DVC prices tanking?

[tx911]

I’ll tell you what would make me clear out my DVC points…. flight prices…. if fares stay this high then I’ll just stick to things that are driving distance…

Yeah, they've gotten out of control

 

[disneylandtour]

Prices definitely aren't tanking.

I look at these things most every morning.

In resale, BLT and VGC are definitely trending down. VGC has been overvalued on the resale market, IMO. Poly is starting to dip as well, largely because direct points will surely be under $200 even with modest incentives and MB once they open for sale. I think that 150 points will come in between $180 and $190 in the initial offering--maybe even close to $180. But just a guess.

OKW Extended is up...by a lot this past year. SSR is up. (I bought SSR points not long ago in the $60s.). And AKV is also up over last year.

In terms of direct, DVD made some bad decisions with the cabins (restrictions, high MF, and the new trust), which definitely hurt sales...by a lot. But none of that should affect PIT when it opens for sales.

If there are any actual drags on DVC sales right now is the overall economy and the cost of travel, especially for larger families. But overall, if Disney actually starts building Carland II, Villains Land, Monsters' Inc mini-land, Indy, and Encanto, there will be interest in DVC because that schedule of attractions and lands will create meaningful repeat business--every year or every other year.

 

[disneylandtour]

Yeah, they've gotten out of control

I'd say that this is one key issue at the moment. Pre-pandemic, I regularly found RT flights (United, Delta, American) for $150 to $180, sometimes less. Now, with the same airports, I'm trying to keep it under $300.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

if the economy tanks and people loose jobs or inflation steadily rises, we will see an influx of contracts on the market. Also Direct prices will have to readjust accordingly. We saw this during the 09-12 market crash, direct incentives were really great, but resale was even better.

 

[tx911]

I'd say that this is one key issue at the moment. Pre-pandemic, I regularly found RT flights (United, Delta, American) for $150 to $180, sometimes less. Now, with the same airports, I'm trying to keep it under $300.

I would love $300. I feel like when I go the flights are $700+

 

[AstroBlasters]

Prices definitely aren't tanking.

I look at these things most every morning.

In resale, BLT and VGC are definitely trending down. VGC has been overvalued on the resale market, IMO. Poly is starting to dip as well, largely because direct points will surely be under $200 even with modest incentives and MB once they open for sale. I think that 150 points will come in between $180 and $190 in the initial offering--maybe even close to $180. But just a guess.

OKW Extended is up...by a lot this past year. SSR is up. (I bought SSR points not long ago in the $60s.). And AKV is also up over last year.

In terms of direct, DVD made some bad decisions with the cabins (restrictions, high MF, and the new trust), which definitely hurt sales...by a lot. But none of that should affect PIT when it opens for sales.

If there are any actual drags on DVC sales right now is the overall economy and the cost of travel, especially for larger families. But overall, if Disney actually starts building Carland II, Villains Land, Monsters' Inc mini-land, Indy, and Encanto, there will be interest in DVC because that schedule of attractions and lands will create meaningful repeat business--every year or every other year.

VGC clears pretty quickly at $230-$250pp…. you are also referencing resorts that are about to get a refurb. Context and timeframe matter.

 

[Genie+]

Prices definitely aren't tanking.

I look at these things most every morning.

In resale, BLT and VGC are definitely trending down. VGC has been overvalued on the resale market, IMO. Poly is starting to dip as well, largely because direct points will surely be under $200 even with modest incentives and MB once they open for sale. I think that 150 points will come in between $180 and $190 in the initial offering--maybe even close to $180. But just a guess.

OKW Extended is up...by a lot this past year. SSR is up. (I bought SSR points not long ago in the $60s.). And AKV is also up over last year.

In terms of direct, DVD made some bad decisions with the cabins (restrictions, high MF, and the new trust), which definitely hurt sales...by a lot. But none of that should affect PIT when it opens for sales.

If there are any actual drags on DVC sales right now is the overall economy and the cost of travel, especially for larger families. But overall, if Disney actually starts building Carland II, Villains Land, Monsters' Inc mini-land, Indy, and Encanto, there will be interest in DVC because that schedule of attractions and lands will create meaningful repeat business--every year or every other year.

I agree with all this in general.

Resorts go through phases in popularity driving resale at that resort up/down. Once Poly was pretty firmly same association resale got more popular and as those resale contracts dried up the price rose, then more owners decided to sell (due to the high resale pricing) outpacing demand and price went back down. OKW extended became popular when people kept talking about how much better of a value it was than the 2042 resale, and the gap in those prices grew.

VDH didn’t offer the best incentives out the gate. They let the pent up demand exhaust itself first and I think they’ll do that with PIT.

 

[disneylandtour]

VGC clears pretty quickly at $230-$250pp…. you are also referencing resorts that are about to get a refurb. Context and timeframe matter.

Sure, there’s context. All I’m saying is that some things are down, others are up. But there’s nothing about this that I would say means DVC is tanking. BLT almost surely go up if the refurb is nice.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I agree with all this in general.

