DEBATE: Does Disney understand their market?

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by raidermatt
Comments like "Disney snobs will not admit that Universal built two great parks" are pointless. If the parks are great, attendance will bear that out, and so far it hasn't.

Just like the local buger joint down the street makes much better food then McDonalds, but we see which one has the most customers.

 

[Bob O]

Raidermatt- Universal started in FLA being the underdog in regards to name recognition/brand loyalty etc, which has helped disney greatly and does hurt Universal when they build excellant parks. But we will have to wait and see what the situation is in 25 yrs when Universal will ahve the time to overcome their underdog status, escpecially when they will ahve the time to develop loveable family charcters and disney may start to lose the copyrights on their(which im against). So all things considered i think they are doing quite wll and independant surveys bear that out as regards to the quality of their parks.
With the popularity of the Nick channel and the characters they produce Universal has a good chance to even the playing field and with IOA they have shown they can out do Disney!!

 

[raidermatt]

Ok, I'll debate your way.

Just like the local buger joint down the street makes much better food then McDonalds, but we see which one has the most customers.

But Disney is better than Universal because my family goes there. Only a Universal snob would refuse to admit that.

 

[raidermatt]

BobO, I have no idea what direction Universal will be going in 25 years. What I do know is that whatever direction is being taken now will have to produce adequate returns long before then, or it will be changed.

How Disney does is still up to Disney. If they stay the current course, they will continue to provide Universal with ample opportunities to steal market share. Whether Universal ultimately capitalizes on that remains to be seen.

 

[hopemax]

The fact is that Universal's attendance fell more than Disney's did last year.

Well...IOA was down 500,000 visitors, and US was down 800,000. MK down 600,000, Epcot 1.6 million, MGM and AK were both down 500,000.

The reason I'm pointing this out is that a lot of families cancelled vacations in 2001. If we look at the extreme example of 1 family with a 6 day vacation with 1 day at each of the parks. From a percentage basis MK would have experienced less of a decline than IOA (due to having more visitors in the first place). But from another POV the decline at both Universal & Disney was the same: 1 less family showed up.

This is where I would love to know how much cross-over there is between Disney and Universal's numbers.

 

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by raidermatt
Ok, I'll debate your way.



But Disney is better than Universal because my family goes there. Only a Universal snob would refuse to admit that.

I said...better ?????

 

[raidermatt]

My only conclusion, hope, was that Universal didn't steal away any market share last year, despite all of the practices that were praised. They, in fact, lost market share.

Don't get me wrong, losing guests is not a positive situation for either resort.

Maybe this year will tell a different story, but we won't know until the numbers come out.

But regardless, the point of Scoop bringing up IoA wasn't who was better, or even whether Universal is stealing guests from Disney's parks.

The question was why was IoA a disappointment vs. projections when more was invested in it than DCA or DLP.

 

[Bob O]

Regarding the cost of IOA, does the numbers you hear only count IOA, or does it include the costs of IOA/Portifino/Citywalk???
As for projections i think both USF and Disney set the projections high so as to justify the building/expanding they are doing because once its built its too late to stop and tear it down.

 

[raidermatt]

I said...better ?????

Yes, you did.

Just like the local buger joint down the street makes much better food then McDonalds, but we see which one has the most customers.

You drew an analogy, saying that the local burger joint was better but didn't have more customers, and this situation was "just like" the Universal/Disney situation.

If its just like it, then you are saying Universal is better.

Otherwise, the analogy was pointless.

 

[EUROPA]

Yeah I know just in one of those moods.

Some things at Disney are better then Universal and that works the other way as well. Compare Disney's latest offerings to IOA though and guess what?? IOA wins hands down. I'm sorry if you guys can't see that.

 

[raidermatt]

Yeah I know just in one of those moods.

We all have 'em...

Compare Disney's latest offerings to IOA though and guess what?? IOA wins hands down. I'm sorry if you guys can't see that.

Whoa, timeout....

I can't say "hands down", but I'm willing to say IoA is "better" than DCA (which I have been to) and probably better than DLP.

AK is another story, and I just can't say which is better for sure without having been to IoA.

