Disney’s Lakeshore Lodge Coming to former Reflections Site in 2027!

[Mikey15]

Time will tell. Studio wise I think will be very close to Poly Tower. I would very much like for you to be right and me be wrong though.

I just don’t see this having a monorail resort level point chart, especially given the size of the place and potential A-frame point sinks.

Riv chart for resort view (Tri Circle D ranch?) and preferred (pool view), plus a higher category for premium/fireworks view?

 

[airjay75]

I'm just thinking about a basic studio during Sept, and I just can't see the points being more than RIV right now. Yes, it's a MK resort, but it lacks the draw of the multi-option transportation to 2 parks like RIV does, PLUS it is much bigger. 2-5 pts extra a night more than CCV would be around (or more than) the GFV levels, and I can't see them doing more than GFV unless there's more amenities offered. They need an alternative lodge for the CCV vacationers who find it hard to book at 11 months...if you price too high, you might as well go to a monorail resort.

I guess if you look at studios 2-4 points more per night over CCV is probably a fair estimate, at least for a resort view studio. And that's one thing CCV doesn't have - different view categories. I'm sure LSL will. Anything facing the water will be preferred view - maybe they get aggressive and try to label some of the views with "good" fireworks views as theme park views. I think the RIV points chart is the floor and the PIT/VGF points chart is the ceiling for LSL - and, of course the A-frame cabins will be very heavy on points.

Sure, I think RIV is a better location with Skyliner access to two parks, but RIV will be sold out when LSL goes on sale. There will be plenty of things they'll be able to sell about LSL, I'm sure.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I just don’t see this having a monorail resort level point chart, especially given the size of the place and potential A-frame point sinks.

Riv chart for resort view (Tri Circle D ranch?) and preferred (pool view), plus a higher category for premium/fireworks view?

Can’t wait to revisit and see who all was closest in their guesstimates. Excited for it to be done.

 

[Mikey15]

maybe they get aggressive and try to label some of the views with "good" fireworks views as theme park views. I think the RIV points chart is the floor and the PIT/VGF points chart is the ceiling for LSL - and, of course the A-frame cabins will be very heavy on points.

Sure, I think RIV is a better location with Skyliner access to two parks, but RIV will be sold out when LSL goes on sale. There will be plenty of things they'll be able to sell about LSL, I'm sure.

One thing I will add is I expect them to be careful about the term chosen for LSL rooms with fireworks viewing potential:

Duo Studios at PIT have a “Premium” view category with “Views of Seven Seas Lagoon,” rather than the “Theme Park View” available in other room sizes.

Riviera “Resort View” rooms with “View of Parking Area” are mostly in sight of Epcot fireworks, yet there’s no “Fireworks View” category.

Disney does have “Fireworks View” as a cash category for hotel side resorts like Wilderness Lodge, but they’ve avoided using it on any DVC rooms at any resort. In theory, fireworks don’t necessarily happen every night at every park, where ones that offer a “theme park view” theoretically offer that same view at all times, whether a theme park is open or closed.

But I don’t see them able to claim “theme park view” for LSL either. There is no line of sight for castle or even Space Mountain. Contemporary and BLT are in the way.

I’d bet a Mickey bar on “Premium View” getting utilized here just like PIT.

 

[GADisneyDad14]

I had done this for another thread - and it's of course impossible to precisely judge the impact of height, trees, angles, etc until we see the finished product - but I think there's a pretty good potential at least some of the northwest facing rooms will end up with decent fireworks views, even with CR/BLT in the mix. Devil will be in the details though, but my money would be on at least some kind of way for them to push different view categories/designations.

 

[juliebee]

So what are your predictions for the point chart for LsL? Including the influences of it being new, restricted, but also quite expansive; I'd wager a point chart about 2-4 pts/night higher than the Copper Creek chart.

