Does the Banker know what is in the suitcases?

[Mom-to-3]

On Deal or No Deal, is the banker just going by the odds?

Or does he know what is in the chosen suitcase?

 

[Slacking]

I assume the money is calculated based on the remaining totals left and the overall odds.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I don't think the banker knows.

 

[samijam]

I think the banker knows it's a game show

 

[robinb]

I assume the bankers knows. I read the rules quickly last night and I didn't see anything about the amounts being secret from everyone.

 

[Caradana]

The banker's offer is usually a lot lower than the expected value of the reward. For example, let's say there's $0.01 and $1,000,000 left on the board. The expected value is (1,000,000+.01)/(number of prizes left) = 1,000,000.01/2 = about $500K. Imagine it this way - if you made the choice a thousand times, about half the time you'd pick the 0.01 and half you'd pick $1,000,000. The average of your prizes would be about $500K.

The banker usually offers about $300K given that circumstance. The reason is that we attach "bonus value" to certainty.
I think the banker has an algorithm that computes the expectation and subtracts some fraction of that due to the value of certainty.
I don't think that "knowing what's in the suitcase" drives his offers, because given a case where the banker knows the player is holding a $0.01 suitcase, he'd never offer the player more than $0.01 to leave the game. The banker would be inclined to keep offering him lowballs because he'd know what the outcome will be when the player kept declining the low offers and winding up with his own suitcase.

 

[Caradana]

OH one other thing: sometimes the banker's offers surprise me from a psychological perspective, which is why I think they come from an algorithm. For example, there was some show last week where the expected value of the case was $500K, and the banker offered $349K. I think the player would've been much more inclined to take the deal if the offer had been just a thousand dollars higher ($350K). Think about it - doesn't $100K seem drastically higher than $99K, from your gut response? Does a 1 carat diamond seem more impressive than a .99c?

 

[kathy387]

Last night I could have swore that I heard Howie say that it was put into the suitcases by a third party and only that party knew what was in each case. It was at the begining of the show when he was explaining how things work.

 

[nliedel]

The banker does not know. He does not have to know the suitcase the money is in his offers are based on odds alone. The show is interesting. I think it will be very rare for someone to win the million.

 

[roseprincess]

A little OT, I didn't get to see last night's show. How did that mom of 7 kids do?

Rosemarie

 

[Toby'sFriend]

I don't think that "knowing what's in the suitcase" drives his offers, because given a case where the banker knows the player is holding a $0.01 suitcase, he'd never offer the player more than $0.01 to leave the game. The banker would be inclined to keep offering him lowballs because he'd know what the outcome will be when the player kept declining the low offers and winding up with his own suitcase.

But that is assuming that the banker has no motive other than to get the contestant to accept an amount lower than the expected value.

The "Banker" works for the Game Show and the Network. Games Shows produce higher ratings by creating excitement and giving away large cash prizes. Higher Ratings = Increased revenue for the Network via advertising. The network wants excited screaming people who make good deals, because it is fun to watch.

It is just like Jeapordy or Survivor or other shows, the amount spent on the prizes is really not ultra-significant to the profitability of the show. Compare what they give away to what the Cast of Friends used to make... NBC used to pay around $7 million to $8 million per episode in salaries for that show.

 

[Jennasis]

I don't think he knows. Howie actually said last night that the amounts are placed into the cases by a third party. Of course, it IS a tv show and it IS possible the banker could be that 3rd party ;-)

 

[nliedel]

I don't think he knows. Howie actually said last night that the amounts are placed into the cases by a third party. Of course, it IS a tv show and it IS possible the banker could be that 3rd party ;-)

Probably not. Game shows are VERY carefully regulated since the 50's when several game shows were found to be rigged. The FCC carefully regulates game shows to make them very fair. If the banker knew the amounts he could manipulte the contestants and therefore affect the outcome.

 

[Disney1fan2002]

I believe Howie Mandel has said that NOBODY knows what is in each suitcase.

Now, that being said, I have been watching the models faces/reactions just before they reveal what is in their case, and I am beginning to believe that the models know what their case holds.

 

[Disney1fan2002]

I don't think he knows. Howie actually said last night that the amounts are placed into the cases by a third party. Of course, it IS a tv show and it IS possible the banker could be that 3rd party ;-)

It would be very easy for the person filling the suitcases to not know what's in them. They can fill the suitcases, shuffle them around, and then put the numbers on them.

 

[roseprincess]

A little OT, I didn't get to see last night's show. How did that mom of 7 kids do?

Rosemarie

Should I guess that mom of 7 didn't win much money last night?

Never quoted myself before.

Rosemarie

 

[Toby'sFriend]

I can't remember exactly, I think she ended up somewhere around $75k.

 

[roseprincess]

I can't remember exactly, I think she ended up somewhere around $75k.

Thanks!

 

[Slacking]

Her winnings was in the 80K range.

Not bad considering her suitcase had $75 in it.

 

[wvjules]

I thought during the first episode during the first week, Howie said that no one knew what was in the suitecases, including the banker.