soon put me out on the streets.

Thanks, Josh, for another detailed, informative and measured (pun intended) response! Let's hope that you can stay off the streets; I don't want to imagine a Disneyworld without easywdw!

 

[MonaMN]

I see easyWDW and Touring Plans as two sides of the same coin. Just as there are both theoretical and empirical physicists, macro- and micro-economics, and quantitative and qualitative methods, there are multiple ways to approach crowd prediction.

Touring Plans uses a very quantitative approach. They rely heavily on things that can be measured or stated precisely and for which they have past data. This means that at times they're consciously excluding data that they can't quantify. Building statistical models is very difficult, and unlike things such as election polling, they don't have the resources of a organization such as Gallup, and they're trying to predict things six months out. Statistical models have the potential for being very reliable for things like elections or weather forecasting, but no one expects them to work that far in advance. Plus, TP is missing (I assume) some extremely useful data, such as the rate of bookings and ticket sales, data that Disney has access to. They might infer it from things like ADR availability, but that's tricky and difficult. Finally, they're really predicting just one aspect of crowds, and that's wait times for rides. That's important, but it excludes things like meet and greet times, QS restaurant times, and the overall feel of crowds for parades and such. I think they err in calling their predictions a crowd calendar instead of a ride wait calendar. But they're clearly not making things up. To whatever extent they're wrong (and I don't have the data to judge any of these crowd sides), the most that could be said is that their approach isn't successful or their models are wrong. Accusing them of making things up, in the absence of any evidence that they're lying about their methods, is uncalled for.

Easywdw and other sites use a very qualitative approach, on more of a macro level than micro. They look at the issues that may influence decisions, correlate them (informally, but still correctly) against reported results, and reason out good conclusions. They can more easily incorporate events such as ROL being announced, and then deferred, into their predictions. Historically, they've relied on the premise that only a small percentage actually follow their recommendations (so does TP), but in this day of social media, I don't know that the premise is still true. One could claim that what they're doing is educated guessing (thus making the "making things up" attribution more literally accurate), but that would be an injustice if perceived as a criticism. Sometimes educated guesses are not only correct, but they're also the most reasonable way to make predictions.

If any one of these sites, or an independent party, were to do a sound comparative analysis of the reliability of their predictions, that would be good. But it's not possible as long as the only result data we have are the reports on social media or the personal judgments of their own employees. In the absence of such an analysis, it's best that they avoid throwing any stones at each other, as their houses are all made of glass.

I would quibble with this a bit. It seems to me that Touring Plans is nearly data only, while EasyWDW has been data + experience/in person testing. If you read regularly, there is a lot of wait time data reviewed at EasyWDW as well, but it is coupled with insights based on visits. Touring Plans seems to rely on such a big team of people to cover a whole lot of topics, and the quality suffers. I don't know how many errors I have read in their info that is outdated. But some of their info is still helpful, so I use a combo of both, with a couple others tossed in too.

But no one couples snark and knowledge together like Josh, which makes it more fun for me. I like a good bit of snark!

 

[miamimi]

I chuckle when I see people get really anxious about what they'll be eating and riding at 11:50am on February 5, 2017. I don't even know what I'm going to have for lunch tomorrow or whether I'm going to take my next trip in a month or a year.
There's the argument that "Disney forced us to plan like this." And to some extent that's true. But it's absolutely possible to show up today with no plans and have a great time.

I think it really depends on what your family considers 'Must do's " while visiting WDW. If my family was happy with a FP+ for SE, then I guess it wouldn't be an issue. But they want to experience FEA and Soarin' without waiting in long SB lines. So yes, planning is important to my family.

 

[mom2rtk]

I think it really depends on what your family considers 'Must do's " while visiting WDW. If my family was happy with a FP+ for SE, then I guess it wouldn't be an issue. But they want to experience FEA and Soarin' without waiting in long SB lines. So yes, planning is important to my family.

Yeah, not planning works fine if you don't have specific things your family insists on doing. I guess what it boils down to is whether you are willing to just wing it and would be happy to miss some of your favorites. I know I wouldn't be happy with that. Nor should I have to be for what they are charging these days. The price keeps going up, and I seem to need to settle for less.

 

[bryanb]

I think it really depends on what your family considers 'Must do's " while visiting WDW. If my family was happy with a FP+ for SE, then I guess it wouldn't be an issue. But they want to experience FEA and Soarin' without waiting in long SB lines. So yes, planning is important to my family.

Yeah, not planning works fine if you don't have specific things your family insists on doing. I guess what it boils down to is whether you are willing to just wing it and would be happy to miss some of your favorites. I know I wouldn't be happy with that. Nor should I have to be for what they are charging these days. The price keeps going up, and I seem to need to settle for less.

I can accept that perspective; I guess I'm realizing everyone is different! My touring style would probably drive someone crazy if they had those must-do's. What I find relaxing, someone else might find enormously irritating!

 

[pooch]

Joining the discussion here. I have to say it is becoming harder and harder to maintain my Disney Expert status in the midst of the mess that these late schedule changes have created. I am something of a WDW veteran so I can zig and zag with the best of them on my own. But I am taking my beloved grandsons next year and I know I'm going to make myself nuts over planning a trip they will love. DD works at US/IOA and I am so tempted to just stay there & only do 1-2 days at WDW.

And FWIW, I am a huge Josh fan. Bring on the snark!!!

 

[MinMou]

Joining the discussion here. I have to say it is becoming harder and harder to maintain my Disney Expert status in the midst of the mess that these late schedule changes have created. I am something of a WDW veteran so I can zig and zag with the best of them on my own. But I am taking my beloved grandsons next year and I know I'm going to make myself nuts over planning a trip they will love. DD works at US/IOA and I am so tempted to just stay there & only do 1-2 days at WDW.

And FWIW, I am a huge Josh fan. Bring on the snark!!!

I know you are tempted, but don't give in! Your DGSs deserve at least 3 days, so they can see 4 parks. Even if it means you pick out only one or 2 things to do in each place and take pot luck on what else you accomplish, there is too much magic in those parks to give up on them.

 

[cuchu2005]

Same here! Our last visit was in Nov 2014. I am from Argentina and we've been to WDW and DLR a lot. Now I'm re-learning my touring skills. We are going back in November-December, so chalk 4 more up to South America.

BTW, Josh's site great. I love his style. Keep it up.

Mx