I don't know why you'd ignore incentives entirely. $226 is a well established current price for 160 Riviera points. I'm fine disregarding niche incentives that could take it even lower. Going up to 200 points will take it lower. And current members make out even better--and audience that buys points, too.
(Side note: Even at $235 per point, it shows the member breaking even with 15 years remaining and saving more than $167k. I wouldn't call that razor thin. Especially when factoring in member perks, control over reservations, ability to book earlier, ability to re-sell, etc. If you're projecting someone always renting 11 months out to get Value or Standard rooms, probably need some accommodation for time value there, too, given that they're paying out the funds consistently so far in advance. And some greater allowance for
travel insurance or lost funds on those occasions when a rental trip gets derailed over the span of 40 years.)
I'm not in any position to say you're absolutely wrong, but I don't really agree with that logic. The professional renters they're cracking down on are making $25...$30...$35 per point. Which in comparison makes buying look even better.
Personally I think this is mostly about member satisfaction. Not that a massive number of people are immediately going to start getting what they want. But if you could somehow eliminate EVERY single AKV Value studio currently being held, and every single Riviera Standard studio, every single Boardwalk Standard Studio, and so on...that's a lot of members getting rooms they aren't getting today.
Yes, there may be some other ulterior motive deep down. But in many ways this is like popcorn buckets. Disney doesn't HAVE to limit purchases to 2 per person. But they do, so that more people can get them. If they have 100 buckets available, they'd rather give those buckets to 50-100 parties rather than letting 10 scalpers buy 10 each. They're selling all the buckets either way. But it's a reasonable limit to keep customers happy.
Here, it's about putting more Average Joes in rooms rather than letting DVC scalpers tie up those rooms for months on end.