DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[PolymerSkywalker]

That's an interesting take on things. By most accounts, Indy has underperformed. It just goes to show though that there is room for interpretation.

Not really, there is room to be a pixie duster is more like it.

Indy 5 needs like $900M to break even, so this will be economic flop of epic proportions.

Remember most movies will make around 75% of their total box office in their first week. There are some exceptions of course, but not that many.

 

[Moliphino]

I just want them to be good again, simple as that. Go back to treating the story as the most important thing, and quit all of the other stupid junk that doesn't matter. The story must come first always, that's how great movies are made.

So including LGBT+ characters automatically means the story wasn't important? None of the controversial characters have been at all important to the plot, they were blink and you'll miss it Easter eggs at best. How is their mere presence offensive?

 

[wabbott]

That's an interesting take on things. By most accounts, Indy has underperformed. It just goes to show though that there is room for interpretation.

A lot of movie PR is managing the "expectations" game - and it's an art. If you manage to convince everyone that the movie maybe will bomb, and it does really well, you've won.

If you get maneuvered into the position that the upcoming movie will be a big hit, but doesn't meet expectations, then that's a loss.

That's why several days ago I posted that comment by Iger last February that touted this year's movies. That was a risky move by him. Now he looks weak.

Twenty years ago or so, there was this big movement on Wall Street called the 'whisper number.' Analysts would project earnings, and the company would make forecasts, too.

But then "someone" would "whisper" that the earnings might be 10 or 20 percent more. Nothing in writing, and no attributions. And the stock would get bid up in anticipation of that wish number.

Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield.

 

[Moliphino]

Well then do it again then, instead of making crap like Elemental!

You haven't even seen it! How do you know it's crap?

 

[irlandaise]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disneys-dis-latest-indiana-jones-123600053.html
Disney's (DIS) Latest Indiana Jones Movie Hits the Right Chord
Zacks Equity Research
Wed, July 5, 2023 at 2:36 PM GMT+2
.........
Disclaimer: This article has been written with the assistance of Generative AI. However, the author has reviewed, revised, supplemented, and rewritten parts of this content to ensure its originality and the precision of the incorporated information.

Oh yeah, that really gives me confidence in the article.

I don't know who "Zacks Equity Research" is but the first thing on their website is a window asking for your email address so they can send you their latest stock picks. Uh-huh...

 

[RivShore]

Elemental is a great story. The box-office has no bearing on that. I really liked Strange World too - though that one was always going to be niche, and not because of certian characters, but because of the sci-fi adventure with a "steampunk" feel. It's still good though.

This and Indy may be great stories but if they don't resonate with the movie going public, that probably means it's not the right story to be a hit and, to be harsh, as a shareholder that is all i care about! Cinema/art be damned, give me a hit!! Don't get me wrong, I still want some truly artful pieces of cinema, but if one of my holdings is making them, don't spend a boatload of money making it, please!

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that studio has completly lost the ability to cost manage and the ability to tell a story that resonates with the movie going public. And its affecting all the divisions, even the previouse almost never miss Pixar and Marvel. Hopefully it is just lingering pandemic effects, lingering Bob 2.0 effects, and the always bumpy digital transition (see the music industry). Whatever it is, they need to course correct quickly because the bad press is never ending and its hard to get the stock moving up with those kind of headwinds.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

How is Lake actually presented in the movie and how did that disturb you?

Where did he ever say it disturbed him?

 

[BrianL]

This and Indy may be great stories but if they don't resonate with the movie going public, that probably means it's not the right story to be a hit and, to be harsh, as a shareholder that is all i care about! Cinema/art be damned, give me a hit!! Don't get me wrong, I still want some truly artful pieces of cinema, but if one of my holdings is making them, don't spend a boatload of money making it, please!

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that studio has completly lost the ability to cost manage and the ability to tell a story that resonates with the movie going public. And its affecting all the divisions, even the previouse almost never miss Pixar and Marvel. Hopefully it is just lingering pandemic effects, lingering Bob 2.0 effects, and the always bumpy digital transition (see the music industry). Whatever it is, they need to course correct quickly because the bad press is never ending and its hard to get the stock moving up with those kind of headwinds.

I totally understand that. I don't think it's just a matter of resonating witht he aduiences though - there is just too much out there. Not everything can open to $150M, not everything can cross $1B - there's jsut not enough movie-going dollars to go around. It is absolutely an issue with costs - both ont he production side3 and consumer side. There is more and more to choose from, more ways to watch things, and viewers are being more selective about what they do spend money on.

