If you think you may pay cash for your missing night, you should consider reserving the missing night through
DVC if they have it as a cash night at the Grand. You would call DVC member services for this and if available it's usually 25% off. There may be better rates through Disney with AP etc, on rooms already showing on the Disney website, but I haven't kept up with that.
Then continue to stalk. If your stalking or waitlist shows, you can cancel the DVC cash room, if there is one. (I can't remember if it's 5 days or 8 days before and I just did this yesterday).
For Easter at the Grand (we were there 2024 Easter) availability kept changing a lot. I pieced together a Big Pine Key room for 5 nights and then moved to CL level at AKJ, but saw lots of deluxe studios as well come and go. I also spent a boatload of points which I'm not used to.
Yesterday morning I tweaked my 'starts the end of next week' trip. I dropped Halloween night (my last night) and called MS. Booked the night at Hilton Head on cash. Need a little Hilton Head fix. (Walk on the beach, eat some shrimp and grits, chat with the CM's.) I love the Low Country and lived a short while in Charleston in another life.
This trip is not recognizable anymore. It was moved from mid-November to last week of October with waitlist and stalking. I think I started messing with it end of September. The key here is for this trip I only have to please me.