D23 Predictions

[lockedoutlogic]

I've never gotten to experience the true Yeti.

I thought it was pretty cool.

 

[AMusicLifeForMe]

Mine train is a kiddie coaster with a 2 hour wait...it's barnstormer 2.0.

That actually makes the case for the tron ride: they need more heavily load rides. And a lot of the big draws are not young...splash, space, big thunder all need the ability to have extensive refurbished...with 20 mil in that park the only way to alleviate the strain is with a new draw...they can then work on stitch and buzz lightyear and maybe get a whole new "land" out of it.

I'm a fan of original rides too...I don't like too much cross contamination between Paris, Orlando, and Anaheim...

...but few are going to Chinese parks in that market...and slightly more with Tokyo...if they have to clone...doing it there is not a bad option. Plus as pointed out...disney doesn't pay the full bill for research and development in those parks...saves some pennies.

I understand it is a kid coaster, but Disney did advertise it as an E-ticket attraction I believe. That would definitely explain the long waits in my mind. To be honest, I still don't know why it has that much of a wait. I wouldn't wait more than 40 minutes for it. I will gladly let Tron come in.

 

[wilkeliza]

I've never gotten to experience the true Yeti.

Neither have I. I only know a handful of Disney friends who actually made it while she was working.

 

[Roxyfire]

I understand it is a kid coaster, but Disney did advertise it as an E-ticket attraction I believe. That would definitely explain the long waits in my mind. To be honest, I still don't know why it has that much of a wait. I wouldn't wait more than 40 minutes for it. I will gladly let Tron come in.

I like it because Snow White is one of my favorites, but we usually burn a FP on it. I always feel a little bad for people who wait for that ride for 2 hours and it's so tame. It is mostly for little ones so I don't begrudge the "family coaster" status but all are correct, it's not worth the wait. But most things in MK aren't worth the waits that can build up between 12-6 pm.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I understand it is a kid coaster, but Disney did advertise it as an E-ticket attraction I believe. That would definitely explain the long waits in my mind. To be honest, I still don't know why it has that much of a wait. I wouldn't wait more than 40 minutes for it. I will gladly let Tron come in.

The consumers have been really dumb (my opinion...don't shoot!) about mine train and be our guest In particular...

One is a moderate amusement park ride...the other is a glorified cafeteria...

It just proves how desperate people are In the magic kingdom...the crowds are above comfortable capacity (hence 47 ridiculous Halloween parties)...

People will crawl through the desert towards a oasis mirage...and when they find out it isn't real...they'll drink the sand.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I like it because Snow White is one of my favorites, but we usually burn a FP on it. I always feel a little bad for people who wait for that ride for 2 hours and it's so tame. It is mostly for little ones so I don't begrudge the "family coaster" status but all are correct, it's not worth the wait. But most things in MK aren't worth the waits that can build up between 12-6 pm.

Only way to alleviate that is more atttactions that draw...at least take the heat off older/more tame rides.

90 minute wait for Peter Pan right now...it's just beyond excuse.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Neither have I. I only know a handful of Disney friends who actually made it while she was working.

I saw him 2 or 3 times..it was really cool. That's why I don't suffer excuses when people try to make Everest "great" without it.

With it...it's a great wdi designed mix of ride system and AA/effects...Without it's a moderate coaster in an elaborate shell.

Splash mountain is a silly flume ride without the AAs...towers is a drop tower without the pre-effects and the story intro...

Together, they are some of the greatest rides ever conceived and instant classics...

Everest isn't getting that chance.

 

[tstidm1]

I'm totally take the conservative approach for Disney World. We only get mentions of a timeframe in 2018 Toy Story Land opens and maybe more Star Wars Land Ride information (specifically whether you have to transfer vehicles midway through). The only Domestic parks news we get is Disneyland's Marvel expansion. Let's not forget that Pandora isn't doing that to overall attendance (Disney Dish Podcast specifically mentioned by Len Testa) and International attendance is down 20-60% (NPR All things consider last week). That means we see announcements of upcharge events instead of big ideas. You can make fun of me if start getting 50th anniversary announcements on Saturday. I want to believe it, but the financials tell me to be conservative.

 

[wilkeliza]

I'm totally take the conservative approach for Disney World. We only get mentions of a timeframe in 2018 Toy Story Land opens and maybe more Star Wars Land Ride information (specifically whether you have to transfer vehicles midway through). The only Domestic parks news we get is Disneyland's Marvel expansion. Let's not forget that Pandora isn't doing that to overall attendance (Disney Dish Podcast specifically mentioned by Len Testa) and International attendance is down 20-60% (NPR All things consider last week). That means we see announcements of upcharge events instead of big ideas. You can make fun of me if start getting 50th anniversary announcements on Saturday. I want to believe it, but the financials tell me to be conservative.

Don't misinterpret attendance down for money down. Disney has seen attendance go down but money go up. Not saying that will mean massive announcements but just the parks aren't hurting for money at this moment. The only portion of the Disney company not pulling their weight is ESPN.

