DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/avatar...ats-top-gun-maverick-best-of-2022-1235211240/

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Tops $1.5B Global, Becomes No. 10 Highest-Grossing Film Of All Time WW
By Nancy Tartaglione
International Box Office Editor/Senior Contributor
January 5, 2023 9:33am PST

THURSDAY UPDATE: James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, as expected (see below), has exceeded $1.5B globally with Wednesday’s figures included. The running total through yesterday is $1,516.5M, meaning that it has overtaken Top Gun: Maverick as the No. 1 worldwide release of 2022. What’s more, it is now the No. 10 biggest movie ever globally.
The 20th Century Studios/Disney sci-fi epic has also in the past day crossed Furious 7 worldwide. Today, it will pass The Avengers to claim the No. 9 spot on the all-time global chart.
Internationally, it is the No. 9 biggest movie ever, and, in Europe, is the highest-grosser of the pandemic era (having passed Spider-Man: No Way Home). It is also the No. 5 release of all time for the region.
Midweeks continue to be strong for the Na’vi with Wednesday adding $26.4M from 52 overseas markets (-33% on last Wednesday).
Not included in totals above, Korea is at an estimated $79.6M cume through Thursday and China at an estimated $173M, with Maoyan upping its final projections to RMB 1.5B ($218M) in the market.
The Top 5 offshore markets to date through Wednesday are China ($168.6M), France ($96.1M), Korea ($78.2M), Germany ($76.5M) and the UK ($60.9M).

 

[RivShore]

Anyone else here worried about the Parks attendance and profit going forward? Them putting out these discounts for summer which used to be a busy time of year says bookings are soft. Doesn't look good.

I believe they offered some significant room discounts for summer 2022 so are this year's discounts that unusual?

As I said in the other thread, with all the recession talk, it would not be surprising for parks to take a hit as the consumer pulls back.

 

[RivShore]

I might be the last good fiscal quarter in a while.

Could be!! But ideally for us shareholders, as the parks cool off from their highs of the last year or two, D+ will finaly stop the cash bleed. It is a low cost form of family entertainment that should be one of the last things that a family cuts in a recession.

 

[Mikey15]

One tangible change so far this year, as a customer, I received an email about the summer dining credit or spring room discount, and another email about half-off deposits (not a discount, granted) on Disney cruises.

In a sense for a shareholder, this is a step up from the zero marketing communications in recent past, but it's also the first crack in the recent run of 'price increases forever, with no sales/discounts.' A sign of long-term customer relationship building again, but also a sign of the economic storm brewing.

 

[wabbott]

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/avatar-box-office-james-cameron-2-billion-1235479666/

Jan 5, 2023 10:45am PST
Will ‘Avatar 2’ Hit $2 Billion? Breaking Down the Blockbuster Sequel’s Path to Box Office Glory
By Rebecca Rubin

After just 22 days in theaters, “Avatar: The Way of Water” has raked in $1.5 billion globally, overtaking “Top Gun: Maverick” to stand as the 10th-highest grossing movie in history.
It’s a remarkable achievement, especially because opening weekend returns were less stratospheric than Hollywood had anticipated. But James Cameron’s “Avatar” sequel was the de facto choice at the movies over the busy holiday season, propelling the sci-fi blockbuster to juggernaut status.
The film’s stellar turnout — driven by repeat customers, Imax prices and top-notch audience scores — is necessary, and not only in providing a lifeline to beleaguered theater owners. Since Disney, which holds the rights to “Avatar” after acquiring 20th Century Fox in 2019, spent at least $350 million to make “Avatar” and more than $100 million more to market the grand return to Pandora, Cameron suggested the film needed to gross $2 billion globally to become financially successful. Plus, he’s already planning to make three more sequels.

There’s a popular adage among distribution executives that you can’t judge a film based on its opening weekend alone, and that proved to be true in the case of “The Way of Water” and its $134 million start. It was similarly accurate for the first film, which debuted in 2009 to $77 million domestically and eventually became the highest-grossing release in history with $2.9 billion globally. Given the exceptionally long theatrical run of the original, as well as the altered post-pandemic landscape, industry watchers feel the sequel’s ultimate box office potential can’t be accurately assessed until long after the holiday season.