Also, jus tto clarify my personal opinion, Elemental was a great story. Indy was a good story. I do believe though in both cases that the filmmakers did put their story first and told what they wanted to tell, despite allusions to the contrary.

 

[clarker99]

The unintended consequences of DIS+:

They chased subscriber growth for market valuation to the detriment of the Studios side of the company. DIS+ has pilloried the entire 'Content Sales & Licensing' division. Pushing titles to DIS+ immediately or shortly after release has resulted in weaker Box Office #'s and digital/Blueray sales. Combined with the removal of licensing agreements to make these titles exclusive to DIS+ they have cannibalized themselves by pushing everything into $9.99/mo app where there is currently no ability to extract extra revenue.

I am not convinced that the quality is lacking so much as they made it friction-less for families to skip the FOMO of a new release and watch a $250m budget movie at home for a fraction of the price. And the kids can watch it over and over if they want for the same $9.99/mo.

 

[irlandaise]

Where did he ever say it disturbed him?

He's been ranting about the nonbinary character in "Elemental" for weeks. It obviously bothers him.

 

[mdmost]

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that studio has completly lost the ability to cost manage and the ability to tell a story that resonates with the movie going public. And its affecting all the divisions, even the previouse almost never miss Pixar and Marvel. Hopefully it is just lingering pandemic effects, lingering Bob 2.0 effects, and the always bumpy digital transition (see the music industry). Whatever it is, they need to course correct quickly because the bad press is never ending and its hard to get the stock moving up with those kind of headwinds.

I think it's more the former than the latter. The cost of Indiana Jones shouldn't be 300 million. That's just ridiculous. It makes the uphill climb even greater. I'll agree that the original stories aren't as good as previously done but I feel audience are too tied up in nostalgia to opt for original stories now. We appear to only want sequels. Marvel is going to have an impossible time topping Endgame, something built towards for over 10 years. Now it's left with just a few of those characters and audiences may simply be tired of seeing superhero movies. It's fitting that Guardians 3 is the top movie of the summer but even that wasn't considered a true blockbuster. It was the final gasp of Endgame characters.

I don't think it's just that Disney isn't telling great stories. I think conditioning your audience for over 2 years to rely on Disney+ for content had huge detrimental effects. I still haven't seen Elemental and may just wait till it comes out on Disney+. There's lots of other movies on our plate to see first since they have a finite shelf-life before I can see them in my home.

The only blockbuster of the summer might be Mission Impossible which I think will pull in a lot of the Top Gun crowd.

 

[HokieRaven5]

The only blockbuster of the summer might be Mission Impossible which I think will pull in a lot of the Top Gun crowd.

Paramount needs that boost too. Since releasing Maverick, Paramount Global has an operating income of $349M. Maverick brought In $391M in profit to Paramount. Q1 of this year Paramount lost $1.2B.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Where did he ever say it disturbed him?

Correct, it does not. I simply see it is something that could potentially drive potential customers away.

The basketball great Michael Jordan once was asked to pick a side in a political argument and refused to. His reason for refusing to wade into a sociopolitical topic was simple but really profound. "Republicans buy sneakers too".

Why pick a fight that didn't need to be picked is all I am saying?

Here is how offended by LGTBQ+ people I really am. Saturday night I am having an ice cream social / Pool get together at my place for friends. At least two LGTBQ+ couples have RSVPd thus far to attend. I am so bothered and phobic!

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Paramount needs that boost too. Since releasing Maverick, Paramount Global has an operating income of $349M. Maverick brought In $391M in profit to Paramount. Q1 of this year Paramount lost $1.2B.

Don't tell Brian, he will be down in the dumps again.

 

[RivShore]

I am not convinced that the quality is lacking so much as they made it friction-less for families to skip the FOMO of a new release and watch a $250m budget movie at home for a fraction of the price. And the kids can watch it over and over if they want for the same $9.99/mo.

But its not happening with all movies so maybe it is just this:

I think conditioning your audience for over 2 years to rely on Disney+ for content had huge detrimental effects. I still haven't seen Elemental and may just wait till it comes out on Disney+. There's lots of other movies on our plate to see first since they have a finite shelf-life before I can see them in my home.

