DVC “Confessions”

[Chili327]

I think most people who buy DVC would have saved more money not owning DVC and taking the same number of trips paying cash or renting points.

How does cash or renting save money?
I mean if they go the same amount of trips, etc.
Is it because they pay too much in the first place?

 

[R2Daddy]

I think most people who buy DVC would have saved more money not owning DVC and taking the same number of trips paying cash or renting points.

I created several spreadsheets that put a DVC purchase against the cash 30% offer and DVC still comes out on top.

Riviera 1br cash w/ 30% offer is around $6200 for a week (not including park tickets).

Direct Riviera with incentives, plus dues, plus selling it after 20 years would make each trip roughly $3500.
Resale Riviera would be around $2600 per trip (at $110pp).

 

[CastAStone]

How does cash or renting save money?
I mean if they go the same amount of trips, etc.
Is it because they pay too much in the first place?

It’s because direct DVC is frequently upside down mathematically! Especially if you stay in 1 bedrooms basically ever, or if you finance, or stay at low value times of year (e.g. summer), or let points expire, or rent points out, or would have been just as happy at a moderate or in a family suite, or are buying at CFW.

It’s turning into the Disney Dining Plan where you have to do it just right to actually save money after accounting for all the things an accountant would tell you to account for. It was a much better deal prior to ~2013.

I have mentioned this before but I calculated the breakeven for SSR, worst case scenario, at ~$88 per point. IOW that’s the price where no matter how stupidly I use it and no matter how deep Disney’s discounts get, I’ll still save at least a little bit of money, assuming I use all the points. I got my contract for slightly less than that. Disney wants $205. They want $225 for Riviera and Aulani. Yes you can absolutely find value at that price but man I don’t want to do that legwork, and if you just compare the point charts to the cash rates and look at the breakage rates, it’s clear that many, many people aren’t getting any value at all.

 

[CastAStone]

I created several spreadsheets that put a DVC purchase against the cash 30% offer and DVC still comes out on top.

Riviera 1br cash w/ 30% offer is around $6200 for a week (not including park tickets).

Direct Riviera with incentives, plus dues, plus selling it after 20 years would make each trip roughly $3500.
Resale Riviera would be around $2600 per trip (at $110pp).

I have Riviera at a cost basis per point of $21.21 in 2024 (that’s based on dues plus a 5% discount rate to the buy in over 47 years). You seem to have a lower cost basis. That’s fine. But that’s also why we disagree. A week this summer with the 30% discount that Disney offered on basically everything was $5,051. It was 276 points. With a cost basis of $21.21 it was $5,853 with points.

 

[MyDogTink]

I’m always looking for cars with a DVC magnet. If I find one, I chase the owner and introduce myself as a fellow DVC member. Only happened twice and DH gets so embarrassed.

 

[Chili327]

It’s because direct DVC is frequently upside down mathematically! Especially if you stay in 1 bedrooms basically ever, or if you finance, or stay at low value times of year (e.g. summer), or let points expire, or rent points out, or would have been just as happy at a moderate or in a family suite, or are buying at CFW.

It’s turning into the Disney Dining Plan where you have to do it just right to actually save money after accounting for all the things an accountant would tell you to account for. It was a much better deal prior to ~2013.

I have mentioned this before but I calculated the breakeven for SSR, worst case scenario, at ~$88 per point. IOW that’s the price where no matter how stupidly I use it and no matter how deep Disney’s discounts get, I’ll still save at least a little bit of money, assuming I use all the points. I got my contract for slightly less than that. Disney wants $205. They want $225 for Riviera and Aulani. Yes you can absolutely find value at that price but man I don’t want to do that legwork, and if you just compare the point charts to the cash rates and look at the breakage rates, it’s clear that many, many people aren’t getting any value at all.

Yep, I get ya’
I just want to make sure I’m not one of them.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I have Riviera at a cost basis per point of $21.21 in 2024 (that’s based on dues plus a 5% discount rate to the buy in over 47 years). You seem to have a lower cost basis. That’s fine. But that’s also why we disagree. A week this summer with the 30% discount that Disney offered on basically everything was $5,051. It was 276 points. With a cost basis of $21.21 it was $5,853 with points.

I would love to know how each of you determined your cost basis, if you would care to explain. I assume CastAStone used some math for this based on cost of alternatives and time value of money?

 

[R2Daddy]

I have Riviera at a cost basis per point of $21.21 in 2024 (that’s based on dues plus a 5% discount rate to the buy in over 47 years). You seem to have a lower cost basis. That’s fine. But that’s also why we disagree. A week this summer with the 30% discount that Disney offered on basically everything was $5,051. It was 276 points. With a cost basis of $21.21 it was $5,853 with points.