I think you have some valid points. Even if we think that DCA and DLP are themed and detailed just as much as IoA, the fact remains that IoA is a MUCH more complete park.

My main point when we talk about the future is that NOTHING that either Universal or Disney (except maybe TDS) is doing compares favorably to past Disney parks, particularly MK and Epcot, particularly when it comes to "all family" appeal. There might be an attraction here or there, but not overall. So Disney still has the ability to make what it wants out of its future, and really wouldn't have to worry about Universal if they would just take care of their own business.

That doesn't mean Universal couldn't succeed if Disney were truly focused on the right things, but it would be much more difficult than it is for them right now.

Of course another angle to that is that if Universal really wanted to take a gamble, they could REALLY employ the old Disney philosophy, but they would have to do it without the built in advantages that Disney has, which makes it a much bigger risk for them. I don't expect them to do that because they are an established company that has a lot to lose if it doesn't work.

But yes, if Disney is going to do no better than DCA and DLP, its certainly within the realm of possibility that Universal can make further inroads into Disney's market. I just think that if they really want to do that, they are making some of the same mistakes Disney is, like focusing on the two opposite ends of the attraction spectrum (thrills and kiddie rides) rather than on the middle.

But it is harder to thrill people without using things that create height requirements, so right now everyone is taking the easy way out.

 

[EUROPA]

Most of what is in AK is on par but not as complete at IOA. I'm talking about the Aladin,DCA,Dinorama, Primevil Hurl, Me you and ABC(or whatever its called)

You might change you thoughts about what Universal is doing (compared to past Disney efforts) once you've been on Spiderman, Jurassic Park, Poseidon’s Furry or step into Seuss Landing.... It really is a great park. I personally think that it needs a couple more smaller attractions and two more E-Tickets and it really will be a "complete knock you socks off... need to spend three days there type of park". Plus Universal is adding Three new E-ticket attractions to the Studios within the next year or so it just seems that Universal is just doing "Disney" type of attractions better right now then Disney is doing right now. With the plans that Universal has for the future and the current direction of Disney seems that Universal is putting themselves in a great position.

PS...I don't consider TDS in the picture for obvious reasons.

 

[d-r]

Melissa and I have been discussing whether we should spend a whole day at IOA or not. My point is there is no need to. My thinking is, go at opening, fast pass for Spiderman, ride hulk stand by, ride spiderman, walk through suess and ride cat in the hat, walk through jurassic park and ride the river ride, fast pass for dueling dragons and watch the posieden thing and ride dueling dragons, then walk through toon town or whatever they call it on the way out - skip the two water rides since it will be January anyway. Then I say go to USF, ride men in black, T3-D, and back to the future and you've done everything worth doing. Her point is to take more relaxed. I don't see the point of it, I think I'd be bored and don't want to blow two days on it. Of course they probably close at 5 or 6 so I guess it might be sort of tight. That's how I see it though, IOA=3 or 4 attractions, USF = 2 or 3.

DR

 

[Another Voice]

Wait a minute - Disney builds flops in Anaheim and Paris but that's okay because Universal had a slow start three years ago in Orlando.

Wow - the logic....

 

[PKS44]

AV-

I think the argument is that Disney was prudent in not spending a lot since even IOA with all of it's spending and "WOW factor" was not "successful." I don't buy it because I think that a properly built AK, DCA, DLP would have enjoyed a DisneySea sort of success because Disney had a brand identity that Universal lacked when they opened IOA. Now Disney has developed a different brand identity- with the theme parks amny people think it best to stay away until they build it up...

Paul

 

[HB2K]

...and none of Disney's latest theme park offerings can come close to matching IOA.

IOA is so much more than thrill rides & coasters (There are really only 2 costers....unless you count Dueling Dragons as two coasters).

Popeye & Bluto makes Kali look pathetic...the "Me Ship the Olive" play area has drawn raves....Dudley do Right falls short of Splash for theming, but it is still another ride the whole family can ride on...the whole Jurassic park area is fantastic to the point that you feel like you're walking in the movie...Spiderman is another ride which the whole family can go on and enjoy (and it's probably the best ride I've ever been on).

