Downward trend in runDisney?

[rteetz]

I’d love to see a villains themed race and a race weekend that’s just generic Disney.

Paris just did Villains and it looked awesome.

One would argue WDW weekend is generic Disney with the Fab 5 and Dopey.

 

[IamTrike]

I seem to remember talk about the dip in 2017 full finishers at the time. That morning was really cold and I vaguely remember somebody saying that many Florida locals who had registered for the marathon woke up that morning, saw below freezing windchills, and just said nope. Somebody did some analysis suggesting that there were way fewer finishers from south Florida than usual. I could be misremembering though.

I remember seeing that information too at one point. I don't remember who did the geographic analysis but I do remember seeing it.

Love the thread so far and I agree that the runDisney races declines are probably due to many factors mentioned. The key is probably the cost combined with the other factors of one and done destination race (combine the relative duplication of the events in here) and they over saturated their own race schedule.

The graphs are great and it supports the original question of why the decline in runDisney participants. So if the dip in 2015 is real and race participants are increasing 2016-2018 then why are the WDW number flat.

I don't know that RD is really at a point where they could get many more people on the course during certain races. For the data up through 2018 I would guess that they wouldn't look at anything as material decline. Most if not all races in this time period sold out. A slower sell out is still a sell out. From a finance perspective I don't know that they have a lot of incentive to do things to sell out faster.

I think the real decline will show up in Marathon weekend 2019. Demand for this weekend has fallen below where all races sell out. It will be interesting to see if this continues into 2020. 2019 Princess is sold out through Disney, so while it didn't sell out as fast I don't think they would count a sold out race as a decline in runners. (yes I know there are still bibs available through TA's )

Paris just did Villains and it looked awesome.

One would argue WDW weekend is generic Disney with the Fab 5 and Dopey.

Yeah I think MW is the generic mickey Disney weekend. DL had a villians 10k during one of Dl half marathon weekends. The shirt from that race is one of my favorite.

 

[rteetz]

I think the real decline will show up in Marathon weekend 2019. Demand for this weekend has fallen below where all races sell out. It will be interesting to see if this continues into 2020. 2019 Princess is sold out through Disney, so while it didn't sell out as fast I don't think they would count a sold out race as a decline in runners. (yes I know there are still bibs available through TA's )

2020 does have 15th anniversary Goofy though. Princess is really the only weekend that consistently sells out. I think that weekend has the effect of moms, daughters, and friends who want to run a race together especially one geared towards women.

 

[Keels]

I seem to remember talk about the dip in 2017 full finishers at the time. That morning was really cold and I vaguely remember somebody saying that many Florida locals who had registered for the marathon woke up that morning, saw below freezing windchills, and just said nope. Somebody did some analysis suggesting that there were way fewer finishers from south Florida than usual. I could be misremembering though.

2017 also had the canceled half and they allowed people who were registered for the half the option to run the Full. They even set up an extra tent in the AK parking lot and had extra “parade busses” for people who wanted to drop after the half distance. I’m sure that played a part in skewed finisher numbers.

 

[PrincessV]

Haven't had time to read the other replies, but I'll get back here to do so eventually.

My thoughts? Overall decrease in race interest, not necessarily specific to Disney. rD races at WDW upped their caps significantly to handle the spike in distance running popularity and those higher caps are still mostly in place, so the overall decrease in interest looks like a huge drop-off. But back when I started running rD events in 2012, the PHM 5K was capped at 5,000 people (10,000+ in recent years), and I registered for it a month out. That was the norm, and I feel like things have just gone back to normal after an abnormal spike for a few years.

I think, gross generalization here, that social media drove exposure to the idea of rD races, got lots of folks who otherwise had no interest in running to try it out, and some of them loved it and have carried on, while plenty of others found out they hate running/don't have time in their lives for training/moved on to some other pursuit/etc. and have left the rD participant pool.

As for me, no plans to cut back unless the budget says "no." But I'm nearly local so it only costs me 1/4 tank of gas to get to WDW, and have no interest in running races outside of WDW. I'm perfectly happy running around my neighborhood the rest of the year.