My calculations were based on 20 years of use, with a sale at the end of those 20 years. I didn’t increase dues nor did I increase the cash price of the room.

150 points (enough for roughly every other year in a 1 bedroom)
$30,800 (current offer price)
Factor in Dream it forward, magical beginnings, closing costs, dues (1st year), plus credit card offers. This brings the total to around $28,606

$26,580 (Dues over 20 years)

$20,024 (Resale after 20 years assuming 30% loss)

20 years total cost (contract cost + dues) = $55,186
20 years total after sale = $35,161
Per trip cost (10 trips) = $3,516

 

[keishashadow]

1. Specifically booked AS resorts two trips in a row to coincide with cheerleaders & dance competitions. DH & I now laugh about that sales tactic

2. Subsequently, bought 1st DVC, sight unseen. Then, did the same for two other resorts

3. Enjoy split stays outside the bubble, venturing to stay onsite at Universal, area beach towns or cruising.

4. We eat majority of our meals offsite.

5. Have taken up 'walking' after being shut out one time too many

 

[tidefan]

The bigger waste of space is the kitchen/bathroom set-up in the BLT studios, leaving a tiny sleeping space in the rest of the room. Hopefully the rehab will address that.

They best not change that! The kitchenette is by far the best thing about the BLT studios!

 

[CastAStone]

I would love to know how each of you determined your cost basis, if you would care to explain. I assume CastAStone used some math for this based on cost of alternatives and time value of money?

($price per point / (Geometric progression formula for 5% cost of capital with 47 time points)) + current dues (assumes dues rise in lockstep with hotel rates)

So $225 / ((0.95^47 - 1 ) / -.05) + $8.85 = $21.21

Insert your favorite TVM rate or take it to 46 years for UYs prior to October.

 

[Chili327]

Specifically booked AS resorts two trips in a row to coincide with cheerleaders & dance competitions. DH & I now laugh about that sales tactic

Why is that a sales tactic? Did they make offers when its busy, or was good time to negotiate with all the madness going on? lol

 

[Kingkonig]

($price per point / (Geometric progression formula for 5% cost of capital with 47 time points)) + current dues (assumes dues rise in lockstep with hotel rates)

So $225 / ((0.95^47 - 1 ) / -.05) + $8.85 = $21.21

Insert your favorite TVM rate or take it to 46 years for UYs prior to October.

Do dues and hotel rates usually rise in lockstep though? I would imagine that the hotel cash rates would be *somewhat* correlated, but somewhat higher than dues increases over the period of the life of the resorts. Probably a little harder to determine when a resort is a fully DVC resort like Saratoga or OKW are, but the deluxe resorts with a DVC add on would probably be easier to measure.

 

[CastAStone]

Do dues and hotel rates usually rise in lockstep though? I would imagine that the hotel cash rates would be *somewhat* correlated, but somewhat higher than dues increases over the period of the life of the resorts. Probably a little harder to determine when a resort is a fully DVC resort like Saratoga or OKW are, but the deluxe resorts with a DVC add on would probably be easier to measure.

I don’t know. The rack rates went through some extreme inflation in the early to mid 2010s. I think generally they’ve been pretty similar since. But I haven’t seen a good, multi-resort, longitudinal chart of rack rates, and I’m frankly not sure the data exists.

But if anyone knows where to find that, I’m happy to run the comparison.

 

[lowlight]

I think most people who buy DVC would have saved more money not owning DVC and taking the same number of trips paying cash or renting points.

Not only money, but hassle. DVC lost all of its appeal (for me) when it became easier and cheaper to be a renter than an owner.

 

[tx911]

Not only money, but hassle. DVC lost all of its appeal (for me) when it became easier and cheaper to be a renter than an owner.

Did you get out?

 

[gmi3804]

Confession: I still stalk my dates even after I have a confirmed reservation for the exact dates, room type, and resort that I wanted in the first place. "Just to see what's out there."

Building on this, every time I do this I think I'm going to his a wrong button and unwittingly cancel the entire booking. Never mind that I'd have to click two or three different times to actually cancel it.

 

[keishashadow]

Why is that a sales tactic? Did they make offers when its busy, or was good time to negotiate with all the madness going on? lol

Haha putting realtor hat on...

Let's just say the atmosphere there during those time periods was all the incentive needed to close the initial deal

No shade toward the actual AS resorts. We often do a couple nights there for bonus trips when no DVC availably and are happy as clams

 

[lowlight]

Did you get out?

We have an upcoming trip in December and then I will list them. Not sure how the resale market is doing lately.

 

[tx911]

We have an upcoming trip in December and then I will list them. Not sure how the resale market is doing lately.

I don't understand the math. Surely if you are staying deluxe every year DVC beats rack rates?

I hope you reconsider, so you can continue the rebellion against the reservation walking and commercial renting Empire