DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[peder]

I'm not a movie-maker, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

But for the last 20 years of my working life, I was a salesman, and was reasonably successful. You learn a couple of things real quick: where the money is and which customers are ready to spend it. To have any success at this, you must listen to your customers.

I would suggest to anyone about to make a movie, that you look at movies that were successful in the past and learn why folks went to see them.

Without customers, you have no business. None. You only exist to satisfy a need or a want that someone is willing to pay for.

This might sometimes be hard for Disney, because Disney is a company (like Amazon and others) that embraces being misunderstood for long periods of time, taking a bet on a creative direction. In a sense, Disney tells its customers what they want, not the other way around, and they've been very successful at that over the years. But when they drift from what customers want, it can require a significant cultural change to get back to being successful.

 

[wabbott]

In a sense, Disney tells its customers what they want, not the other way around, and they've been very successful at that over the years.

That's an accurate statement. I once saw a phrase that described the Madison Avenue advertising industry as "want makers." Think back to the TV show Mad Men.

 

[HokieRaven5]

TWDC (and let’s face it practically every other corporation) have bigger issues on their mind than the current state of the box office anyway.

Lots of uncertainty going forward for all in this economic climate.

 

[BrianL]

This might sometimes be hard for Disney, because Disney is a company (like Amazon and others) that embraces being misunderstood for long periods of time, taking a bet on a creative direction. In a sense, Disney tells its customers what they want, not the other way around, and they've been very successful at that over the years. But when they drift from what customers want, it can require a significant cultural change to get back to being successful.

This is a balancing act. The best companies, especially in a creative sector, should give fans something that they didn't know they wanted. So, you are giving them what they want, but you have to tap into that unexpected factor too. It's notorously hard to do, but that's the magic formula for greatness.

 

[peder]

The best companies, especially in a creative sector, should give fans something that they didn't know they wanted

That's a much more elegant way of saying what I was trying to say. Well put.

I think Disney has the people who have "it" but it's also got people who clearly don't have "it" + a very long creative process that involves a ton of rework / design by committee. They probably are too risk averse because their budgets are so high, but their budgets are so high because they have too many cooks in the kitchen. They need to figure out a way to greenlight more projects and let their creatives thrive or fail on their own, without so much bureaucracy. And once they find their winners, then they can give them more budget.

 

[BrianL]

That's a much more elegant way of saying what I was trying to say. Well put.

I think Disney has the people who have "it" but it's also got people who clearly don't have "it" + a very long creative process that involves a ton of rework / design by committee. They probably are too risk averse because their budgets are so high, but their budgets are so high because they have too many cooks in the kitchen. They need to figure out a way to greenlight more projects and let their creatives thrive or fail on their own, without so much bureaucracy. And once they find their winners, then they can give them more budget.

While that may be true, sometimes that design by comittee does work, so it's so hard to say that they should do this or should do that. The fact is, in a creative endeavor, it is hard to know. That said, a strong creative vision is usually the best starting point.

 

[Brian Noble]

“Nobody knows anything...... Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.”
--William Goldman

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paramount-skydance-merger-deadline-extended-215352179.html

Paramount-Skydance Merger Deadline Extended 90 Days as FCC Approval Remains in Limbo

The Wrap · by Lucas Manfredi
April 7, 2025 @ 2:53 PM PDT

 

[Elijah Abrams]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paramount-skydance-merger-deadline-extended-215352179.html

Paramount-Skydance Merger Deadline Extended 90 Days as FCC Approval Remains in Limbo

The Wrap · by Lucas Manfredi
April 7, 2025 @ 2:53 PM PDT

Also…

https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/paramount-trump-mediator-60-minutes-lawsuit-1236362402/

Paramount, Trump Agree on Mediator for President’s $20 Billion ‘60 Minutes’ Lawsuit (Report)​

Variety • by Todd Spangler
Apr 7, 2025 @ 2:23pm PT

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Thank you for confirming that story need not matter for a good time to be had.

I didn't say that story doesn't matter nor did I confirm that story need not matter for a good time to be had.

I just made an observation from social media that people were having a good time at the theater. I celebrate that. Rocky Horror Picture Show is a terrible musical and I (with friends) have gone to multiple showings in the theater because, for us, we have a good time. I (with friends) have also gone to the theater to watch unbelievably well written stories such as The Usual Suspects, The Unforgiven, The Shawshank Redemption (etc.) and had a good time too.

As my brother likes to tell me, you can't spell entertainment without entertain.

