DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

Just catching up on the CNBC morning show and they were interviewing the Illumina Pharma CEO, who also happens to be on the Disney board. At the end of the interview, they asked the hard question I was hoping they would ask - why is a pharma exec qualified to be on the Disney board but Peltz isn't? His answer was of course, go talk to Disney. He did not even try to defend his own qualifications. The hosts even joked about the hypocrisy of it with him still sitting there, LOL

 

[Jrb1979]

Just catching up on the CNBC morning show and they were interviewing the Illumina Pharma CEO, who also happens to be on the Disney board. At the end of the interview, they asked the hard question I was hoping they would ask - why is a pharma exec qualified to be on the Disney board but Peltz isn't? His answer was of course, go talk to Disney. He did not even try to defend his own qualifications. The hosts even joked about the hypocrisy of it with him still sitting there, LOL

That is a big issue they have. Even bigger is how few people in the company actually understand theme parks. From what I have heard many of the top execs in Disney view the parks as a place for Carnies.

 

[wabbott]

https://fortune.com/2023/01/19/nels...rmance-track-record-analysis-sonnenfeld-tian/

Commentary ·Disney

The last flicker of the candle as Peltz melts​

BYJeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian

January 19, 2023 at 10:04 AM CST

Given the sharp contrast between Disney chief Bob Iger’s widely celebrated performance record–with cumulative total shareholder returns of 554% during his tenure–and the ambiguous performance of activist Nelson Peltz’s Trian fund, CNBC anchor David Faber recently wondered on air, “Why would Peltz persist in his battle [over Disney]?”

It seems Peltz needs the drama and attention. Like the last flicker of a candle before flaming out, it’s a sign of desperation. Based on our careful, original analysis of his investment track record, at least half of the companies that have (or had) Peltz on their board underperform the S&P during the entirety of his tenure. We shared our analysis with Peltz. His response, in a brief email, was, “Jeffrey, check your nos.” I have, and I stand by them.

Not that Peltz makes this objective analysis of his track record easy. Unlike many of his activist peers, Peltz hasn’t put his comprehensive performance data forward. Trian’s performance is thus unavailable to the shareholders and executives of the companies he targets. We are instead supposed to trust his own unsupported claims about superior performance–despite his track record of having to file regulatory corrections with the SEC for misstating performance.

Smoke and bluster add to the confusion. In a CNBC interview last week, Peltz bewilderingly likened the iconic American brand of Walt Disney to the Chinese Communist Party. Would it be just as ludicrous to draw parallels between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Nelson Peltz because they both brag about their performance but do not transparently share the actual numbers? Why conceal the facts if they are so impressive? Are they just modest or afraid of peer envy?

That is not likely since Peltz is shuttering funds under pressure from investors. His major U.K. investment trust “Trian Investors I” apparently has not been actively enlisting major new investors or fundraising the last few years and is currently undergoing liquidation.

Perhaps his investors are turning for the exits because, despite Peltz’s forceful sales rhetoric on TV, the facts are that he appears to be destroying value rather than adding any, since at least half the companies who have had Peltz on their board underperformed the S&P 500 index during the entirety of his board tenure–measured by both share price performance and total shareholder returns (TSR). These include:

• Wendy’s: Peltz has sat on Wendy’s board since the inception of Trian Partners in November 2005, until now, during which Wendy’s shares have underperformed the S&P by 5.1% annually, and Wendy’s TSR has underperformed the S&P by 4.93% annually.
• Mondelez: Peltz was on Mondelez’s board from January 2014 to March 2018, during which Mondelez’s shares underperformed the S&P by 3.59% annually, and Mondelez’s TSR underperformed the S&P by 4.14% annually.
• Sysco: Peltz was on Sysco’s board from August 2015 to August 2021, during which Sysco shares underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.88% annually, and TSR trailed by 2.22% annually.
• Janus Henderson: Peltz sat on Janus Henderson’s board from February 2022 to November 2022, during which Janus Henderson shares underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 23.19% annualized, and TSR trailed by 19.81% annualized.
• Legg Mason: Peltz’s first stint on the Legg Mason board was from October 2009 to December 2014, during which Legg Mason shares underperformed the S&P 500 by 1.75% annually, and TSR trailed by 2.92% annually.
• MSG Sports: Peltz has served on the MSG Sports board from October 2015 to the present, during which MSG Sports shares have underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.93% annually, and TSR has trailed by 6.32% annually.

