DVC Predictions for 2025

[zavandor]

DVC announce a price increase for MMB in 2026. Members are outraged and complain loudly. Members buy MMB for 2026.

 

[mgarbowski]

1. Cabins at Fort Wilderness continue to struggle with sales. Its incentives will get more-and-more desperate each cycle. Sales remain level. Disney is not unhappy and incentives get nowhere near desperate. Might get folded into Lakeside.
2. Polynesian and the Villas at Disneyland "sell out" by the end of 2025. No.
3. Riviera and Aulani do not "sell out" in 2025. Agree.
4. Transportation at the monorail resorts reaches its breaking point. It literally gets national news coverage. Gets worse. Disney adds regular bus service to Epcot from GF and CR/BLT. Not national news.
5. Membership Magic Beyond sees minor interest. Disney adds some new perks for 2026 to help it sell better. Disney added MMB as a minor optional perk for non-AP DVC members. It works as expected. Tweaks made for 2026 program, leading to 17-page DIS thread debating whether it got better or worse and with a side of whether Disney hates its customers.
6. ROFR activity remains light. Agreed.

 

[havoc315]

The year is almost over, so it's time for everyone on the internet to fake expertise and lack any shame when proven wrong. What are your predictions for DVC in 2025?

I'll start:

1. Cabins at Fort Wilderness continue to struggle with sales. Its incentives will get more-and-more desperate each cycle.
2. Polynesian and the Villas at Disneyland "sell out" by the end of 2025.
3. Riviera and Aulani do not "sell out" in 2025.
4. Transportation at the monorail resorts reaches its breaking point. It literally gets national news coverage.
5. Membership Magic Beyond sees minor interest. Disney adds some new perks for 2026 to help it sell better.
6. ROFR activity remains light.

Some comments on your ideas, then some additional...

1. Cabins at Fort Wilderness will continue not to sell. I don't think Disney cares. They can continue treating this as just a regular moderate level resort, with the option to "buy in" as DVC. Disney appears to largely be abandoning the traditional hotel resort model.
2. Neither Polynesian nor VDH will sell out.
2a -- VDH -- There are over 2 million points remaining, and under 20,000 points are selling per month. It not only won't sell out in 2025... it probably won't sell out by 2030. Disneyland simply does not have huge demand for DVC, where more guests are local and stays are shorter. No reason to buy 200+ points when trips are never more than 1-2 nights.
2b -- Polynesian -- Prediction for 2025 -- Incentives improve and then sales improve dramatically. It will sell well in 2025, possibly selling out in 2026 or 2027. I forget the total points, but it's over 2 million. At best, we are looking at 150,000 points sold per month - but more likely in the range of 75,000 to 125,000 per month. While Polynesian is popular, DVC buyers are very price sensitive -- Sales won't take off fully until it is priced lower than Riviera (which I expect in the next round). Even then, many buyers will be turned off by the high point charts. I suspect it will sell very well, but it is not going to break every monthly record. So selling out in 2026 or 2027.
3. Agreed that neither Riviera nor Aulani sell out. But Riviera will start to edge pretty close. Riviera has 1.7 million points left to sell. Conservatively, it should continue to average 65,000+ points per month. It's on track to sell out late 2026 to 2027.
4. No..... the monorail problems will continue, but not get dramatically worse.
But you do bring up a point about infrastructure capacity --- The extra guests of the Poly tower will overwhelm Poly. There will be increasing complaints about Captain Cook's being too crowded, the pool being too congested.
5. I won't make predictions about MMB..
6. Yes, ROFR will remain light with so many resorts in active sales.
7. No new DVC will be announced in 2025 (but will be announced in 2026).
8. You will start to see a divide in re-sale pricing between 2042 resorts lagging others.

 

[intamin]

Agree with @NVDISFamily that a RR expansion will be announced, opening in 2028.

I would be really happy if this were to happen but idk I'm not seeing them do this. Has there been any inclinations or hints towards expanding RR and making a walking path?

 

[CinCrisis]

My predictions based on pure speculation:

Bay Lake Tower resale contracts will see a slight increase in price as people respond well to the refurb and scoop it up for it’s relatively low dues and great access to MK.