All that and I haven't even spoken of Dr. Suess Island which is visual & theme OVERLOAD for the kids....

For more info I would suggest reading this Jim Hill writes for Amusement Park.com re: IOA

Jim's article was what made me decide to give IOA a chance on my last trip...and IOA will be included on all future trips in place of DAK....

Ask gcurling....he also wrote a review of IOA on these boards and he also has a younger child....get his input.

P.S. Matt, it was a incomplete pass....

 

[larworth]

I never thought this thread would veer off into an IOA discussion.

Scoop, I assume you were trying to show that other players in the industry also do a poor job of knowing how the market will respond to their product?????

Universal's mis-read can be taken as another example of the potential inherent uncertainty in this market. However, with only 1/5 the customer base, many less years in the business, and with the added burden of trying to build brand awareness at the same time, I can see why their ability to predict customer reaction might be more difficult.

Best accounts say IOA, the park itself, costs about the same as DCA and DAK (circa $800 million). I have no doubt it has underperformed their goals. However, it doesn’t appear to be the huge albatross that some say. Here is an excerpt from a recent article. story

Theme parks, although hit hard by an industrywide slump since the terrorist attacks, have been a profitable business for Vivendi. They contribute more than $300 million a year in cash flow and are worth $2 billion to $4 billion, according to analysts' estimates.

I didn’t bring up the DLP case. I don’t know what they originally projected for attendance, but it didn’t take long to get to 10 million guests. I bet this was not too far off their projections. What we do know is that they really mis-read the culture factor. They had to make a lot of changes after opening to make it more palatable to western Europeans. I would put this in the negative column on market understanding.

 

[Andrew015]

I don't know about other disney stores around the country....

The one at my local mall has gone down hill quick. Now, 85% of the merchandise is kids clothing. No unique items remain in the store whatsoever. The case that used to have Mickey Watches in it now has little girls underwear. The collectable pieces in the front case now have stuffed animals in them. And I was told that there are only 3 stores in the COUNTRY that now have the collectable pieces. The nearest one to me here in Ohio is in Chicago.

The same holds true for the stores in WDW. None of them are unique anymore. You can pretty much count on finding kids clothes in almost any store. Bunea Vista, the World Showcase, and the Centorium used to have the most unique items/shops. Now, for the most part, they're one in the same.

 

[Bob O]

dr-From your post it seems that you must jog around IOA/USF and miss most of what the parks have to offer. Hb2k makes great points, and as for great rides like Spiderman/Hulk/DD/Cat in the Hat one time is never enough and with a ride like spiederman you notice things you missed the first time thru the ride. And while at USF i dont understand why you wouldnt want to see a great show like the Horror makeup Show, excellant rides like Jaws/Twister/ET and MIB is a ride that cvan be enjoyed numerous times as you try to out do your last score as examples. My family spends 3 days at USF/IOA and on site to avoid lines and that isnt enought time,escpecially when kids can see Barney(makes me barf),Fievel Playland/Curious George,Animal Show. That would be akin to going to MGM and going to tot/rncr/Indy Jones stunt show and then leaving and saying you saw the whole park!!!
The parks at USF are different from disney but i think that is a major positive and not a negative and it definitely in my family appeals to the younger kids which bolds well for the future. As much as we may love Mickey alot of the younger generation doesnt share that appreciation and see little of him on the tv they are watching and who they identify with.

 

[larworth]

Nope, as Matt correctly pointed out, my question is simply whether IOA should be considered a "full" or "complete" park and, if so, why hasn't it met expectations

I would say it was close to being "full" for it’s target market (those that can ride the coasters and the water rides). Less than full as a family / cold weather park.

It didn't met their expectations, but in hindsight is 5MM guests for IOA a poor result given market realities ?? Someone will have to dig up those attendance statistics again (ahhh).

One scenario might have the 5MM IOA customers being net additions for USF in the same saturated market where DAK added few new guests for WDW. If that was the case, than given IOA’s smaller target market (wonder how much this subtracts?), and without the brand identity/existing installed base of WDW to generate awareness and provide ready made guests, maybe 5MM is what they should have expected?

They mis-read their market potential, but may have still built a park that maximized the value that was available to them???