When you ask about the chances being better, do you mean is the capacity closure more likely for May 22nd and the following weekend than for Easter? I think there will be a surge on the evening of May 22nd when the new shows debut, but it's worth noting that only the Premium/Premier and Deluxe APs are valid. So while I think there are a lot of guests that will want to see the new shows, I don't know know how many SoCal and SoCal Select AP holders will spring for a one-day ticket when they can just wait until the next week/weekend to see the shows. Also, a lot of schools are still in session, so it's not quite the same as July 4th and Christmas when most folks are out of school or has a holiday. So, no, I don't really think Memorial Day weekend is likely to see capacity closures. It's also worth noting that it's pretty rare for the park to reach the full capacity closures. More often, it's one of the earlier phases that is reached (e.g., stop selling tickets, etc.) and when the parks do close due to capacity, they don't say closed for the entire day.
I think there is chance that the parks will reach at least the lowest phase the phased closures on July 17th (the actual anniversary day).