Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[DLgal]

I'll piggy-back on this to note:

The state's description of what Green tier might be isn't wide open. They're saying it'll come with some social distancing guidelines. I'm curious to see if that means 50% capacity or 75% capacity, but I can't imagine they'll go straight from 35% to 100%. (And who knows if/when it'll get back to 100%.)

My guess would be 75-100% capacity BUT with masks and distancing continuing.

 

[DLgal]

It's also the staffing part of the process. I mean, it took a pretty long while to get through the APs - feels like it'd be smarter not to try to do everything all at once. (Especially since people will almost certainly go ballistic if they decide to refund passes - I think a lot people have been expecting to be able to bypass whatever method they use to start selling new tickets, and are now going to have to wait in a queue with everyone else.)

They are not even close to being done refunding all the APs...

 

[ycsteves]

I'm still waiting on a refund from an inactivated Signature AP with Maxpass that I purchased last May, just before they halted ticket sales. The CMs at the AP refund line have quoted "June" as the goal to just refund all the APs.

Still waiting as well

 

[Malcon10t]

I'm still waiting on a refund from an inactivated Signature AP with Maxpass that I purchased last May, just before they halted ticket sales. The CMs at the AP refund line have quoted "June" as the goal to just refund all the APs.

Same here!!!

 

[brightlined]

My guess would be 75-100% capacity BUT with masks and distancing continuing.

75% was my best guess - I think they'll have to take capacity into account when it comes to the social distancing stuff. I'd be surprised if they could jam people in as densely as they used to under full capacity.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

We don’t know if anyone will able to use existing tickets at first, but I am sure Disney will adjust expiration dates as needed if the in state restrictions stay for any length of time.

Hopefully with vaccinations increasing, we’ll be able to move towards “normal” more quickly now.

This is the million dollar question right now! We have tickets that they DID extend the expiration date on (to Jan 2022). It would be terrible to not be able to use them!

Well if they are only checking at the point of purchase maybe the current out of state ticket holders are allowed to use their tickets?

I read the article a little different. It says for making reservations. Now it's possible tickets and reservations will be one transaction, but I'm hoping they'll allow current ticket holders to just make reservations.

That will be very annoying if you can't use existing tickets. They already moved the expiration date from January 2022 to December 2021, so it would be weird having valid tickets and not being able to use them. Especially since I am a CA resident. I mean, I would still buy additional tickets, but I would be annoyed for sure.

This is us! CA resident, with tickets we've had since last January that have already been extended. I really want to be able to use them. But if we can't I'd like advance warning, so that I have a game plan when things go live. But I don't want to ask for a refund on these if they then change their mind about accepting them! Decisions, decisions.

 

[DLgal]

75% was my best guess - I think they'll have to take capacity into account when it comes to the social distancing stuff. I'd be surprised if they could jam people in as densely as they used to under the old capacity.

There is talk about closing the gap, so to speak, after a study of school children showed that reducing distancing to 3 feet from 6 did not result in increased viral transmission among students or staff WHEN masks were used.

I can see the distancing rules relaxing completely while outdoors pretty soon, to be honest. The whole idea that people can spread Covid outdoors when not in actual contact with each other has always been suspect,

 

[ycsteves]

This is the million dollar question right now! We have tickets that they DID extend the expiration date on (to Jan 2022). It would be terrible to not be able to use them!




I read the article a little different. It says for making reservations. Now it's possible tickets and reservations will be one transaction, but I'm hoping they'll allow current ticket holders to just make reservations.


This is us! CA resident, with tickets we've had since last January that have already been extended. I really want to be able to use them. But if we can't I'd like advance warning, so that I have a game plan when things go live. But I don't want to ask for a refund on these if they then change their mind about accepting them! Decisions, decisions.

Yes! I mean, the crazy part is I believe they have this all planned out, but obviously they are not going to break it down to the public. They are incrementally releasing information and stuff as they see fit. But I agree, just give me a heads up! Lol

 

[brightlined]

I can see the distancing rules relaxing completely while outdoors pretty soon, to be honest. The whole idea that people can spread Covid outdoors when not in actual contact with each other has always been suspect,

True. But then there are things like the Peter Pan queue.

They were in process of implementing Virtual Queues when the park closed. If they decide to use that, that would break up the densely-packed lines - but there's still a question of where those people go when they're not in those lines. In normal times, a lot of the park's capacity is in queues - frequently overflowing, and that was with no social distancing.

