DVC having trouble keeping up with increasing memberships???

[WDWguru]

I forgot about the 60 day thing... thanks!

 

[DVC Mike]

This thread just points out the value of the 11-month booking advantage of the Home Resort Priority Period, and why some of us own at more than one DVC resort.

I believe the 11 month booking window has become very important in making it easier to secure popular reservations, particularly because of the rapid increase in the size of DVC membership.


I try to book all my trips at the 11-mo mark. I've only taken one unplanned trip where I had to book at 6-mos, and was only able to get OKW.

 

[nunzia]

My big question comes with all those developer points. Wouldn't that in effect skew the ratio? If someone buys 160 and gets 160 developer, wouldn't that make it as if an additional person had purchased..for the one year only, but still put pressure on the resorts, since the developer points don't come out of any 'room' allotment?

 

[kt-scarlett]

With more memberships, you are going to have more people able to book at the 7 month window - that's just a fact. It isn't a matter of DVC keeping up - there are exactly enough rooms for the number of points that have been purchased for use throughout the year.

I wonder what effect the proliferation of small contracts (through the resale market) has had on room availability. While there may have been enough rooms for the number of points purchased, there are now many more small contract members trying to reserve these rooms. For example, I have a 25 point contract at VWL in addition to my BWV contract. If I sold my VWL contract then there would now be two members booking where there had been only one.

Would this affect the reservation availability?

 

[jodifla]

I've take a lot of trips a few months out. I'm normally able to get something, although I understand the later I call, the less I'll be able to get my pick, and just have to settle for what's available.

I'm lucky in that OKW is our favorite, and they have the most availability.

 

[DVC Mike]

My big question comes with all those developer points. Wouldn't that in effect skew the ratio? If someone buys 160 and gets 160 developer, wouldn't that make it as if an additional person had purchased..for the one year only, but still put pressure on the resorts, since the developer points don't come out of any 'room' allotment?

No. It's just that Disney (DVD) owns those points as they haven't been sold yet. There are still rooms/units to backup those points.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

My big question comes with all those developer points. Wouldn't that in effect skew the ratio? If someone buys 160 and gets 160 developer, wouldn't that make it as if an additional person had purchased..for the one year only, but still put pressure on the resorts, since the developer points don't come out of any 'room' allotment?

Before Disney Vacation Development (DVD) can sell a given block of points, a corresponding amount of room inventory must be "declared into the condominium." At that point, that inventory ceases to be developer inventory.

DVD can do whatever they want with developer inventory, and it doesn't affect the ability of DVC members to book usage. If DVD provides nights from undeclared inventory (developer inventory) as an incentive to buyers, is does not reduce the amount of available declared inventory (DVC member inventory).

 

[BroganMc]

It's hard to predict, but it seems to me that to the degree that offsite DVC sales happen faster than onsite DVC sales, we can expect increasing pressure at seven months onsite. I also expect that pressure to be much greater than what we're now seeing -- which is primarily owners of larger home resorts booking at smaller resorts.

That is what concerns me with announcements of off-site locations. Every time a member expresses enthusiasm for Hawaii or Disneyland, all I can think about is the new member who uses ther points for the mecca of all Disney.

I suspect many more offsite members will want to stay at WDW than WDW owners want to stay offsite. (We didn't purchase with any desire to stay outside WDW. Our other timeshare does that cheaper and easier.)

I'd hope MS implemented more controls to ease the 7 month crush, but i kinda doubt they'll be proactive about. We'll go through a few abysmal years of booking nightmares before MS figures it out.

As it stands the under 5 month reservations are slim pickings unless you are very flexible.

 

[crisi]

DVC California is so small it won't have any impact. And I suspect the Hawaii will be proportionally well sized for the members who occationally want to go to Hawaii to trade into it - I suspect DVC has enough data on people trading to Hawaii to have sized the resort fairly well. Plus as the original membership gets older, I think they will be more interested in offsite options. That may not mean much for getting BCVs at seven months, but the folks in their 50s whose small children are now teenagers or college age who own BWV or OKW may be freeing up some spots.

(My own kids - eight and nine - have a Hawaiian vacation pretty much at the top of their "can we, Mom?" lists.

