Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[disneylandtour]

There are a number of interesting factors :-

• There was the newspaper report about Disney being too expensive for families. This is probably what spawned more discounts than usual - dining, room sales and the 3 day ticket. It enables Disney to attract people without having to do a formal price reduction, and they can limit/increase availability dynamically based on their booking numbers etc.
• There are a large number of Federal employees who are either already RIF’d or looking down the barrel. That is going to affect a lot of families.
• Foreigners are going to be thinking twice about coming to America - Trump is not popular in Canada with his threats of invasion. Others who don’t support him don’t want to be turned away at immigration because of what they have posted on social media.
• Tariffs have done a right number on the stock market. Any retirees are going to be concerned about their expenses after a drop, and social security is looking rocky.
• Tariffs are going to make prices of most goods go up. That is going to affect people’s essentials. But also affect how much they want to spend. Do you delay buying a new car that may be 20% more expensive and put that into vacations?
• Tariffs will probably affect merchandise most at Disney- very little of it is going to be manufactured in the usa.

My sense is that most people will delay buying new cars until the administration and tariffs changes--or simply, buy used, if affordable. But many other tariff price hikes are unavoidable. Also a lot of people just lost thousands and thousands in the stock market sell off, which will deeply hurt discretionary spending, which is exactly what DVC is. I mentioned this a month or so ago in this thread...but..historically...

(1) DVD is late to react to market conditions. So expect a few months before you see how DVD pivots.

(2) DVD tends to protect new front list offerings from massive discounts, while offering discounts on older properties. So maybe expect another set of good deals on AKV (where there is ROFR activity) but not Poly, at least not yet.

(3) The GFV fire sale came about a year before Poly Tower went on sale. I'd expect the same pattern here. Poly will have a decent sale about a year before LSL goes on sale. So sale in mid/late 2026 before LSL in late 2027.

(4) The X factor here is what happens if Poly sales nose dives, which I see as likely. Current incentives start at a lousy eight bucks. DVD may start to nudge this up a little, but not enough to take the premium sheen off the Poly product before mid/late 2026.

(5) There's a lot of GFV ROFRs right now. I have no idea what's up with that. Those ROFRs probably aren't going to sell a lot at $265pp, so maybe something is up there.

(6) And at some point DVD is going to want to finally sell out Aulani. They've been trying to sell that place for over a dozen years. I have no idea why we haven't seen a big sale there post-pandemic. Maybe the cash room sales are simply very good year round (which is possible), which means there's not reason to discount heavily. But the basic timeshare model is to build, sell everything, self-support with MF, and then move on to a new property, limiting financial exposure. But this is not how Aulani has worked.

 

[Brian Noble]

more discounts than usual

I'm not sure these discounts are all that unusual. They are compared to the first few revenge-travel years, but comparing to pre-pandemic, they feel more-or-less ordinary.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm not sure these discounts are all that unusual. They are compared to the first few revenge-travel years, but comparing to pre-pandemic, they feel more-or-less ordinary.

The discounts are similar to last year. Matter of fact, they didn’t bring back the 4 days, 4 park and only the 3 day, 3 park.

But did do 50% off kids tickets. So, I agree they are pretty typical of what have been on and off over the years.

 

[Sandisw]

Just a reminder,,, let’s not get into talk that can be seen as political…facts…there are new tariffs in place and now that might impact are okay…sharing opinions about it beyond that are not.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The other way tariffs and resulting economic consequences could impact DVC sales is if Disney decides not to go through with new park expansions because costs of construction materials and labor rises. I think LSL is far enough along they complete it no matter what, but will as many people be excited to add to their memberships if nothing new is on the horizon for 5-10 years or, worst case, if construction gets started in place of Rivers of America but then just stays as a giant dirt pit for years (sort of like Epcot)?

Then again, I personally would be more interested in owning at AKV if Dinoland survives intact and I bet others would say that about MK projects as well.

@Sandisw — I think this falls within the guidelines but let me know if I misunderstood!

 

[Cfabar1]

Then again, I personally would be more interested in owning at AKV if Dinoland survives intact and I bet others would say that about MK projects as well.

I would not be surprised if the "beyond thunder mountain" is delayed. I could also imagine a situation where everything at Dinoland happens (given how far along it is already), but shockingly Dinosaur sticks around as is a little longer.

LSL who knows... think about some of those resorts that Disney kept incomplete forever...

