Curious - resale history... Has it ever been like this

[twoj]

I read all of these posts about how difficult it is to buy a resale... I am so thankful we bought last summer and that we bought more points than we wanted...

But does anyone know of the market for resales has ever been this skewed toward the sellers?

 

[DebbieB]

I read all of these posts about how difficult it is to buy a resale... I am so thankful we bought last summer and that we bought more points than we wanted...

But does anyone know of the market for resales has ever been this skewed toward the sellers?

I've owned BWV since 1999 and this is the first time I recall the prices being above the $65 I paid direct. If I didn't love it so much, it would be a good time to sell!

 

[lovin'fl]

I've owned BWV since 1999 and this is the first time I recall the prices being above the $65 I paid direct. If I didn't love it so much, it would be a good time to sell!

I bought OKW resale in 2006 for $76pp and BWV was a bit more than that...like $85pp.
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=720134&page=154

It was going up for a bit after we bought in 2006 and then when the real estate market took a dive, DVC resale prices began to go down too. And just recently they shot up. I think it has to do with a bunch of stuff DVD did before opening VGF. We added HH points in early 2012 for $50pp and then added AKV this spring for $66pp...then DVD announced it's price increase and VGF was about to open and there were rumors of more resale restrictions and DVD was ROFRing a lot of contracts...DVD had wait lists for all their 'sold out' resorts and bam, there was a frenzy to buy resale and prices shot up. We added another HH contract not too long ago and paid $60pp.

 

[Nabas]

I read all of these posts about how difficult it is to buy a resale... I am so thankful we bought last summer and that we bought more points than we wanted...

But does anyone know of the market for resales has ever been this skewed toward the sellers?

Prices were high up till 2008 when economy turned south. Typical resale prices for that year were:

OKW - $61.00
SSR - $70.00
VWL - $70.00
BWV - $77.00
AKV - $84.00
BCV - $87.00

With prices generally above that peak now, I can't help but wonder if a market correction will be in order.

Let's see what happens to inventory this winter.

 

[twoj]

Yeah, the pricing seems really high and at the same time I feel so bad for people who can't even get offers communicated to sellers because the points go under contract so fast...

I was so anxious back a year ago when the inventory was plentiful to have a contract in place, I cannot even imagine what it is like now!

It is all so interesting!

 

[Mickbee]

Prices were high up till 2008 when economy turned south. Typical resale prices for that year were:

OKW - $61.00
SSR - $70.00
VWL - $70.00
BWV - $77.00
AKV - $84.00
BCV - $87.00

With prices generally above that peak now, I can't help but wonder if a market correction will be in order.

Let's see what happens to inventory this winter.

I believe the resale prices will continue to trend upwards for a bit longer, then level out.

There is far too big of a gap between resale and Disney direct, making the resale a significant "Bargain" by comparison.

An interesting statistic would be the change in the sales percentage Disney Direct vs resale... Several years ago we would mainly purchase from Disney direct pre-2009, but today there is too big of a gap in pricing to consider direct.

Example: Resale BLT $102 vs Disney $165... A few years back when BLT was the main focus, we sold multiple BLT contracts at $102 and AKL at $98, close to direct prices!

My guess, and it is only a guess... the resale market will level set somewhere between 10-20% under Disney direct prices.


Thoughts regarding the time on market:

We sold several contracts over the past 12+ years and they typically sold fairly quickly for at or near asking price/market rate.

IMHO the demand has always been there and people are waiting for their ideal contract and pouncing.

We recently purchased multiple resale contracts to rebuild our point allotment and had our target list - resort/points/price threshold set. By constantly monitoring, we were able to scoop up the "match" as soon as they hit the market, sometimes within minutes of posting. Granted it was sheer luck we happened to have a match AND be online at the right time.

 

[LisaS]

When we bought (2006?), BWV was selling for around $84 per point and contracts for many resorts (BCV especially) were getting snapped up very quickly. If you wanted a small contract you had to be on TTS's mailing list because many contracts were purchased at list price before they could even get them listed on the website.