 

[FFigawi]

2020 does have 15th anniversary Goofy though. Princess is really the only weekend that consistently sells out. I think that weekend has the effect of moms, daughters, and friends who want to run a race together especially one geared towards women.

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

 

[rteetz]

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

I agree I do think Dopey and goofy sell out in 2020 just maybe not very fast. I believe Goofy sold out for the 10th in 2016.

 

[SheHulk]

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

Personally I would never run Dopey but often consider Goofy. A half marathon followed by a marathon is a big enough challenge to me that it would be appealing to say I did it once. Adding on a 5k and 10k, the biggest challenge there is waking up 2 extra mornings at a godawful hour which is very unappealing. That’s just me but I’ll bet I’m not the only one. Someday I’ll get that Goofy medal.

 

[IamTrike]

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

I think because of the time and expense for a runDisney Race, and the amount of training for a full marathon, a lot of people look at it an think. We'll if I'm gonna do Goofy I might as well do Dopey and get all bling. In the past couple of years it's definitely seemed like the interest in Goofy is much smaller than Dopey.

 

[JeffW]

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

For me personally, I was kind of one and done with Dopey. I'll either go back to Goofy or just the Marathon for future years. This is probably because I'm not a morning person and coming from two time zones to the west, but the 2 additional early mornings for the 5k and the 10k are too much for the limited racing time. There's just so much more time bussing/queuing/etc than actually running for those days. I'd rather be less tired for the parks and invest in the half and full. But as you note, that may be a minority opinion.

 

[camaker]

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

I think it depends on what the individuals want from their experience. As a one and done or destination type race, I think Dopey carries the day. I think it can change if you are looking at making the weekend a routine thing. I did the 10k + Goofy in 2016, not knowing about the Dopey hoopla. So I came back in 2017 to run Dopey and got the half cancelled out from under me. 2018 was finally the year to complete Dopey. I'd love to do Dopey again this year, but I've sunk so many $$$ and vacation days into the last 3 years that I chose Goofy to conserve a little bit.

 

[snuggly duckling]

2019 will be the first year that I'm not registered for all the WDW race weekends since 2015. Related to cost, but something I haven't seen mentioned on the thread yet (apologies if it was, I'm reading at work with my boss sitting 2 feet away), is the lack of a deferral option. I don't love how expensive the races are, but I'm willing to pay it if I know I can attend or at least defer if life gets in the way. Registration opens so early for the rD races that the rest of my life isn't scheduled out that far yet. So I can't register right when weekends open because I don't know my schedule, my kids' schedules, my husband's schedule, etc. Once things get solidified a little later, I may be able to register if it's still open. But I'm also not traveling all the way to Florida and not doing all the races. So for me in 2019, I am definitely in for Princess and hopefully W&D but out for Marathon and Star Wars due to conflicts with kid stuff.

 

[GreatLakes]

Other than race retreat what adds on are there?

That stupid spectator package is one. I also remember the absolutely ridiculous "Welcome Party" they had for the 2015 W&D which was probably a worse way to spend money than just wiping yourself with it and dropping it in the porta potty. I feel like I'm missing some from over the years but I would have to go back and do some Googling.

 

[rteetz]

That stupid spectator package is one. I also remember the absolutely ridiculous "Welcome Party" they had for the 2015 which was probably a worse way to spend money than just wiping yourself with it and dropping it in the porta potty. I feel like I'm missing some from over the years but I would have to go back and do some Googling.

They tried a resort packet pick up option which actually wasn’t a terrible idea if one wanted to avoid the expo but that didn’t work out. Personally I don’t think runDisney does nearly the amount of add ons they could like the parks do.

 

[FFigawi]

They tried a resort packet pick up option which actually wasn’t a terrible idea if one wanted to avoid the expo but that didn’t work out. Personally I don’t think runDisney does nearly the amount of add ons they could like the parks do.