 

[PolyRob]

The other way tariffs and resulting economic consequences could impact DVC sales is if Disney decides not to go through with new park expansions because costs of construction materials and labor rises. I think LSL is far enough along they complete it no matter what, but will as many people be excited to add to their memberships if nothing new is on the horizon for 5-10 years or, worst case, if construction gets started in place of Rivers of America but then just stays as a giant dirt pit for years (sort of like Epcot)?

Then again, I personally would be more interested in owning at AKV if Dinoland survives intact and I bet others would say that about MK projects as well.

@Sandisw — I think this falls within the guidelines but let me know if I misunderstood!

Part of Dinoland is already flattened so I do think WDW will continue with Tropical Americas. It will just suffer severe budget cuts like the Epcot transformation in 2020. Maybe the carousel is off the shelf like Primeval Whirl and Dinosaur no longer gets a unique storyline, but an exact copy of DL since it would probably be cheaper to copy?

I agree that Rivers of America, Villains, and Monster's Inc could just be stopped. Those areas haven't been touched yet. Let's see what happens with Grand Avenue closures this summer.

As far as LL, the Pop "Legendary Years" sat unfinished for years after 9/11. IDK that it has to be completed based on the current pictures, but IDK how bad it's going to get. (https://www.popcenturysite.com/content/pop-century-legendary-years-art-animation/)

 

[atthebeachclub]

I would not be surprised if the "beyond thunder mountain" is delayed. I could also imagine a situation where everything at Dinoland happens (given how far along it is already), but shockingly Dinosaur sticks around as is a little longer.

LSL who knows... think about some of those resorts that Disney kept incomplete forever...

I sure hope things don’t get delayed. That would be sad. Especially since Universal’s new park looks so immersive and is likely to be a big hit. I want Disney and Universal going head to head, offering consumers great options!

 

[PolyRob]

I sure hope things don’t get delayed. That would be sad. Especially since Universal’s new park looks so immersive and is likely to be a big hit. I want Disney and Universal going head to head, offering consumers great options!

I think Uni is sweating a bit right now with Epic too. I saw this new advertising strategy on social media yesterday:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908604744177721531

(@Sandisw I am sorry if this is not allowed and please remove it if it should not be posted)

 

[atthebeachclub]

I think Uni is sweating a bit right now with Epic too. I saw this new advertising strategy on social media yesterday:

View attachment 954975

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908604744177721531

(@Sandisw I am sorry if this is not allowed and please remove it if it should not be posted)

Oh wow! Addressing things head on. I wonder if they are worried? They have a lot of positive press right now.

 

[Girlstar30]

I can't wait to go to epic it looks so awesome!

Well i just did my weekend homework and read the Baylake Tower public offering statement and I am officially terrified.

Did not know that Disney can remove themselves completely from the resort If they wanted to and we would just be the Baylake Tower hotel with a different name, don't remember what it was with no Disney affiliation. I know the likelihood is low, but still an uncomfortable prospect.

In another thread we were talking about if members should get tiered benefits. According to my reading, Home Resort priority only has to be guaranteed for one month out, not four months.

So those that were wondering, Disney can do a tiered benefit where for example home resort members could book four months earlier and non home resort members with lots of points could perhaps book 2 months earlier than the rest of us if they wanted to with no issue. The more you know

 

[maui22]

I sure hope things don’t get delayed. That would be sad. Especially since Universal’s new park looks so immersive and is likely to be a big hit. I want Disney and Universal going head to head, offering consumers great options!

There used to be a saying when companies competed with park modifications it was good for customers, but terrible for the shareholders. I don’t know if it still applies though.

 

[Cfabar1]

While I could imagine Disney's Old Key West resort becoming the Old Key West resort as a remote possibility, I think it is just about impossible that Bay Lake Tower loses the affiliation with Disney....

 

[davidhr]

Oh wow! Addressing things head on. I wonder if they are worried? They have a lot of positive press right now.

I don’t think there’s a single company not worried about the short term right now. Even if the tariffs don’t affect them directly, the consumer confidence took a massive dive in March and that affects absolutely everything.

 

[Girlstar30]

While I could imagine Disney's Old Key West resort becoming the Old Key West resort as a remote possibility, I think it is just about impossible that Bay Lake Tower loses the affiliation with Disney....

I agree, it would be expensive and unnecessary for them to get rid of all the Disney there

 

[samsp99]

My sense is that most people will delay buying new cars until the administration and tariffs changes--or simply, buy used, if affordable. But many other tariff price hikes are unavoidable. Also a lot of people just lost thousands and thousands in the stock market sell off, which will deeply hurt discretionary spending, which is exactly what DVC is. I mentioned this a month or so ago in this thread...but..historically...

(1) DVD is late to react to market conditions. So expect a few months before you see how DVD pivots.

