I've been looking at this for a while now and it's been bothering me. Meyer Werft has been able to deliver 2 cruise ships per year for several years now. Suddenly, they have 3 cruise ships due to be delivered in 2011 and 2012 with the 3rd ship those years being the new Disney ships. So, I'm looking for a conspiracy theory... I freely admit that I am NOT a shipbuilding expert. Feel free to poke holes (or fun) at my ramblings. There are a lot of 'ifs ands or buts' here. But, that is the fun of the supposition... Have at it! Beat me up! And remember it's a working theory, so be a little nice
Scheduling
Meyer Werft has an obligation to deliver one 252m ship to Carnival (AIDA) every spring for 6 years (2 delivered so far). The ship yard is also building 5 Celebrity Solstice class ships. There will be one ship delivered each year through 2012.
On the order book listings I am seeing, the
DCL ships are expected to be delivered in the spring of 2011 and 2012. Some quick calculations will give us some rough build dates. If you use 3/31/2011 as a delivery date and work backwards:
delivery: 3/31/2011
sea trials (45 days): 2/14/2011
undocking (15 days): 1/31/2011
keel laying (365 days = FAST build): 1/31/2010
1/31/2010. That sort of sounds like a long way off. Except there is no place to build the thing and building an entirely new dock will take a year or more and require the space to build it... Meyer Werft has not announced any such undertaking. Assuming a one year build on a new dock it would have to start building late this year or early next year.
No place to build
Meyer Werft has 2 covered dock areas. Dock 1 is 370m long. Dock 2 is 384m long. Dock 2 is currently under construction extending the dock by 120m, making it 504m long. Also not that this extension is announced shortly after DCL opens it's Papenburg office.
The hole in the schedule
Solstice Nov 2008
Equinox Summer 2009
Eclipse Summer 2010
<Hole>
X2011 Fall 2011
X2012 Fall 2012
Why do the 2011 & 2012 builds slip to fall when the previous 2 are able to be delivered on a 12 month (or less) interval? The 12 month interval is in itself a little mind boggling for a ship this size. Even the 70,000 GT AIDAdiva took 366 days from keel laying to undocking. The 122,000 GT Solstice was 512 days and 93,500GT Norwegian Gem was 421 days.
Also note that the SIXTH AIDA delivery is similarly delayed by a month or more the following year:
AIDAdiva April 16th 2007
AIDABella April 14th 2008
AIDALuna April 2009
UNNAMED April 2010
UNNAMED April 2011
UNNAMED May 2012
Holes in the holes? I have no idea where these guys get their dates for new builds! But, I'm guessing insider info...
OMG - build in multiple pieces AGAIN?
According to earlier reports, the new DCL ships should be 120 ft. longer than the Magic/Wonder. That comes to about 340m (964+120 * .3048). That is considerably longer than the Celebrity Solstice at 315m. There is clearly no room for the 3 required assembled ships in the 2 current docks.
AIDA ships 252m in dock I @ 370m (370-252 = 118)
Celeb ships 315m in Dock II @ 504m (504-315 = 189)
Disney Dream 340m (clearly larger than 118m or 189m)
This gives roughly 307m of workable dock space. Not quite enough to build a complete ship, but enough to build the vast majority of the vessel in separate floatable parts that could be moved together.
So, if you built the new ships in 2 or more pieces... The first piece could be built in the 118m of leftover space in dock I. This piece would have to be removed, or at least moved to the rear of the dock, in the spring when the AIDA ship was moved out of the dock - AIDA ships have been delivered in April each year, undocking in Feb or Mar.
When do they mate the parts? I have no idea. But, it could be more work could be done on the Solstice class ship after it has been removed from the shed. It would have to have a fairly complete shell and probably an operating power train. But, then most of the work would be done inside the ship. Perhaps the month and half the Solstice is spending outdoors is some sort of trial run at some of this? It undocked on August 10 and won't start sea trials until it's River Ems passage scheduled for Sept 29, 2008.
Other options
1) Assemble the ship outside of the covered dock area.

Disney's top secret programs would NEVER allow this.
2) and 3) are pretty much the same. Build them someplace else. A new covered dock built in Papenburg or elsewhere. Either way it's not in the existing facilities.
Early delivery?
Assuming Meyer Werft can take advantage of their newly extended shed early in 2009, could we possibly see an early delivery of the first ship? I would think that the end of that previously noted Gap in the Solstice class schedule would be the time frame. That would make the ship deliverable in 2010.
Unrelated non-surprise discoveries
I'm not sure if it's been announced or not. I hadn't seen it anywhere official. Tillberg Design is once again working on the new DCL builds. This is no surprise as Tillberg Design worked on the Magic and is huge in the cruise industry. One of the more recent things they have worked on is the ice bar concept for NCL's F3 class ships.
Termöhlen Ship Interior Design lists as present projects for 2008 (
http://www.termoehlen-design.com/Reference.pdf)
Ship: Disney 1
Owner:
Disney Cruise Line
Yard: Meyer Werft S. 687
Designer: Tillberg Design
Area: Disabled Cabins
Our Part: Coordination & Constr. Drawings
It also appears on
http://www.tillbergdesign.com/projects_marine.html
Disney C. L. Newbuid X 2
Disney Cruise Line New b. 2011/12 Meyer Werft, Germany
Yran & Storbraaten Architecture & Design are also working on the new ships according to
http://www.avidcruiser.com/blog/2008/08/01/build-a-ship-regent-taps-guests/. Again, no surprise, as the company also worked on the Magic & Wonder.
No stranger to ships large or small, Petter Yran (pictured), president of Oslo-based Yran & Storbraaten, has had a hand in planning more than 100 vessels, beginning with the Sea Goddess ships in the early 1980s. Heading up Regent’s design efforts, he and his team also are currently at work on new ships for Disney Cruise Line, Seabourn Cruise Line and Oceania Cruises.
from a recent YSA project:
http://www.ysa.no/projects/magellan.htm
Magellan marina (NOT Disney ship)
Magellan indoor pool (NOT Disney ship)
Features for the new ships
AND there will be an adult slide and a covered pool. Although the covered pool will only be accessible to those lucky folks in Disney Suite area.
Yes, I made up the part about the adult slide and covered pool. Those are just my guesses

It could look like that magellan design, though....