Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[AstroBlasters]

My SSR sellers bought in 2021 and are selling at a substantial loss (around 25%) from what they they paid.

Maybe they are afraid that if they don't get out now it will go even lower and panic selling, but who knows.

Prices go up and down, i doubt a contract that still has 30 years left is going to keep going down and never bounce back at some points, the price of staying at a Disney resort is only going to go up.

They all end up in the same place… $0

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

My SSR sellers bought in 2021 and are selling at a substantial loss (around 25%) from what they they paid.

Maybe they are afraid that if they don't get out now it will go even lower and panic selling, but who knows.

Prices go up and down, i doubt a contract that still has 30 years left is going to keep going down and never bounce back at some points, the price of staying at a Disney resort is only going to go up.

Without getting into the weeds of real return v nominal return, I do think SSR is more likely to trend down than up after 2042…a lot of people hold it for SAP, and the SAP game is going to be brutal after the crescent lake resorts and BRV leave the system…especially with more and more OKW contracts getting extended out to 2057 via ROFR.

I know a few people truly love SSR, but I think it is more vulnerable to downturns because the people still buying DVC in a recession may want to trade up to VGF or BLT.

 

[Girlstar30]

Without getting into the weeds of real return v nominal return, I do think SSR is more likely to trend down than up after 2042…a lot of people hold it for SAP, and the SAP game is going to be brutal after the crescent lake resorts and BRV leave the system…especially with more and more OKW contracts getting extended out to 2057 via ROFR.

I know a few people truly love SSR, but I think it is more vulnerable to downturns because the people still buying DVC in a recession may want to trade up to VGF or BLT.

I think you're right about that, after 2042 or getting nearer cuz i have thought that I should sell a couple years before

I think it's good for right now because the other resorts are still high, but if they are went down substantially I would think now is my chance to buy something else, but then when it bounces back it would still have appeal, but yes if they keep going with restrictions then I can see it being less desirable as time passes.

 

[Tatebeck]

Without getting into the weeds of real return v nominal return, I do think SSR is more likely to trend down than up after 2042…a lot of people hold it for SAP, and the SAP game is going to be brutal after the crescent lake resorts and BRV leave the system…especially with more and more OKW contracts getting extended out to 2057 via ROFR.

I know a few people truly love SSR, but I think it is more vulnerable to downturns because the people still buying DVC in a recession may want to trade up to VGF or BLT.

Yep, I have been saying this for a while. Direct owners will probably be fine, but post 2019 resale owners better really like staying at SSR lol. I predict SSR SAP usage will get really bad leading up to 2042, get some minor relief right as the 2042 resorts expire, then continue to get worse until SSR itself expires.

If I were to buy a SSR SAP contract now, I would hold steady for a steal of a deal on a loaded contract, use it for 5 to maybe 10 years, then sell it well ahead of 2042. I have at least been keeping one-half of one eye open for a super cheap loaded contract for SSR, CCV, AUL, etc to pour points into my October 3BR GV stay lol.

 

[Girlstar30]

Yep, I have been saying this for a while. Direct owners will probably be fine, but post 2019 resale owners better really like staying at SSR lol. I predict SSR SAP usage will get really bad leading up to 2042, get some minor relief right as the 2042 resorts expire, then continue to get worse until SSR itself expires.

If I were to buy a SSR SAP contract now, I would hold steady for a steal of a deal on a loaded contract, use it for 5 to maybe 10 years, then sell it well ahead of 2042. I have at least been keeping one-half of one eye open for a super cheap loaded contract for SSR, CCV, AUL, etc to pour points into my October 3BR GV stay lol.

I mean if you buy now and use the hell out of it for 18 years, you will have gotten your moneys worth regardless rather quickly, but yes I can see it going down more for the time being possibly.

 

[hhisc16]

Yep, I have been saying this for a while. Direct owners will probably be fine, but post 2019 resale owners better really like staying at SSR lol. I predict SSR SAP usage will get really bad leading up to 2042, get some minor relief right as the 2042 resorts expire, then continue to get worse until SSR itself expires.

If I were to buy a SSR SAP contract now, I would hold steady for a steal of a deal on a loaded contract, use it for 5 to maybe 10 years, then sell it well ahead of 2042. I have at least been keeping one-half of one eye open for a super cheap loaded contract for SSR, CCV, AUL, etc to pour points into my October 3BR GV stay lol.

I feel like 2042 is the first big cliff for 2054+ resale owners.
2055+ will be OKW/AKV, BLT, VGF, PVB, then CCV left for restricted resale owners.

 

[Tatebeck]

I mean if you buy now and use the hell out of it for 18 years, you will have gotten your moneys worth regardless rather quickly, but yes I can see it going down more for the time being possibly.