 

[tstidm1]

Don't misinterpret attendance down for money down. Disney has seen attendance go down but money go up. Not saying that will mean massive announcements but just the parks aren't hurting for money at this moment. The only portion of the Disney company not pulling their weight is ESPN.

That is true. I view the money is up while the attendance is down as a disincentive for them to improve the parks. Money is still flowing into the parks, so there is no incentive to increase attendance. I know this is Cynical, but I think the 50th anniversary talk is a year or two too early. I think the 50th talk will be the big announcement of D23 2019.

 

[jknezek]

Don't misinterpret attendance down for money down. Disney has seen attendance go down but money go up. Not saying that will mean massive announcements but just the parks aren't hurting for money at this moment. The only portion of the Disney company not pulling their weight is ESPN.

Not true. The Disney Channels are also showing significant drops in viewership, which is a huge problem since they don't rely on commercial revenue. Disney's entire Cable division is facing headwinds. They are all still contributing to the bottom line, but the trends are not pretty. The Parks, Cinema, and Merchandise divisions are bright spots right now, but I think Disney realizes they need to continue to invest to continue those trends.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I'm totally take the conservative approach for Disney World. We only get mentions of a timeframe in 2018 Toy Story Land opens and maybe more Star Wars Land Ride information (specifically whether you have to transfer vehicles midway through). The only Domestic parks news we get is Disneyland's Marvel expansion. Let's not forget that Pandora isn't doing that to overall attendance (Disney Dish Podcast specifically mentioned by Len Testa) and International attendance is down 20-60% (NPR All things consider last week). That means we see announcements of upcharge events instead of big ideas. You can make fun of me if start getting 50th anniversary announcements on Saturday. I want to believe it, but the financials tell me to be conservative.

I'm 95% in your camp...

For me the wildcard is that espn and the disney channels revenues are collapsing...which means the parks have to step up...which means they have to get people there.

If park attendance were to start to fall...combined with their cable problems that won't go away...the stock will collapse. That's where 70% of the profits come from.

 

[umichigan10]

Considering what they just blew in AK and what they're doing at studios? Yeah...this is the smart play.

I'm not sure you're gonna get anywhere near what people expect from the Epcot stuff either...

The amount of "our sources say..." stuff floating out there right now would probably eclipse the famous "disney decade" speech.

True but the decade of neglect means they have to make up for lost time

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Don't misinterpret attendance down for money down. Disney has seen attendance go down but money go up. Not saying that will mean massive announcements but just the parks aren't hurting for money at this moment. The only portion of the Disney company not pulling their weight is ESPN.

There's a limit to how much more money they can make off less people...and they know they're are getting to close to it.

It's a point of critical mass when it comes to travel: the minute you have the rep of a ripoff/overpriced...defections could go en masse.

Don't forget they have a real competitor in the market for the first time either...that's becoming an issue.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

True but the decade of neglect means they have to make up for lost time

You think a guy looking to go golden parachuting really cares?

 

[umichigan10]

You think a guy looking to go golden parachuting really cares?

The Orlando suits definitely do because they see the rising interest i in the resort up I-4. It depends how much they can leverage for improvements from their superiors

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Not true. The Disney Channels are also showing significant drops in viewership, which is a huge problem since they don't rely on commercial revenue. Disney's entire Cable division is facing headwinds. They are all still contributing to the bottom line, but the trends are not pretty. The Parks, Cinema, and Merchandise divisions are bright spots right now, but I think Disney realizes they need to continue to invest to continue those trends.

Movies, merch and other media only account for 30% of OI and profit...so it's up to parks to stopgap the losses at tv...

(Not to be confused with merch FROM parks...which is the golden goose)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The Orlando suits definitely do because they see the rising interest i in the resort up I-4. It depends how much they can leverage for improvements from their superiors

TDO?

Lol...I've been there...they have no real power/say...

 

[wilkeliza]

There's a limit to how much more money they can make off less people...and they know they're are getting to close to it.

It's a point of critical mass when it comes to travel: the minute you have the rep of a ripoff/overpriced...defections could go en masse.

Don't forget they have a real competitor in the market for the first time either...that's becoming an issue.

The competition is the biggest reason I see them actually putting money into the parks. I was just saying it isn't like they don't have the money to spend because attendance is down. Heck attendance being down plus it going up at Universal would be the biggest push to spend that extra cash. They won't be able to survive on SW alone since a lot of the SW crowd would be perfectly happy doing 1 day or 2 days at DHS and then going over to Uni if they are super hero and potterheads. Disney has got to get back into the game full on again or Universal will surpass them in the next 10 years. Maybe not full percentages since their parks are smaller at the moment but even in the last 5 years I've had some of the most hard core Disney fans (including myself) start to shave off days of vacation for Universal. Heck even though we felt nickled and dimed over there we at least felt like our money got us something and the Team members were all spectacular.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

That is true. I view the money is up while the attendance is down as a disincentive for them to improve the parks. Money is still flowing into the parks, so there is no incentive to increase attendance. I know this is Cynical, but I think the 50th anniversary talk is a year or two too early. I think the 50th talk will be the big announcement of D23 2019.

Once the asteroid passes zero barrier...the destruction is absolute.