I am in the "only accounts that pretty much exclusively rent will be addressed" camp as well with my expectations.
We don't know if the top 10 bad actor LLCs have 500,000 points between them or 80,000 points. If they have 500,000 points that could be equal to the next 50 commercial renters so diminishing returns for DVC legal time.
What I don't see happing:
1. Labeling all renting as commercial and banning it
2. New rules like preventing lead guest changes
3. DVC admitting anything they do is a change in policy
What I do see happening:
People who rent all their points (regardless of number of points) each year getting questioned / investigated probably starting in 2027 so they have data. Reason: In order to go after the big renters they have to apply a consistent policy and can not selectively enforce. A 800 point commercial renter is just as guilty as an 8,000 point commercial renter of breaking 1 rule , however, a 10,000 point renter went afoul of 2 rules.
Smaller accounts will get warnings, and potentially have internet booking privileges suspended their account flagged so they have to verify with MS each reservation. In addition, that puts them at a 1 hour disadvantage for booking.
Anyone proven to have over 8,000 points hidden by LLCs will be forced to sell.