Already, the stretch between Christmas and New Year’s proved lucrative, reaffirming the public’s affinity for the Na’vi. Now that “The Way of Water has demonstrated its staying power, insiders believe the aquatic action adventure is going to generate a minimum of $1.825 billion. Moreover, it has a real shot at crossing $2 billion worldwide, a nearly impossible benchmark in COVID times. Even “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which became a sensation at the end of 2021, fell just shy with a still-staggering $1.9 billion.
At the domestic box office, “The Way of Water” has grossed $464 million to date. For analysts, “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” has been the main reference point in terms of anticipating the trajectory of “Avatar 2” because the 2016 tentpole also opened as Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fell on Sundays. “Rogue One” opened to $155 million and ended its theatrical run with $533 million, a healthy result that carried its global tally past $1 billion. (“The Way of Water” has already crushed the “Star Wars” installment at the international box office with $1 billion in just overseas ticket sales. “Rogue One” wasn’t as popular internationally, where the film generated $525 million.) On its third Tuesday in theaters, domestic ticket sales for the “Avatar” follow-up were encouragingly up 65% over “Rogue One” at the same point in its run. It’s a promising sign that North American revenues for “The Way of Water” have the potential to reach at least $600 million. The first “Avatar” collected $785 million domestically and an eye-popping $2.1 billion overseas, including re-releases.
At the international box office, standout markets have been France (where the film is imminently crossing $100 million), Germany (where it just passed $75 million) and India (where it’s hit a mighty $51 million). Even in China, where initial ticket sales fell dramatically short of expectations, attendance has managed to rebound in the following weeks. After its lackluster start in the country, there were expectations that revenues would top out at $120 million. But it has already surpassed $168 million in China, leading analysts to revise its ultimate forecast to $200 million or more. So far, “F9: The Fast Saga” with $216 million is the highest grossing pandemic-era Hollywood movie in China.
There are notable obstacles to reaching record-book status. For one, the follow-up isn’t playing in Russia, where the original grossed $116 million. And the sequel has generated a dismal $20 million in Japan, a dramatic decrease from the first film’s $176 million haul.
In order to surpass $2 billion, a feat that’s only been accomplished by five films ever, “Avatar: The Way of Water” can’t rely on outperforming expectations in the two biggest markets, China or North America. It needs to continue to play to audiences, of every age and demographic, across the globe. It’s been able to succeed so far because it’s a true four-quadrant blockbuster, appealing to every moviegoer — males, females, young and old. It’s rare today to find a tentpole that manages to be family-friendly without involving superheroes or comic book lore. By comparison, “Top Gun: Maverick,” another enduring blockbuster, initially played to older audiences until it became inescapably zeitgeist-y and later enticed millennial and Gen Z ticket buyers.
“Avatar 2” has a clear runway without major big-screen competition for five more weeks. As a result, there’s little chance that exhibitors will be taking “The Way of Water” off its screens until Disney and Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” hits theaters on Feb. 17. Blumhouse’s campy thriller “M3GAN” and Channing Tatum’s “Magic Mike Last Dance” will open in between, but neither of those films are expected to cannibalize the attention for “Avatar.”
If “The Way of Water” manages to join the elusive $2 billion club, Cameron will be responsible for three of the six-highest grossing movies in history, including “Avatar” and “Titanic” ($2.2 billion). It’s been an oft-repeated mantra in the lead-up to the long-delayed sequel, but it’s also impossible to deny: Never bet against James Cameron.

 

[OKW Lover]

Anyone else here worried about the Parks attendance and profit going forward? Them putting out these discounts for summer which used to be a busy time of year says bookings are soft. Doesn't look good.

It seems to me that Disney has offered some kind of summer deal in past years - before covid. I don't think this is any indication of a problem.

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS​

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)​

91.92-0.06 (-0.07%)
At close: 04:03PM EST
91.68 -0.24 (-0.26%)
After hours: 04:57PM EST

DIS held up well today, even as the Dow was down about 1%. Perhaps it is the continuing success of A2, since costs have been covered. Every additional dollar is clear profit.

 

[clarker99]

Anyone else here worried about the Parks attendance and profit going forward? Them putting out these discounts for summer which used to be a busy time of year says bookings are soft. Doesn't look good.

Like others have said, Disney ran (up to) 20-25% off room discounts last summer and into Sept. Money all works out similarly over 4-5 Night stay. With the Dining Card you force the customer to put the ‘savings’ directly back to Disney.