And it’s not just Peltz. Trian surrogates on boards, namely his son-in-law Ed Garden, the CEO of Trian, seem to have performed no better with their roles on boards, including not only the notorious Chemtura which rode into bankruptcy but also:

• GE: Garden has served on the GE board from October 2017 until now, during which GE shares have underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 19.07% annualized, and TSR has trailed by 20.13% annually.
• BNY Mellon: Garden sat on BNY Mellon’s board from December 2014 to May 2019, during which BNY shares underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.38% annually and TSR trailed by 4.67% annually.
• Family Dollar: Garden sat on Family Dollar’s board from September 2011 to July 2015, during which Family Dollar shares underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.11% annually and TSR trailed by 5.25% annually.

Even in some of his successful investments, the companies succeeded by largely doing the opposite of what he advocated.

At Pepsi, despite Peltz’s 2014 entreaties, CEO Indra Nooyi smartly refused to divest North American and International beverages, heave off Frito Lay, or staple together Pepsi’s winners with Peltz’s losing hand at Mondelez.

At P&G, despite a lengthy 2017 white paper with granularly proposed re-organizations, the two ideas Peltz pushed the most with the board–which were to move some business out of its Cincinnati headquarters “just for disruption” and to decentralize M&A to give it to the business units–were wisely rejected.

So why in the world should Disney’s shareholders, largely small retail investors across America, trust Peltz when his own sophisticated investors are fleeing for the exits and when they would have been better off putting their money in an index fund?

Peltz thinks he can spin his way out of answering these hard questions by constantly staying on the offense, frenetically bouncing from one proxy fight to another amidst a constant swirl of drama and attention, and launching a barrage of ill-supported, trite accusations against the same Disney leadership that he eagerly embraced just four years ago (not to mention false personal attacks against critics like me). But even the avuncular Peltz cannot outrun his own track record forever as Disney shareholders make their choices.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is the Lester Crown Professor in Management Practice and Senior Associate Dean at Yale School of Management. Steven Tian is the director of research at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

 

[OKW Lover]

why in the world should Disney’s shareholders, largely small retail investors across America,

Wondering if this is true. I thought there was a large number of investment funds holding positions in Disney.

 

[wabbott]

Wondering if this is true. I thought there was a large number of investment funds holding positions in Disney.

Seems I recall that back during the Eisner proxy vote in 2004, there were many, many individual stockholders that showed up to the meeting. True that BlackRock and Vanguard are the largest shareholders, tho.

Here is the breakdown. 36% public ownership seems quite a high number.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-dis/walt-disney/ownership?blueprint=1798985&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=infographic&utm_source=yahoo#ownership_summary

 

[wabbott]

DIS up after hours on big NFLX advert revenue, subscribers.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/entertain...sn-t-without-challenges-bofa-says/ar-AA16xlYj

A potential Disney spin-off of ESPN isn't without challenges, BofA says

The return of Bob Iger to the helm of Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) has reignited not only speculation about where cost-cutting can happen, but also some long-running chatter about potential divestitures - particularly of the company's longtime "worldwide leader in sports," ESPN.

That's "not a new debate," BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich noted, saying that it's always discussed as a way to de-leverage and accelerate a strategic pivot at Disney while the company divested itself of an asset in secular decline.

And while she can see the strategic arguments, "we think such an action could also have a disruptive impact this could have on the company’s cash generation as well as other assets (DTC bundle, advertising, etc.) which could potentially outweigh the strategic rationale of a spin." She's maintaining a Buy rating and $115 price target, implying 16% upside.

