DVC Predictions for 2025

[Hubalorian]

I'd be interested to see this happen. What fee amounts would you (or anyone) predict for that?

No idea If they’d be able to do it, but what if they did it by Calendar year or resort fee.

Using non-benefit eligible points (“resale”) for VDH, RIV, CFW or any new DVC property results in a tiered resort fee per night. Studio have the highest fee, then 2 Bdr, then 1 bdr and lastly GV. My thoughts would be, higher the fee for the more sought after rooms type. Want to avoid the fee, book a room type that is less likely to fill.

Or your non-eligible points will be treated as eligible for the Calendar year if you pay X amount.

 

[sarahlord]

What card did you use?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Prediction-

VDH at 150 a point direct. My investments and savings would never recover.......

In September-ish it was down to about $180 with magical beginnings at 200 points with all of the incentives, magic key, Disney visa, Disney +, or whatever else they were doing.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Not a prediction, but a “never going to happen wish list”:

1) Build World Showcase at Disneyland and build boutique DVC resorts into each of the lands with their own entrance.

2) Announce that they have purchased the land next to Aulani and have contracted with Joe Rohde to build an expansion.

3) They announce a one time $30pp point washing program that will make resale points eligible at restricted resorts if purchased before 2025.

4) They introduce a Magic Key for DVC at Disneyland.

5) They allow DVC-Y guests an early booking window for ADRs and reserved pool seating at Disneyland and Aulani.

6) They offer an extension for Boardwalk and Beach Club owners until 2052.

7) They announce they will build out a boat service canal from Rivera to World Showcase.

8) They announce they will extended the Skyliner to Animal Kingdom.

9) They increase the DVC point trade in value at Disney properties in Tokyo and Paris to $18pp.

10) All direct purchases of 100 points or more come with a LLPP for up to 6 people on their Welcome Home stay.

11) Moonlight Magic nights move to a lottery system instead of first come first serve.

12) Disney buys Mears and restarts Magical Express for Deluxe Resorts.

 

[Cfabar1]

Not a prediction, but a “never going to happen wish list”:

1) Build World Showcase at Disneyland and build boutique DVC resorts into each of the lands with their own entrance.

2) Announce that they have purchased the land next to Aulani and have contracted with Joe Rohde to build an expansion.

3) They announce a one time $30pp point washing program that will make resale points eligible at restricted resorts if purchased before 2025.

4) They introduce a Magic Key for DVC at Disneyland.

5) They allow DVC-Y guests an early booking window for ADRs and reserved pool seating at Disneyland and Aulani.

6) They offer an extension for Boardwalk and Beach Club owners until 2052.

7) They announce they will build out a boat service canal from Rivera to World Showcase.

8) They announce they will extended the Skyliner to Animal Kingdom.

9) They increase the DVC point trade in value at Disney properties in Tokyo and Paris to $18pp.

10) All direct purchases of 100 points or more come with a LLPP for up to 6 people on their Welcome Home stay.

11) Moonlight Magic nights move to a lottery system instead of first come first serve.

12) Disney buys Mears and restarts Magical Express for Deluxe Resorts.

lots of great ideas, but I agree most (probably all) of them are unlikely to happen... ever...

The most likely would be the point washing program, but at $30/pp I think it would be a near total failure...

My "non predictions" "12 days of DVC wishes" that would be fascinating (for better or worse) to see happen but don't are:

1. 2042 OKW owners are contacted and offered the ability to purchase a 2057 extension for $30 pp. DVC tries to convert as many owners as possible to 2057...

2. Disney ditches the Chase Visa... Partners with American Express to offer a standard and premier card. The premier card costs $650 a year, but offers a $250 Disney Dining Credit, access to a "White Glove" Lounge at Animal Kingdom and EPCOT, and a $20/month Disney+ statement credit. Disney Purchases earn 4x points and 1x points on everything else. 6 month 0% financing goes away.

3. DVC wishes to boost sales while keeping the purchase price high on paper. Incentives lower, and prices stay very high. However, as interest rates go down they lower the financing rates for DVC contracts, and offer a new 24 month 2.9% APR payment plan and 36 month 4.9% APR payment plan.

4. Membership Magic Beyond shows Disney how profitable selling OTUP can be. As such, they raise the purchase price up to $25/pp and additionally they increase the number of OTUP that can be sold to existing members in a year to 75 points per use year.

5. Facing outcry, DVC soundproofs Bent Pine Key and brings the resort up to a true DVC standard.

6. DVC announces the opening of lounges at all the remaining US Parks.

7. DVC announces that they are expanding into international markets, starting with Euro Disney and plan to have a new DVC resort in conjunction with the new expansion/renovation of Adventure World that will open in 2028.

