DVC Rumors

[Dean]

But tourism has also recently returned to Hawaii, in particular the Japanese market after a long downturn. Combined with a decrease in hotel rooms (to condos and renovations) the Honolulu occupancy rate for 2005 was 97%.

My answers were more directed at timeshare issues than hotels. While there are similarities, they do not track exactly both in HI or at DVC. The last hotel info I have is from 2004 and is in a comparative format, not actual dollars. I have more info from 2005 related to timeshares themselves on a week by week basis. Both support my feelings however, low season in HI is not the same as low season in HH, it is a relative low.

I also run trade tests routinely and the weeks I normally have show up that are not short notice are May plus the times I posted lending further evidence to my theories. I haven't asked recently, but a few years ago Sept and part of Oct were considered Mid season by DVC, I don't know if this has changed or not.

 

[DemoBri1]

I just returned from a trip to DLR and spoke with a couple of DVC people out there.

They both indicated that there are talks about a DVC resort at Disneyland Resort, but that's years away. They wouldn't actually "tell" me where the next DVC resort would be built, but from the hints they gave...well, can you say "aloha"?

I was also told that all the WDW deluxe resorts will eventually have a DVC associated with them, but who knows if and when that will actually happen.

This is really confusing to me. There's an implication of a Hawaiian resort here, but then you throw a wrench into the idea with the statement that the CMs stated all Deluxe Resorts will have a DVC resort. This would imply to me that the Poly rather than Hawaii itself is the target.

Also, why would Disney do another off-property resort site, when they had so much trouble selling out HHI and VB? The whole idea behind DVC is to provide a Disney vacation experience year after year, at least that's what I thought DVC's premise was. It just wouldn't make any sense to build a DVC property that is at least 4+ hours flight time for everyone in the U.S.

Maybe I'm off base here, but I wouldn't really support a DVC resort in Hawaii. It would cost way too much to maintain with the costs of everything out there plus, as others have indicated, who would want to buy points out there and be forced to use that resort as their 11 month booking?

Just way too much money. The Poly hint would be much more believable than Hawaii. Also, would this cut into the proposed new building at CR?

 

[bavaria]

My answers were more directed at timeshare issues than hotels. While there are similarities, they do not track exactly both in HI or at DVC. The last hotel info I have is from 2004 and is in a comparative format, not actual dollars. I have more info from 2005 related to timeshares themselves on a week by week basis. Both support my feelings however, low season in HI is not the same as low season in HH, it is a relative low.

I also run trade tests routinely and the weeks I normally have show up that are not short notice are May plus the times I posted lending further evidence to my theories. I haven't asked recently, but a few years ago Sept and part of Oct were considered Mid season by DVC, I don't know if this has changed or not.

Although we are not comparing apples to apples, I think that we both agree that Hawaii has a relative low season, which are the months you noted. However 'low season' is not the same as in other markets.

The shift is definitely for more timeshare units vs hotel rooms in Hawaii (and makes sense in that market)

 

[Dean]

Although we are not comparing apples to apples, I think that we both agree that Hawaii has a relative low season, which are the months you noted. However 'low season' is not the same as in other markets.

The shift is definitely for more timeshare units vs hotel rooms in Hawaii (and makes sense in that market)

I have no doubt we're saying about the same thing in different ways. However, the break point where I see something in the timeshare world as hard to get vs not is whether I can easily get it by doing an ongoing search through II. If I can routinely get an area, that becomes an easy exchange in my book. If I can't routinely get it with what I want to trade, it doesn't matter if it's in the book or not. While I haven't traded for all those times I quoted I have traded for early Dec a couple of times and see the other times come up for Maui and Kauai routinely.

This years II book has much more info that the last couple of years giving week by week availability comparison in a given area. It allows you to compare the demand of individual weeks in an area. Hopefully they'll get around to giving the same data in such a way that will allow comparisons of one area to another.

I believe that Marriott's resorts are all the same season year around other than the newer ones have a carve out for Xmas and one also has a carve out for New Years. Not totally sure about the Westin.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Also, why would Disney do another off-property resort site, when they had so much trouble selling out HHI and VB? The whole idea behind DVC is to provide a Disney vacation experience year after year, at least that's what I thought DVC's premise was. It just wouldn't make any sense to build a DVC property that is at least 4+ hours flight time for everyone in the U.S.

