DVC Room Availability Limited

[SL6827]

That has little to do with booking a timeshare. With a timeshare and use em or lose em points, the economy has to be BAD for the points not to get used.

The great economy has more of an effect on Disney's regular resort business, but it does play a part on their timeshare side as well.

 

[crisi]

The great economy has more of an effect on Disney's regular resort business, but it does play a part on their timeshare side as well.

Explain how it affects room availability. Cause I don't see people wasting their points in anything but the worst economy. It certainly affects DVC sales, but room availability is a stretch. I could even make a case that in a great economy, more points go to waste - because people are less cautious with their money and might decide to take a more extravagant trip - like going to Europe - and not use their points.

 

[crvetter]

Explain how it affects room availability. Cause I don't see people wasting their points in anything but the worst economy. It certainly affects DVC sales, but room availability is a stretch. I could even make a case that in a great economy, more points go to waste - because people are less cautious with their money and might decide to take a more extravagant trip - like going to Europe - and not use their points.

I would say the great economy has led to a higher/more robust rental market which allows owners who wouldn’t use their points to rent them out. This allows for less points to go to waste which means less availability across the board. The reality is life gets in the way so some owners won’t be able to use their points and eating the MF is cheaper if they can’t rent then trying to take a trip.

Though technology probably has had the biggest impact. More bloggers means more exposure on how to rent points (thus increasing that client base) and more exposure to all the new stuff yearly Disney offers. Also technology makes it easier to make sure all points get used (no longer have to call to check availability).

 

[SL6827]

Explain how it affects room availability. Cause I don't see people wasting their points in anything but the worst economy. It certainly affects DVC sales, but room availability is a stretch. I could even make a case that in a great economy, more points go to waste - because people are less cautious with their money and might decide to take a more extravagant trip - like going to Europe - and not use their points.

Or in a great economy people will use their points at Disney faithfully, going perhaps more than normal? Maybe borrowing from the next year to make it down to the world one extra time this year, keeping those studios booked up. Or, if they are out, rent more points. To say that a rocking economy has not contributed to tight room availability to some degree is hilarious, but OK.

 

[jerseyduke]

Part of the reason is the rocking economy. Plain and simple.

How so? DVC is designed to be 95% percent occupied at all times. (That's why Disney loves it) the economy would have an effect on park attendance and cash rooms, not really dvc.

If ppl borrow, then there should be MORE availability the next year!

I think more non members know about the value to be had renting, and do, and do it early

 

[crisi]

I would say the great economy has led to a higher/more robust rental market which allows owners who wouldn’t use their points to rent them out. This allows for less points to go to waste which means less availability across the board. The reality is life gets in the way so some owners won’t be able to use their points and eating the MF is cheaper if they can’t rent then trying to take a trip.

Though technology probably has had the biggest impact. More bloggers means more exposure on how to rent points (thus increasing that client base) and more exposure to all the new stuff yearly Disney offers. Also technology makes it easier to make sure all points get used (no longer have to call to check availability).

Except in the deepest part of the recession, people have been able rent their points without a problem - and I think people would be more careful to monetize their unused points in a down economy than in a great one. The economy doesn't really affect that since the supply is almost always less than the demand. Education about renting early does, but that doesn't have anything to do with the economy.

 

[crisi]

Or in a great economy people will use their points at Disney faithfully, going perhaps more than normal? Maybe borrowing from the next year to make it down to the world one extra time this year, keeping those studios booked up. Or, if they are out, rent more points. To say that a rocking economy has not contributed to tight room availability to some degree is hilarious, but OK.

I'm still not understanding how - they go more than normal - they have the same number of points - there are still the same number of rooms, they system still works at pretty much full occupancy every year. The economy has been good for about eight years now - long enough for banking and borrow cycles to stabilize through. Maybe I'm just stupid here with my econ/finance education, but since you think I'm dumb enough to be hilarious, please educate me.

