DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

8 more days till the fed announces GDP... I am not sure if we are out of the woods yet. This feels like a pump and dump scenario but the institutional investors are playing with far more info than us so who knows.

Sep and Oct are always dicey stock market months so I do expect some more buying opportunities.

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cruise-stocks-fall-carnival-sells-133703535.html

Cruise Stocks Fall After Carnival Sells $1 Billion of Shares
Drew Singer
Thu, July 21, 2022 at 9:37 AM·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Carnival Corp. is leading peers lower on Thursday after pricing one of the year’s largest equity sales at a steeper discount than usual.

The world’s largest cruise line fell 13% after the sale priced 102 million of shares at $9.95 each overnight, according to a statement. The deal raised about $1 billion that Carnival says it might use to address 2023 debt maturities.

The offering price reflects slightly more than a 10% discount to Wednesday’s close, the steepest awarded across at least five Carnival stock offerings conducted since the start of the pandemic. The shares were offered at $9.95 to $10.50 each, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Wednesday.

 

[OKW Lover]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cruise-stocks-fall-carnival-sells-133703535.html

Cruise Stocks Fall After Carnival Sells $1 Billion of Shares
Drew Singer
Thu, July 21, 2022 at 9:37 AM·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Carnival Corp. is leading peers lower on Thursday after pricing one of the year’s largest equity sales at a steeper discount than usual.

The world’s largest cruise line fell 13% after the sale priced 102 million of shares at $9.95 each overnight, according to a statement. The deal raised about $1 billion that Carnival says it might use to address 2023 debt maturities.

The offering price reflects slightly more than a 10% discount to Wednesday’s close, the steepest awarded across at least five Carnival stock offerings conducted since the start of the pandemic. The shares were offered at $9.95 to $10.50 each, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Wondering how this might impact DIS. My thinking is little to none. DCL is a very small part of DIS while Carnival (corporate) stands on its own as solely a cruise line.

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-bond-chief-sees-disney-171504170.html

Florida’s Bond Chief Sees Disney District Being Re-Established
Danielle Moran
Fri, July 22, 2022 at 1:15 PM·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Florida’s head of bond finance said lawmakers will likely re-establish the embattled Walt Disney Co.’s special district after the state passed a law that would dissolve the governing body next year.

Ben Watkins, director of the state’s division of bond finance, said legislators are likely to create a successor district, one that will assume many of the powers that Reedy Creek Improvement District, the agency that allows Disney to preform certain municipal functions at its resort properties like emergency services, garbage collection and infrastructure funding, currently has. The new district won’t have some of the powers previously granted that were never used such as operating a nuclear power plant.

 

[RivShore]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-bond-chief-sees-disney-171504170.html

Florida’s Bond Chief Sees Disney District Being Re-Established
Danielle Moran
Fri, July 22, 2022 at 1:15 PM·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Florida’s head of bond finance said lawmakers will likely re-establish the embattled Walt Disney Co.’s special district after the state passed a law that would dissolve the governing body next year.

Ben Watkins, director of the state’s division of bond finance, said legislators are likely to create a successor district, one that will assume many of the powers that Reedy Creek Improvement District, the agency that allows Disney to preform certain municipal functions at its resort properties like emergency services, garbage collection and infrastructure funding, currently has. The new district won’t have some of the powers previously granted that were never used such as operating a nuclear power plant.

This is exactly what I expected all along - RC 2.0 would just clean up of some of the odd ball stuff in the original agreement and maybe have some increased state oversight. All else stays the same.

 

[wabbott]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...et-amid-interest-from-apple-amazon-and-disney

NFL Rumors: Google Bids for Sunday Ticket amid Interest from Apple, Amazon and Disney
Rob Goldberg - July 24, 2022

Google is reportedly the latest company to make a bid for NFL's Sunday Ticket starting in 2023, according to Tripp Mickle, Kevin Draper and Benjamin Mullin of the New York Times (h/t Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk)

If a deal is completed, NFL games would be streamed on YouTube, which is owned by Google.

Apple, Amazon and Disney are among the other companies bidding for the NFL rights, which are owned by DirecTV through the 2022 season.