Will be interesting if this Dining Card idea replaces the Dining plan. Interesting in that Disney did state that the Dining plan was coming back in 2023.

 

[wabbott]

Like others have said, Disney ran (up to) 20-25% off room discounts last summer and into Sept. Money all works out similarly over 4-5 Night stay. With the Dining Card you force the customer to put the ‘savings’ directly back to Disney.

Will be interesting if this Dining Card idea replaces the Dining plan. Interesting in that Disney did state that the Dining plan was coming back in 2023.

Anyone do a dollar analysis of this dining card? We never could make the dining plan work for us, as we would have to spend all our time eating to make it pay.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

This success probably makes Avatar a tent-pole IP for Disney. Cameron has 3 more (I think) Avatar movies in the pipe-line. Every other Christmas until 2028. Ideas beyond Marvel and Star Wars making box office money has to be a good thing.

I have time for negativity around the stock price but has a single movie ever moved a stock? I am just not sure $DIS goes up or down on box office numbers.

Take a look at PARA and the (lack of) impact Top Gun: Maverick had. Great film, terrible stock performance.

 

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/avatar...ats-top-gun-maverick-best-of-2022-1235211240/

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Moves Up To No. 9 On All-Time Global Chart With $1.547B
By Nancy Tartaglione
International Box Office Editor/Senior Contributor
January 6, 2023 9:49am PST

FRIDAY UPDATE: Rising again on the all-time global box office chart, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water has jumped into the No. 9 slot with Thursday’s grosses included. As presaged yesterday (see below), it has overtaken The Avengers’ $1.521B, now having surfed to nearly $1.547B worldwide — and getting there in 23 days of release.

The Na’vi sequel from 20th Century Studios and Disney continues to stand as the No. 2 international box office release of the pandemic era with $1.075B through Thursday. It is closing in on the No. 1 title of the past three years, Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.107B), and will also shortly pass the pre-pandemic gross of The Lion King ($1.118B) overseas.

The Thursday offshore take was $23.4M in 52 markets, a 51% drop from last Thursday.

On Friday, and not included in the totals above, China added an estimated $3.5M for an estimated running $177M cume. The Maoyan prediction for a final total eased a bit, to $216M. Likewise not included above, Korea’s Friday was $1.29M for a running $81.3M cume.

The Top 10 markets through Thursday are: China ($171.5M), France ($97M), Germany ($79.5M), Korea ($79.2M), UK ($62.1M), India ($52.4M), Australia ($40.8M), Mexico ($40.6M), Italy ($35.7M) and Spain ($33.3M).

 

[wabbott]

https://www.osceola.org/news/reedy-creek-improvement-district-notice.stml

Published on: Jan 6, 2023
Reedy Creek Improvement District

Notice is hereby given of intent to seek legislation before the Florida Legislature, during a regular, extended, or special session, of an act relating to the Reedy Creek Improvement District, Orange and Osceola Counties; amending, reenacting, and repealing Chapter 67-764, Laws of Florida, and decree in chancery no. 66-1061 (May 13, 1966); removing and revising powers of the District; increasing state oversight, accountability, and transparency of the District; revising the selection process, membership qualifications, and compensation for the governing body of the District; ensuring debts and bond obligations held by the District remain with the District and are not transferred to other governments by retaining the District’s authority related to indebtedness and taxation; revising the District’s authority over local permitting and regulation; revising the District’s regulatory framework and structure; instituting reporting requirements, including a review of the District’s remaining powers; describing the District boundaries and name; revising exceptions to general law and certain special acts; removing duplicative provisions; making conforming changes; creating an exception to general law; providing an effective date.

 

[RivShore]

https://www.osceola.org/news/reedy-creek-improvement-district-notice.stml

Published on: Jan 6, 2023
Reedy Creek Improvement District

Notice is hereby given of intent to seek legislation before the Florida Legislature, during a regular, extended, or special session, of an act relating to the Reedy Creek Improvement District, Orange and Osceola Counties; amending, reenacting, and repealing Chapter 67-764, Laws of Florida, and decree in chancery no. 66-1061 (May 13, 1966); removing and revising powers of the District; increasing state oversight, accountability, and transparency of the District; revising the selection process, membership qualifications, and compensation for the governing body of the District; ensuring debts and bond obligations held by the District remain with the District and are not transferred to other governments by retaining the District’s authority related to indebtedness and taxation; revising the District’s authority over local permitting and regulation; revising the District’s regulatory framework and structure; instituting reporting requirements, including a review of the District’s remaining powers; describing the District boundaries and name; revising exceptions to general law and certain special acts; removing duplicative provisions; making conforming changes; creating an exception to general law; providing an effective date.