(2) DVD tends to protect new front list offerings from massive discounts, while offering discounts on older properties. So maybe expect another set of good deals on AKV (where there is ROFR activity) but not Poly, at least not yet.

(3) The GFV fire sale came about a year before Poly Tower went on sale. I'd expect the same pattern here. Poly will have a decent sale about a year before LSL goes on sale. So sale in mid/late 2026 before LSL in late 2027.

(4) The X factor here is what happens if Poly sales nose dives, which I see as likely. Current incentives start at a lousy eight bucks. DVD may start to nudge this up a little, but not enough to take the premium sheen off the Poly product before mid/late 2026.

(5) There's a lot of GFV ROFRs right now. I have no idea what's up with that. Those ROFRs probably aren't going to sell a lot at $265pp, so maybe something is up there.

(6) And at some point DVD is going to want to finally sell out Aulani. They've been trying to sell that place for over a dozen years. I have no idea why we haven't seen a big sale there post-pandemic. Maybe the cash room sales are simply very good year round (which is possible), which means there's not reason to discount heavily. But the basic timeshare model is to build, sell everything, self-support with MF, and then move on to a new property, limiting financial exposure. But this is not how Aulani has worked.

They probably won’t build another Hawaii property, so are happy with the cash rentals for Aulani. There was a firesale of resale listings which may have affected sales there -not sure how much direct benefits affect aulani sales - it depends on the overlap with florida customers.

 

[Brian Noble]

Well i just did my weekend homework and read the Baylake Tower public offering statement and I am officially terrified.

Breathe. Just breathe.

Yes, it can happen. Lots of things can happen. A meteor could hit the tower and completely destroy it. They are about as likely.

 

[Sandisw]

I can't wait to go to epic it looks so awesome!

Well i just did my weekend homework and read the Baylake Tower public offering statement and I am officially terrified.

Did not know that Disney can remove themselves completely from the resort If they wanted to and we would just be the Baylake Tower hotel with a different name, don't remember what it was with no Disney affiliation. I know the likelihood is low, but still an uncomfortable prospect.

In another thread we were talking about if members should get tiered benefits. According to my reading, Home Resort priority only has to be guaranteed for one month out, not four months.

So those that were wondering, Disney can do a tiered benefit where for example home resort members could book four months earlier and non home resort members with lots of points could perhaps book 2 months earlier than the rest of us if they wanted to with no issue. The more you know

The home resort booking period has to be the same for all owners. So, yes, they can shorten it, and then all owners with points that trade via BVTC can have access to that resort.

They can even make each resort a different home resort window. Some could be one month and others longer.

But the rules for trading are based on the resort and not individuals. You have to read the DVC resort agreement for that. Trading is allowed once the home resort period is over.

I do not see them giving home resort owners a shorter window for giving non resort owners access to

As I said, BVTC has a lot of ways to in change trading rules, but I don’t read in any of the DVC resort agreements that would allow for a different trading window based on number of points.

So, they can charge a fee, and they can make a new trading chart, but I see nothing in an DVC resort agreement that allows an owner who has eligible points to be given a different window based on how many points they own.

The one month requirement is the minimum based on FL law…we enjoy 4 months and I don’t see how it benefits DVD to sell with a shorter one.

I can see them making it larger down the line for restricted resorts…to give those owners more time…but shortening doesn’t make logical sense, even assuming they could find a way to support with the DVC resort agreement for each resort.

 

[bakerworld]

I think members like us, who are deciding to hold onto our memberships are going to allow DVC to maintain their pricing. I think the existing base of DVC owners maintaining their dues will continue to support the current pricing. I don't think the default factor is there like in '07-'09. I think the new builds like Poly Towers and Lakeshore are small enough to support the current point price, unlike Aulani. I think the availability at Aulani, and the unsold points, reflect people like us who feel the resort is too far and too expensive to visit.

So that's a lot of 'I think' because I'm not a financial person but I've talked to people who bought into DVC in the '90's and they've passed down their membership contracts to their progeny. Our kids who originally told us they didn't want to be saddled with DVC have changed their minds when the cost of vacations have reduced them to drivable VRBO's and camping. For years our kids have had no problem using DVC as a resort only vacation. Our son still has 2 days on a '13 NE park ticket and our girls will either not go to the parks or purchase a 1DPH. This makes me think that the real cost decrease will be reflected in park prices/ticket deals.

 

[Girlstar30]

Breathe. Just breathe.

Yes, it can happen. Lots of things can happen. A meteor could hit the tower and completely destroy it. They are about as likely.

I read that I would be responsible for that as well