 

[lovin'fl]

Prices were high up till 2008 when economy turned south. Typical resale prices for that year were:

OKW - $61.00
SSR - $70.00
VWL - $70.00
BWV - $77.00
AKV - $84.00
BCV - $87.00

With prices generally above that peak now, I can't help but wonder if a market correction will be in order.

Let's see what happens to inventory this winter.

I think prices were highest in 2006, when we bought, and they started to take a dive shortly after. If you look at the 2006 link I posted, the prices were all mid-high 70's and 80s. We moved farther away from WDW a year after we bought and, in early 2008, we listed our contract for sale (briefly) and the prices were lower than what we had paid in 2006. We decided to keep our contract and even added on (MIL and FIL wanted to use our OKW points each year and pay us to do so). We watched the prices continue to go down or stay down until this spring. I am glad we have all the points we need now (since it's a sellers market)...well, could always use more but we're good with what we have.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I sold BCV for $95 a point in 2005 or 2006.

 

[Nabas]

My guess, and it is only a guess... the resale market will level set somewhere between 10-20% under Disney direct prices.

Interesting. I think what I failed to take into account was the gap between direct and resale prices. Direct prices now start at $130, even for those resorts that expire in less than 29 years.

IMHO, DVC is like real estate; it's a lot about location, location, location. Thus, I can't imagine the large OKW, SSR, and AKL ever for selling for anything close to a 20% discount. Even a 30% discount suggests a price of $91/point. Will people buy at SSR for $91/point if the direct price is $130/point? I suppose it depends on what's happening at the other resorts.

With a 20% discount, that means BCV, BWV, and VWL at $104/point. I can imagine the small BCV supporting that but not the other two. BWV is much larger than BCV while VWL is slowly sinking in relative popularity, now that it looks like all three Monorail Resorts will have their own DVCs. (VWL used to be the only "Magic Kingdom Area" DVC.)

Returning to the question of "has it ever been like this?" In the 2005-2008 period, resale prices were much closer to direct sale prices. Even worse, Disney exercised ROFR on a lot of properties. It seems the ROFR rate is lower today then it was then.

I guess what's the biggest difference is that 2013 has seen a tremendous run-up in prices in a short time. For example, in February it was possible to get BCV for under $70/point and now these are over $90/point even for large contracts.

I've been tracking available inventory since April and, overall, its down about 25%. That doesn't sound like that much. However, that's deceptive because it's way down at some resorts, most notably BCV. Similarly, BLT available inventory is about half what it was in April. BWV inventory is actually up since April.

So, in recent months, we've had a big run-up in prices and drop in available inventory.

 

[Nabas]

I think prices were highest in 2006, when we bought, and they started to take a dive shortly after.

Thanks for the link!

 

[Mickbee]

With a 20% discount, that means BCV, BWV, and VWL at $104/point. I can imagine the small BCV supporting that but not the other two. BWV is much larger than BCV while VWL is slowly sinking in relative popularity, now that it looks like all three Monorail Resorts will have their own DVCs. (VWL used to be the only "Magic Kingdom Area" DVC.)

I'm of the same thought... what makes me wonder is the rate that all size contracts are climbing. No offense to SSR, but I wouldn't have guessed a 200+ contract would be in the mid $80s today. AKL has jumped from the low to mid-$70s in to the mid-$80s too for mid-sized contracts. The small BCVs are pulling in $110+ without hesitation.

From the supply/demand perspective, I think we're seeing a shift to accept choice #2 or 3 resorts in favor of a larger cost savings.

In a post in here a while back someone had an interesting comparison of the old vs newer resorts. They talked abut the impulse purchases and the selling, foreclosing, or simply losing interest. They wen ton to say the older resorts have ridden their course for the most parts and people are retaining their membership causing a smaller pool of the VWLs, BCV, etc.

Hey it's fun to watch... where it stops nobody knows. Place your bets!!!