Right, but for around the same price or a little bit more you can buy into a resort that is SAP+ and get even more years of use, with a better home resort advantage. The only thing SSR has going for it for most buyers is the price and that's it...

SSR 2054
AKV 2057
BLT 2060
AUL 2062
CCV 2068


Out of these SSR would definitely be my last choice. You could even put Poly and VGF in there, but they get further away from the SSR price point and would be in another category as being pretty much SAP++

 

[Girlstar30]

Right, but for around the same price or a little bit more you can buy into a resort that is SAP+ and get even more years of use, with a better home resort advantage. The only thing SSR has going for it for most buyers is the price and that's it...

SSR 2054
AKV 2057
BLT 2060
AUL 2062
CCV 2068


Out of these SSR would definitely be my last choice. You could even put Poly and VGF in there, but they get further away from the SSR price point and would be in another category as being pretty much SAP++

SSR has low maintenance fees. That's a big factor too.

So does BLT and CCV i know and that's why I bought BLT too.

CCV would have been the best value long term. But for me personally, I'm not sure that I would want this many points long term and CCV is my least favorite resort that I've stayed at too thats why SSR was so appealing to me. I think it could very well be a short term play for me (10 years or less)

If direct were to have a really attractive sale like it did for BPK substantially I could see myself offloading the SSR and use that money towards direct, but it think this may be hard after I've gotten use to 1 bedroom stays twice a year

 

[Tatebeck]

SSR has low maintenance fees. That's a big factor too.

So does BLT and CCV i know and that's why I bought BLT too.

CCV would have been the best value long term. But for me personally, I'm not sure that I would want this many points long term and CCV is my least favorite resort that I've stayed at too thats why SSR was so appealing to me. I think it could very well be a short term play for me (10 years or less)

If direct were to have a really attractive sale like it did for BPK substantially I could see myself offloading the SSR and use that money towards direct, but it think this may be hard after I've gotten use to 1 bedroom stays twice a year

One thing a lot of people forget about is that the purchase price and dues are not the only thing that comes into play when using SAP or SAP+. It also matters how you end up using the points.

When using points at a home resort many members looking to maximize value (like those getting SSR for SAP) will book the cheapest view they have, and they can often get it because of the home resort advantage. When using points at 7 months, members often will have to book a more expensive or the most expensive view available. So using SSR as a SAP contract over time will lose that value or savings each time a more expensive room has to be booked. Instead of a lockoff premium it is like a SAP premium. If you on average have to book a view at 7 months that is 1.3 times (random example, not actual figure) as expensive as you would have gotten if you were able to book the cheapest view with home resort advantage, you can in a way figure you lost those 0.3x points, but still paid for them and paid dues on them.

If you buy at a SAP resort for 15% cheaper but then book rooms that are 20% more expensive at 7 months than you would have booked at that home resort, did you really save any money?

 

[Girlstar30]

One thing a lot of people forget about is that the purchase price is not the only thing that comes into play when using SAP or SAP+.

When using points at a home resort many members looking to maximize value (like those getting SSR for SAP) will book the cheapest view they have, and they can often get it because of the home resort advantage. When using points at 7 months, members often will have to book a more expensive or the most expensive view available. So using SSR as a SAP contract over time will lose that value or savings each time a more expensive room has to be booked. Instead of a lockoff premium it is like a SAP premium. If you on average have to book a view at 7 months that is 1.3 times (random example, not actual figure) as expensive as you would have gotten if you were able to book the cheapest view with home resort advantage, you can in a way figure you lost those 0.3x points, but still paid for them and paid dues on them.

If you buy at a SAP resort for 15% cheaper but then book rooms that are 20% more expensive than you would have booked at that home resort, did you really save any money?

This is a very good point for those that want value rooms.

I haven't even booked at 7 months yet so I have no idea how it will go down, but I think my preference for a 1 bedroom with the best views have a good chance at some places!

I think AKV was a good choice for me for home advantage because I was able to get a club level room for a few nights next year at the 10 month mark and that made me happy! if family ever wants to go ill go for a value room for them so they don't have to pay!

I want to stay at PIT and I know that's going to be tough for now. I hope throwing in some waitlists will do the job! Too bad I can't buy a home resort advantage at every resort i like

 

[hhisc16]

SSR has low maintenance fees. That's a big factor too.

So does BLT and CCV i know and that's why I bought BLT too.