8. Recognizing the hit they have on their hands with Disney Cruise Lines Member Cruises, they announce there will be two member cruises a year - one FL based and one California based.

9. DVC works to actively undercut the resale brokers and offers enhanced programs on legacy resorts bringing prices closer. They also add a direct "buy back program" that targets members based on usage data giving them a pipeline to acquire the points. They don't go down to resale prices, but they get close enough that the economics around resale become much trickier to justify.

10. 2027 Points Charts come out with significant alterations. July 15-October 1 is reduced even further, but other times of the year become much more expensive. Members who had winter/spring trips are shocked to see their points are now the maximum more per night. DVC signals that this trend will continue into 2028.

11. Aulani is expanded with the land next door with a second part of the resort.

12. DVC Moonlight magic is expanded to a "per purchase" program which offers enhanced benefits. Members complain vociferously but Disney holds their ground... They buy anyways and it is a big hit for the company!

 

[CastAStone]

The year is almost over, so it's time for everyone on the internet to fake expertise and lack any shame when proven wrong. What are your predictions for DVC in 2025?

1. Disney changes something significant with CFW. I’m not sure what, but it’s absolutely broken.
2. We learn more about Lakeside Lodge and it’s either all DVC or all hotel
3. Someone in DVC leadership “departs the company for a new opportunity” and their replacement is named in the same press release (aka they were fired)

 

[CastAStone]

Polynesian and the Villas at Disneyland "sell out" by the end of 2025

Impossible. On both counts.

 

[CastAStone]

VGC and AKL have their remodels and they are mostly well received.

I am nervous about both as I loved both when I stayed, but I’m optimistic.

And I’ll also add SSR Treehouses

There is a 0% chance that VDH sells out in 2025 unless they offer a $100pp incentive…..

I still wouldn’t buy.

Eh, maybe at that…

No. No no no. Not with that TOT. No.

Well that’s still…

No. not gonna do it. No.

I think.

Boat dock under construction at Poly tower

I 100% agree.

 

[juliebee]

3) They announce a one time $30pp point washing program that will make resale points eligible at restricted resorts if purchased before 2025.


12) Disney buys Mears and restarts Magical Express for Deluxe Resorts.

I would be tempted to do a $20pp point washing. That would be $3000 for 150 points. I am not into most of the direct perks, but being able to buy the annual pass, get some shopping discounts, and have more resort variety when using my points would be worth that cost.

 

[juliebee]

my predictions:
1. Aulani, Riviera, Poly, Villas at Disneyland, and the Fort Wilderness cabins are all still for sale at the end of 2025. None will sell out.
2. There is some sort of Saratoga or OKW incentive for direct purchase and they ROFR that resort to offer direct.
3. Boat dock under construction at Poly tower
4. There is an actual crack down on commercial renting
5. There continues to be a resale dump of those getting out of commercial renting
6. They do nothing about walking

Adding one more
7. Disney offers one time use points to be used at the 11 month mark as a direct owner benefit for the 2026 membership magic beyond

 

[maui22]

If they implement a point washing, would they base it on years remaining? 17 years remaining for 2042, but VDH, CFW, and RIV have significantly more years.

 

[AstroBlasters]

If they implement a point washing, would they base it on years remaining? 17 years remaining for 2042, but VDH, CFW, and RIV have significantly more years.

I think they would code it just like the resale points that were grandfathered in.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Ok, what about a Beyond Magic + that lets people use their resale points as direct FOR THAT YEAR ONLY…. so it could turn resale points into an annuity for DVC…..

 

[Cfabar1]

Ok, what about a Beyond Magic + that lets people use their resale points as direct FOR THAT YEAR ONLY…. so it could turn resale points into an annuity for DVC…..

double edged sword, but I'm sure they'd love the potential for recurring revenue.

Would work great for folks who want to use oKW points to stay at riviera year after year.

would work less great for the person who just wants to use 10 points or whatever it is to stay in a tower studio one time.

Maybe they could offer both.... $30/yr point washing blanket or $12 for one time annual point washing of a point.

 

[bdrex28]

I should clarify that the "it literally gets national news coverage" portion of #4 isn't me saying the coverage would be justified. I'm saying it's an easy story for a network to syndicate across the local news stations about "this person paid $1500/nt to stay at the Grand Floridian, and can't even catch a monorail to the park".

It's interesting they add on to Poly But it doesn't appear they added more bus stops or obviously any monorail capacity.

Personally I feel infrastructure management is less than adequate at WDW.