If the Cabins at FW are part of LSL trust, then that will help guide the point chart for LSL, in my opinion. Currently the CFW charts are very close to the points for a Resort View Deluxe Studio at Grand Floridian. I think the CFW would be higher points than a resort view studio at LSL. That would put it at or slightly below Riviera points. I'm torn on the points equaling Riviera given that LSL will have the lazy river feature or being slightly less points than Riviera due to LSL's less advantageous transportation options and LSL's higher dues (if with Cabins and there isn't a radical change).

 

[Sandisw]

If the Cabins at FW are part of LSL trust, then that will help guide the point chart for LSL, in my opinion. Currently the CFW charts are very close to the points for a Resort View Deluxe Studio at Grand Floridian. I think the CFW would be higher points than a resort view studio at LSL. That would put it at or slightly below Riviera points. I'm torn on the points equaling Riviera given that LSL will have the lazy river feature or being slightly less points than Riviera due to LSL's less advantageous transportation options and LSL's higher dues (if with Cabins and there isn't a radical change).

They can make them part of the same RTU plan and not tie the charts that close together.

That’s one of the benefits of a trust model…they can also combine it into the trust and give it is own RTU plan.

Point charts can also be adjusted across both if they go in the same RTU plan.

I think it’s too early to tell how it might go…the only thing I feel is more likely than not is that LSL will be sold under a trust model, even if not combined with CFW in anyway.

 

[Girlstar30]

I think they will find creative ways to sneak in higher points. Its a lot of rooms and location isnt great, which is why I think theyre throwing in what will be the new best pool area that people will want to go to and will spend more points on.

The rooms will have the same popular layout as poly and vdh.

Because it will be restricted, resale cant go, so it better be appealing to fill those rooms. I hope they do my king bed studio ive wanted and im sure they'll get away with a premium for that, between a studio and one bedroom pricing. I wouldnt be surprised to see a new room type we've never seen before.

If it had a better location id say between poly and riv points, but because of location and restrictions which will ultimately lower the long term value, id say riv level is appropriate.

It will be nice and new and the more upscale wilderness area resort.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I think they will find creative ways to sneak in higher points. Its a lot of rooms and location isnt great, which is why I think theyre throwing in what will be the new best pool area that people will want to go to and will spend more points on.

The rooms will have the same popular layout as poly and vdh.

Because it will be restricted, resale cant go, so it better be appealing to fill those rooms. I hope they do my king bed studio ive wanted and im sure they'll get away with a premium for that, between a studio and one bedroom pricing. I wouldnt be surprised to see a new room type we've never seen before.

If it had a better location id say between poly and riv points, but because of location and restrictions which will ultimately lower the long term value, id say riv level is appropriate.

It will be nice and new and the more upscale wilderness area resort.

DVC doesn’t take it being restricted as a consideration for point charts. I’m gonna say once the charts are revealed 90% of people won’t think it’s an appropriate point chart.

 

[Brian Noble]

Only 90%?

 

[Wedgeout]

Funny how we get all antsy over a future new point chart and not go nuts over how much each of those points will initially cost!

Charts are going to be higher than anything you have seen so far. Price per point will be higher than any other point you have purchased so far.

If end up liking this resort…stop worrying about the point chart & price. (Sign here..initial there..Welcome Home).

 

[Mikey15]

For recent incentive cycles, $/point is fairly close between the actively selling resorts. CFW is a bit lower but for obvious reasons.

Point charts are an area where they can play at what the market will bear, with the caveat that once the total is set, it’s pretty well set. They nominally make more profit if they set the total points for the resort higher… but if they get it way wrong then they’d have to give more $/pt incentives than they’ve been willing to give out lately.

At a baseline they’d want the maintenance+property tax budget divided by the total number of points to fall within a relevant range. Too low a denominator, and you get higher dues, which also creates pressure for more upfront incentives. Too high a denominator might be less of a problem… look at how well the low dues went over re: Poly tower sales. But I’d posit there’s a limit before you get people choose other home resorts based on a point chart comparison, or balk at buying in altogether.

