DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[clarker99]

Avatar numbers were a miss, and with a movie like this WS is worried about drop-off from week to week. We are going Wednesday, we had to find a good time that fit into our schedule. It is a long movie, and we are also traveling a bit to see it in IMAX, something we would not do for other films ordinarily.

Additionally, we took today to be a day to buy more DIS stock…. The prices seem way too low. So much fear is being priced in in my view.

Today was a good day to buy.

 

[Jrb1979]

Pandora
Cars Land
Galaxy’s Edge x 2
Toy Story Land
Avengers Campus
Shanghai

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All green lit under Iger. I am sure there was more. The man wasnt afraid to spend money.

Tron, Mickey and Minnies, Ratatouille, Guardians and the Epcot overhaul also approved on his watch (I think).

Still not enough capacity added for the amount of attendance they get. Sure Iger did more then Chapek but not enough. I've said it a few times if you want a good reality check when it comes to capacity compare Cedar Point to all 4 WDW parks combined. One has 70 rides and attractions in 1 park and the other has 53 across 4 parks.

 

[clarker99]

RE: Avatar 2

Largest opening for a James Cameron movie by a large margin. Pretty wild stat Considering his resume.

RE: DIS stock price

I think DIS price has little to nothing to do with Avatar.

 

[clarker99]

Still not enough capacity added for the amount of attendance they get. Sure Iger did more then Chapek but not enough. I've said it a few times if you want a good reality check when it comes to capacity compare Cedar Point to all 4 WDW parks combined. One has 70 rides and attractions in 1 park and the other has 53 across 4 parks.

Studios and Epcot are noticeably better than they were (IMO). It is wild how adding just 2 rides to Epcot changed the dynamic. Yes, more needs to be done to absorb bodies everywhere. You could even compare DLR to WDW. DL uses its space much better.

 

[wabbott]

Today was a good day to buy.

Looks to be still on sale this morning.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS
85.70 -0.08 (-0.09%)
Pre-Market: 4:53AM EST

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Avatar 2 will have decent legs. I read somewhere that 20% of advanced sales were for dates after opening weekend. By comparison, Marvel movies (which tend to do well at the box office) generally has 5% of advanced sales for after opening weekend.

After the opening weekend, it is clear that Avatar 2 will not bomb. It will make coin. But...I'm seriously interested how much of a speed bump Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will turn out for Avatar.

Early word on Puss is extremely good. I have a critic friend from college who lives on the West Coast and he saw Puss and he texted me that Puss was better than Coco which is the last time he gave a 4 star review to an animated movie. Plus, at only 1 hour 40 minutes, you can run nearly 2 showings of Puss over 1 showing of Avatar 2.

 

[BrianL]

Avatar 2 will have decent legs. I read somewhere that 20% of advanced sales were for dates after opening weekend. By comparison, Marvel movies (which tend to do well at the box office) generally has 5% of advanced sales for after opening weekend.

After the opening weekend, it is clear that Avatar 2 will not bomb. It will make coin. But...I'm seriously interested how much of a speed bump Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will turn out for Avatar.

Early word on Puss is extremely good. I have a critic friend from college who lives on the West Coast and he saw Puss and he texted me that Puss was better than Coco which is the last time he gave a 4 star review to an animated movie. Plus, at only 1 hour 40 minutes, you can run nearly 2 showings of Puss over 1 showing of Avatar 2.

I think Avatar will do well too. The expectations may have been astronomical, but in reality I don't think it will be considered a flop by any means.

I want to like Puss In Boots, but man, I just HATE that animation style where it uses the choppy frame rate on purpose. I just don't get that! After seeing Avatar in buttery smooth 48 FPS, I would want to tear my eyes out!

 

[Scalemaster34]

Avatar 2 will have decent legs. I read somewhere that 20% of advanced sales were for dates after opening weekend. By comparison, Marvel movies (which tend to do well at the box office) generally has 5% of advanced sales for after opening weekend.

After the opening weekend, it is clear that Avatar 2 will not bomb. It will make coin. But...I'm seriously interested how much of a speed bump Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will turn out for Avatar.

Early word on Puss is extremely good. I have a critic friend from college who lives on the West Coast and he saw Puss and he texted me that Puss was better than Coco which is the last time he gave a 4 star review to an animated movie. Plus, at only 1 hour 40 minutes, you can run nearly 2 showings of Puss over 1 showing of Avatar 2.

