DVC hopeful/newbie

[Disfam19]

Hi there! New to the forum! We put in an offer for a 200 point contract for SSR today at roughly 85 a point, with no points until 2019 (we plan on adding on 25 points through Disney if/when we close). What are the chances you guys think Disney will ROFR it? Also, I’ve read and researched this question a million times and I see answers of all different opinions, but I’m asking it again: how difficult would it be to book a studio, at a non-home resort that’s fairly popular (BWV/BCV/YCV/BLT/VGF/Poly) seven months out, during the two least costly points seasons. All thoughts, ideas, stories, tips, opinions welcome.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Disney don't seem to ROFR many stripped contracts.

how difficult would it be to book a studio, at a non-home resort that’s fairly popular (BWV/BCV/YCV/BLT/VGF/Poly) seven months out, during the two least costly points seasons.

Difficult from mid-September through marathon, which includes basically all of Choice season, and a substantial part of Adventure season. Once you get past marathon in January, odds improve somewhat. Note that Yacht Club does not have DVC. BCV/BWV studios are very difficult in fall, and will become even more so as the new DHS "lands" open. VGF is very small and studios book quickly.

Poly, being the largest, has the most opportunity, but availability for all but the post-marathon dates should be expected to dry up by 8:15AM at 7 months.

If you are buying SSR with high hopes of staying elsewhere in the fall, you are likely to become intimate with the waitlist, and still often not succeed.

 

[CraigInPA]

Realistically, it depends upon what accommodations you want during the low point seasons and for how long. The lowest point Studios can be tough from October through Marathon weekend in January at 7 weeks. You'll have greater potential success with lake view studios at BLT at 7 months than any studio at GFV, BWV, and BCV. The Poly's history of availability isn't quite so well defined, as they're just selling out now. If you're looking at a stay in a 1 bedroom anywhere, you'd likely have good success at 7 months. To pull off a one week 1 bedroom stay, you'll need between 225 and 260 points, depending upon resort.

Statistically, Disney takes about 5% of contracts through ROFR. With SSR (a resort with many contracts) and no points coming until 2019, I'd say your chances of it going through are quite good.

 

[pamkat1820]

A rep I was talking to today at a resale company said last month she did over 60 contracts and the only one that was taken was HH go figure. She said there is no rythem or reason. And I have to say I agree with her. It seems like they take what they need at the time and who knows what that is and why.

 

[disneynutz]

Availability is getting much more limited at 7 months compared to just a year ago and Disney is coming up with everything they can to increase attendance all year long. IMO if you don't buy your favorite resort for the 11 months advantage you are playing the lotto.

Bill

 

[Disfam19]

Thank you so much everyone for your replies! Makes me rethink our decision! Have to get the check in the mail before noon today when the post office closes. If I back out I wonder if can still buy with DVC resale’s... also, the extra 24 points a year for 17 bucks a point, can you do that for every contract you own? DVC just doesn’t seem as special as they made it sound, especially reading how limited studios are!!!

Hi there! New to the forum! We put in an offer for a 200 point contract for SSR today at roughly 85 a point, with no points until 2019 (we plan on adding on 25 points through Disney if/when we close). What are the chances you guys think Disney will ROFR it? Also, I’ve read and researched this question a million times and I see answers of all different opinions, but I’m asking it again: how difficult would it be to book a studio, at a non-home resort that’s fairly popular (BWV/BCV/YCV/BLT/VGF/Poly) seven months out, during the two least costly points seasons. All thoughts, ideas, stories, tips, opinions welcome.

Hi there! New to the forum! We put in an offer for a 200 point contract for SSR today at roughly 85 a point, with no points until 2019 (we plan on adding on 25 points through Disney if/when we close). What are the chances you guys think Disney will ROFR it? Also, I’ve read and researched this question a million times and I see answers of all different opinions, but I’m asking it again: how difficult would it be to book a studio, at a non-home resort that’s fairly popular (BWV/BCV/YCV/BLT/VGF/Poly) seven months out, during the two least costly points seasons. All thoughts, ideas, stories, tips, opinions welcome.

 

[disneynutz]

I suggest that to stop what you are doing and learn about the product prior to making an expensive mistake. DVC is a time share, you are pre-paying for a DVC room and paying a yearly fee for the maintenance. In addition you are locked in for a Disney vacation for the period of ownership. While WDW is wonderful, IMO it isn't the same WDW as a few years ago and it is losing some of the magic.

Bill

 

[CarolMN]

Here are some very helpful threads on 11 & 7 month availability - they are just over a year or so old, but still very accurate:

drusba's 11 month availability probability - from 9/2016

drusba's 7 month availability probability - from 10/2016


This one is from 2015 - the author is in the process of updating it. IMO, it over estimates current availability as DVC continues to grow larger and renting becomes more common. I am looking forward to the update.

skier_pete's predicted booking patterns

These threads take a lot of time and effort to compile and we are so fortunate that these two posters have generously shared their research with us.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

IMO, it underestimates current availability as DVC continues to grow larger and renting becomes more common.

Do you mean overestimates/overstates? (It's early yet.) In my observation, fall, especially, is getting tighter and tighter. I do not think anyone should be buying for studios and assuming 7 month availability during Fall Frenzy. If anything, the 2015 charts are overly optimistic for fall. Last year (2017), I think even Saratoga had some holes at 7 months + 1 day.

DVC just doesn’t seem as special as they made it sound, especially reading how limited studios are!!!

It's not that studios are so limited (although at VGF they certainly are, and at a couple other resorts). It's that you're asking about Adventure and Choice seasons. From mid-September through the marathon in January is DVC's high demand season, which corresponds with the low point seasons. Many people who own at BCV and BWV own there to get priority for runDisney races and Food & Wine reservations, and so availability for studios in that season for non-owners is extremely low. BLT is also popular in fall, for its easy access to the Halloween and Christmas parties, and it's a solid option for runDisney races and F&W. Poly is only selling out this month, but while hone resort points available were less than units available, the studios consistently have been gone for multi-day blocks by 8:15AM at 7 months. Poly also has some element of risk in that points were sold against every bungalow, but most owners only want studios. So there are more points to book than studios to book.

For owners who are traveling from January to August, or owners with points and willingness to book 1BRs, DVC can be more flexible when switching at 7 months. Fall and the low point season is not flexible. In fall, you need to expect to be booking your home resort 11 months out, and have limited options to switch at 7 months. Waitlists can be useful and can work, but they don't always, especially if you're after something like a VGF studio or BWV Standard anything.

 

[CarolMN]

Do you mean overestimates/overstates? (It's early yet.) ........

Yes, I did. Thanks for catching it - I fixed it. (And I had a few more cups of coffee).

 

[Disfam19]

Yes, I did. Thanks for catching it - I fixed it. (And I had a few more cups of coffee).

Thank you so much for everyone’s thoughtful responses and help!

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Relevant: When I looked earlier, there are already gaps for Poly around Columbus Day next October. This is still in home resort.