Resorts go through phases in popularity driving resale at that resort up/down. Once Poly was pretty firmly same association resale got more popular and as those resale contracts dried up the price rose, then more owners decided to sell (due to the high resale pricing) outpacing demand and price went back down. OKW extended became popular when people kept talking about how much better of a value it was than the 2042 resale, and the gap in those prices grew.

VDH didn’t offer the best incentives out the gate. They let the pent up demand exhaust itself first and I think they’ll do that with PIT.

It amazes me how much I despise the acronym PIT for the Poly Tower…. it feels very crude….

 

[Genie+]

It amazes me how much I despise the acronym PIT for the Poly Tower…. it feels very crude….

I like calling it PVB2… or maybe we can call it PVP - Poly Villas and Penthouses

 

[AstroBlasters]

I like calling it PVB2… or maybe we can call it PVP - Poly Villas and Penthouses

I call it PolyT, but I like PVB2 and PVP better than PIT.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think prices are actually up vs when I started looking in May of this year.

I also think I remember seeing that AKV sold in the $50pp range in the not so distant past. Now its up in high 90's low 100's

 

[ChipTheRescueRanger]

DVC field guide have a good historic price chart goes back to 2018. Prices are trending down but still have the covid boom.

Looks like most are levelling off to what they had been pre covid

 

[stat]

I would love $300. I feel like when I go the flights are $700+

Its funny I've mostly seen the opposite where I live. Was happy to get RT under $300 a few years ago. Now with Spirit (no luggage, thank you Owner's Locker) we can snag direct flights for $60 RT. Not a typo, it's $20-40 each way fairly often. This is part of the reason we bought more points and felt comfortable going more often.

Switching topics, some people are referencing SSR and AKV prices of $50-60... are we talking 5-6 years ago? Those resorts were both solidly in the 120s when I first bought in a couple years ago. Was thinking rock bottom lately has been in the 80-90 range (high 70s only when stripped). Did I miss some price plunge in the market?

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah, they've gotten out of control

It’s funny because from here, ours have actually been pretty good.

I just got December down to $153/person. This is JetBlue too!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Its funny I've mostly seen the opposite where I live. Was happy to get RT under $300 a few years ago. Now with Spirit (no luggage, thank you Owner's Locker) we can snag direct flights for $60 RT. Not a typo, it's $20-40 each way fairly often. This is part of the reason we bought more points and felt comfortable going more often.

Switching topics, some people are referencing SSR and AKV prices of $50-60... are we talking 5-6 years ago? Those resorts were both solidly in the 120s when I first bought in a couple years ago. Was thinking rock bottom lately has been in the 80-90 range (high 70s only when stripped). Did I miss some price plunge in the market?

I know I read about it somewhere.. cant remember where though. If/when I find it I will post it here.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Its funny I've mostly seen the opposite where I live. Was happy to get RT under $300 a few years ago. Now with Spirit (no luggage, thank you Owner's Locker) we can snag direct flights for $60 RT. Not a typo, it's $20-40 each way fairly often. This is part of the reason we bought more points and felt comfortable going more often.

Switching topics, some people are referencing SSR and AKV prices of $50-60... are we talking 5-6 years ago? Those resorts were both solidly in the 120s when I first bought in a couple years ago. Was thinking rock bottom lately has been in the 80-90 range (high 70s only when stripped). Did I miss some price plunge in the market?

Here is one thread. https://www.disboards.com/threads/historical-value-drops-resale.3832032/page-2 The older ROFR threads show AKV very low (but so were many others) in 2012/2013. My point was more prices havent really tanked. I wish I had bought AKV in 2012 at 60pp and could sell now for $90pp. That would be a huge win even though yes I understand money in 2012 isnt the same as money in 2024

 

[RanDIZ]

Its funny I've mostly seen the opposite where I live. Was happy to get RT under $300 a few years ago. Now with Spirit (no luggage, thank you Owner's Locker) we can snag direct flights for $60 RT. Not a typo, it's $20-40 each way fairly often. This is part of the reason we bought more points and felt comfortable going more often.

Switching topics, some people are referencing SSR and AKV prices of $50-60... are we talking 5-6 years ago? Those resorts were both solidly in the 120s when I first bought in a couple years ago. Was thinking rock bottom lately has been in the 80-90 range (high 70s only when stripped). Did I miss some price plunge in the market?

AKV is a good example. When I bought in Jan 2020, I got 100pt at $109. I saw it rise into the 140’s then fall off a cliff back to the low 100’s in a matter of 4-5yrs.

CCV I got in 2021, 100pt at $140 then go into the 170-180 range and now back to 130-140’s where it kinda leveled off…..for now.

 

[AstroBlasters]

It’s funny because from here, ours have actually been pretty good.

I just got December down to $153/person. This is JetBlue too!

It’s still $1000 round trip for a spring break round trip from Portland….

 

[VGCgroupie]

It’s still $1000 round trip for a spring break round trip from Portland….

Same or more for us. Thats part of why Hawaii is so appealing for me as a vacation spot, at least when we get to Hawaii we havent wasted an entire day traveling, the day in Hawaii is just starting after the 7 hour flight. Prices are about the same to Hawaii as FL for us. The discount airlines just tend to never have flights when I need them to FL.