 

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2022/07/thor-l...n-global-international-box-office-1235076356/

‘Minions’ Mints $640M Global As ‘Thor’ Closes In On $600M; ’Top Gun: Maverick’ Soaring To $1.3B WW This Week – International Box Office

By Nancy Tartaglione
International Box Office Editor/Senior Contributor
July 24, 2022 10:49am

UPDATE, writethru: Hollywood movies had another solid holdover session at the international box office this weekend, with slight drops essentially across the board — and some new or near milestones as audiences continue to flock to cinemas for varied fare (it helps that the mercury mercifully let up in certain areas). There were no new wide offshore releases this frame — Universal’s Nope starts overseas rollout in August.
Leading the pack at offshore turnstiles this weekend is Universal/Illumination’s Minions: The Rise Of Gru which added $42.1M from 79 markets for a 25% drop and a $342.4M offshore cume. The global total through Sunday is an estimated $640.3M. Notably, Korea went bananas with the biggest Illumination opening day ever and the best animated weekend debut of the pandemic. For its part, the UK jumped 13% — a recurring theme as we’ll see below.

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Love And Thunder is again on the doorstep of another milestone with an estimated $598.2M global through today. The offshore portion of that is $322M after a $31.8M third frame now in 48 material markets. The hold this session was -49%, better than the -53% witnessed by Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness for the comparable frame. The worldwide gross makes Thor 4 the 6th highest Hollywood release of 2022 to date.

 

[wabbott]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/38601...mates-but-stays-bullish-on-lower-expectations

Wells Fargo cuts Disney estimates but stays bullish on lower expectations
Jul. 25, 2022 12:45 PM EThttps://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DIS...on_asset:meta|first_level_url:news|symbol:DIS
By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor3 Comments

Wells Fargo is resetting its expectations for Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) with some "necessary" cuts to financial and subscriber estimates, but sees some catalysts for the company to clear a "more reasonable" bar.

The company has "seen the wheels come of the stock wagon" in 2022, analyst Steven Cahall noted: It's down 34% year-to-date, vs. the broader market's decline of 17% (see chart here).

A lot of that devaluation came in streaming, though Cahall doesn't discount recession worries and even the mild drama around whether CEO Bob Chapek had board confidence. But there are catalysts for a rally against lower expectations now, he said.

On streaming first, he's cut back subscriber expectations for both core Disney+ services and Hotstar, reducing estimated 2024 Disney+ subs to 213M from a previous 240M. (Core is "what really matters" and there he's going to 140M at the end of 2024, the low end of guidance.)

Hitting the new estimates means adding an average of 5M subs per quarter, similar to recent growth at Paramount+ and HBO Max - and "We remain bullish at this new estimate level because: (1) we think expectations are even lower; and (2) Disney+ will look very different in 24 months given content amort is set to double to $9.4B."

He's also trimming estimates in Parks on the slowing economy, though: Taking 2023 per capita spending and hotel revenue per available room down 6% before a 2024 recovery. He's cut operating income expectations for Parks by 12% in 2023, to $8.6B (vs. $9.1B consensus), and proactively cuts ad sales.

For Q3, he sees adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 (vs. consensus for $1.00) and for full 2023 and 2024, $5.16 and $5.95 respectively, down from $5.81 and $6.59.

Meanwhile, with ESPN+ having just raised its price to $9.99 per month from $6.99, the service could go fully "a la carte any day."

"We see a big catalyst ahead and think management will too: launch ESPN+ with all sports rights at an (average revenue per user) that makes a DTC sub just as profitable as linear," Cahall said.

That magic ARPU is about $25 per month, he says, based on the $15/month linear affiliate fee with a 20% linear operating margin.

Disney (DIS) is set to report earnings after the close on Aug. 10; consensus expectations are for $1.00 per share in earnings on revenues of $21B.

 

[clarker99]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/38601...mates-but-stays-bullish-on-lower-expectations

Wells Fargo cuts Disney estimates but stays bullish on lower expectations
Jul. 25, 2022 12:45 PM EThttps://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DIS?source=content_type:react|section:main_content|section_asset:meta|first_level_url:news|symbolIS
By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor3 Comments

Wells Fargo is resetting its expectations for Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) with some "necessary" cuts to financial and subscriber estimates, but sees some catalysts for the company to clear a "more reasonable" bar.

The company has "seen the wheels come of the stock wagon" in 2022, analyst Steven Cahall noted: It's down 34% year-to-date, vs. the broader market's decline of 17% (see chart here).

A lot of that devaluation came in streaming, though Cahall doesn't discount recession worries and even the mild drama around whether CEO Bob Chapek had board confidence. But there are catalysts for a rally against lower expectations now, he said.

On streaming first, he's cut back subscriber expectations for both core Disney+ services and Hotstar, reducing estimated 2024 Disney+ subs to 213M from a previous 240M. (Core is "what really matters" and there he's going to 140M at the end of 2024, the low end of guidance.)

Hitting the new estimates means adding an average of 5M subs per quarter, similar to recent growth at Paramount+ and HBO Max - and "We remain bullish at this new estimate level because: (1) we think expectations are even lower; and (2) Disney+ will look very different in 24 months given content amort is set to double to $9.4B."

