Does Lack of ROFR Degrade Your DVC Ownership?

[Robbie Cottam]

I think the average family income is around $74,000.

OK, just makes my point even more valid.....
Thanks

 

[Sandisw]

Has anyone thought this might have something to do with Iger and they whole parent company having to cut expenses everywhere? To ROFR takes cash on DVDs part - and they may have had direction from up the chain that they need to make cuts and focus the spend on new builds.

Who knows the exact reason why they have virtually stopped buying back contracts but what I do know is that the goals for it change all the time and why ROFR has never been predictable...

Between 2022 and 2024, they will have put 4 brand new projects up for sale, as well have plenty of points available to sell at RIV and AUL....so, they really have no need to buy points for the purpose of sales...even if they have a buyer waiting in the wings...

As I shared, having people waiting for them to get points is nothing new....waitlists have been around for years and many times, people were on them for quite a long time before getting the call that they had them..

Too many low deals have gotten through...CCV @ $119 comes to mind...and if you look at the direct sales reports, many of the resorts have buyers buying.

So, it certainly does indicate that the goal right now is not worrying about what is happening to point prices on the resale market and focusing in on buyers who want the active resorts.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Qwners of Aulani are going to take the biggest hit unless they bought to go to Hawaii every year. Everybody is going to book a room at their home resort prior to the 7 month window opening up just to ensure they get a room. People who own less popular resorts (SS, OKW, AKL ) will pretty much be "stuck" at their home resort with minimal options to find a room at a more popular resort when the 7 month window opens.

Or, and hear me out, since it coincides with the expiration of a bunch of unpopular resorts, like VB and most of OKW, it will basically be a wash.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I am going to disagree that DVD will ROFR because they have a buyer waiting, They had waitlists for years for VGC and not once did they ROFR.

They have a lot of points and options for the direct buyer right now and for the few sales they might loose if they can’t sell them a specific sold out resort, they make up with the others,

I kind of think that’s because the gap between the buy price and the sell price was just too low for it to be worth it for Disney. Same reason they didn’t exercise right of first refusal on beach club for so many years.

The interesting thing about Grand Californian is that it pretty much entirely disproves the idea that without ROFR the bottom will fall out of pricing

Has anyone thought this might have something to do with Iger and they whole parent company having to cut expenses everywhere? To ROFR takes cash on DVDs part - and they may have had direction from up the chain that they need to make cuts and focus the spend on new builds.

Yes. It may not be specific direction from Bob, who has bigger fish to fry, but more the overall change in the company’s attitudes towards spending and cash.

But I think the biggest reason is that they bought too many points last year, and with bookings way down, they’re having trouble filling the rooms with cash guests.

 

[Sandisw]

Or, and hear me out, since it coincides with the expiration of a bunch of unpopular resorts, like VB and most of OKW, it will basically be a wash.

Not sure because those points were competing only at 7 months as well. So, while those places will be gone, it doesn't apply to the WDW point owners booking their home resort and whether or not those owners are going to be able to move around with the ease as they do now.

If I am an SSR owner and book my home resort, and I want to go elsewhere, there has to be an owner there who wants to move out...with the popular resorts of BRV, BCV, and BWV gone, I think that it is going to be harder for any of the resale owners to swap around to different places.

And, remember, that while VB and HH points will be gone, you still have more direct points being added in that still have access to what will be those O7 DVC resorts....so I definitely think its going to be harder.

 

[Sandisw]

I kind of think that’s because the gap between the buy price and the sell price was just too low for it to be worth it for Disney. Same reason they didn’t exercise right of first refusal on beach club for so many years.

The interesting thing about Grand Californian is that it pretty much entirely disproves the idea that without ROFR the bottom will fall out of pricing

Yes. It may not be specific direction from Bob, who has bigger fish to fry, but more the overall change in the company’s attitudes towards spending and cash.

But I think the biggest reason is that they bought too many points last year, and with bookings way down, they’re having trouble filling the rooms with cash guests.

That may be true but the point was that they do not use ROFR for one sale....if they have a reason for not ROFRing points, then one buyer is not going to force them to do it....especially when they are now passing on deals that are quite low in certain cases.

Again, VGC and BCV are great examples because they obviously were not worried about losing those sales or to keep people waiting.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

That may be true but the point was that they do not use ROFR for one sale....if they have a reason for not ROFRing points, then one buyer is not going to force them to do it....especially when they are now passing on deals that are quite low in certain cases.

Yes I agree with that. There has to be enough waiting or likely buyers and enough of a gap between resale on direct prices for it to be worth it for Disney to start ROFRing again.

With the prices they’ve raised Old Key West, Saratoga Springs, and Animal Kingdom Lodge to, the price gap might be there, but I am not sure how much direct demand they will have moving forward.

 

[Jwaire]

Degrade my membership? No, but it may prevent me from adding on points until I see what the end game is.

Like others have speculated, I think it's mostly related to lack of free cash flow due to underperforming divisions (like DTC) within the company.