Problem is it cost a LOT of coin to make Avatar 2 and to promote it....

Another issue is beyond Theater sales being softer these days, is physical media (DVD, Blueray) sales are also much softer than they were back in the days of the original Avatar.... Streaming is where the "action" has moved too. But Streamers like Disney+ are finding it hard to balance their books, which is the real problem for Disney's stock.

 

[bryaalre]

I follow a few box office forums and consensus is still up in the air for Avatar. It has been a small disappointment in the US, Mexico, UK and a few others and has been doing fantastic in Germany and South Korea. The biggest reason for it's opening weekend under performance was China and Japan. It has completely flopped in Japan, opening in third over the weekend. China has seen a massive spike in Covid and Avatar will continue to under perform there.

As for legs, it has been tracking similarly to Rogue 1. If it continues to have Rouge 1 like legs, 475M-500M would seem a likely finish domestically and around $1.5B worldwide. I'm hopeful that it will play better as it has less competition than Rogue 1 had but we will see. Yesterday's US number was very meh.

Avatar has been reported to cost upwards of $600M including marketing, which could put its breakeven at around $1.1B. I would imagine that number 3 will have less costs but is still going to be very expensive.

While Puss and Boots has been received very well, the tracking of pre sales has been mediocre. The last few days have tracked better but the opening weekend does not feel strong. Hoping this movie legs out but it would be a bad sign for animated movies if this does not perform well, seeing as it has glowing reviews, marketed strongly and released during the holidays.

 

[clarker99]

Avatar 2 will have decent legs. I read somewhere that 20% of advanced sales were for dates after opening weekend. By comparison, Marvel movies (which tend to do well at the box office) generally has 5% of advanced sales for after opening weekend.

After the opening weekend, it is clear that Avatar 2 will not bomb. It will make coin. But...I'm seriously interested how much of a speed bump Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will turn out for Avatar.

Early word on Puss is extremely good. I have a critic friend from college who lives on the West Coast and he saw Puss and he texted me that Puss was better than Coco which is the last time he gave a 4 star review to an animated movie. Plus, at only 1 hour 40 minutes, you can run nearly 2 showings of Puss over 1 showing of Avatar 2.

Been reading similar about Puss n boots. Shrek was a long time ago now (20yrs) so depends on parents nostalgia and willingness to drop money over the holidays. It likely wont have legs beyond Christmas break, right?

 

[wabbott]

HALLELUJAH!!!!!!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...f-espn-abc-in-2023-wells-fargo-152129649.html

Disney will start process to spin-off ESPN, ABC in 2023: Wells Fargo
Alexandra Canal
·Senior Reporter
Tue, December 20, 2022 at 9:21 AM CST·4 min read

Wells Fargo is predicting big things for Disney's (DIS) sports network ESPN in 2023.

In a new note published on Tuesday, Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall outlined the firm's top predictions for the media business in 2023, and made a big call about the future of ESPN under Bob Iger's leadership at Disney.

"DIS will begin the spin-off process for ESPN & ABC including launching ESPN in streaming a la carte," Cahall wrote. "Cost rationalization and balance sheet options are critical to reaching this
outcome. The result is a better-off remaining DIS."

Whether or not Disney should consider spinning off the popular sports network has been a perpetual talking point at among investors for years, and picked up steam this year after Third Point's Dan Loeb sent a letter to the company urging an ESPN spin-off.

Loeb argued ESPN would have greater flexibility to pursue business initiatives, such as sports betting, if it was not part of Disney.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price (USD)
86.08
+0.30(+0.35%)
As of 11:24AM EST.Market open.

Newly-returned Disney chief Bob Iger will likely have to decide ESPN's fate before the end of his two-year term in 2026, though former CEO Bob Chapek previously shot down the notion of selling the sports network.

"If you happen to have a vision for the future that the rest of the world’s not necessarily in tune with yet, then you keep ESPN. You keep ESPN, and you have a full complement of general entertainment, family news, sports that no other entertainment company can touch," Chapek told Deadline, adding the company received numerous inquiries from businesses looking to purchase.

Analysts have remained split on what Disney should ultimately do with ESPN.

Jason Bazinet, managing director at Citi, previously told Yahoo Finance Live: "We're very much against spinning off ESPN... that's the dumbest thing ever."