Disney remains unbothered by low CFW sales because they know they’ll sell buckets when they fold CFW up into Lakeshore and use that opportunity to reduce dues.

MMB increases in price by 10%.

Disney announces an additional lounge for eligible DVC members only.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

I would be really happy if this were to happen but idk I'm not seeing them do this. Has there been any inclinations or hints towards expanding RR and making a walking path?

I don’t think a walking path will ever happen

 

[intamin]

I don’t think a walking path will ever happen

I dont think so either, even if they had it, id be willing to bet most people will end up taking the bus anyways. People dont even want to walk from TTC to MK

 

[NVDISFamily]

I dont think so either, even if they had it, id be willing to bet most people will end up taking the bus anyways. People dont even want to walk from TTC to MK

My prediction of an announced expansion and walking path was my most "well this would be fun/silly" so therefore at least could happen prediction of things to come. It's based on few gut feelings and observations.

We were at EPCOT for the 4th of July this year and as we walked back to BWV from EPCOT after the fireworks the line to get on the Skyliner was all the way to Beach Club. We love Riviera but at that exact moment I was so grateful that we were using our points to check out other resorts and staying at BW. I could imagine that opening a new path/option that could fix some of that problem and serve all the guests staying on the other side of Buena Vista Dr. I'm also sure that guests that just dropped 30+ K on DVC points and doing their first stay at Riviera (or Riviera 2.0) would like to have that option. It would help them sell millions of more points.

Riviera expansion just makes sense. I'm not saying I want them to do it, but EPCOT and HS are very popular with guests that visit often and having more points to sell in that area just makes sense. If they do build the "planned" thing in font of EPCOT than that may greatly lower the chance they rip down more of CB and convert it to Riviera. If someone gave me decent odds on if Aruba would be there in 10 years I'd take a chance it might be removed for more DVC......

 

[tjkraz]

The year is almost over, so it's time for everyone on the internet to fake expertise and lack any shame when proven wrong. What are your predictions for DVC in 2025?

I'll start:

1. Cabins at Fort Wilderness continue to struggle with sales. Its incentives will get more-and-more desperate each cycle.

Sales will remain about the same. Incentives won’t rise significantly. Disney can continue selling rooms to cash guests. There’s zero urgency.

1. Polynesian and the Villas at Disneyland "sell out" by the end of 2025.

No. The game isn’t how fast you can sell out. The game is how much you can earn for each point. If points actually begin to sell rapidly, DVC will simply raise the price / lower incentives.

1. Riviera and Aulani do not "sell out" in 2025.

Correct. There’s nothing to suggest this is even a remote possibility.

1. Transportation at the monorail resorts reaches its breaking point. It literally gets national news coverage.

Unless there’s some accident, I don’t see this happening. Island Tower is only adding about 8% more rooms to the resort monorail line. Passing judgements based upon a holiday season when the walking path between Poly and GF was mostly closed is pretty flawed. Most of the year, monorail will be fine. It’s just not a huge uptick in traffic.

1. Membership Magic Beyond sees minor interest. Disney adds some new perks for 2026 to help it sell better.

Maybe, but not sure how we would ever know. DVC isn’t going to discuss participation, unless it’s something generic and favorable for Disney (“More than half of all members signed up in the first year!”)

1. ROFR activity remains light.

Sure.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Interesting list, but I don't see #2 having any shot at happening.

There is a 0% chance that VDH sells out in 2025 unless they offer a $100pp incentive…..

 

[Genie+]

My predictions for DVC in 2025 -

Active resorts do not sell out yet.

PVB Tower best round of incentives will come mid-year, sometime between May and Sept

A change comes that impacts commercial renting to some degree

MMB+ offers something extra, similar to the way Welcome Home Weeks were added

Summer 2026 bookings have surprisingly fewer 7m trading options than we’ve grown accustomed.

After 2025 - Lakeside Lodge announces more details, including amenities will be shared with Ft W Cabins

 

[Hubalorian]

My prediction of an announced expansion and walking path was my most "well this would be fun/silly" so therefore at least could happen prediction of things to come. It's based on few gut feelings and observations.