 

[Brian Noble]

$30/yr point washing blanket

I suspect this is too low. If they do it, I would guess it would not be less than 25% of retail---and will probably be more. At today's prices, that would be a floor of about $55-60pp.

I think it is much more likely that they'd do re-qualification based on a new point purchase---this is how Diamond is structured. Diamond does this on a 1-to-1 basis.

I also think this doesn't happen anytime soon.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I suspect this is too low. If they do it, I would guess it would not be less than 25% of retail---and will probably be more. At today's prices, that would be a floor of about $55-60pp.

I think it is much more likely that they'd do re-qualification based on a new point purchase---this is how Diamond is structured. Diamond does this on a 1-to-1 basis.

I also think this doesn't happen anytime soon.

Thus the “never going to happen wish list”

 

[skier_pete]

Since It's more fun to comment on other predictions than come up with my own....but I'll add a few at the end.

1. Cabins at Fort Wilderness continue to struggle with sales. Its incentives will get more-and-more desperate each cycle.
2. Polynesian and the Villas at Disneyland "sell out" by the end of 2025.
3. Riviera and Aulani do not "sell out" in 2025.
4. Transportation at the monorail resorts reaches its breaking point. It literally gets national news coverage.
5. Membership Magic Beyond sees minor interest. Disney adds some new perks for 2026 to help it sell better.
6. ROFR activity remains light.

1. Yes. Incentives won't get higher. Plan is already in place for solution here. It's called Lakeshore Lodge
2. Nope
3. Yup.
4. Nope.
5. I think it will do better than most think at the price point.
6. With so many resorts for sale, 100% this.

2025 predictions:
1. After price increases kick in, the lowest priced WDW resort leads the monthly sales.
2. Cabins continue poor sales through 2025 and it's announced in 2026 that Lakeshore lodge will be part of the same trust and sales increase.
3. Incentives increase when prices increase to keep total cost around 180/point for 150 to 200 points when including magical beginnings.
4. Epic Universe opening helps increase Disney parks attendance through summer 2025.
5. MMB price jumps to $125 without any significant increase in perks.

1. Not sure what this means - Vero Beach?
2. Yes.
3. Nope
4. Doubtful
5. Higher

For fun....

• DVC finds a way to allow owners with resale to wash those dirty points via purchase of a large contract plus a smaller fee or a larger fee with no purchase.
• VGC and AKL have their remodels and they are mostly well received.
• There is continued price pressure on the 2042 resorts and some stripped contracts at them go for historical low "bargains" as people do the math and realize there is only mid-teens years left of points to use.
• Disney WDW (FL) get's a lot less foot traffic due to Universal's open and this drives pressure to have some good promotions to boost sales. DLR (CA) get's a bit more traffic due to the 70th and things go a bit better for DVC on the west coast.
• SSR and OKW become a bit more popular and hard to book in the less than 5 to 6 month range as a lot of owners figure it's easier to just stay at the cheap point chart resorts if they plan on mostly driving down the road to Epic Universe if they want to use their DVC points for the stay.
• DVC announces a new wing of the Riviera, The Lakeside Villas (that totally did not used to be Aruba) at Riviera Resort. This comes with an announcement that a themed bridge and shopping walking path and entrance into EPCOT will be opened called the Gateway to Europe. This will drops you into Germany and Italy. It totally won't ruin the emersion as you can just look left as you enter and see France over there....

1. I'd love for them to "wash" resale points, but they could've done this for years, I think they have no interest in this. They would just see this as "encouraging resale".
2. sure
3. I think we're still a few years from this, but it happens sooner or later.
4. Haha, I like this one. If SSR and OKW become harder to book, which resort becomes easier?
5. LOL

I’ll play
1. CFW continues to struggle until DVC decides that direct owners get a complimentary golf cart each stay, sales soar
2. MMB does well and they find a way to combine it with advanced lightning lane purchases, at an increased price
3. Epic causes attendance and occupancy to increase at WDW across the board, including DVC resorts
4. AKL gets a fresh coat of beige paint

1. No such thing as complimentary at Disney.
2. Not sure about combining with LL, two different parts of the business.
3. No
4. Haha

My predictions based on pure speculation:

Bay Lake Tower resale contracts will see a slight increase in price as people respond well to the refurb and scoop it up for it’s relatively low dues and great access to MK.

Disney remains unbothered by low CFW sales because they know they’ll sell buckets when they fold CFW up into Lakeshore and use that opportunity to reduce dues.

MMB increases in price by 10%.

Disney announces an additional lounge for eligible DVC members only.

1. Sure
2. Yup
3. Higher
4. Nope

My predictions for DVC in 2025 -

Active resorts do not sell out yet.