 

[nuts]

DVC California is so small it won't have any impact. And I suspect the Hawaii will be proportionally well sized for the members who occationally want to go to Hawaii to trade into it - I suspect DVC has enough data on people trading to Hawaii to have sized the resort fairly well. Plus as the original membership gets older, I think they will be more interested in offsite options. That may not mean much for getting BCVs at seven months, but the folks in their 50s whose small children are now teenagers or college age who own BWV or OKW may be freeing up some spots.

(My own kids - eight and nine - have a Hawaiian vacation pretty much at the top of their "can we, Mom?" lists.

I agree with your sentiment, and add that folks buying into Hawaii will probably be primarily from the West Coast, so less likely to go to DW vs DL.

 

[nunzia]

No. It's just that Disney (DVD) owns those points as they haven't been sold yet. There are still rooms/units to backup those points.

OK..well, that makes perfect sense then.

 

[CarolMN]

I wonder what effect the proliferation of small contracts (through the resale market) has had on room availability. While there may have been enough rooms for the number of points purchased, there are now many more small contract members trying to reserve these rooms. For example, I have a 25 point contract at VWL in addition to my BWV contract. If I sold my VWL contract then there would now be two members booking where there had been only one.

Would this affect the reservation availability?

I agree with you. I think those who buy the smaller contracts do so with the intent of booking at the 11 month window. Thus, there are more people using the home resort booking advantage for peak times.

 

[BroganMc]

I agree with your sentiment, and add that folks buying into Hawaii will probably be primarily from the West Coast, so less likely to go to DW vs DL.

All the European travellers I meet in WDW tend to argue against that. Consider when you're a UKer and it costs $1000 USD to fly coach across the ocean why wouldn't you just take a cheaper flight or train ride to EuroDisney? The answer I always get is that "but this is Disney WORLD". The presumption being that all the other destinations are somehow substitutions.

A West Coaster can spend half that on a flight around the same distance and time.

My point is that DVC is seen as a timeshare built around an amusement park. It's not like Marriott where the timeshare is an extension of a worldwide hotel system. People who buy it are doing so to get that Disney experience. Where better to do that than in Walt's dream world?

 

[nuts]

All the European travellers I meet in WDW tend to argue against that. Consider when you're a UKer and it costs $1000 USD to fly coach across the ocean why wouldn't you just take a cheaper flight or train ride to EuroDisney? The answer I always get is that "but this is Disney WORLD". The presumption being that all the other destinations are somehow substitutions.

A West Coaster can spend half that on a flight around the same distance and time.

My point is that DVC is seen as a timeshare built around an amusement park. It's not like Marriott where the timeshare is an extension of a worldwide hotel system. People who buy it are doing so to get that Disney experience. Where better to do that than in Walt's dream world?[/QUOTE

We are only speculating, but a couple counterpoints:
1. I do a lot of traveling in Europe (business). When I talk to Disney fans from the great continent, they tell me it's cheaper to travel to Orlando than to Paris (total cost of hotel, food, etc). It is especially cheaper now with the weak dollar, but even when the dollar is strong this statement is still true (at least in the past). I'll let our European DVCers comment on this statement.

2. They have no desire to go to Paris in December (cold and wet) vs Orlando.

3. As to West coasters...many times its cheaper to fly to Hawaii than Orlando (personal experience). Yes, they do like WDW, but many prefer the beaches of the Islands vs Orlando. That is why the timeshare business in Hawaii is going gangbusters.

So, my view, Hawaii is not going to have as big an impact that you assume.

 

[tjkraz]

No. It's just that Disney (DVD) owns those points as they haven't been sold yet. There are still rooms/units to backup those points.

While that's true, I have concerns over the nature of the Developer's Points that are being given away.

DVC has been using these DPs as a sales tool for nearly a year now, including a lengthy period last summer when they were giving double Developer's Points (buy 160, get 320 bonus.) If DVC were only using 2007 UY points in the incentive program, that would mean that for every 160 point contract sold, they are actually holding two more 160 points contracts in arrears for sales sometime in 2008 or beyond. The units would have to be open in '07, yet they could not be sold until at least '08 since a year's worth of points were given away.

Points used for these incentives would include the relatively recent openings at Saratoga Springs (last units opened just about 8 mos ago), new points at AKV (which seems to have had DVC in pre-sales mode from the start--selling units that are not yet ready), and finally contracts re-acquired via ROFR.