 

[crvetter]

Except in the deepest part of the recession, people have been able rent their points without a problem - and I think people would be more careful to monetize their unused points in a down economy than in a great one. The economy doesn't really affect that since the supply is almost always less than the demand. Education about renting early does, but that doesn't have anything to do with the economy.

I mean to clarify my own post, I didn’t connect education to the economy. Also I think the DIS user may have easily rented their points; however, the average DVC member might not have known too.

I suspect that even today, considering breakage exists to large degree, that members still aren’t renting their points out but letting them go to waste. Though to avoid getting too far off topic I will avoid the discussion on why members aren’t behaving rationally and selling points at any cost but letting them expire.

Now my speculation (which in all honesty either of us have since DVC doesn’t share occupancy numbers and how that occupancy was maintained—breakage or members) is that certainly the bettering economy has played a role in tightening availability at earlier and earlier times. But this is a point at which I’ll have to politely agree to disagree to avoid the thread going to far off the rail.

 

[DebbieB]

A guide said there are 6 million dvc members? Sounds dubious...

Not 6 million members, here is the count from late 2018.
View attachment 459835

Maybe I misremembered. Maybe 600,000? Those numbers look low.

 

[crvetter]

Maybe I misremembered. Maybe 600,000? Those numbers look low.

The numbers I posted are exactly what DVC claims to the State of Florida but it does line up with the expected average contract sizes and the fees charged on the MF (we as owners per resort pay $1 per contract, not membership which the my attachment was, of a resort to the state of Florida)

Often it’s easy to think DVC is a large group of members when in reality to the parks (or hotel guests) annual visitors DVC owners are super small percentage.

I’m sure you remembered accurately but the guide was exaggerating.

 

[SL6827]

Except in the deepest part of the recession, people have been able rent their points without a problem - and I think people would be more careful to monetize their unused points in a down economy than in a great one. The economy doesn't really affect that since the supply is almost always less than the demand. Education about renting early does, but that doesn't have anything to do with the economy.

Education about renting early makes sense, but people have to have the money to do so. Thus the rocking economy making that possible. Whether or not is has been eight years is another story. It will be interesting to see what happens when a recession returns, and that is not up for debate, that will happen.

 

[jerseyduke]

Education about renting early makes sense, but people have to have the money to do so. Thus the rocking economy making that possible. Whether or not is has been eight years is another story. It will be interesting to see what happens when a recession returns, and that is not up for debate, that will happen.

Its been a lot more than 2 years. Q1 2014 saw a contraction in GDP. Since then things have been on fire. In fact, there have been 3 quarters since then with GDP growth > 4 percent, 2 in 2014. Things have been good the last 2 years, yes, but also the last 5, at least.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

How so? DVC is designed to be 95% percent occupied at all times. (That's why Disney loves it) the economy would have an effect on park attendance and cash rooms, not really dvc.

If ppl borrow, then there should be MORE availability the next year!

I think more non members know about the value to be had renting, and do, and do it early

Theoretically, I think the economy could affect DVC availability.

A trip to WDW for a DVC members still requires a lot of money beyond the dues. Flights, tickets, dining, etc. When the economy is bad, some members will just pay their dues and skip the trip. Not all members rent out their points (some are not comfortable doing it, some don’t know how/don’t want to try and some simply don’t know that they can.) There are many DVC members who do not know all the ins and outs of DVC, are not involved in online communities, etc.

When the economy is bad, less people may rent points and you may have more trouble finding people to rent your points from you. More unused points, more available villas.

I personally do think it is feasible that the health of the economy could affect DVC availability.

I personally feel that the tighter availability is a mix of a number of factors mentioned in this thread, not due to just one.

 

[SL6827]

Its been a lot more than 2 years. Q1 2014 saw a contraction in GDP. Since then things have been on fire. In fact, there have been 3 quarters since then with GDP growth > 4 percent, 2 in 2014. Things have been good the last 2 years, yes, but also the last 5, at least.

Ya, I think 5 years is a good number now that I think about it, that is fair.

