Moreover, about 2/3 of the Riviera resales have been posted for 45+ days while less than 25% of Poly resales are in that situation. There seems to be a strong appetite for resale PVB since the DVD price increase (a week ago there were 40+ PVB resale listings, now just about 30), but less so for Riviera. This perhaps suggests Riviera resale prices may have more downside risk from here.
I absolutely agree that RIV has more downside risk than PVB - if one's primary concern with purchasing direct points was resale value, it's not a close call. Buy PVB.
But, I'm not so sure the current snapshot of the resale market really gives us a lot of information to predict resale prices one way or the other. Just looking at a few other resorts.
RIV has sold about 5.7M of its 6.7M points.
CCV has about 3.3M points.
VGF has about 4.3M points.
BLT has about 5.7M points.
Current resale contracts for sale:
RIV: 56
CCV: 51
VGF: 51
BLT: 92
Just eyeballing it:
RIV: 60% or so outstanding more than 45 days
CCV: 50% or so outstanding more than 45 days
VGF: 50% or so outstanding more than 45 days
BLT 40% or so outstanding more than 45 days
And, a fair number of those RIV resale contracts that have been on the market a long time are very large contracts which have a hard time selling generally, let alone at a restricted resort like RIV. I mean, it has gotta be really hard to sell a 300+ point RIV contract.
But, do people look at the above for CCV/VGF/BLT and think, yeah, those resorts have a lot of downside potential too? I don't think so. And, are they all that different from RIV, especially if you were to set aside some of the larger contracts? I'm not sure I see it, at least just doing a quick eyeball analysis of the current resale market. But, resale RIV is also a fundamentally different product than resale O14, so it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
Now, you could say, well, what about PVB? Shouldn't PVB and RIV look similar since they're both in active sales? Well, resale RIV is such a different product from resale PVB, I'm not sure someone interested in direct RIV is going to give much consideration to resale RIV. Someone interested in direct PVB, OTOH, might say, well, I'm pretty cool with the O14, so if I can get small discount over direct for points that have almost as much utility, maybe its worth it.
I think we honestly don't know what the trajectory of resale RIV is going to look like. I could make arguments both for increases and decreases. It is simply the real test case we have for restricted resort resale prices.
But, like I said, without a doubt, all things being equal, if resale prices are a primary concern, and someone is otherwise good with PVB or RIV, buy PVB. It's not a close call.