Do you think prices will continue to rise or come back down?

[MistisoMan]

My wife and I are ready to buy our first contract. We don't think the benefits of a blue card outweigh the price break of resale and I was actually going to place a few offers... Then I started looking at the ROFR threads. It looks like prices have gone up pretty steadily over time and especially over the last year. So now I am wondering if it is actually a bad time to buy.

Anyone have any guesses as to what will happen to prices in the short/long term?

 

[Sandisw]

Hard to say but my guess is they will start to stabilize. I don’t see a drop anytime soon.

 

[MistisoMan]

Hard to say but my guess is they will start to stabilize. I don’t see a drop anytime soon.

I don't mind a stabilization if this is "the new normal". I'm just a constant second guesser and buying anything at an all time high has never been easy for me.

 

[Matty B13]

From what I've observed but I only really watch AKV and VGF contracts, is that prices are starting to turn a little bit lower compared to the sky high prices from this summer. This happens in most years though heading into Fall, only to go back up starting rise again after New Years. I think that for a real dip in resale prices to happen is the the whole US economy will have to hit a recession and then all prices will start to fall.

 

[MistisoMan]

snip

Thanks for the insight Matty. Main point I'm getting from your thoughts is that unless another major market downturn comes around, I should try to buy before the spike which typically comes about with the new year?

 

[BlackTea]

I feel it is coming down, and will continue downwards. Just look at the active listing on the biggest resale site, there were only 100 something two months ago, now? >400. The supply/demand is shifting…

 

[DVChris]

It’s possible that some might decide to sell or downsize after their visit for the 50th anniversary, especially if they don’t like all the changes, price increases, etc. This combined with the bill for annual maintenance fees coming later this year could move the market down a little bit.
Having said that, I think there is still plenty of demand for points selling at good prices. If you see a well priced contract, go for it!

 

[fixerupper]

I can just say in the spring and summer the contracts I was watching for were pretty much non existent. Now, there are three or four that are perfect for what I want that have been sitting and reducing for a month or more. They are still too high in my opinion but if I were more serious, I'd give an offer more in line with what I see on the ROFR thread. But it really isn't the right time right now for me. So, in summary, I am seeing more availability sitting for longer and the crazy high prices slowly being reduced.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I think prices will go down over the next couple of years for the following reasons:

1. Disney making very bad decisions revealing what they really think of customers/making Disney vacations less appealing in every way
2. The economy has been bobbing along on stimulus money that many people were using to buy things like dvc and cryptocurrencies. Lol. This is coming to an end.
3. Government/media is continuing to destabilize society by not allowing things to just get back to normal/continuation of fear
4. Many people are starting to downsize their futures (early retirement/downsizing careers) because of what has happened over the last year and a half and what is continuing to happen

 

[DVChris]

Based on these charts, price per point for sales in August were lower than the prior two months.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-august-2021/

 

[AdamsMum]

I don't mind a stabilization if this is "the new normal". I'm just a constant second guesser and buying anything at an all time high has never been easy for me.

As long as DVC direct prices keep increasing, which they do with alarming regularity, I think resale prices will keep in step.

That said, I see some resale contracts that really aren't a good value, considering stripped points and restrictions. I only look at small contracts though there seems to be a larger spread when the contract has a higher number of points.

 

[AdamsMum]

Based on these charts, price per point for sales in August were lower than the prior two months.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-august-2021/

I don't see the size of the contracts in that article. I think there's a huge difference between a contract of 250 or more, and one of 100 - 150. I haven't done extensive research but I've been checking resalers lately and smaller contracts seem to be approaching direct prices.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Just out of curiosity, I just looked at SSR small points contracts on several resale sites (including site sponsor), and there are 25-50 point contracts, loaded and bare, going for almost $170.00 per point (multiple at $166-$169). That's only $10.00 less than direct add-on.

 

[MICKIMINI]

A year and a half ago, I was sure prices would go down - and they did, a bit but didn't crash. We snapped up numerous small contracts 25-50 points at great prices. All the contracts will now fetch about 40-50% more than we paid. I'm waiting on points from one and haven't even closed on one of the last two bought recently. Deals though few and far between, are out there if you know what you are looking for. Prices may stabilize but I don't think they will go down.

So my point is you have to be ready to negotiate the minute you see "your" deal. Most of the time, my successful purchases have been due to being the first buyer to make an offer and not being afraid of losing out if the seller said no or didn't want to negotiate. Write down your dream contract on paper and keep it handy so you don't second guess yourself. It's a business deal, don't get emotional and don't let a broker bully you. Good luck!

 

[I Run Long]

I don't see the size of the contracts in that article. I think there's a huge difference between a contract of 250 or more, and one of 100 - 150. I haven't done extensive research but I've been checking resalers lately and smaller contracts seem to be approaching direct prices.

I actually saw a small 50 point AKV contract listed at direct prices on a resale site. Crazy!

 

[DonMacGregor]

I actually saw a small 50 point AKV contract listed at direct prices on a resale site. Crazy!

See my post above...

 

[GoingSince1990]

Short-term? Nobody knows. Don’t buy based upon short-term predictions.
Long-term? Disney is an amazingly smart and successful corporation, with masses of talent and loyalty among their management and employees, packing people into their parks and hotels even in these troubled times. As the pandemic recedes and international travellers return, I expect hotel demand and pricing to continue on an upward trajectory, and thaf is a major driver of DVC pricing.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think we will start to see a price retraction. Contracts are already staying on the market longer and we are also seeing many contracts that say reduced. I completely agree blue card perks do not out way resale. If I was buying now I would only do resale and for me that includes RIV. I would wait until dues come out as you typically see alot of contracts get listed then and with all the changes and reduced benefits you may see many owners who were on the fence to leave dvc or sell some contracts.
Best of luck and I agree with resale. Blue card is not worth it anymore in my opinion.

 

[Sparky984]

I actually saw a small 50 point AKV contract listed at direct prices on a resale site. Crazy!

I saw one for BRV too ($190!) AND the site still showed a $6k savings! Either they lie or can’t do math. Either way, I’ll never use them!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

As long as DVC direct prices keep increasing, which they do with alarming regularity, I think resale prices will keep in step.

Though with each new direct resort, their timeline is extended out into the future. Resale contracts keep getting shorter.

That said, I see some resale contracts that really aren't a good value, considering stripped points and restrictions. I only look at small contracts though there seems to be a larger spread when the contract has a higher number of points.

The prices people pay for Beach Club resale are mind-boggling to me.