Bazinet went on to explain ESPN has the potential to be a much bigger global business, especially if Disney chooses to leverage the internet for distribution. He also noted the network generates the bulk of Disney's cash flow, which will ultimately fund its pivot to direct-to-consumer and help offset accelerating streaming losses.

"What Disney is embarking upon with a direct-to-consumer business is very much like a cable company or a telecom company," Bazinet said, stressing that DTC bridges the gap between the consumer and sports rights. "They should not spin it off."

Still, investors are eager to see some type of change at the company amid steep streaming losses and a sinking stock price. On Monday, Disney shares closed at their lowest level since March 2020 after disappointing box office figures for "Avatar: The Way of Water."

In its most recent fiscal year, Disney's operating income for its Linear Networks segment — which includes ESPN — totaled $8.52 billion. Losses for its direct-to-consumer unit, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, totaled $4 billion for the year.

'Everything's on the table'​

Tuesday's predictions come as industry watchers expect more media merger activity in 2023.

"It's a pretty good inflection point," Jon Christian, EVP of digital media supply chain at Qvest, the largest media & entertainment-focused consulting company, told Yahoo Finance. "The game has changed. It used to be just subscribers at all cost...but now [investors] need these services to be profitable."

Bart Spiegel, partner of global entertainment & media deals at PwC, added: "We're entering a chapter two of the streaming wars."

"Only time will tell, but I think everything's on the table to try to improve profitability and make the platforms more creative to their overall business," Spiegel continued.

"Our 2023 predictions indicate Media and Cable sectors reacting to generally harder times, both cyclical and structural. Tough times mean tough decisions," Wells Fargo's Cahall noted.

Even for the Worldwide Leader in Sports.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...t-disney-espn-abc-spinoff-analyst-1235285283/

Disney Analyst: Spinning Off ESPN, ABC Is “Best Path Forward”
"We see it as a reasonably probable late-'23 event," writes Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall.
December 20, 2022 8:15am

 

[RivShore]

HALLELUJAH!!!!!!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...f-espn-abc-in-2023-wells-fargo-152129649.html

Disney will start process to spin-off ESPN, ABC in 2023: Wells Fargo
Alexandra Canal
·Senior Reporter
Tue, December 20, 2022 at 9:21 AM CST·4 min read

Wells Fargo is predicting big things for Disney's (DIS) sports network ESPN in 2023.

In a new note published on Tuesday, Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall outlined the firm's top predictions for the media business in 2023, and made a big call about the future of ESPN under Bob Iger's leadership at Disney.

"DIS will begin the spin-off process for ESPN & ABC including launching ESPN in streaming a la carte," Cahall wrote. "Cost rationalization and balance sheet options are critical to reaching this
outcome. The result is a better-off remaining DIS."

Whether or not Disney should consider spinning off the popular sports network has been a perpetual talking point at among investors for years, and picked up steam this year after Third Point's Dan Loeb sent a letter to the company urging an ESPN spin-off.

Loeb argued ESPN would have greater flexibility to pursue business initiatives, such as sports betting, if it was not part of Disney.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price (USD)
86.08
+0.30(+0.35%)
As of 11:24AM EST.Market open.

Newly-returned Disney chief Bob Iger will likely have to decide ESPN's fate before the end of his two-year term in 2026, though former CEO Bob Chapek previously shot down the notion of selling the sports network.

"If you happen to have a vision for the future that the rest of the world’s not necessarily in tune with yet, then you keep ESPN. You keep ESPN, and you have a full complement of general entertainment, family news, sports that no other entertainment company can touch," Chapek told Deadline, adding the company received numerous inquiries from businesses looking to purchase.

Analysts have remained split on what Disney should ultimately do with ESPN.

Jason Bazinet, managing director at Citi, previously told Yahoo Finance Live: "We're very much against spinning off ESPN... that's the dumbest thing ever."

Bazinet went on to explain ESPN has the potential to be a much bigger global business, especially if Disney chooses to leverage the internet for distribution. He also noted the network generates the bulk of Disney's cash flow, which will ultimately fund its pivot to direct-to-consumer and help offset accelerating streaming losses.

"What Disney is embarking upon with a direct-to-consumer business is very much like a cable company or a telecom company," Bazinet said, stressing that DTC bridges the gap between the consumer and sports rights. "They should not spin it off."

Still, investors are eager to see some type of change at the company amid steep streaming losses and a sinking stock price. On Monday, Disney shares closed at their lowest level since March 2020 after disappointing box office figures for "Avatar: The Way of Water."