PVB Tower best round of incentives will come mid-year, sometime between May and Sept

A change comes that impacts commercial renting to some degree

MMB+ offers something extra, similar to the way Welcome Home Weeks were added

Summer 2026 bookings have surprisingly fewer 7m trading options than we’ve grown accustomed.

After 2025 - Lakeside Lodge announces more details, including amenities will be shared with Ft W Cabins

1. Sure
2. Let's hope they are telling the truth on this. Lock the accounts DVC.
3. I can see this.
4. ??
5. Yup

my predictions:
1. Aulani, Riviera, Poly, Villas at Disneyland, and the Fort Wilderness cabins are all still for sale at the end of 2025. None will sell out.
2. There is some sort of Saratoga or OKW incentive for direct purchase and they ROFR that resort to offer direct.
3. Boat dock under construction at Poly tower
4. There is an actual crack down on commercial renting
5. There continues to be a resale dump of those getting out of commercial renting
6. They do nothing about walking

1. Correct
2. Maybe
3. Rooting for it.
4. YES!
5. This could happen
6. 100%

1. Disney changes something significant with CFW. I’m not sure what, but it’s absolutely broken.
2. We learn more about Lakeside Lodge and it’s either all DVC or all hotel
3. Someone in DVC leadership “departs the company for a new opportunity” and their replacement is named in the same press release (aka they were fired)

1. Lakeshore Lodge
2. Maybe, but it will be 100% DVC.
3. Haha, it's been a while. The CFW have not fallen on anyone higher up yet.

OK now a few wild predictions of my own
1. MMB is a big hit at the $99 price point. They double the price in 2026 and add one more small perk. People complain but still buy it.
2. None of the current resorts sell out, but Riviera will sell out in 2026.
3. Disney puts out more concept art and details for Lakeside Lodge at Destination D. Announce anyone that purchases the cabins will also own at Lakeside Lodge. Sales on cabins boost slightly.
4. Frontierland DVC Lounge is a big hit but way too small. Wait times often exceed 3 hours for non-MMB members. Lots of member complaints about it. (Poor lounge CMs.)
5.Jellyrolls closure rumors debunked. Skier_pete remains a happy Boardwalk owner stumbling "home" at 1 AM for many years to come.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Since It's more fun to comment on other predictions than come up with my own....but I'll add a few at the end.

1. Yes. Incentives won't get higher. Plan is already in place for solution here. It's called Lakeshore Lodge
2. Nope
3. Yup.
4. Nope.
5. I think it will do better than most think at the price point.
6. With so many resorts for sale, 100% this.

1. Not sure what this means - Vero Beach?
2. Yes.
3. Nope
4. Doubtful
5. Higher

1. I'd love for them to "wash" resale points, but they could've done this for years, I think they have no interest in this. They would just see this as "encouraging resale".
2. sure
3. I think we're still a few years from this, but it happens sooner or later.
4. Haha, I like this one. If SSR and OKW become harder to book, which resort becomes easier?
5. LOL

1. No such thing as complimentary at Disney.
2. Not sure about combining with LL, two different parts of the business.
3. No
4. Haha

1. Sure
2. Yup
3. Higher
4. Nope


1. Sure
2. Let's hope they are telling the truth on this. Lock the accounts DVC.
3. I can see this.
4. ??
5. Yup


1. Correct
2. Maybe
3. Rooting for it.
4. YES!
5. This could happen
6. 100%


1. Lakeshore Lodge
2. Maybe, but it will be 100% DVC.
3. Haha, it's been a while. The CFW have not fallen on anyone higher up yet.

OK now a few wild predictions of my own
1. MMB is a big hit at the $99 price point. They double the price in 2026 and add one more small perk. People complain but still buy it.
2. None of the current resorts sell out, but Riviera will sell out in 2026.
3. Disney puts out more concept art and details for Lakeside Lodge at Destination D. Announce anyone that purchases the cabins will also own at Lakeside Lodge. Sales on cabins boost slightly.
4. Frontierland DVC Lounge is a big hit but way too small. Wait times often exceed 3 hours for non-MMB members. Lots of member complaints about it. (Poor lounge CMs.)
5.Jellyrolls closure rumors debunked. Skier_pete remains a happy Boardwalk owner stumbling "home" at 1 AM for many years to come.

“Jellyrolls closure rumors debunked. Skier_pete remains a happy Boardwalk owner stumbling "home" at 1 AM for many years to come.”

Hip hip hooray!

 

[rentfn]

4) They introduce a Magic Key for DVC at Disneyland.

I feel like the locals would riot. I'm an east coaster and LOVE DLR and in all the groups I'm in "locals" look down on DVC and out of towners with magic keys. YMMV