The company has highly integrated ESPN content across the company, she notes, suggesting it wouldn't be a clean separation. Meanwhile, with the headwinds in cord-cutting along with "multiple compression trending across the industry," it could mean selling at a trough multiple.

And ESPN and Disney's linear TV networks still make up an "overwhelming" part of total company cash flow, needed to help fund the company's transition to direct-to-consumer video.

Digging in, she pointed out that assuming a perhaps generous enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 7.5x for stand-alone ESPN, it implies ESPN/ABC's enterprise value is just over $23B - and if Disney levered up a stand-alone ESPN at 4x, the company could reduce its net debt by $10B.

Given a corresponding drop in EBITDA, net leverage would only decline at 0.3x EBITDA. That scenario implies a per-share value of $6 for ESPN.

She's looking to the earnings call on Feb. 8 as the next catalyst there, as it could provide some updates on the company's strategic direction under Iger.

Feedback

 

[RivShore]

This author is usually accurate on his WDW commentary, he's been writing about Disney at the Fool for a couple decades that i can remember and he lives local to the parks. But he seems to be implying post holiday crowds have lessened but that is not what we have seen at WDW. Since AP's were allowed back in on 1/1, we have been many times and it has been packed every time. Epcot, we were shoulder to shoulder with the crowds a few of the days, true spring break kind of crowds. Disney has done a great job keeping the crowds up post holiday with Run Disney and the new festival. And lots of Art sales at the festival, they have to be pulling in some decent revenue for a January.

Are Disney World and Disneyland Dealing With a Demand Problem?​

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

[Jrb1979]

This author is usually accurate on his WDW commentary, he's been writing about Disney at the Fool for a couple decades that i can remember and he lives local to the parks. But he seems to be implying post holiday crowds have lessened but that is not what we have seen at WDW. Since AP's were allowed back in on 1/1, we have been many times and it has been packed every time. Epcot, we were shoulder to shoulder with the crowds a few of the days, true spring break kind of crowds. Disney has done a great job keeping the crowds up post holiday with Run Disney and the new festival. And lots of Art sales at the festival, they have to be pulling in some decent revenue for a January.

Are Disney World and Disneyland Dealing With a Demand Problem?​

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

It's still busy right now. Judging by the discounts they have offered that include dining it's looking like it's going to be a soft summer. Add in that they have to cancel some Starcruiser bookings due to not enough reservations it's looking that pent up demand is slowing down

 

[wabbott]

This author is usually accurate on his WDW commentary, he's been writing about Disney at the Fool for a couple decades that i can remember and he lives local to the parks. But he seems to be implying post holiday crowds have lessened but that is not what we have seen at WDW. Since AP's were allowed back in on 1/1, we have been many times and it has been packed every time. Epcot, we were shoulder to shoulder with the crowds a few of the days, true spring break kind of crowds. Disney has done a great job keeping the crowds up post holiday with Run Disney and the new festival. And lots of Art sales at the festival, they have to be pulling in some decent revenue for a January.

Are Disney World and Disneyland Dealing With a Demand Problem?​

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

It's good that you know this author. I'm kinda leery of fool.com commentary nowadays. I used to follow them closely when they first published 20 something years ago and they were still small and independent.

 

[RivShore]

It's good that you know this author. I'm kinda leery of fool.com commentary nowadays. I used to follow them closely when they first published 20 something years ago and they were still small and independent.

He is literately the only one i bother reading on that site, only because I remember him from 20 years ago.

Actually I just clicked on his name at the site - he's been there since 1995! And lives in Miami and Celebration so he is deep in the Disney.

 

[RivShore]

It's good that you know this author. I'm kinda leery of fool.com commentary nowadays. I used to follow them closely when they first published 20 something years ago and they were still small and independent.

Did the Fool get bought out by someone? As I mentioned, I haven't paid much attention to them once they just seemed interested in selling you access to the oh so wonderful recommendations.

 

[wabbott]

Did the Fool get bought out by someone? As I mentioned, I haven't paid much attention to them once they just seemed interested in selling you access to the oh so wonderful recommendations.

