Originally posted by Mike
Then how do you explain all of these posts where people are calling their guides and are being told how far down the list they are? According to the post about new procedures for buying addons there is now an official waitlist as 8/4. So the demand is there.
The waitlist just came into being again on 8/4--when they made the process change. When the decision was made to change the add-on process again, there was no existing waitlist.
Sure, there is a waitlist now. But, since DVC did away with the waitlist a few months ago, and have subsequently raised the price, any projections of current demand are subjective.
And while we can argue about whether it is gross revenue or profit or somewhere in between, the fact remains that Disney was selling addons before the price increase so one would assume that it was a profitable venture else why would they be doing it. So the $5 increase in the gap between propsed resales and the new price of $89 that DVC is charging is going to make it that much more of a profitable venture.
Any my contention would be that the very reason DVC de-emphasized add-ons several months ago was because there was very little, if any, profit to be made on some contracts.
IMO, the sole reason for ROFR is to keep the gap between "new" points (SSR points) and the older resorts as narrow as possible. Certainly demand will set the price at SOME level. But DVC definitely cannot afford to have points changing hands--even at a resort like Vero--at some ridiculously low level like $40-50 each when they are trying to sell SSR at $95.
In a sense, DVC is compelled to accept points at their calculated ROFR levels to keep the market inflated to a level of their choosing. Once they have the points, they need to do something with them. Selling them to current members would be the logical
Given the demand and the increased profit, I maintain that it is much more likely that Disney will be exercising ROFR if the resale prices stay at current levels.
But aren't you disproving your own statements, here?
If DVC starts exercising ROFR at higher levels than in the past (a fact that I do NOT believe is necessarly true--a least in the long run), then they are eating into their own additional $5 "profit".
Additionally, if DVC does actually begin exercising ROFR at higher levels, it won't take long before the resale agents catch on to this and begin advocating price increases across the board. The purpose of the resale market is to put points in the hands of new members--not to funnel the points back to DVC at a price level of their choosing. If DVC increases their ROFR threshold, it will raise the market price across the board.
IMO, it is POSSIBLE that DVC is temporarily snatching a few of the lowest priced contracts in order to fill its coffers with points to feed some of the people on the waiting list. But as soon as they establish a pattern, resale prices will rise across the board and their steady stream of points will dry up. As of last night, I could find exactly two posts from people who recently lost contracts--one was a second-hand report, the other had the seller paying closing costs. Probably not the best evidence to support any change in ROFR on DVC's part.
Disagree if you wish. But, generally speaking, the best way to increase profit does not include actions which will raise expense AND revenue by similar increments.
We'll have to keep an eye on the boards and an ear to the ground and see what transpires in these next few weeks. If there is indeed a trend it will surface. 