 

[HokieRaven5]

This is a balancing act. The best companies, especially in a creative sector, should give fans something that they didn't know they wanted. So, you are giving them what they want, but you have to tap into that unexpected factor too. It's notorously hard to do, but that's the magic formula for greatness.

It’s just at this point in post Covid the general audiences are showing out for things they know and love from the past and not necessarily anything actually new.

Minecraft has an established audience from the mass amounts of gamers and YouTubers.

Mario decades of fans with Nintendo

Moana most streamed movie on D+ and an okay sequel gets $800M

Deadpool & Wolverine already has a built up fanbase so it was almost too big to drop

Top Gun Maverick - almost complete rehash of the original just a Star Wars trench run mission

Inside Out 2 - draws back on the thoughts and feelings of the original and is something known enough

People aren’t really paying to go see something creative yet, mostly paying for things they’re familiar with

 

[BrianL]

It’s just at this point in post Covid the general audiences are showing out for things they know and love from the past and not necessarily anything actually new.

Minecraft has an established audience from the mass amounts of gamers and YouTubers.

Mario decades of fans with Nintendo

Moana most streamed movie on D+ and an okay sequel gets $800M

Deadpool & Wolverine already has a built up fanbase so it was almost too big to drop

Top Gun Maverick - almost complete rehash of the original just a Star Wars trench run mission

Inside Out 2 - draws back on the thoughts and feelings of the original and is something known enough

People aren’t really paying to go see something creative yet, mostly paying for things they’re familiar with

Well, I wouldn't say that those movies aren't "creative" - they're not original, but they are creative. I mean, nobody really thought they wanted a sequel to Top Gun, and yet they did. So it's not that it can't be sequels and such - it's just that tapping into that intangible quality of a hit movie is never easy and you never know for sure.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Well, I wouldn't say that those movies aren't "creative" - they're not original, but they are creative. I mean, nobody really thought they wanted a sequel to Top Gun, and yet they did. So it's not that it can't be sequels and such - it's just that tapping into that intangible quality of a hit movie is never easy and you never know for sure.

For sure, and TWDC has been at the top at least domestically of all the studios in terms of box office each of the last 5 years. So even with all this critique on them, they’ve grossed just fine by comparison to their competitors.

TWDC probably will manage to top domestic box office on Avatar 3 just because you just don’t bet against James Cameron making $1-2B.

To add TWDC has been at the top globally 8 of the last 9 years.

 

[wabbott]

All this discussion of good/bad movies and whether they will make money and if the movie company is a good/bad investment snatched me back to what I consider to be one of the best ads ever done back during the Dot Com era. Oh, my!

E*TRADE - Blow'd Up (1999, USA)

 

[HokieRaven5]

Theaters are trying to crack down more on the crowds associated with A Minecraft Movie, since the online trend is to trash a theater at “Chicken Jockey!!!”

https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/pop-culture-news/chicken-jockey-minecraft-movie-rcna200274

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...-netflix-leads-disney-warner-bros-1236184451/

Streaming Profit Report: Netflix Leads, Disney Rises, Warner Grows. Is Consolidation Next?
Also: NBCUniversal and Paramount Global narrowed streaming losses with an eye on profitability ahead.

April 11, 2025 - 6:35am PDT
by Georg Szalai

 

[wabbott]

https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/box-office-minecraft-already-king-of-kings-1236367413/

Apr 12, 2025 8:22am PDT
by J. Kim Murphy

Box Office: ‘Minecraft’ Is Already the Highest-Grossing Domestic Release of 2025; Angel Studios’ ‘King of Kings’ Outdoing ‘The Amateur,’ ‘Drop’

 

[wabbott]

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/...-arent-showing-up-cfcf8d75?mod=hp_featst_pos5

Hollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren’t Showing Up.
New movies based on fresh ideas are fizzling at the box office

By Ben Fritz
April 13, 2025 - 2:17 pm EDT

LOS ANGELES—When director Christopher Landon introduced his new thriller, “Drop,” before its premiere at the Chinese Theater on Hollywood’s Walk of Fame, he had a warning for the packed auditorium.

“It’s really hard out there for an original movie,” he said, urging everyone who liked the Universal Pictures release to “scream it from the rooftops” and on social media.

“Drop” opened this weekend to an estimated $7.5 million domestically, one of two new movies based on fresh ideas that fizzled at the box office. The other was Disney’s “The Amateur,” a spy thriller adapted from a little-known 1981 book, which opened to an estimated $15 million.