The big difference now is that Disney Vacation Development (DVD) has a base of 90 thousand existing DVC members to whom add-ons in Hawaii could potentially be sold. In comparison, DVC was young when HHI and VB were introduced; there weren't many members yet, and many of them were still paying off their initial DVC contracts. Also, DVD missed the mark with site selection at HHI and VB. Marriott has better sites at HHI, and VB is a relatively minor destination.

I'm still skeptical that DVD will actually launch a new timeshare resort in Hawaii. But I acknowledge that it's a possibility.

Disney has a real economic advantage when developing DVC resorts at WDW. And Disney not only makes money through initial sales and property management (as other timeshare companies like Marriott and Starwood do), but also through ongoing on-site spending as DVC members return to WDW year after year. But that doesn't mean that Disney wouldn't also like to make money from people who like to visit Hawaii — if DVD can make the business case work.

One correction: A DVC resort in Hawaii would not be "at least 4+ hours flight time for everyone in the U.S." Hawaii is in the U.S. (So for some people in the U.S. it could a short walk away!)

 

[ClarabelleCow]

when vb was built, wasnt there talk of the disney cruise terminal being built closer to vb and not in port canaveral???

 

[DisFlan]

I'm with DemoBri1 and anyone else who thinks "aloha" might mean the Poly, not Hawaii.

Hawaii is nice, but it's not where we'd use a DVC. There are LOTS of smashing, interesting and exciting resorts in Hawaii. I'm just not sure what Disney would have to offer in Hawaii that they couldn't do better near their own parks. But good luck to the folks who would like to see a DVC in Hawaii.

DisFlan

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

when vb was built, wasnt there talk of the disney cruise terminal being built closer to vb and not in port canaveral???

No. Vero Beach does not have a harbor for large ships.

Port Canaveral was always the perfect port for DCL because of its proximity to WDW and Orlando International Airport.

The DVC Vero Beach Resort was always meant as a beach resort. The idea was that guests would want to unwind at the beach at a quaint, oldtime Florida seashore resort near a lovely, old Florida town — either after a visit to WDW, as just as a quiet vacation.

 

[Daitcher]

This is really confusing to me. There's an implication of a Hawaiian resort here, but then you throw a wrench into the idea with the statement that the CMs stated all Deluxe Resorts will have a DVC resort. This would imply to me that the Poly rather than Hawaii itself is the target.

Also, why would Disney do another off-property resort site, when they had so much trouble selling out HHI and VB? The whole idea behind DVC is to provide a Disney vacation experience year after year, at least that's what I thought DVC's premise was. It just wouldn't make any sense to build a DVC property that is at least 4+ hours flight time for everyone in the U.S.

Maybe I'm off base here, but I wouldn't really support a DVC resort in Hawaii. It would cost way too much to maintain with the costs of everything out there plus, as others have indicated, who would want to buy points out there and be forced to use that resort as their 11 month booking?

Just way too much money. The Poly hint would be much more believable than Hawaii. Also, would this cut into the proposed new building at CR?

I hear people saying way too much money for flights, etc. This doesn't apply to everyone and I would bet money the resort would sell out in a heartbeat. Hawaii has strong appeal, combine that with DVC reputation and quality, combined with the ability to book WDW Resorts at 7 months and it is a winner. I WILL ADD ON A LARGE NUMBER OF POINTS HERE IF IT HAPPENS. Those who can't afford the flights simply won't add on and will occasionaly try to get in at 7 months. The rest of the people will scramble to get points here. With 90,000 + members and growing daily selling it out won't be an issue. This doesn't even count the Japanese market or the West coast market. Hawaii is a top destination and it sells itself. Marriott doesn't seem to be having any trouble selling, why would DVC? I can only hope this rumor pans out.


DAVE

 

[Daitcher]

I'm with DemoBri1 and anyone else who thinks "aloha" might mean the Poly, not Hawaii.

Hawaii is nice, but it's not where we'd use a DVC. There are LOTS of smashing, interesting and exciting resorts in Hawaii. I'm just not sure what Disney would have to offer in Hawaii that they couldn't do better near their own parks. But good luck to the folks who would like to see a DVC in Hawaii.

DisFlan

The OP already answered this and the guides did not use the word Aloha. She used the words here to mean Hawaii. They were not talking about Poly.


DAVE

 

[gppnj]

A thought: With a DVC in Hawaii and the ability to use points at Tokyo Disneyland, perhaps DVC is going to go after the Japanese market.

 

[cobbler]

I would soooo be all over a Poly DVC.