I'd gladly pay to have my bibs and shirts waiting for me at my resort, but I completely understand why they have not offered this again. Vendors depend on foot traffic, and every person who pays Disney money to skip the expo is one less potential customer walking around shopping. Plus, given the requirement for a photograph of Goofy and Dopey runners, they'd have to find a way to take those pictures elsewhere, and that's a rather large logistical challenge.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Do people really care that much about Goofy by itself anymore? With Dopey in the picture now, it seems like the majority of the people who were attracted to Goofy have moved over to Dopey. I can see how people with limited funds and vacation time would opt for Goofy over Dopey, but they're in the minority these days. I'll be impressed if Goofy sells out for 2020 in a short amount of time.

I have alternated years between Goofy and Dopey. The extra wake-ups for Dopey are my turn-off. I still like them both and am glad that Goofy is still an option.

 

[ChattaDIS]

People try to cheat the system/cut the course/whatever at more than just Disney races though. It seems like every week I'm reading about DQ's and course cutters at all sorts of races all over. People cheating to try to qualify for Boston happens all over. To me Disney isn't any more open to that kind of stuff than any other races.

I agree that people cheat every where, usually with different motivations. If people cut the course or cheat to get into Boston, it doesn't influence my choice whether to run a race because it doesn't really impact my experience. I think there are some parts of Disney that are different where this is a much bigger issue with people improperly placing themselves in corals, grouping up on the course causing a lot of crowding and other things that is worse than other races. I'm not sure what you can do about this or whether it is a RunDisney or Runner issue but I think it does contribute to some people labeling it as a one and done experience.

I think RunDisney has a great product and definitely think it is the best way to get into the sport, this is just a negative to the experience that I think you have to account for.[/QUOTE]​

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Also are you or do you see yourself cutting back on runDisney and why?

I think there are a few factors.

1. Cost
2. Value for the dollar
3. Overall decrease in running races worldwide
4. Non-anniversary years

I still love WDW, and I still love running, but we are cutting back on WDW for a few years. For the first time in a very long time we will not be racing with you guys in January. We will be back for the SW races in April, but won't be going into the parks. My son wants to run it with me before shipping out (Navy). For us, the two are connected and we won't be doing another race weekend without going into the parks.

So, our reason for the cutback is the price - not of rD, but of a WDW trip. We live over 1000 miles away, as do many of you, and the cost of even a 4 day trip is over $5k for us. While we can afford it, we have just decided to spend our money elsewhere for a while. We will come back when all of the new construction is complete, get annual passes, and discover WDW all over again. At that point we will start rD racing again. But if rD started a new race with a theme that interested me, I would reconsider my plans.

That is all my way of saying that rD needs to mix it up. People go to WDW for a lot of reasons. This is a destination race, but not like NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc. It has no prestige as a race - the prestige comes from WDW. So, how do you get people to come to WDW and race? More importantly, how do you get the same people to want to come back year after year?

The last five or six WDW Marathons that I have run have all looked and felt the same. The character experiences were the same. The mile markers were the same. The music was the same. All of my pictures from those years - they all look identical. The only thing that has differed is the weather.

If rD wants me to keep coming back, they can't take me for granted. They need to do something to either incentivize repeat runners or (preferably) change up the things that drew me to these races years ago.

Just one man's experience.

 

[Keels]

That stupid spectator package is one. I also remember the absolutely ridiculous "Welcome Party" they had for the 2015 which was probably a worse way to spend money than just wiping yourself with it and dropping it in the porta potty. I feel like I'm missing some from over the years but I would have to go back and do some Googling.

Are you talking about the one at Disneyland Half for the Anniversary? I went to that one and felt it was way worth the money because all the big rides were open and you got a no-crowds viewing of Paint the Night. For $79 it was a steal.

 

[GreatLakes]

Are you talking about the one at Disneyland Half for the Anniversary? I went to that one and felt it was way worth the money because all the big rides were open and you got a no-crowds viewing of Paint the Night. For $79 it was a steal.

No, it was W&D. It was $100+ for like $15 worth of value.