mom_of_2_princesses
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- May 19, 2006
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Latest from Hurricane TracK:
UPDATED: 10:55 PM EDT, August 27, 2006
WHAT A WEEK COMING UP- ERNESTO'S FATE STILL IN QUESTION
Once again, I will start off with more good news- Ernesto continues to weaken. This is mostly due to its interaction with the rugged terrain of Haiti and the Greater Antilles as a whole. A tropical cyclone cannot get trapped among mountainous islands without some serious negative impact on the circulation. So, we have seen Ernesto weaken all day long. But where do we go from here?
The latest info from the NHC tells us that Ernesto should not get too strong as it remains entangled with the land mass of Cuba over the next couple of days. However, if the center were to pass farther to the north and ride along the Florida Straits, then we could easily see a stronger hurricane than what is forecast. For right now though, it does not look as bad as this time last night. Of course, no one should take this lightly as we know all too well how hard it can be to forecast these things.
As far as the track goes, the NHC shows Ernesto moving towards Florida from the southeast and then northward in to SW Florida sometime on Wednesday. This portion of the forecast is critical in terms of surge for areas along the SW coast. It will be important for people to listen to what the local officials are saying in terms of evacuation orders as the week begins. Surge is nothing to mess around with- and we know this from our own research in this very area (Wilma- 2005). Once in to Florida, it looks like a great deal of the peninsula could have to deal with a similar situation as Charley except hopefully not nearly as severe. Everyone in the peninsula needs to be ready for what may be coming later this week. Then- it looks like North Carolina will be next in line for a direct hit from Ernesto. How strong it is and where the greatest impact would be is tough to say right now. Certainly people in SE North Carolina and the Outer Banks need to pay close attention to the future track of Ernesto. Be sure to visit the NWS website linked below and click on your region for in-depth info from your LOCAL weather office. There will be many new watches and warnings along with local statements posted over the coming days, use the link below to help with your LOCAL concerns. I will have more here tomorrow morning and should be hitting the road tomorrow for Florida to prepare for observing and reporting on the conditions as Ernesto closes in. Stay tuned!
UPDATED: 10:55 PM EDT, August 27, 2006
WHAT A WEEK COMING UP- ERNESTO'S FATE STILL IN QUESTION
Once again, I will start off with more good news- Ernesto continues to weaken. This is mostly due to its interaction with the rugged terrain of Haiti and the Greater Antilles as a whole. A tropical cyclone cannot get trapped among mountainous islands without some serious negative impact on the circulation. So, we have seen Ernesto weaken all day long. But where do we go from here?
The latest info from the NHC tells us that Ernesto should not get too strong as it remains entangled with the land mass of Cuba over the next couple of days. However, if the center were to pass farther to the north and ride along the Florida Straits, then we could easily see a stronger hurricane than what is forecast. For right now though, it does not look as bad as this time last night. Of course, no one should take this lightly as we know all too well how hard it can be to forecast these things.
As far as the track goes, the NHC shows Ernesto moving towards Florida from the southeast and then northward in to SW Florida sometime on Wednesday. This portion of the forecast is critical in terms of surge for areas along the SW coast. It will be important for people to listen to what the local officials are saying in terms of evacuation orders as the week begins. Surge is nothing to mess around with- and we know this from our own research in this very area (Wilma- 2005). Once in to Florida, it looks like a great deal of the peninsula could have to deal with a similar situation as Charley except hopefully not nearly as severe. Everyone in the peninsula needs to be ready for what may be coming later this week. Then- it looks like North Carolina will be next in line for a direct hit from Ernesto. How strong it is and where the greatest impact would be is tough to say right now. Certainly people in SE North Carolina and the Outer Banks need to pay close attention to the future track of Ernesto. Be sure to visit the NWS website linked below and click on your region for in-depth info from your LOCAL weather office. There will be many new watches and warnings along with local statements posted over the coming days, use the link below to help with your LOCAL concerns. I will have more here tomorrow morning and should be hitting the road tomorrow for Florida to prepare for observing and reporting on the conditions as Ernesto closes in. Stay tuned!