Still no details.

We should probably not discuss this further, as it looks like the Admins are considering it political and are shutting down other threads.

 

[wabbott]

Still no details.

We should probably not discuss this further, as it looks like the Admins are considering it political and are shutting down other threads.

Yes. But it is germane to the company's bottom line, so I just posted the notice only, and none of the opinion pieces that were published yesterday afternoon.

 

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-m3gan-avatar-the-way-of-water-1235212918/

‘M3GAN’ Making Moola With $27M+; ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ To Cross Half Billion At Domestic Box Office – Saturday AM Update
By Anthony D'Alessandro
Editorial Director/Box Office Editor
January 7, 2023 7:34am PST

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Universal/Blumhouse’s M3GAN won Friday with $11.7M, taking its weekend projections to $27.5M. All of this was built on the back of 2D admission prices, since Avatar: The Way of Water has all the Imax and PLF screens. Marvelous. Hopefully, the horror fans don’t have this front-loaded.

CinemaScore at a solid B (horror fan are always hard) is very good, and higher than the 3 1/2 stars on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. Universal did a spectacular job here making a creepy doll film for the TikTok generation. If someone is dancing in your movie, and you can market it on TikTok, consider it a win. The protag’s droopy dance caught on like wild fire out of the first trailer — and this was without the studio doing a #MeganDanceChallenage. There was none of that. It was all organic with 1.3 billion views on TikTok across the hashtags #M3GAN, #M3GANMovie, and #M3GANDance.

Universal took that whole dance conceit up a notch by having a troupe of M3GAN dancers at the premiere before Christmas boogeying to Taylor Swift’s “It’s Nice to Have a Friend”. That gang came out for the Rams game at halftime last weekend and cut the rug again. It’s great gimmick marketing that sells a horror film and makes it a must-see. Paramount did a stunt for Smile, but with scary smiling people stunt at sports games, which TV cameras would capture and zoom in on.

Some may say in its concept, M3GAN is like Chucky or Annabelle, another serial killing doll. Oh, no, she’s totally different and Universal made sure to sell that tonally, distinguishing her posh and deadpan attitude to a Gen Z and millennial crowd. Namesake Megan Thee Stallion posted the first trailer on social media and gave it a huge shoutout, while M3GAN and Chucky began a frenemy feud on social.

The trailers generated multiple trending topics on Twitter, YouTube, and GIPHY, with the worldwide count for both exceeding 250M views.

The 18-34 crowd came out at 62%. Though led by guys over 25 at 28%, women weren’t far behind at 27% over 25, and 26% under 25. Men under 25 attended at 19%. Women at 53% gave the film an overall 72% grade in PostTrak exits. Also indicative of that demo, 20% came to the movie with 2 to 4 friends. Diversity demos were 38% Caucasian, 27% Hispanic or Latino, 21% Black, and 7% Asian, a very good swath.

Among horror openings in January, the top one belongs to Blumhouse’s Glass, with $40.3M off a B CinemaScore. MEGAN is the first film to open to more than $20M during the first weekend of January since 2018, when Insidious: The Last Key started with $29.6M. It’s also the first PG-13 horror movie to open to more than $20M since A Quiet Place Part II during Memorial Day 2021 ($47.5M). Scream, which debuted to $30M last January, was Rated R.

Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water is still looking at No,. 1 with a $38M-$43M weekend, which at either end gets it over the half-billion mark in the US and Canada. Best fourth weekend (for a regular film in release, not an expansion like American Sniper) belongs to the first Avatar in 2010 with $50.3M, followed by Top Gun: Maverick,which did $44.6M. It’s possible that Avatar 2 surpasses the fourth frames of Force Awakens ($42.3M) and Black Panther ($40.8M). At this weekend level, it’s clear the James Cameron movie has a significant amount of gas left in the tank.

Both movies top off a weekend that’s bound to add up to around $101M for all titles, +61% from Jan. 7-9 a year ago, which made $62.7M per Box Office Mojo. Still, there’s money missing in the marketplace, as the first weekend of 2020, before we ever thought Covid would become part of our vocabulary, did $142.3M, led by the third weekend of Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker.

