). Any insights?
Resort fullness has nothing to do with crowds. We were there over spring break and our resort was not very busy but as expected, parks were pretty full. And we've also been when our resort has been jam packed and parks were ghost towns, granted that was closer to park reopening but our resort was a hot mess and the parks were empty. We book many of our trips 1-2 months out. My advice would be to keep checking and maybe try some alternatives like non-disney resorts like Swan/Dolphin or Disney springs area properties. Also, check third party sites like price line or hotels dot com.Most crowd calendars are predicting the week of Dec 11th to be a bit busier than the previous week, but there is more availability for resorts then. The previous week is pretty sparse in finding openings (which I get I'm doing this only 2 months in advance
I went first week of December 2021, mid week. Never seen anything that crowded. Never again.
I don't think anything in late 2021 and early 2022 can be used as typical norm given travel was off the rails. I think those days are over and feel we're headed to more normal travel/crowd predictors. Nobody knows for sure but in many years, the first two weeks of December is much lighter than closer to Christmas. It's like the crazy crowds we had in Feb earlier this year, it was like Spring Break and totally unexpected. Nobody saw that coming. All those cancelled/postponed trips were all rebooked at the same time lol.
I mean, Bob literally said demand has shown no signs of slowing. So, I don't see why December 2021 would be wildly different than December 2022 unless they open a 5th gate in the next two months. That crowd level was bananas. Even if it's down 10%, I'm out.
So over the last 5-10 years, summer has lost a lot of the crazy crowds. Summer is really not peak, it's not value or low season but it's not as heavy as all resorts are priced higher in November than summer in anticipation of those crowds. We've been to Disney in November, not around thanksgiving but early and mid-November and it's fairly crowded. Our trip around Jersey Week was definitely busier and more crowded than mid November and felt heavier than summer but I would say, the positive of not as hot weather makes it very enjoyable. We go when it's crowded just due to our availability with kids in school and even crazy crowds are manageable so long as you plan accordingly and are patient.
I think it's already started to slow. I could be in the minority on this but there are unique pin codes going out, which we haven't seen in a long long time... so I while I know Disney isn't going to be empty any time soon, the tide is definitely turning given the economy/inflation and folks not having as much cash to travel. The Q2 earnings report shared that comment and the most major analysts saw that pull back, flight bookings have decreased every month since May and spending for items like travel, dining, fun stuff is down to half of what it was in the beginning of 2022. I don't want to see the downturn, but it's here and so long as rates keep moving up by the Fed, they'll keep inching up until they crash the jobs market and have unemployment rates around 5-7% so they can "curb inflation". I also think the number of kids back in school and not doing any sort of virtual since most school districts don't offer it, puts parents back at the mercy of traveling when kids are out of session. I love Disney at Christmas time but I like November crowds more than December for sure, so I'm with you on that.
My guess is it won't be as crowded this year as last. We went the first week in December 2019 and it didn't seem that busy to me but that was also my first time
Agree, I was there part of the first week in December and into the second week last year (2020, too - but that was different). I was rather shocked at how busy it was! Especially compared to pre-pandemic.