With nearly a year of these bonus incentives offered to buyers, I have my doubts as to whether they are truly using just '07 points for the bonuses. Instead, I suspect they could well be using points that DVC itself has "banked" from 2006, and perhaps even points that they are "borrowing" from contracts they will still retain in '08.

In the normal course of banking and borrowing, I suspect members bank and borrow to similar levels. There is no great burden placed on a single year. But if we're seeing a 2007 and 2008 that have DVC itself flooding the system with an inordinately high number of points they hold, including banking and borrowing from surrounding years, it would certainly explain why booking difficulties have become even more noticable in the last 12 months.

 

[BroganMc]

2. They have no desire to go to Paris in December (cold and wet) vs Orlando.

I generally find Europeans travelling to Orlando. And besides isn't the biggest hit to availability in the warmer months of the year? If not for Christmas week, all of winter would be dead in Orlando and availability good.

3. As to West coasters...many times its cheaper to fly to Hawaii than Orlando (personal experience). Yes, they do like WDW, but many prefer the beaches of the Islands vs Orlando. That is why the timeshare business in Hawaii is going gangbusters.

Well then why even buy Disney in Hawaii? You can purchase a much cheaper timeshare property there with far more flexibility and less expense.

All this business of saying Disney is all about the family vacation experience is smoke and mirrors. The Disney experience is about fantasy, either in movies or real life. I suspect the sole reason the cruise line makes a go of it is because they create a mini-theme park on the ship as well as tie in to theme park visits with their Land & Sea. What's Hawaii gonna do?

From my experience it is far cheaper and easier for MidAtlanticers to head to Williamsburg. But the biggest excitement goes to flights to Orlando.

So, my view, Hawaii is not going to have as big an impact that you assume.

I doubt any one resort will break the system. It's the cumulative effect I worry about. 50 units at GCV, 400-600 units at Hawaii, another several hundred in the Caribbean, then all those other unnamed global locations.

Eventually I can see the number of members wanting to stay in WDW outweighing the number wanting to stay elsewhere. That's not the same as someone wanting to stay a mile down the road from where there's another room.

 

[rsinj]

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[Dean]

I doubt any one resort will break the system. It's the cumulative effect I worry about. 50 units at GCV, 400-600 units at Hawaii, another several hundred in the Caribbean, then all those other unnamed global locations.

Eventually I can see the number of members wanting to stay in WDW outweighing the number wanting to stay elsewhere. That's not the same as someone wanting to stay a mile down the road from where there's another room.

Actually the number of members and units makes no difference for most situations. The question is the relative demand for one resort compared to another. Take SSR, a great resort, but not as high of demand as some of the other resorts thus more people vying at the 7 months window. It'll likely take 2000 or so unit that are more in demand to balance that single resort's effect on the system. I think AKV will help to some disagree, CRV certainly will help if the points are in line with the rest. I think GCV will have no effect mostly because it's so small that mostly those that own there will get to stay and almost no one else. HI is hard to say. As a rule most HI resorts only have 50% owner occupancy presumably due to the airfare, Aruba is similar to a degree.

 

[TisBit]

I doubt any one resort will break the system. It's the cumulative effect I worry about. 50 units at GCV, 400-600 units at Hawaii, another several hundred in the Caribbean, then all those other unnamed global locations.

Eventually I can see the number of members wanting to stay in WDW outweighing the number wanting to stay elsewhere. That's not the same as someone wanting to stay a mile down the road from where there's another room.

But will a resort in Hawaii help offset the demand for WDW. Look at these boards now, everyone says don't use your points outside of DVC, better to rent them and pay cash for a cruise, etc. Will a resort in Hawaii help draw some of the WDW owners to another location. I could see that if there ends up being half a dozen non-WDW locations, but still within DVC, more members traveling to different places.

I also wonder what affect renting has had on availability. Seems that renting is becoming more and more popular. If you look at the boards and all the people renting reservations in the next 30 days, maybe if those ressies were canceled more frequently, people wouldn't have the availability issues. I am sure there are reservations that go wasted, never get rented or canceled, so the room sits empty, but someone just loses their points and the people on wait lists don't get in.

 

[Sherri]

I can see your point, but what must Disney do to accommodate members. If they don't build more resorts of that size, it is soon going to become impossible to get a reservation, thus making the membership frustrating and useless.

I was just thinking this very thing. I just tried to book reservations for three different time frames and it was close to impossible. Non of the times were Christmas, Easter or Thanksgiving. It was very frustrating.