In its most recent fiscal year, Disney's operating income for its Linear Networks segment — which includes ESPN — totaled $8.52 billion. Losses for its direct-to-consumer unit, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, totaled $4 billion for the year.

'Everything's on the table'​

Tuesday's predictions come as industry watchers expect more media merger activity in 2023.

"It's a pretty good inflection point," Jon Christian, EVP of digital media supply chain at Qvest, the largest media & entertainment-focused consulting company, told Yahoo Finance. "The game has changed. It used to be just subscribers at all cost...but now [investors] need these services to be profitable."

Bart Spiegel, partner of global entertainment & media deals at PwC, added: "We're entering a chapter two of the streaming wars."

"Only time will tell, but I think everything's on the table to try to improve profitability and make the platforms more creative to their overall business," Spiegel continued.

"Our 2023 predictions indicate Media and Cable sectors reacting to generally harder times, both cyclical and structural. Tough times mean tough decisions," Wells Fargo's Cahall noted.

Even for the Worldwide Leader in Sports.

Wow, who knew @wabbott had Bob I's ear...LOL

This would be a big change for him, he's always been a buyer of big IP, not a seller. And this is a bad time to be a seller of anything -high interest rates and low valuations. Maybe in 2024?

 

[jade1]

and we are also traveling a bit to see it in IMAX, something we would not do for other films ordinarily.

That might help give it legs. Most remember how necessary size (IMAX) and 3D was in the original, and not having enough of enough of those options could spread results longer.

I felt a lot of FoP type moments during the show, so that was fun.

 

[RivShore]

Still not enough capacity added for the amount of attendance they get. Sure Iger did more then Chapek but not enough. I've said it a few times if you want a good reality check when it comes to capacity compare Cedar Point to all 4 WDW parks combined. One has 70 rides and attractions in 1 park and the other has 53 across 4 parks.

I'm not sure that is a valid comparison - comparing a single park who's main mission is "rides" to a full fledged "resort". In your WDW attraction count, do you include all the shops in the parks? They eat up crowds all day long. Heck, Main St. is considered an attraction in itself by many. How about other entertainment like parades and fireworks and street entertainment that eat up crowds. What about the dozens of hotels on property, some of whose lobbies and pools I would consider attactions in themselves. No other park in the world has these kinds of attractions in this quantity. It may not be what you care about because rides are most important to you but 50M people a year certainly seem to like the immersive resort aspect.

ETA: I forget to note some other major attractions/amenities that the one off parks don't have like Springs, Boardwalk, many golf courses, etc.

 

[Jrb1979]

I'm not sure that is a valid comparison - comparing a single park who's main mission is "rides" to a full fledged "resort". In your WDW attraction count, do you include all the shops in the parks? They eat up crowds all day long. Heck, Main St. is considered an attraction in itself by many. How about other entertainment like parades and fireworks and street entertainment that eat up crowds. What about the dozens of hotels on property, some of whose lobbies and pools I would consider attactions in themselves. No other park in the world has these kinds of attractions in this quantity. It may not be what you care about because rides are most important to you but 50M people a year certainly seem to like the immersive resort aspect.

ETA: I forget to note some other major attractions/amenities that the one off parks don't have like Springs, Boardwalk, many golf courses, etc.

I agree somewhat. MK has lots of capacity. It's the other 3 parks that need more capacity.

HALLELUJAH!!!!!!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...f-espn-abc-in-2023-wells-fargo-152129649.html

Disney will start process to spin-off ESPN, ABC in 2023: Wells Fargo
Alexandra Canal
·Senior Reporter
Tue, December 20, 2022 at 9:21 AM CST·4 min read

Wells Fargo is predicting big things for Disney's (DIS) sports network ESPN in 2023.

In a new note published on Tuesday, Wells Fargo analyst Steve Cahall outlined the firm's top predictions for the media business in 2023, and made a big call about the future of ESPN under Bob Iger's leadership at Disney.

"DIS will begin the spin-off process for ESPN & ABC including launching ESPN in streaming a la carte," Cahall wrote. "Cost rationalization and balance sheet options are critical to reaching this
outcome. The result is a better-off remaining DIS."

Whether or not Disney should consider spinning off the popular sports network has been a perpetual talking point at among investors for years, and picked up steam this year after Third Point's Dan Loeb sent a letter to the company urging an ESPN spin-off.

