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[Duckbug.Ducktales]

GDP is lower than the year prior for the first 6 months

Job growth is lower than the year prior (recent jobs data for May/June revised downward by over 200,000)

Consumer confidence is lower than the year prior

Real purchasing growth rate by consumers has reduced in each of the last few quarters.

We shall see what happens, but it’s not all sunshine for companies going forward.

July job numbers are also lower than last year. Just published:
Employers Pulled Back on Hiring, Adding 73,000 Jobs
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/....yG4u.dHqpF7_mY1S0&smid=nytcore-android-share

Excerpt: "The labor market has so far continued to hold up this year. But the slower growth in payrolls signal that cracks in the job market are deepening. Economists have warned that chaotic tariff policies, immigration restrictions and job losses in the federal government could further dampen growth."

 

[fatmanatee]

 

[HokieRaven5]

On an earnings front Cinemark theaters posted their results for Q2 and first 6 months of 2025:

https://ir.cinemark.com/sec-filings...0000950170-25-101099/0000950170-25-101099.pdf

 

[Scalemaster34]

On an earnings front Cinemark theaters posted their results for Q2 and first 6 months of 2025:

https://ir.cinemark.com/sec-filings...0000950170-25-101099/0000950170-25-101099.pdf

I know I spent more this Summer on movies than I have in a long time... Thank goodness for discounted gift cards.

 

[HokieRaven5]

I know I spent more this Summer on movies than I have in a long time... Thank goodness for discounted gift cards.

Yeah I just go on Tuesday evenings when I can fit it in. $7 tickets are hard to argue against. AMC at least expanded discount days to Wednesday too, but I don’t have a major chain theater in my immediate local area anymore.

 

[Brian Noble]

Job growth is lower than the year prior (recent jobs data for May/June revised downward by over 200,000)

This is the big number for me. I remember being pleasantly surprised at the last few reports. Guess those were "optimistic."

 

[RivShore]

Real purchasing growth rate by consumers has reduced in each of the last few quarters.

Not sure if that is the same measurement but BLS reported this for real earnings, still up decently over the last year, especially with inflation running hot:

From June 2024 to June 2025, real average hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted.
The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average
workweek resulted in a 0.7-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Look out for vacation travel to increase in a big way over the next 12 months.

I hope, but no one is expecting that - see all the discounts being offered by all travel related companies. Also saw the Booking.com CEO interviewed this week and he said international travel to the US has dropped substantially.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Not sure if that is the same measurement but BLS reported this for real earnings, still up decently over the last year, especially with inflation running hot:

From June 2024 to June 2025, real average hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted.
The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average
workweek resulted in a 0.7-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

I hope, but no one is expecting that - see all the discounts being offered by all travel related companies. Also saw the Booking.com CEO interviewed this week and he said international travel to the US has dropped substantially.

That’s not the same number. Real purchasing rate (listed as real final sales to private domestic purchasers) is a part of the GDP:

Q4 25 was 2.9% growth
Q1 25 was 1.9% growth
Q2 25 was 1.2% growth

It’s still going up and all, just the rate is slowing

 

[RivShore]

As for the tax cuts, there is no real tax cut for the average person, the cuts just extend what was already in place so for most people there will be no change.

Agreed, not much change for most but the increased local tax deductions could help some middle income homeowners, in high tax states, significantly.

 

[irlandaise]

July job numbers are also lower than last year. Just published:
Employers Pulled Back on Hiring, Adding 73,000 Jobs
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/....yG4u.dHqpF7_mY1S0&smid=nytcore-android-share

Except: "The labor market has so far continued to hold up this year. But the slower growth in payrolls signal that cracks in the job market are deepening. Economists have warned that chaotic tariff policies, immigration restrictions and job losses in the federal government could further dampen growth."

I think you meant to type "Excerpt," not "Except."

Another salient excerpt from that story: "In a sign that the labor market may not have been as robust as it seemed earlier this year, job gains from the previous two months were also revised down by a total of 258,000, an unusually high number."