I think I’ve come around to team “point chart inflation isn’t really a thing.” There’s subtle pricing tiers even between deluxe resorts and villas on the cash side, and monorail resorts are simply flagship priced. Crescent Lake resorts probably should’ve been higher than they are, but it’s been 25 years since that ship sailed. LSL is not going to have Poly/VGF level points charts simply because it’s new. It’s more in the Riviera spectrum.

 

[disneylandtour]

Can’t wait to revisit and see who all was closest in their guesstimates. Excited for it to be done.

For me the big unknown is this: the pool area in one of the two large open courtyard spaces was described in the proposal materials as a "planned aquatic complex." Clearly there's a feature pool and a fairly large lazy river. No doubt some type of slide. But will it be more than this? So no monorail, but this should be the largest pool area in the MK resorts. That, I think, is going to be pushed as a big selling point to likely justify an upper end point chart. How effectively it can be pushed will depend on what all is in this complex exactly.

 

[Girlstar30]

DVC doesn’t take it being restricted as a consideration for point charts. I’m gonna say once the charts are revealed 90% of people won’t think it’s an appropriate point chart.

Thry might not but I do (for purchasing) The poont charts isnt even out yet and I find it to be inappropriate

 

[VGCgroupie]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...wIPO5kkkZRE120IaC8_aem_F_Ap0m9VU9GSt8biYyAI3w

So do we expect 2026 or 2027 for sales?

 

[Hubalorian]

Sure, I think RIV is a better location with Skyliner access to two parks, but RIV will be sold out when LSL goes on sale. There will be plenty of things they'll be able to sell about LSL, I'm sure.

RIV will be sold out or very close to it but POLY will not. Starting with a lower point chart may help attract people over from POLY. I understand the feel of the resorts will be completely different; however Poly has the better location and I suspect much better dues.

 

[airjay75]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...wIPO5kkkZRE120IaC8_aem_F_Ap0m9VU9GSt8biYyAI3w

So do we expect 2026 or 2027 for sales?

I'm going to say, RIV declared sold out in Q4 with LSL sales to begin shortly thereafter. If construction is going well, and ready to open in the first few months of 2027, they'll do a pretty good sale on RIV to push it to sold out early in Q4, followed by pre-opening sales of LSL. If construction is lagging just a bit, no big sale to push RIV to sold out, just continued sales late into Q4 with LSL pre-opening sales starting in December or January.

I think that will coincide nicely with PIT selling out mid to late 2027.

I should book mark this to see how good my crystal ball is .

 

[VGCgroupie]

I'm going to say, RIV declared sold out in Q4 with LSL sales to begin shortly thereafter. If construction is going well, and ready to open in the first few months of 2027, they'll do a pretty good sale on RIV to push it to sold out early in Q4, followed by pre-opening sales of LSL. If construction is lagging just a bit, no big sale to push RIV to sold out, just continued sales late into Q4 with LSL pre-opening sales starting in December or January.

I think that will coincide nicely with PIT selling out mid to late 2027.

I should book mark this to see how good my crystal ball is .

Yes! I think this has a good chance of happening.

 

[juliebee]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...wIPO5kkkZRE120IaC8_aem_F_Ap0m9VU9GSt8biYyAI3w

So do we expect 2026 or 2027 for sales?

I think Madam Leota says October 1, 2026. Starting 4th quarter off with good financials. If they are combining with CFW, I would think they need to declare before 2027 dues are sent out.

 

[Hubalorian]

I'm going to say, RIV declared sold out in Q4 with LSL sales to begin shortly thereafter. If construction is going well, and ready to open in the first few months of 2027, they'll do a pretty good sale on RIV to push it to sold out early in Q4, followed by pre-opening sales of LSL. If construction is lagging just a bit, no big sale to push RIV to sold out, just continued sales late into Q4 with LSL pre-opening sales starting in December or January.

I think that will coincide nicely with PIT selling out mid to late 2027.

I should book mark this to see how good my crystal ball is .

Mid/Late 2027 we will have LSL, Cabins, VDH and Alunai being active. I think sells would be heavily skewed LSL. I wonder if they’d like to have another option?