 

[Dean]

I hear people saying way too much money for flights, etc. This doesn't apply to everyone and I would bet money the resort would sell out in a heartbeat. Hawaii has strong appeal, combine that with DVC reputation and quality, combined with the ability to book WDW Resorts at 7 months and it is a winner. I WILL ADD ON A LARGE NUMBER OF POINTS HERE IF IT HAPPENS. Those who can't afford the flights simply won't add on and will occasionaly try to get in at 7 months. The rest of the people will scramble to get points here. With 90,000 + members and growing daily selling it out won't be an issue. This doesn't even count the Japanese market or the West coast market. Hawaii is a top destination and it sells itself. Marriott doesn't seem to be having any trouble selling, why would DVC? I can only hope this rumor pans out.


DAVE

It depends. If DVD takes the approach they did with VB and HH, I doubt there will be a big scramble for points. In both off site options they took non conventional locations that were less desirable than many other locations to the masses and tried to make them work. Likely because they were trying to get by with cheaper land costs and/or got into the game late in those areas. If they take the same approach in HI and don't learn to be more aggressive in their sales, it could be just as disastrous from a sales standpoint as those 2 were. I'd love to have a HI option as well as many others, however, I simply don't see DVD being able to compete with the big boys without the benefit of WDW as a sales point unless they change their ways.

 

[Daitcher]

It depends. If DVD takes the approach they did with VB and HH, I doubt there will be a big scramble for points. In both off site options they took non conventional locations that were less desirable than many other locations to the masses and tried to make them work. Likely because they were trying to get by with cheaper land costs and/or got into the game late in those areas. If they take the same approach in HI and don't learn to be more aggressive in their sales, it could be just as disastrous from a sales standpoint as those 2 were. I'd love to have a HI option as well as many others, however, I simply don't see DVD being able to compete with the big boys without the benefit of WDW as a sales point unless they change their ways.

Very true. They don't market themselves enough. They would have to be more aggressive. I just feel Hawaii is a winner and would never become a VB or HH. I'm probably not lucky enough to have this one pan out, but my fingers are crossed. We leave for Aruba Sunday and my wife is annoyed because all I bring up is this Hawaii rumor. She wants me to get excited for this trip. Thanks for the thoughts.

DAVE

 

[BCVOwner2002]

Hawaii would be nice but I wouldn't purchase. I'd be very happy to use my points and stay there once or twice though. Annmarie

 

[Dean]

Very true. They don't market themselves enough. They would have to be more aggressive. I just feel Hawaii is a winner and would never become a VB or HH. I'm probably not lucky enough to have this one pan out, but my fingers are crossed. We leave for Aruba Sunday and my wife is annoyed because all I bring up is this Hawaii rumor. She wants me to get excited for this trip. Thanks for the thoughts.

DAVE

Have a great trip. My wife keeps asking why we own weeks in Aruba if we never go. She doesn't look at the big picture and forgets about all those wonderful trips we've taken and given to family, many of which have been using exchanges with our Aruba weeks.

 

[erikthewise]

A thought: With a DVC in Hawaii and the ability to use points at Tokyo Disneyland, perhaps DVC is going to go after the Japanese market.

I agree. I don't think a Hawaiian DVC would be successful without a major buyin from the Japanese market.

A Polynesian DVC would be a dream come true. But there have been multiple discussions in the past about the lack of buildable land near the current resort. Not sure how that all shakes out -- I would say tear down Tuvalu and the Luau Cove to do it right. It still seems the Contemporary is far more likely for the immediate future.

 

[JimC]

Have a great trip. My wife keeps asking why we own weeks in Aruba if we never go. She doesn't look at the big picture and forgets about all those wonderful trips we've taken and given to family, many of which have been using exchanges with our Aruba weeks.

Dean maybe she is hinting that a trip to Aruba would be welcomed

 

[Sammie]

I have been told by very reliable sources that the Contemporary project will just be the first of the DVC add on to exisiting resorts. I would think AKL would be next after Contemporary. That would give DVC Epcot/mgm resorts, another MK resort and an AK resort.

As to having room at the Polynesian it is very possible an exisiting building such as they are going to do at the Contemporary would be used.

 

[erikthewise]

But who wants a DVC in an existing building? Don't we all want our suites? As far as I know that would require a new building, not just remodeling. If that means tearing down something first, then do it!

I'll make an exception for the Polynesian though. I would be happy just being able to buy there/stay there for a reasonable number of points, even in the existing rooms.