I know that revision was alluded to in another posting, but I thought it would be helpful to see the actual numbers.

I found this breakdown of that 258,000 in a UPI story: "The totals for May and June were revised significantly, down by 258,000 from what was announced. May was revised from 144,000 jobs added to 19,000 jobs added. June's revision went from 147,000 jobs added to 14,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary."

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I think you meant to type "Excerpt," not "Except."

Another salient excerpt from that story: "In a sign that the labor market may not have been as robust as it seemed earlier this year, job gains from the previous two months were also revised down by a total of 258,000, an unusually high number."

I know that revision was alluded to in another posting, but I thought it would be helpful to see the actual numbers.

I found this breakdown of that 258,000 in a UPI story: "The totals for May and June were revised significantly, down by 258,000 from what was announced. May was revised from 144,000 jobs added to 19,000 jobs added. June's revision went from 147,000 jobs added to 14,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary."

Yes, I did mean excerpt! Those revisions are quite the drop!

 

[PsylockeSmythe]

Agreed, not much change for most but the increased local tax deductions could help some middle income homeowners, in high tax states, significantly.

I don't disagree, the changes to the SALT cap will help people in the high tax states, but I feel that it will mostly help higher income earners that can itemize their deductions.

Psy

 

[fatmanatee]

Meanwhile, in big sports media news, Disney is acquiring NFL Red Zone, sounds like it's in exchange for a stake in ESPN. Major get as things continue to evolve with streaming.

 

[irlandaise]

Well, get ready for the jobs numbers to magically get increased again:

Trump fires labor statistics boss hours after weak jobs report

I know we're off on one of our frequent tangents on this forum, but obviously Americans need to be working if they want to be able to afford Disney+ or a DL/WDW trip or...So it's helpful to our speculation about Disney stock to know how the economy is doing and how many people have jobs.

 

[RivShore]

I found this breakdown of that 258,000 in a UPI story: "The totals for May and June were revised significantly, down by 258,000 from what was announced. May was revised from 144,000 jobs added to 19,000 jobs added. June's revision went from 147,000 jobs added to 14,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary."

It's almost like the Fed should have been thinking about lowering rates the last 3 months...lol

Seriously though, I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop in the labor market for a while, the boom years leading into covid and then companies holding onto all those hires for as long as possible, had to bust at some point. Now you have tariffs and AI to combine with a more normal down cycle...it could be a wild ride.

 

[wabbott]

Should have posted this the other day, since it concerns the earnings of a major studio.

https://deadline.com/2025/07/paramo...ission-impossible-skydance-merger-1236475460/

Paramount Sees Q2 Bump From ‘Mission: Impossible’, Paramount+ In Redstone Swan Song As Skydance Merger Set To Close​

By Jill Goldsmith
July 31, 2025 1:01pm EDT

 

[irlandaise]

It's almost like the Fed should have been thinking about lowering rates the last 3 months...lol

And risk accelerating the inflation rate? You yourself just referred to "inflation running hot."

 

[RivShore]

And risk accelerating the inflation rate? You yourself just referred to "inflation running hot."

It was just a joke that fit together too well not to point out!
But the fed does have the dual mandate so they are required to do something if employment is headed for trouble, no? That being said, the last time they reduced, the bond market ignored it and rates actually increased, so rate reductions may not have the expected impact. Then again, if the Street thinks the job numbers are pointing to trouble, the Street will probably follow the fed rates down. And don't forget slowing employment will help alleviate inflation pressures pretty quickly. i wonder what the fed would have done if they had these revised numbers a day before this week's meeting?

 

[HokieRaven5]

i wonder what the fed would have done if they had these revised numbers a day before this week's meeting?

Probably nothing with indicators that inflation is heating up

 

[RivShore]

Probably nothing with indicators that inflation is heating up

For this last meeting your probably right but there would have also probably have been more dissenters than the 2 they had this week. Lower employment will take a lot of heat off of inflation in the near future and most economists agree with a 90% chance of a September cut.