We were at EPCOT for the 4th of July this year and as we walked back to BWV from EPCOT after the fireworks the line to get on the Skyliner was all the way to Beach Club. We love Riviera but at that exact moment I was so grateful that we were using our points to check out other resorts and staying at BW. I could imagine that opening a new path/option that could fix some of that problem and serve all the guests staying on the other side of Buena Vista Dr. I'm also sure that guests that just dropped 30+ K on DVC points and doing their first stay at Riviera (or Riviera 2.0) would like to have that option. It would help them sell millions of more points.

Riviera expansion just makes sense. I'm not saying I want them to do it, but EPCOT and HS are very popular with guests that visit often and having more points to sell in that area just makes sense. If they do build the "planned" thing in font of EPCOT than that may greatly lower the chance they rip down more of CB and convert it to Riviera. If someone gave me decent odds on if Aruba would be there in 10 years I'd take a chance it might be removed for more DVC......

For the Aruba conversion, is your prediction they’ll tear down and build new, tear down build new and connect to RIV, or just renovate and flip in VGF fashion? Of those three, I think the flip and renovate would be the most likely outcome.

 

[intamin]

My predictions for DVC in 2025 -

Active resorts do not sell out yet.

PVB Tower best round of incentives will come mid-year, sometime between May and Sept

A change comes that impacts commercial renting to some degree

MMB+ offers something extra, similar to the way Welcome Home Weeks were added

Summer 2026 bookings have surprisingly fewer 7m trading options than we’ve grown accustomed.

After 2025 - Lakeside Lodge announces more details, including amenities will be shared with Ft W Cabins

Just to add to the membership magic beyond.. maybe something they could do is add online check in to the app for lounges

 

[intamin]

For the Aruba conversion, is your prediction they’ll tear down and build new, tear down build new and connect to RIV, or just renovate and flip in VGF fashion? Of those three, I think the flip and renovate would be the most likely outcome.

I'd hope it's the former rather than the latter. I really do love the aesthetic that they have at Portofino Bay at Universal and if they added some boats and etc to add some more character to the area it really could be an amazing area. I don't think they will because well you know $$$ but there's potential for that area.

The only downside is we'll lose the quiet and peaceful nature of RIV.

 

[NVDISFamily]

There is a 0% chance that VDH sells out in 2025 unless they offer a $100pp incentive…..

VDH at 150 a point direct. My investments and savings would never recover.......

 

[intamin]

VDH at 150 a point direct. My investments and savings would never recover.......

For that much I'm ready to become homeless and rely on the water from Tiana's to bathe me.

 

[sarahlord]

Same same.. I have a Disney wedding to pay for. I'mike 90% sure we're fine though, worse comes to worst not that I won't avoid it at all costs but I'd consider financing a small portion to get what I want and then pay it off after a few months just so I can get it direct. Spreading it out over 3 months on a credit card would probably actually be enough for a couple hundred points

I just put 100 poly points on a 0% APR for 21 months credit card, big advantage I think to buy direct. Also I’m going to make my own magical beginnings and rent out 2024 and 2025 points, I don’t need poly points until 2026.

 

[intamin]

I just put 100 poly points on a 0% APR for 21 months credit card, big advantage I think to buy direct. Also I’m going to make my own magical beginnings and rent out 2024 and 2025 points, I don’t need poly points until 2026.

What card did you use?

 

[juliebee]

my predictions:
1. Aulani, Riviera, Poly, Villas at Disneyland, and the Fort Wilderness cabins are all still for sale at the end of 2025. None will sell out.
2. There is some sort of Saratoga or OKW incentive for direct purchase and they ROFR that resort to offer direct.
3. Boat dock under construction at Poly tower
4. There is an actual crack down on commercial renting
5. There continues to be a resale dump of those getting out of commercial renting
6. They do nothing about walking

 

[juliebee]

For fun....

• DVC finds a way to allow owners with resale to wash those dirty points via purchase of a large contract plus a smaller fee or a larger fee with no purchase.

I'd be interested to see this happen. What fee amounts would you (or anyone) predict for that?