He's also trimming estimates in Parks on the slowing economy, though: Taking 2023 per capita spending and hotel revenue per available room down 6% before a 2024 recovery. He's cut operating income expectations for Parks by 12% in 2023, to $8.6B (vs. $9.1B consensus), and proactively cuts ad sales.

For Q3, he sees adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 (vs. consensus for $1.00) and for full 2023 and 2024, $5.16 and $5.95 respectively, down from $5.81 and $6.59.

Meanwhile, with ESPN+ having just raised its price to $9.99 per month from $6.99, the service could go fully "a la carte any day."

"We see a big catalyst ahead and think management will too: launch ESPN+ with all sports rights at an (average revenue per user) that makes a DTC sub just as profitable as linear," Cahall said.

That magic ARPU is about $25 per month, he says, based on the $15/month linear affiliate fee with a 20% linear operating margin.

Disney (DIS) is set to report earnings after the close on Aug. 10; consensus expectations are for $1.00 per share in earnings on revenues of $21B.

So, basically these analysts are all correcting their crazy high estimates for streaming down to a reasonable number? Lol.

 

[wabbott]

If I read that correctly, parks is projected to have operating PROFIT of around 9 billion, and the total company-wide REVENUE is 21 billion. If that be so, it's glaringly obvious where all the money's made.

 

[OKW Lover]

If I read that correctly, parks is projected to have operating PROFIT of around 9 billion, and the total company-wide REVENUE is 21 billion. If that be so, it's glaringly obvious where all the money's made.

Not without knowing the relevant costs involved.

 

[wabbott]

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2022/05/q2-fy22-earnings.pdf

Here's quarter 2 numbers

Company-wide:
Revenues - $20.2 billion
Operating profit - $3.7 billion

Parks, Experiences & Products:
Revenues - $6.6 billion
Operating profit - $1.7 billion

Media & Entertainment:
Revenues - $13.6 billion
Operating profit - $1.9 billion

Media operating profit margin - 1.9/13.6=14%
Parks operating profit margin - 1.7/6.6=26%

Here's another article on the Wells Fargo estimates

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/07/disney-plus-value-vs-netflix-1234744963/

 

[OKW Lover]

It might be interesting/instructive to compare segment profit margin over a long period, say 10 years. Quarterly data can be subject to wild variations.

 

[wabbott]

We'll have some new data come August 10. IIRC, the second quarter still had Shanghai Disney closed.

 

[clarker99]

Jerome Powell (July 27, 2022): 'I don`t think the US economy is in a recession right now'.

 

[clarker99]

Jerome Powell (July 27, 2022): 'I don`t think the US economy is in a recession right now'.

The markets really like this quote.

For me, the biggest thing is that it is not really obvious if the USA are in a recession or not. Maybe the economy just kind maintains itself around +/- 0% growth for a while as everyone tries to figure out this post-Covid world? Jobs are still being created while Boomers are retiring in droves.

 

[Dis]

100% correct. This is why Lightyear bombed. It will eventually extend to all of Disney if they don't get better leadership.

The markets really like this quote.

For me, the biggest thing is that it is not really obvious if the USA are in a recession or not. Maybe the economy just kind maintains itself around +/- 0% growth for a while as everyone tries to figure out this post-Covid world? Jobs are still being created while Boomers are retiring in droves.

"inflation is transitory" Remember that one.

 

[mom2rtk]

Jerome Powell (July 27, 2022): 'I don`t think the US economy is in a recession right now'.

Depends on what your definition of the word “recession” is.

 

[xdan0920]

Depends on what your definition of the word “recession” is.

The definition is whatever the government says it is. And if they need to change it next quarter, well, that’s ok. It’s for our own good.

 

[clarker99]

"inflation is transitory" Remember that one.

I don't really get phased by the quotes. I am not on Powell's side and I am not against him. He is trying to do a job. Never gonna make everyone happy. Obv inflation is ongoing. I am guessing he meant high inflation? At least I hope that is what he meant. lol.

Depends on what your definition of the word “recession” is.

The economy is not Wall st and Wall st is not the economy. Today does not feel like April 2020 or 2008/09. Jobs are being redistributed post-Covid. Boomers retiring faster than ever and the demographics are now such that you can't fill all those positions. Jobs programs, automation and immigration are needed to help fill positions. It will take time as companies and gov'ts adapt.

Also, we just had the longest bull market in history. Smarter people than me started saying that Wall St was overcooked back in 2017/18. So we are due for a cooling off period.