CCV would have been the best value long term. But for me personally, I'm not sure that I would want this many points long term and CCV is my least favorite resort that I've stayed at too thats why SSR was so appealing to me. I think it could very well be a short term play for me (10 years or less)

If direct were to have a really attractive sale like it did for BPK substantially I could see myself offloading the SSR and use that money towards direct, but it think this may be hard after I've gotten use to 1 bedroom stays twice a year

I think CCV is the best long term value with a 2042 points chart equivalent at the moment.

 

[Girlstar30]

I think CCV is the best long term value with a 2042 points chart equivalent at the moment.

Agreed for long term

 

[maui22]

One thing a lot of people forget about is that the purchase price and dues are not the only thing that comes into play when using SAP or SAP+. It also matters how you end up using the points.

When using points at a home resort many members looking to maximize value (like those getting SSR for SAP) will book the cheapest view they have, and they can often get it because of the home resort advantage. When using points at 7 months, members often will have to book a more expensive or the most expensive view available. So using SSR as a SAP contract over time will lose that value or savings each time a more expensive room has to be booked. Instead of a lockoff premium it is like a SAP premium. If you on average have to book a view at 7 months that is 1.3 times (random example, not actual figure) as expensive as you would have gotten if you were able to book the cheapest view with home resort advantage, you can in a way figure you lost those 0.3x points, but still paid for them and paid dues on them.

If you buy at a SAP resort for 15% cheaper but then book rooms that are 20% more expensive at 7 months than you would have booked at that home resort, did you really save any money?

The ability to book the lower point chart rooms is why we have a hard time selling our BLT contracts. BLT SV (resort view now) is a bargain. Closest walk to MK for reasonable points.

I don't mind when booking BCV/BWV or the older point chart resorts. However, I cringe every time I compare BLT SV to PVB, VGF, and RIV. After 2042, I think BCV and BWV replacements should break the record for highest point charts.

 

[Girlstar30]

The ability to book the lower point chart rooms is why we have a hard time selling our BLT contracts. BLT SV (resort view now) is a bargain. Closest walk to MK for reasonable points.

I don't mind when booking BCV/BWV or the older point chart resorts. However, I cringe every time I compare BLT SV to PVB, VGF, and RIV. After 2042, I think BCV and BWV replacements should break the record for highest point charts.

PIT Point chart is so crazy high

 

[hhisc16]

The ability to book the lower point chart rooms is why we have a hard time selling our BLT contracts. BLT SV (resort view now) is a bargain. Closest walk to MK for reasonable points.

I don't mind when booking BCV/BWV or the older point chart resorts. However, I cringe every time I compare BLT SV to PVB, VGF, and RIV. After 2042, I think BCV and BWV replacements should break the record for highest point charts.

I notice the standard/resort view at blt is typically similar points as ccv/brv. Basically a 2042 points chart for a monorail resort!

 

[atthebeachclub]

I notice the standard/resort view at blt is typically similar points as ccv/brv. Basically a 2042 points chart for a monorail resort!

I researched point charts extensively before choosing BLT as my second location. This was a big part of my choice!

 

[Tatebeck]

Yeah the resort view rooms at both BLT and RIV aren't that bad at all. Those resorts get put in with the "high point chart" resorts because of the TPV and Preferred views. But the Resort views are actually pretty decent if you have the home resort advantage to get them. When you compare the Resort views to the average point cost of some of the other newer DVC resorts like VGF and Poly with the actual high point charts, they seem like a steal at times!

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah the resort view rooms at both BLT and RIV aren't that bad at all. Those resorts get put in with the "high point chart" resorts because of the TPV and Preferred views. But the Resort views are actually pretty decent if you have the home resort advantage to get them. When you compare the Resort views to the average point cost of some of the other newer DVC resorts like VGF and Poly with the actual high point charts, they seem like a steal at times!

When we decided that RIV was tops for us, we did look at it this way. We owned BWV but had trouble getting Resort View rooms and most often were in Preferred....since that was what we were getting, we used that point chart to RIV Resort view and felt that the difference was not that bad....

So, when you take in to consideration that owning at a place like RIV gets you the best chance for Resort View, especially when it comes to the larger rooms when point differences add up, its well worth it to own there!

 

[Brian rhymes with dyin]

Super anecdotally here but there has been, to me, based on the resorts I'm watching, a notable uptick in three to five star "Deal Score" listings on DVCForLess in the last week or so. It feels too soon for things to have accelerated as a reaction to economic uncertainty but it's caught my eye to say the least.

 

[Girlstar30]

Super anecdotally here but there has been, to me, based on the resorts I'm watching, a notable uptick in three to five star "Deal Score" listings on DVCForLess in the last week or so. It feels too soon for things to accelerate as a reaction to economic uncertainty but it's caught my eye to say the least.

I've noticed this too and lower prices per point