I don't know if they were bought out, or what. And yes, in the financial advice business, it all comes down to "pay me, and I'll tell you The Way."

 

[wabbott]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-still-looks-frothy-hedge-your-bets-51674083098

Don’t Expect Disney’s Dividend Magic to Come Back Soon
By Lawrence C. Strauss
Jan. 20, 2023 12:30 am EST

Walt Disney’s dividend appears to be a casualty of a balance sheet that has become a bit of an albatross.​

Dozens of companies that suspended their dividends in the pandemic have reinstated payouts. Walt Disney isn’t one of them, and investors shouldn’t expect a comeback soon.

Facing a swirl of corporate pressures, Disney appears to have abandoned its dividend for now. While it was never a high-yielding stock—offering just 1.7% before it suspended its dividend in 2020—its lack of a payout highlights the stress on its balance sheet after an acquisition spree left it heavily indebted. A revival in its free cash flow is expected, but it may be years before Disney has enough to return some of it to shareholders.

 

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/netfli...mixed-financial-results-streaming-1235227761/

Netflix Beats Q4 Subscriber Growth Target, But Mixed Financial Results Reflect Challenging Environment
By Dade Hayes
Business Editor
January 19, 2023 1:11pm PST

Netflix beat forecasts for subscriber gains for the fourth quarter and also edged revenue estimates, but pressure on earnings per share reflected broader challenges in the streaming business.

The company added almost 7.7 million subscribers during the fourth quarter, reaching 230.75 million globally. That was well ahead of Wall Street guidance of almost 4.6 million new customers and within sight of the stellar 8.3 million added in the year-ago quarter. Revenue came in at $7.82 billion, up just 2% from the same period in 2021 and a hair below Wall Street analysts’ consensus expectation for $7.85 billion. Earnings per share of 12 cents were well below the forecast of 45 cents and down from $1.33 a year ago.

Along with the stats, the company announced that co-founder Reed Hastings would be passing the Co-CEO baton to Greg Peters. Hastings will become executive chairman. Peters had headed up product for Netflix before adding the chief operating officer title and then steering the company’s entry into advertising last fall. TV chief Bela Bajaria and film head Scott Stuber also have earned promotions and new titles, the company said.

Netflix had projected adding 4.5 million subscribers in the period, an eventful one even by the standards of the company. The streaming giant released a number of widely viewed series and films during the period, including Harry & Meghan, Wednesday and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. On the last title, Netflix also departed from precedent and forged a one-week exhibition deal for Glass Onion with top theater circuits AMC, Regal and Cinemark, collecting about $13 million from a little more than 600 theaters.

Also last November, the new $7-a-month ad tier launched, giving Netflix a way to manage its maturing business, especially in its home territory of the U.S. At a moment when U.S. consumers are cutting back due to inflation and other economic pressures, Netflix has championed the new subscription level as a way for it to continue growing. They insist it will not cannibalize the existing subscription business.

Shares in Netflx, which went on a wild ride in 2022 as the company posted historic subscriber losses and made an abrupt decision to enter the advertising business, responded well to the earnings report. After selling off in the closing minutes of the trading day, shares rose almost 6% in after-hours trading.

As previously announced, the company did not offer subscriber guidance for the current first quarter of 2023, but offered a detailed forecast of financials, especially in light of plans to ramp up efforts to capture revenue from password sharing.

The company said in its quarterly letter to shareholders that revenue will grow 4% to $8.17 billion (or 8% growth when foreign currency fluctuations are discounted). The revenue growth will be due to “a combination of year over year growth in average paid memberships and [average revenue per member],” the letter said. “This translates into modest positive paid net adds in Q1 ‘23” compared with a decline of about 200,000 subscribers in that grim first quarter of 2022.

The slowdown in subscriber growth from the fourth quarter of last year to the first one of this year is “consistent with normal seasonality” and also likely reflects some “pull-forward” from last fall. The company cited a similar dynamic in 2020, when it booked record growth amid the onset of Covid but then saw it drop noticeably in subsequent quarters.