I also think Green is more of a "we're almost there" tier rather than an "it's over" tier, judging from what the state was suggesting about it - sort of a hybrid before fully, fully reopening everything.

I mean, I dunno - but that would be my guess.

 

[BadPinkTink]

This is how I see things going for the reopening, this my speculation thoughts

• All current multi day or single day tickets get the option to refund or to be used as part payment for tickets in 2022
• California residents will have to buy tickets and make park reservations in one transaction. During the process the billing address and the IP address will be used to limit purchase to those who are physically located in California at the time of purchase.
• The tickets will be one park only, no park hopping.
• Eligibility will be checked at the park entrance, each park guest will need California Government issued ID, not just the lead park guest.
• The policy about California residents will last until 2022, Disneyland will be the last theme park to remove this restriction.
• Disneyland re opening will mirror Walt Disney World reopening regarding characters, entertainment etc. Shows, fireworks etc will not return until 2022.

 

[ycsteves]

This is how I see things going for the reopening, this my speculation thoughts

• All current multi day or single day tickets get the option to refund or to be used as part payment for tickets in 2022
• California residents will have to buy tickets and make park reservations in one transaction. During the process the billing address and the IP address will be used to limit purchase to those who are physically located in California at the time of purchase.
• The tickets will be one park only, no park hopping.
• Eligibility will be checked at the park entrance, each park guest will need California Government issued ID, not just the lead park guest.
• The policy about California residents will last until 2022, Disneyland will be the last theme park to remove this restriction.
• Disneyland re opening will mirror Walt Disney World reopening regarding characters, entertainment etc. Shows, fireworks etc will not return until 2022.

That's a pretty solid prediction

 

[DLgal]

True. But then there are things like the Peter Pan queue.

They were in process of implementing Virtual Queues when the park closed. If they decide to use that, that would break up the densely-packed lines - but there's still a question of where those people go when they're not in those lines. In normal times, a lot of the park's capacity is in queues - frequently overflowing, and that was with no social distancing.

I also think Green is more of a "we're almost there" tier rather than an "it's over" tier, judging from what the state was suggesting about it - sort of a hybrid before fully, fully reopening everything.

I mean, I dunno - but that would be my guess.

I think DISNEY will not go back to 100% capacity for a very long time, even when allowed to. I think they were looking for a way to lower attendance while increasing prices and this is that opportunity.

 

[DLgal]

This is how I see things going for the reopening, this my speculation thoughts

• All current multi day or single day tickets get the option to refund or to be used as part payment for tickets in 2022
• California residents will have to buy tickets and make park reservations in one transaction. During the process the billing address and the IP address will be used to limit purchase to those who are physically located in California at the time of purchase.
• The tickets will be one park only, no park hopping.
• Eligibility will be checked at the park entrance, each park guest will need California Government issued ID, not just the lead park guest.
• The policy about California residents will last until 2022, Disneyland will be the last theme park to remove this restriction.
• Disneyland re opening will mirror Walt Disney World reopening regarding characters, entertainment etc. Shows, fireworks etc will not return until 2022.

This all sounds about right to me. Although they will never require children to show a CA ID, as that just isn't a thing. Adults, sure.

 

[brightlined]

This is how I see things going for the reopening, this my speculation thoughts

• All current multi day or single day tickets get the option to refund or to be used as part payment for tickets in 2022
• California residents will have to buy tickets and make park reservations in one transaction. During the process the billing address and the IP address will be used to limit purchase to those who are physically located in California at the time of purchase.
• The tickets will be one park only, no park hopping.
• Eligibility will be checked at the park entrance, each park guest will need California Government issued ID, not just the lead park guest.
• The policy about California residents will last until 2022, Disneyland will be the last theme park to remove this restriction.
• Disneyland re opening will mirror Walt Disney World reopening regarding characters, entertainment etc. Shows, fireworks etc will not return until 2022.

I agree with pretty much all of this, with a couple of minor caveats:

1) I'd be shocked if they checked residency by IP. I've coded that before, and it's pretty unreliable, especially at the state level. A lot of corporate LANs, for example, use a stock IP that might not be in the state. (IPs do better at country restrictions, though they're still not perfect there.) I also don't think they have time to code that robustly enough, unless it's something they already have. IP checks cause a lot of false negatives, and Disney probably won't want to deal with the headache (especially if they're using any other residency check system).