1.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 4,340 theaters Fri $11.4M (-54%) 3-day $38M-$43M (-36% to 44%), Total $514.7M (on the high end)/Wk 4
2.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,509 theaters, Fri $11.7M, 3-day $27.5M/Wk 1
3.) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Uni/Ill) 3,919 (-202) theaters, Fri $3.3M (-49%), 3-day $12.4M (-26%), Total $87M/Wk 3
4.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 637 (+633) theaters, Fri $1.5M 3-day $3.68M/
total $3.76M/Wk 2
5.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 2,255 (-55) theaters, Fri $968K (-50%) 3-day $3M (-41%), Total $445M/Wk 9
6.) I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony) 3,184 (-441) theaters Fri $700K (-51%) 3-day $2.38M (-39%) Total $19.6M/Wk 3
7.) Babylon (Par) 2,381 (-970) theaters Fri $430K (-54%), 3-day $1.4M (-46%), Total $13.5M/Wk 3
8.) The Whale (A24) 850 (+270) theaters, Fri $423K (-15%) 3-day $1.38M (-1%) Total $8.4M/Wk 5
9.) The Menu (Sea) 800 (-60) theaters, Fri $211K (-45%), 3-day $724k (-34%)/Total $37.7M/Wk 8
10.) Violent Night (Uni) 1,981 (-582) theaters, Fri $210K (-75%) 3-day $670K (-68%) Total $49.3M/Wk 6

 

[Cfabar1]

Avatar 2 is doing really well, but I do wonder just how much money it will make Disney.

Hopefully if they do an Avatar 3, it is a less expensive film. Michael Eisner would have never made a movie this expensive….

 

[HokieRaven5]

Avatar 2 is doing really well, but I do wonder just how much money it will make Disney.

Hopefully if they do an Avatar 3, it is a less expensive film. Michael Eisner would have never made a movie this expensive….

3, 4, and 5 are coming. Cameron said they hit the break even point and he will do his sequels. They will likely cost less just because they won’t have as much overhead associated with the technology development that this one had.

 

[Bovril82]

Avatar 2 is doing really well, but I do wonder just how much money it will make Disney.

Hopefully if they do an Avatar 3, it is a less expensive film. Michael Eisner would have never made a movie this expensive….

They've already shot a lot (maybe all) of 3.

They had a child actor in 2 that they wanted to use again, who would have aged too much if they waited. They just need to complete post production and CGI.

I would say at least 3 is a definite.

 

[wabbott]

https://variety.com/2023/film/box-o...nth-highest-grossing-film-history-1235481710/

Jan 8, 2023 9:18am PT
‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Takes Down ‘Jurassic World’ as Seventh-Highest Grossing Film in History With $1.7 Billion By Rebecca Rubin

Isla Nublar has nothing on Pandora. James Cameron’s blockbuster sequel “Avatar: The Way of Water” has grossed $1.708 billion globally, overtaking “Jurassic World” ($1.67 billion) as the seventh-highest grossing movie in box office history.
After only four weeks of release, “The Way of Water” has generated $516 million in North America and $1.91 billion overseas. At the international box office, it’s now the fifth-highest movie, behind only “Avatar,” “Avengers: Endgame,” “Titanic” and “Avengers: Infinity War.”
Based on its worldwide ticket sales, “Avatar: The Way of Water” stands as the highest-grossing movie released in 2022, as well as the second-biggest movie of the pandemic era following 2021’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home” ($1.91 billion). But the Na’vi have their sights set on taking down Peter Parker, whose latest adventure ranks as the sixth highest-grossing global release of all-time.
At this rate, “Avatar 2” has a real shot at crossing $2 billion worldwide, a nearly impossible benchmark in COVID times. Even “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” a runaway box office sensation, fell just shy of that particular milestone because the superhero sequel didn’t play in China, which is a major market for Marvel movies. It’s a lofty goal with or without the pandemic, to be sure. The only five movies in history to surpass the $2 billion dollar mark are “Avatar” ($2.9 billion), “Avengers: Endgame” ($2.79 billion), “Titanic” ($2.2 billion), “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” ($2.069 billion) and “Avengers: Infinity War” ($2.04 billion). For anyone keeping score, Cameron has directed three of those six movies.
The long-delayed sequel to 2009’s “Avatar” has remained a huge theatrical draw since opening in mid-December with $134 million in North America and $435 million globally. That’s good news because Disney, which holds the rights to “Avatar” after acquiring 20th Century Fox in 2019, spent at least $350 million to make “Avatar” and more than $100 million more to market the grand return to Pandora. With those stratospheric figures, “The Way of Water” requires much more than the average tentpole to breakeven. Plus, Cameron is already planning to make three more sequels.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.ft.com/content/6adeae16-aa02-41d3-ba69-23da918205bd