Additionally, DVC is part of the Disney Signature Experiences business unit. That unit alone has already committed billions to building two new cruise ships (The Treasure and Triton-class #3), just purchased another third-party ship, the Golden Dream, on a whim and is currently designing/building the Cotino community in Rancho Mirage, CA. That's a lot of capital tied up.

(Here's hoping Iger nixes Cotino soon enough, talk about not core to Disney's businesses.)

You also have to take in DVC leadership into account. DVC's goals and roadmap tends to change every few years with each leadership change.

Bill Diercksen has different goals than Terri Schultz. Schultz had different goals than Ken Potrock, etc.

If leadership was consistent more than a year or two, we'd probably have Newport Coast, Eagle Pines, National Harbor and Reflections by now.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Hot Take: They will start ROFR again once they get past the Hulu mess. VGC will be ROFR’d once the remodel is complete as a way to promote the less expensive VDH.

 

[RoseGold]

Hot Take: They will start ROFR again once they get past the Hulu mess. VGC will be ROFR’d once the remodel is complete as a way to promote the less expensive VDH.

Even if they ROFRed every VGC contract, it wouldn't move the needle. VGC is too small.

The problem is the millions of poitns they are still sitting on from RIV and AUL. And they still can't sell out tiny VGF2.

Poly2 and the Trailers are about to go up, and that is millions and millions more points.

Of course they aren't ROFRing. They have millions of points they need to sell. That's not going to change even if Hulu prints money next year.

 

[take36]

Poly2 and the Trailers are about to go up, and that is millions and millions more points.

"Trailers" lol ouch

 

[RoseGold]

"Trailers" lol ouch

Sorry, Trailers at Fort Wilderness TFW. I didn't even name it that! That's the board consensus.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Even if they ROFRed every VGC contract, it wouldn't move the needle. VGC is too small.

The problem is the millions of poitns they are still sitting on from RIV and AUL. And they still can't sell out tiny VGF2.

Poly2 and the Trailers are about to go up, and that is millions and millions more points.

Of course they aren't ROFRing. They have millions of points they need to sell. That's not going to change even if Hulu prints money next year.

You can’t look at it through WDW glasses. Having some inventory of $320+pp VGC will make it much easier to sell $230pp VDH and then you have Aulani as the trade down in the high $190s with incentives.

Rivera, VGF, Poly2, Cabins…. They mean very little to most Disneyland visitors.

 

[RoseGold]

You can’t look at it through WDW glasses. Having some inventory of $320+pp VGC will make it much easier to sell $230pp VDH and then you have Aulani as the trade down in the high $190s with incentives.

Rivera, VGF, Poly2, Cabins…. They mean very little to most Disneyland visitors.

But you can, because WDW is the lens. And the lens that matters with all the new builds. All of VGC is only 1.1M points. SSR alone is over 14M.

What happens at VGC is irrelevant to the rest of the system, it's been an outlier for a long time.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure how much DLT is sold through...

 

[Cybertruck]

Trailers at Fort Wilderness TFW. I didn't even name it that! That's the board consensus.

WOW! I am excited about this new offering. But was thinking Tiny Home not Trailers! We would use our Saratoga SAP.

Almost afraid to read it, but what thread was this?

 

[E2ME2]

"Trailers" lol ouch

We love the look of the artist-rendering for the FW "Trailers"!
We sold our Camp-Site in 2019 to buy more DVC;
it consisted of a 39' "Park Model Trailer - RV" on a leased property in Mercersburg PA.
Before making the shift, we went looking for places near Orlando to move our Park Model.
We were unsuccessful, and eventually sold it outright to buy DVC Points with the proceeds.
We are happy with this lifestyle shift in retirement, spending Winter in WDW, but when we saw this announcement the DW and I both smiled and agreed that we have to stay here. It will be "Glamping Nostalgia" for us !!!

 

[RoseGold]

WOW! I am excited about this new offering. But was thinking Tiny Home not Trailers! We would use our Saratoga SAP.

Almost afraid to read it, but what thread was this?

https://www.disboards.com/threads/ft-wilderness-cabins-becoming-dvc.3916819/post-64766601

 

[AstroBlasters]

But you can, because WDW is the lens. And the lens that matters with all the new builds. All of VGC is only 1.1M points. SSR alone is over 14M.

What happens at VGC is irrelevant to the rest of the system, it's been an outlier for a long time.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure how much DLT is sold through...

I hypothesize WDW (possibly the entire east coast of the country) is mostly irrelevant to the majority (51%+) of VDH buyers… it is not the lens.

Having some small bank of VGC points would help sell VDH and AUL because it creates different price categories for DL focused direct buyers.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

If I wanted to goto Disney and stay in a trailer, I would drag one behind me and drive there.....
The "NEW" cabins should be more cabin like and less trailer like or DVC will have an AUL sized sales issue

 

[Unclelude]

"The Trailers" might be my new favorite DVC moniker... thank you!