After years of gripes from average moviegoers and Hollywood insiders alike about the seemingly nonstop barrage of sequels, spin-offs, and adaptations of comic books and toys, the film industry placed more bets on original ideas.

The results have been ugly.

Nearly every movie released by a major studio in the past year based on an original script or a little-known book has been a box-office disappointment. Before this weekend’s flops were Warner Bros. Discovery’s “Mickey 17” and “The Alto Knights,” Paramount’s “Novocaine,” Apple’s “Fly Me to the Moon,” Amazon’s “Red One,” and the independently financed “Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1” and “Megalopolis.”

Jason Blum, who produced “Drop” and built his company Blumhouse largely on original horror franchises, said audiences’ preference for known properties has made it harder to release original movies in theaters, “even though that’s where some of the most exciting and risky storytelling still lives.”

‘Zero awareness’

Getting people into theaters more frequently is a priority for a movie industry still recovering from the pandemic. Box-office revenue in the first three months of this year in the U.S. and Canada was the lowest it has been, excluding the pandemic, since 1996.

At the CinemaCon industry convention in early April, theater owners said they welcome more original films, but only if they are backed by robust advertising campaigns. Building buzz for a new film in a media environment fractured between YouTube, TikTok, streaming and sports is tough, particularly when it is an unknown title.

“We’re opening films that have almost zero awareness,” said Bill Barstow, president of Main Street Theatres, a small Nebraska-based chain.

Many consumers are content to wait until an original motion picture is available to rent online a few weeks after its theatrical release or to stream on a service like Netflix in a few months.

Long in the tooth

The only films succeeding in the current environment are those with built-in audiences, like “A Minecraft Movie,” which was released in early April and has grossed more than $280 million domestically. And these days, even franchises can be far from a sure thing. Long-running series such as Marvel and DC superheroes and live-action remakes of Disney animated classics are showing their age and proving unreliable at the box office.

Studios say they have little choice but to make more original movies they hope will buck the odds.

“Telling original stories and taking risks is the only path toward creating new global franchises,” Bill Damaschke, Warner Bros.’ head of animation, said at CinemaCon.

Some of the increase in original film releases is attributable to Amazon and Apple, which are building film businesses with few well-established franchises. One of the biggest bets on an original film from any company this year is Apple’s “F1,” a June release starring Brad Pitt as a race-car driver.

Amazon hyped 11 coming movies to exhibitors at CinemaCon, of which six were originals. Among traditional studios, Warner Bros. is taking the most risks on originals, with big budget films from directors Paul Thomas Anderson and Maggie Gyllenhaal.

Hollywood’s next original release comes Friday with Warner’s “Sinners,” a horror movie starring Michael B. Jordan. Next month even Marvel, home to Hollywood’s biggest franchises, is taking a gamble with “Thunderbolts,” about a super team brand new to all but the most devoted comic-book readers.

Write to Ben Fritz at ben.fritz@wsj.com

 

[afan]

“We’re opening films that have almost zero awareness,” said Bill Barstow, president of Main Street Theatres, a small Nebraska-based chain

This is the big thing. The only original movie in the article I've heard of is the F1 Brad Pitt movie. It's because it's Brad Pitt and the articles about the racing have hit my sm over the last year or so.

The same thing happens with new movies on streaming, I rarely see stuff about them and rarely watch them unless it's an actor I know. Christmas movies are the ones I know about most often but that's due to articles and stuff about where to watch new holiday movies.

There really aren't many ads on TV for movies outside of the ones we already know.

 

[BrianL]

This is the big thing. The only original movie in the article I've heard of is the F1 Brad Pitt movie. It's because it's Brad Pitt and the articles about the racing have hit my sm over the last year or so.

The same thing happens with new movies on streaming, I rarely see stuff about them and rarely watch them unless it's an actor I know. Christmas movies are the ones I know about most often but that's due to articles and stuff about where to watch new holiday movies.

There really aren't many ads on TV for movies outside of the ones we already know.

Right, the studios aren't marketing as aggressively for these films, then wonder why awareness is so low. I actually thought The Amateur looked pretty good, but I had no idea it came out this wekened, and I even had to look back at the article to remember the actual name - I think of it as that one with the CIA desk-job guy - because they haven't really hammered that home.

Of course, one thing that raises awareness about movies is going to the movies! That's what previews, posters, and all those big cardboard standees are for. If you go a lot, you will see that stuff all the time and it reinforces what movies are coming out.