The effort to get those borrowing passwords to pay up, already being tested in Latin America, will roll out more broadly later this quarter. “From our experience in Latin America, we expect some cancel reaction in each market when we roll out paid sharing,” the company said in the letter. “But as borrower households begin to activate their own standalone accounts and extra member accounts are added, we expect to see improved overall revenue, which is our goal with all plan and pricing changes.”

Netflix did not specify which markets would see the new password restrictions in the months ahead.

As far as competition, Netflix didn’t name-check any rival streamers as it has in some recent quarters. Instead, it returned to a familiar positioning from the years when it was more clearly dominant in the field, maintaining that it competes not only with linear TV but also with YouTube, TikTok and video games.

“It’s not easy to build a large and profitable streaming business,” the shareholder letter said. “But we’re competing from a position of strength, as we lead the industry in terms of engagement, revenue and streaming profit. As a pure-play streaming company, we’re also not anchored to shrinking legacy business models, like traditional entertainment firms, allowing us to lean hard into the big growth opportunity ahead of us.”

https://www.google.com/finance/quot...hUKEwjF546z9tX8AhV-mWoFHQabDc8Q_AUoAXoECAEQAw

NFLX • NASDAQ
Netflix Inc

$315.78

3.23%

-10.55 Today

Pre-market:

$334.51
(5.93%)+18.73
4:24 AM CST

 

[wabbott]

This ain't exactly DIS related, but it is interesting what NFLX viewers are watching.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/...t-successful-documentary-series-b1054385.html

Harry & Meghan announced as Netflix’s second most successful documentary series
The first episodes were released on December 8, in the lead-up to the publication of the duke’s controversial memoir Spare
By Benjamin Cooper
1/20/23

Netflix has announced the Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s explosive recent series is its second-highest ranked documentary ever.

Harry & Meghan began its release on December 8, in the lead-up to the publication of the duke’s controversial memoir Spare, and saw damaging claims levelled at the royal family throughout six episodes.

Netflix reported its fourth quarter earnings on Thursday and disclosed a gain of 7.7 million subscribers during the October-December period, a stretch that included the debut of an ad-supported option for seven dollars (£5.65) per month.

As defined by cumulative view hours in the first 28 days, it also reported on Wednesday as its third-most popular series ever, Glass Onion its fourth-most popular film and Harry & Meghan its second-most successful documentary series.

 

[RivShore]

So Reed is probably going to get bored and need a new challenge in a year or two...hmmmmm

Reed Hastings Shifts To Executive Chairman Role At Netflix; Greg Peters New Co-CEO, Bela Bajaria & Scott Stuber Get New Titles​

https://deadline.com/2023/01/netfli...ia-scott-stuber-handed-new-titles-1235227913/

 

[wabbott]

Significant price gain today.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS

102.73+3.65 (+3.68%)
As of 03:26PM EST. Market open.

 

[Cfabar1]

Yes… I had bought some shares at just under $100
had subsequently bought some shares when it went way down (like $85ish range)…. That’s where about 90% of my Disney holdings are at in terms of purchase price.

Sold the shares that were bought at just under $100 today…. Made a small profit, and still have a good chunk of Disney (that I paid less for) in my portfolio. I figured, I can move that money into something else, or just let it sit on the sidelines for a little while.

I’m not convinced Disney’s Q4 results are going to be that strong - or strong enough that the street is pleased… The fact that Paramount and other streamers all were doing well today as well as Disney makes me think the stock is going to have some days where it goes lower again.

The fact that Wall Street has decided Disney is a “streaming company” is baffling to me… It is so much more than a streamer… And, unlike Netflix, owns so much content that has staying power and value….

Beauty & The Beast or Aladdin aren’t a House of Cards…. To say nothing of the parks….

 

[OKW Lover]

I’m not convinced Disney’s Q4 results are going to be that strong - or strong enough that the street is pleased…

Q4? Which ended 9/30/22. Or Q1?