And if it is, it was another poor management decision. And all that can't be pinned on the old Bob (or should I say middle Bob), new/old Bob was around for much of it. Hopefully some of the recent house cleaning swept up many of these poor decision makers.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

This and Indy may be great stories but if they don't resonate with the movie going public, that probably means it's not the right story to be a hit and, to be harsh, as a shareholder that is all i care about! Cinema/art be damned, give me a hit!! Don't get me wrong, I still want some truly artful pieces of cinema, but if one of my holdings is making them, don't spend a boatload of money making it, please!

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that studio has completly lost the ability to cost manage and the ability to tell a story that resonates with the movie going public. And its affecting all the divisions, even the previouse almost never miss Pixar and Marvel. Hopefully it is just lingering pandemic effects, lingering Bob 2.0 effects, and the always bumpy digital transition (see the music industry). Whatever it is, they need to course correct quickly because the bad press is never ending and its hard to get the stock moving up with those kind of headwinds.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner folks!

 

[bryaalre]

There's been a lot of conditioning done by all streamers due to the pandemic and it feels like this year they are trying to rectify that. Nearly every movie this year has had an extended release to their respective streaming services compared to previous years. It's a start.

Also, not having a blockbuster release every week or even having two release on the same weekend would help as well. Covid delayed so many things that we are still trying to get through scheduling everything that should have released previously. 2024 is a bit clearer and the writer strike will help clear some scheduling but if everything stays the same next year you will have 6 big movies releasing in March 1 after another with July seeing two billion dollar sequels pitted against each other.

 

[bryaalre]

But its not happening with all movies so maybe it is just this:

It is happening with every studio, not just Disney.

The Flash, Ruby Gillman, Dungeons and Dragons, Shazam, Air, Renfield, Transformers among the big names to lose a lot of money. No one talks about those studios streaming services being the cause for the losses like people talk about for Disney Plus.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

I think it's more the former than the latter. The cost of Indiana Jones shouldn't be 300 million. That's just ridiculous. It makes the uphill climb even greater. I'll agree that the original stories aren't as good as previously done but I feel audience are too tied up in nostalgia to opt for original stories now. We appear to only want sequels. Marvel is going to have an impossible time topping Endgame, something built towards for over 10 years. Now it's left with just a few of those characters and audiences may simply be tired of seeing superhero movies. It's fitting that Guardians 3 is the top movie of the summer but even that wasn't considered a true blockbuster. It was the final gasp of Endgame characters.

I don't think it's just that Disney isn't telling great stories. I think conditioning your audience for over 2 years to rely on Disney+ for content had huge detrimental effects. I still haven't seen Elemental and may just wait till it comes out on Disney+. There's lots of other movies on our plate to see first since they have a finite shelf-life before I can see them in my home.

The only blockbuster of the summer might be Mission Impossible which I think will pull in a lot of the Top Gun crowd.

I agree with a lot of what you say here.

The budget for Indiana Jones 5 is utterly ridiculous, and the board of Disney should have never let this go this far. I have seen as high as $332 Million as a production budget with another $100+ Million in marketing. That leaves you zero room for a profitable movie unless it is a massive hit in the box office. It was simply a really bad business decision as simple at that. Make this same story with about a 1$75 million dollar production budget and this film would have made good money.

Come on now you don't believe in Marvel anymore. You have The Marvels coming in before the end of the year

 

[PsylockeSmythe]

Moderate / Conservate middle class families are losing trust in Disney. It's as simple as that. That demographic is a big part of what made Disney the titan it is today.

This is your opinion, I'm a moderate / conservate, in a middle-class family and we haven't lost any trust in Disney. We just haven't gone to see any movie in a theater since the end of 2019. Right now, we don't have any problems waiting for movies to come out on a streaming service or on one of the pay channels. If is something that we are looking forward to, we will end up buying it on Disc when it is released.

The problem as I see it, is that now everyone wants to turn everything political and instead of just watching something and enjoying the show or movie, people want to turn anything that they don't agree with that is in the show into a political crusade against the show or movie. I might not agree with something, but I don't let it ruin my enjoyment of a show or movie.

It's a great story that everyone wants to see. It always goes back to telling a great story first.

I collect comic books and enjoy Spider-Man as a character, but I have no desire to see this in a theater. So no, not everyone wants to see it. I'll wait till it hits either one of the streaming services that I subscribe to or for it to hit regular TV.

Psy