2) I'm still optimistically saying Fall for the out-of-state restriction. (Though I think some would say I was being pessimistic.)

 

[TikiTikiFan]

I think there's also some outside considerations going on in the CA news surrounding the governor that could impact what reopening looks like in CA. We can't discuss here so that's all I will say on it. But it adds to the unpredictable nature of everything going on.

I sure hope people do their research though- I've seen soooo many comments on Disneyland oriented FB groups from out of state folks like 'Okay sweet, I'm booking my airfare and I'm coming in May!' with no clue what's going on. I hope Disneyland is loud and up front with that messaging that they can't get in. I don't think everyone follows the details of this with a fine tooth comb like we do.

 

[DLgal]

I think there's also some outside considerations going on in the CA news surrounding the governor that could impact what reopening looks like in CA. We can't discuss here so that's all I will say on it. But it adds to the unpredictable nature of everything going on.

I sure hope people do their research though- I've seen soooo many comments on Disneyland oriented FB groups from out of state folks like 'Okay sweet, I'm booking my airfare and I'm coming in May!' with no clue what's going on. I hope they're loud and up front with that messaging that they can't get in. I don't think everyone follows the details of this with a fine tooth comb like we do.

They will make it clear, probably numerous times before and during purchase of any tickets. You will probably have to enter your home address as a first step, and then verify it numerous times and click to agree that you are a CA resident, blah blah blah. They will indicate what proof will be needed at the gates and make you agree to providing it.

It will be quite difficult, I think, for someone to make a park reservation and buy a ticket and then claim they "didn't know." And even if they do, we saw how well that worked for people at WDW with the whole mask mandate. Disney didn't budge, no matter how loud people got. So, people can try and skirt around the requirements all they want, but once they get to the turnstiles, if they can't prove they meet the entry requirements, it'll be too bad, so sad.

 

[DLgal]

I agree with pretty much all of this, with a couple of minor caveats:

1) I'd be shocked if they checked residency by IP. I've coded that before, and it's pretty unreliable, especially at the state level. A lot of corporate LANs, for example, use a stock IP that might not be in the state. (IPs do better at country restrictions, though they're still not perfect there.) I also don't think they have time to code that robustly enough, unless it's something they already have. IP checks cause a lot of false negatives, and Disney probably won't want to deal with the headache (especially if they're using any other residency check system).

2) I'm still optimistically saying Fall for the out-of-state restriction. (Though I think some would say I was being pessimistic.)

Requiring the billing zip code to match that of the address on file in the Disneyland app should be enough.

You can't exactly fake your credit card billing zip code. They can simply require the name on the card to match the name on one of the tickets purchased.

 

[DLgal]

We weirdly just got a check in the mail for that one last AP refund we were waiting for. That is so odd, considering we bought it in the app with the same credit card we had the rest of our APs refunded to. Oh well. We are at least done getting al our refunds now. That $3100 is sitting in our savings account waiting for the new membership options to be unveiled.

 

[ycsteves]

Keep in mind - assuming you have something other than a top-tier one-day, one-park pass, your current tickets are more valuable than what they would sell for this - it would not be a great idea to use them, even if they took them. People would be expecting refunds, and I think that would be an unnecessary transactional hassle for Disney. Easier to just keep kicking the can down the road and/or completely refunding those tickets.

(Somebody in another thread claimed that their tickets had already been kicked back to March.)

Yes! So I have two 2 day parkhoppers with maxpasses. I am more than willing to basically forego the park hopping and maxpass to just do one park per day. But like you said, they have two options: they can choose the former and latter. I just want to know which one they are choosing.

 

[Dreamingstill]

Hi,
New poster here. I have been following these boards for many years mostly for WDW and RunDisney. I finally registered after I have been following this particular thread since last August. I won't be trying to break or bend any rules on the restrictions but I needed to say somewhere where I think other Disney fans will understand. I am a travel nurse and I have been in Southern California since last August and am now on a contract that will end in August. It makes me very sad that I can spend a year here taking care of all levels of sick patients COVID and not but when Disneyland opens I won't be allowed in probably because my legal residency is in another state. So at the very least I can keep dreaming that the California residents only restriction will lift before then. I have seen some really great places but I did really hope to see Disneyland before my time is up here.