Do you think Disney would drop # of points for cruises?

[teachermommy78]

I've been thinking about different scenarios, etc. with the new resale policy. Do you think (or has there already been speculation) that Disney might drop points needed for cruises or other trips stripped by the new policy? As of now, it's not a very big deal as the points needed for these things are so high many choose not to use points on them. But, in the future, if more ships, etc. are added (and if demand drops a bit), do you think Disney would drop the point requirement in order to boost sale of direct purchase? I haven't purchased DVC at this point. We're going in June for a tour, and my husband and I have discussed resale at length. If something like this WERE to happen, I would buy direct from Disney in a heartbeat. Any ideas? Forgive me if this has been discussed already or if I'm naive for thinking this way! DVC is new to me, and I'm certainly not well versed in it!

 

[erionm]

I do not believe they would lower the number of points necessary for a cruise or any other exchange. DVC has to pay the cruise line for the stateroom and they recover that cost by turning over a villa to CRO to rent out for cash. If they reduced the number of points necessary, they may not be able to cover the cost of the exchange from the proceeds of the cash rental.

 

[Brian Noble]

It is possible, but I think unlikely. It is possible that many folks who *would* have exchanged for a cruise no longer will be able to, and that reduces the number of rooms in the cost-recovery rental pool. Lower supply means that CRO would possibly not have to discount as aggressively to move the inventory available, increasing the per-point revenue yield.

However, I think it is likely that resale purchasers are generally more informed at the point of purchase than developer purchasers. They certainly did not buy in the heat of the moment, and had to go out and find the resale market. Therefore, I suspect that most resale buyers have done enough homework to realize that the cruises are generally poor uses of points, and did not buy with that use-case in mind. So, I'm going to guess that most of the cruise exchanges come from developer-purchase accounts.

Even if the exchange value goes up, it is unlikely to cross the cash threshold when you account for all costs. There is a lot of friction in the cruise exchange process---in particular, CRO gets a cut of the revenue for their marketing expenses, etc. I suspect it will almost always be better to rent the use of your points out and use the cash for the cruise you desire.

 

[JWG]

I'd say, no. I doubt points to cruise will ever go down. Maybe, but unlikely.
Just look at Adventures by Disney.

 

[ChiSoxKeith]

If Disney Cruise Line had a problem filling state rooms on the Wonder & the Magic (with demand driving towards the new Dream and Fantasy), then you could see the number of DVC points go down.

 

[csharpwv]

The demand for Disney cruises will not go down with new ships coming on board.
The demand will remain solid - with some possible seasonal lulls.

But, DVC isn't going to drop the number of points - it just doesn't make sense for them or for members.

The ability to exchange points OUT of your home DVC resort is a member perk - and not at all guaranteed anywhere.

Cruises aren't a bad use of points, it all depends on what time of year you choose to go. If you are going on a cruise in mid-summer - YES it isn't as great of a price as a villa or paying cash for a cruise. Cruises CAN be a very good use of points.

For someone that owns a minimal number of point (160 or so) a Cruise is a bit out of reach for a family. But, for owners that have 500+ points - a cruise is another great vacation option. Cruises are all inclusive - so when you calculate your cost of a week at WDW (Food, tickets, extras) and then calculate the cost of an all inclusive cruise - you'll see that yes, you may be spending more 'points' - but overall you are spending less cash.

So when someone says that cruises aren't a great use of points - it all depends on a particular person's use habits - and how they budget.

Is cruise pricing via points fair? I think it is.

But anyway - back to inventory - The Wonder is now in its permanent home - the Dream is now it its permanent home - but the Fantasy will come online - and that will push the Magic somewhere. Disney isn't likely to keep the Magic, the Fantasy, and the Dream at port Canaveral. It will be moved - so the inventory overall out of Port Canaveral will increase some - but it will increase to back fill the demand that has always been there, especially for peak summer seasons and holidays. Disney isn't going to have trouble filling their ships - it hasn't been a problem, and I don't think it will become one.

Should DVC and DCL partner up to fill available inventory when it exists - ABSOLUTELY! If DCL sees that at 6 months out they have a specific off peak season sailing that is only at 50% capacity - I think it would be wise of DVC to step up and offer some promotional point reduction for a specific sailing to open up some summer and peak inventory.

There are a lot of balance variables that come into play - and fractional ownership - especially without assigned use weeks - it can be like the game of giant block Jenga I saw played in Diversions Lounge on my most recent cruise! HAHA

 

[Anthony1971]

I would doubt it a few years ago (2009) they ran a promotion for 99.00 per person plus tax for a 3 night cruise. The certificates were given out earlier in the year on cruises. I paid three hundered fifty some odd dollars (3 people) plus got a 3 catagory upgrade.
In other words why give DVC a discount they have our cash and know we are coming back much wiser to generate new repeat cash paying customers...
It would not be a wise move to pay retail to ONLY be able to trade your points for a cruise.. If you wnated BLT or maybe the new GFV that is different

 

[Dean]

I agree that it's not likely they'll go down but they likely would have gone up more without this change. Ultimately it depends on the affect the changes have. Historically the cruise options are a zero sum situation where enough points are collected, units reserved then rented through CRO, CRO takes their cut (? 50%) and the remainder is used to pay for the cruises. Some units are not rented as well, at times historically it's been around 25% not rented according to what a VP told me a few years ago. If they have a deficit one year, they make it up the next. There are 2 main factors on the DVC side, that of how many actually exchange for cruises (same principles apply to all cash type exchanges) and how many people decide to keep their points instead of selling due to a potentially lower sales return. Of course there are other factors that are outside DVC including the DCL contract price and the CRO rental factors.

 

[n2mm]

Nope, Disney only knows how to go UP (not down).

 

[DVCconvert]

Do you think Disney would drop # of points for cruises?

Nope. Not untill and IF demand were to decline.

 

[crisi]

Nope. Not untill and IF demand were to decline.

Demand for DCL would need to decline, but at the same time, the demand for DVC rooms would have to go up in order to pay for the DCL rooms. With as many DVC rooms as have been added, and as many ways for Disney and their guests to access DVC inventory (everything from private rentals to developer inventory), I don't think the demand for DVC rooms that have been turned over to CRO is likely to be sufficient to drive down point costs for Disney Collection trades.

 

[Dean]

Nope. Not untill and IF demand were to decline.

This is true to a degree but not because they are running DCL exchanges as a for profit item on DVC's side at least.

 

[Donut23]

Just a guess....

Keep an eye on the Wonder and her Mexican Riviera cruises. They have dropped Mazatlan but are staying put on the west coast in spite of the violence in Mexico.

Her winter ports are limited compared the many options in the Caribberan and East Coast.

Perhaps the Wonder will pickup guests from the cruiselines who have bailed on West Coast cruises (Carnival and Royal Caribbean).


I think that will be your best best for cruise deals right now.