Avatar ticket sales breathe life into Disney’s blockbuster machine
James Cameron’s sci-fi epic nears break-even point for studio looking to update its rota of franchises
The weekend haul for ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ makes the movie the seventh-highest grossing of all time
Christopher Grimes in Los Angeles
1/8/2023

Avatar: The Way of Water has grossed more than $1.7bn at the global box office, giving a boost to Disney as some Wall Street analysts are warning that its famed blockbuster engine has started to run out of steam. The movie’s haul at the weekend makes The Way of Water the seventh-highest grossing film of all time, ahead of Jurassic World.

The original Avatar, released in 2009, remains the top moneymaker in cinema history with $2.9bn in total grosses.

Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore, said the film appeared to have further to run and could gross $2bn.

“That Avatar still tops the box office in its fourth week is really impressive,” he said. “This thing is not slowing down at all.” The weekend performance means the expensive sci-fi film is closing in on profitability for Disney, analysts say, meaning director James Cameron is likely to get the green light for his plans to release three more instalments of the series.

The Avatar franchise came to Disney through the 2019 acquisition of 20th Century Fox from Rupert Murdoch for $71bn — a deal whose value to Disney has been questioned recently by some analysts.

It was the capstone transaction for Disney’s chief executive Bob Iger, who returned to the company in late November following the ouster of his successor, Bob Chapek. Now, as Iger plots a new strategy for Disney, some on Wall Street say a top priority needs to be to reinvigorate its film studios, particularly Pixar, Disney Animation and Lucasfilm.

Rich Greenfield, an analyst at LightShed Partners, said the drive to create new content for the Disney Plus streaming service had put a severe strain on its studios.

Consistent hitmakers such as Lucasfilms’ Star Wars and Marvel — home of box office heroes such as Spider Man and The Avengers — “feel increasingly tired from overuse”, he said. “Disney has never been about volume — it was always about quality at the highest level — yet the streaming business requires massive amounts of content to drive [subscriptions] and minimise churn,” he said last week.

“By ramping content so fast . . . it’s diluted the power of the content with consumers. It feels less special.” Critics point to the disappointing performance last year of Pixar’s Lightyear — the latest instalment in the successful Toy Story franchise — and Disney Animation’s Strange World as examples of big misses last year.

Disney’s animation business was in the doldrums when Iger first became chief executive in 2005. He moved quickly to acquire Pixar from Apple, a deal that was credited with reinvigorating the company’s animated work.

Later, Iger oversaw the successful acquisitions of Marvel and Lucasfilm. But there are scant obvious acquisition targets that could transform the business today. Greenfield adds that “much of the content that has underwhelmed in the past couple of years was greenlit at the tail-end of Iger’s first run as CEO”.

Despite such concerns, Disney still had four of the top 10 biggest films of 2022, including The Way of Water and three Marvel movies: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Thor: Love and Thunder.

Disney films made up three of the top 10 films in the US last week, according to Comscore. Disney is also touting its film line-up for this year, the company’s 100th anniversary. Among them is Marvel’s Ant Man and the Wasp, a remake of The Little Mermaid, a fifth instalment of the Indiana Jones franchise and Wish.

A tentative long-term schedule also has Avatar sequels pencilled in for 2024, 2026 and 2028. The third Avatar film has already been shot and work is under way on the fourth picture.

With a reported budget of $350mn, the bar facing The Way of Water to achieve profitability is high due to marketing and other costs — not to mention the hefty share of the box office take that goes to cinemas.

“The most important thing for [Disney] is that the movie does very well outside the US,” said Chad Beynon, an analyst at Macquarie. “In the US it will make a little over $500mn, but outside it might make $1.5bn.”

Cameron told interviewer Chris Wallace last week that “it looks like with the momentum the film has now we will easily pass our break-even in the next few days.” He added: “It looks like I can’t wiggle out of this — I’m going to have to do these other sequels.”