Loeb argued ESPN would have greater flexibility to pursue business initiatives, such as sports betting, if it was not part of Disney.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price (USD)
86.08
+0.30(+0.35%)
As of 11:24AM EST.Market open.

Newly-returned Disney chief Bob Iger will likely have to decide ESPN's fate before the end of his two-year term in 2026, though former CEO Bob Chapek previously shot down the notion of selling the sports network.

"If you happen to have a vision for the future that the rest of the world’s not necessarily in tune with yet, then you keep ESPN. You keep ESPN, and you have a full complement of general entertainment, family news, sports that no other entertainment company can touch," Chapek told Deadline, adding the company received numerous inquiries from businesses looking to purchase.

Analysts have remained split on what Disney should ultimately do with ESPN.

Jason Bazinet, managing director at Citi, previously told Yahoo Finance Live: "We're very much against spinning off ESPN... that's the dumbest thing ever."

Bazinet went on to explain ESPN has the potential to be a much bigger global business, especially if Disney chooses to leverage the internet for distribution. He also noted the network generates the bulk of Disney's cash flow, which will ultimately fund its pivot to direct-to-consumer and help offset accelerating streaming losses.

"What Disney is embarking upon with a direct-to-consumer business is very much like a cable company or a telecom company," Bazinet said, stressing that DTC bridges the gap between the consumer and sports rights. "They should not spin it off."

Still, investors are eager to see some type of change at the company amid steep streaming losses and a sinking stock price. On Monday, Disney shares closed at their lowest level since March 2020 after disappointing box office figures for "Avatar: The Way of Water."

In its most recent fiscal year, Disney's operating income for its Linear Networks segment — which includes ESPN — totaled $8.52 billion. Losses for its direct-to-consumer unit, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, totaled $4 billion for the year.

'Everything's on the table'​

Tuesday's predictions come as industry watchers expect more media merger activity in 2023.

"It's a pretty good inflection point," Jon Christian, EVP of digital media supply chain at Qvest, the largest media & entertainment-focused consulting company, told Yahoo Finance. "The game has changed. It used to be just subscribers at all cost...but now [investors] need these services to be profitable."

Bart Spiegel, partner of global entertainment & media deals at PwC, added: "We're entering a chapter two of the streaming wars."

"Only time will tell, but I think everything's on the table to try to improve profitability and make the platforms more creative to their overall business," Spiegel continued.

"Our 2023 predictions indicate Media and Cable sectors reacting to generally harder times, both cyclical and structural. Tough times mean tough decisions," Wells Fargo's Cahall noted.

Even for the Worldwide Leader in Sports.

I think it would be a big mistake to spin-off ESPN. Live sports is still a major draw and if they can add more to ESPN+ it would be a major player in the streaming game.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

I think Avatar will do well too. The expectations may have been astronomical, but in reality I don't think it will be considered a flop by any means.

I want to like Puss In Boots, but man, I just HATE that animation style where it uses the choppy frame rate on purpose. I just don't get that! After seeing Avatar in buttery smooth 48 FPS, I would want to tear my eyes out!

They blended the frame rates and my friend told me that they blend the 2D and 3D animation styles very, very well. My friend told me that the director did an interview explaining how he drew inspiration from anime styled work to a major animation project like Puss.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

They blended the frame rates and my friend told me that they blend the 2D and 3D animation styles very, very well. My friend told me that the director did an interview explaining how he drew inspiration from anime styled work to a major animation project like Puss.

I guess the proof will be in the pudding?

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Been reading similar about Puss n boots. Shrek was a long time ago now (20yrs) so depends on parents nostalgia and willingness to drop money over the holidays. It likely wont have legs beyond Christmas break, right?

Word of mouth can result in weird situations whereby movies do far better than projected. Top Gun: Maverick is a prime example of a positive word of mouth campaign for a movie that took decades to get a sequel made and resulted in being the biggest box office smash of the year.

 

[clarker99]

Word of mouth can result in weird situations whereby movies do far better than projected. Top Gun: Maverick is a prime example of a positive word of mouth campaign for a movie that took decades to get a sequel made and resulted in being the biggest box office smash of the year.

James Cameron is the word of mouth king.

Minions run over the summer surprised me. You are right as we just have no idea what will run and what will flame out!?! (RIP Lightyear)

Top Gun: Maverick is terrific.