 

[SL6827]

I personally feel that the tighter availability is a mix of a number of factors mentioned in this thread, not due to just one.

Absolutely!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Given that rental demand is so much higher than points on offer, the contraction of demand would have to be exponential to really have an impact.

 

[Soap_1984]

I just booked a one bedroom for a few days at ccv and a two bedroom at floridian for start of may which is 5 months out. Look at the availability charts, if you are going at a few select times, you are going to have trouble finding availability. I don't think it has changed much but if I'm booking a studio I always book at 7 months and assume I can't get it at 6 months.

 

[crvetter]

Given that rental demand is so much higher than points on offer, the contraction of demand would have to be exponential to really have an impact.

However, what really is the magnitude of the rental market. I suspect it's a very very small percentage of DVC points that are rented out, thus not really that large in magnitude of those wishing to rent (the waitlists at the two biggest brokers aren't 100s of reservations long even). Also those that are renting DVC points are very savvy with their money (i.e. going the cheapest route for Deluxe accommodations) so they might also be the first to start contracting on their vacations if a downturn happens (they are behaving rationally currently so could assume they would behave rationally in a downturn).

Though personally I subscribe to the idea that the current bull market has led to an increase in rental demand. However, a recession won't necessarily lead to a decrease to rental demand. The reason I think that isn't because the current renters would necessarily keep renting, but because the public education is out there on renting DVC points and cash guests wishing to keep going to Disney might convert and fill in any emptying demand left by those deciding to no longer rent.

Though it is important to note that the last two large recession (2008 and 2001) Disney cash resorts were operating well below fully occupied (as was the parks).

 

[crisi]

However, what really is the magnitude of the rental market. I suspect it's a very very small percentage of DVC points that are rented out, thus not really that large in magnitude of those wishing to rent (the waitlists at the two biggest brokers aren't 100s of reservations long even). Also those that are renting DVC points are very savvy with their money (i.e. going the cheapest route for Deluxe accommodations) so they might also be the first to start contracting on their vacations if a downturn happens (they are behaving rationally currently so could assume they would behave rationally in a downturn).

Though personally I subscribe to the idea that the current bull market has led to an increase in rental demand. However, a recession won't necessarily lead to a decrease to rental demand. The reason I think that isn't because the current renters would necessarily keep renting, but because the public education is out there on renting DVC points and cash guests wishing to keep going to Disney might convert and fill in any emptying demand left by those deciding to no longer rent.

Though it is important to note that the last two large recession (2008 and 2001) Disney cash resorts were operating well below fully occupied (as was the parks).

And yet, in 2008, DVC occupancy was still at or near 100%. The vast majority of people who wanted to rent their points could do so. People still couldn't find rooms for the last quarter if they didn't plan months ahead - and people still got locked out of the Epcot resorts at that time at seven months. A few SSR owners ended up with points they couldn't rent, but still, in a recession, very few points go to waste. In a normal economy points don't go to waste. In a great economy, points don't go to waste.

 

[crvetter]

And yet, in 2008, DVC occupancy was still at or near 100%. The vast majority of people who wanted to rent their points could do so. People still couldn't find rooms for the last quarter if they didn't plan months ahead - and people still got locked out of the Epcot resorts at that time at seven months. A few SSR owners ended up with points they couldn't rent, but still, in a recession, very few points go to waste. In a normal economy points don't go to waste. In a great economy, points don't go to waste.

I mean the resort might be at 100% occupancy but as I stated previously it depends when it was filled (i.e. does a recession cause the rooms to be rented or reserved later) and how much breakage was utilized. Without DVC sharing their numbers, which they won’t, anything either of us say is conjecture. Though I’m going to avoid discussing if a recession will affect the rental market, it’s something that will be tested again soon enough. But as I stated the bull market might (most likely has) have increased the rental market but a recession might not do the opposite.

Also points do go to waste every single year. Breakage income does exist and can’t exist at the scale it does if points weren’t being wasted.