Crystal Ball: 20 Years From Now

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Which DVC resorts do you think will be easiest to sell in 20 years?

 

[DVChris]

I would guess CCV and DLT (even with restrictions because I think people would be fine to only use at DLT).

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

VGF and PVB - not restricted like RIV, on monorail, walk to MK, plenty of years remaining, top restaurants

 

[Bjaiken77]

Well, it’s likely one that’s going to have good length left after 20 years. That’ll be VGF, CCV, and PVB. BLT may even hang in there because of location. Resale restrictions or not, I think RIV will be just fine.

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, so much will happen that I think it will be similar to today, which includes RIV.

Near park resorts will sell better than the big 3 of SSR, OKW, and AKV.

 

[DisDad-]

In 20 years the most popular resorts will be BCVs and the BWVs when the resorts expire and the points are resold. These will be a major profits for Disney.

 

[bbeagle]

The OSMB, the BBR and the HR will be the hottest sellers.

The OSMB (Outer Space Moon Base) which opened in 2040 - which allows guests to feel 0 gravity in their rooms, and moon-level gravity (1/6th of earth) on the 'outside' of the hotel (still inside the property's bubble) is a unique aspect of this property.

The BBR (Boy Band Resort) which opened in 2027, and the HR (Heavenly resort) which opened in 2038 - the only resort INSIDE a park - it floats above the Epcot World Showcase Lagoon - will also be extremely popular.

Flying shuttle cars to/from every resort will obsolete the monorail.

 

[RoseGold]

I think BLT is in a very sweet spot for resale 20 years from now. Right after BLT was built, the charts start escalating. BLT's chart was high at the time, but looks retro already compared to Poly/VGF/RIV. I think the next build will exceed VGF. In 20 years, the BLT chart will do the math for you. It will be the new BC/BW. I can also see Contemporary evolving over time and becoming even fancier. Depends on if Disney plans to chase that Waldorf customer, which so far they have shown they don't.

Oh, and there's always good old fashioned SSR. So much of it gets traded all the time, no big deal to buy and sell.

I also think that it will be really easy to sell late stage BC/BW starter contracts in like 15 years. I think those are going to hold until the bitter end. For many, it's easier to stomach buying 5 years of points than a 50 year albatross. That will only be more true as costs and points expand and the 2042 chart and prime location to Marvel stuff looks better and better.

 

[Vulnox]

Something to keep in mind when naming resorts because they won't have restrictions is that in 20 years, many will start having restrictions of a different type. Any 2042 resorts will likely have any new contract issuance set with the same restrictions as RIV, which also removes them from being traded into from existing resale contracts. If Disney continues down the road of RIV like restrictions, the best resorts will be those with easy access to parks because people will place greater emphasis on buying resorts that have park access since they may not be able to trade to one that does.

So RIV, BLT, maybe BCV/BWV depending what the reissue looks like, etc.

I think the ones that will suffer most in 20 years are those that see themselves further locked out of trading because other resorts are moving to their own restrictions. AKV may go from being a fairly easy trade to struggling a bit more, I think some of the unique features of AKV may help though. Boulder Ridge even with renovation may suffer. Sites like that.

I think one thing that may change the math significantly will be the future of transportation. If the rumors of expanding the Skyliner ever come true, any resorts that find themselves on it or already are on it may increase in attractiveness.

 

[prouddaddycdn]

I think it depend on how much hotel rooms are going for in 20 years. Poly is pretty much one of the most expensive hotel rooms you can book throughout the year (on average) so if it remains a popular (and expensive) choice, DVC at Poly will continue to look like a bargain.

 

[bbeagle]

I think one thing that may change the math significantly will be the future of transportation. If the rumors of expanding the Skyliner ever come true, any resorts that find themselves on it or already are on it may increase in attractiveness.

Exactly. If the AKV gets new transportation, it will become much more coveted. Right now, that's not a resort I would choose to stay at for more than a few days because of only bus transportation.

 

[DL1WDW2]

Have there been SkyLiner Rumors recently?
I thought they announced never again SkyLiner at the DVC Annual Meeting 2 years ago.
Never say never?

 

[RoseGold]

Have there been SkyLiner Rumors recently?
I thought they announced never again SkyLiner at the DVC Annual Meeting 2 years ago.
Never say never?

Not really DVC's decision. Disney has been very tightlipped about this. But buses have been really hard to staff, and Skyliner has got to be looking better. Just based on the map and that Disney will resist connecting DS, I would guess Blizzard Beach/Coronado go next. There's definitely room for a moderate location resort next to Coronado for DVC's Coronado2.

 

[Great3]

Resale restrictions aren't going to matter as much in 20 years.. because the O14 will be down to O8. As others have said, once it becomes harder to book into other resorts, the ones people like will be easier to resale. My guess will be BLT, with it's lower point charts and reasonable number of years left before expiration.

Great3

 

[sethschroeder]

CCV

Studios are hard there already, then you will add in it will be harder to get studios elsewhere as well when all the 2042 resorts leave. You are losing all the Epcot resorts.

I have posted this before but there is a large shift of rooms away from MK/Epcot to Bus only resorts.

You are losing a significant percentage of bookable rooms in the most sought after location within DVC (Epcot/MK area).

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)


There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

 

[sethschroeder]

VGF, POLY, RIV, BLT, DLT

Those are going to be easier to sell because they have "easy to get" Studios at the 11 month mark. In 20 years resale will be much more "buy where you want to stay" focused as all those original resorts will be falling off left and right.

You will have:

• Shorter contracts for things like SSR (12 years left) means that you are selling to someone who knows they will never sell and never get money back within basically a decade
• Limited trade options as you eliminate Epcot (which plenty of people want to stay next to) so really what benefit is there to staying at other resorts if your only options are resorts next to MK, why not just get the resort you want at MK to start with and book it

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Studios are hard there already, then you will add in it will be harder to get studios elsewhere as well when all the 2042 resorts leave. You are losing all the Epcot resorts.

I have posted this before but there is a large shift of rooms away from MK/Epcot to Bus only resorts.

Will there be Skyliner expansion?

 

[Leight19]

I always joke with family that eventually transportation won’t matter. My thought is full self driving cars is a matter of when not if. I feel like this would have major impact on transport at parks and preference for resorts. Maybe buses run much more frequently or guests start having their cars pick them up and drop them off without the worry or finding parking. In this world I predict the resort themeing takes off and animal kingdom lodge becomes number one!

 

[sethschroeder]

Will there be Skyliner expansion?

The original leak from Doppelmayr was it was going to Disney Springs next. Others made up the rumor with nothing actually leaked that it would go to Coronado Springs to AK next.

I think there will be an expansion as soon as the Skyliner starts operating without larger issues and they feel they can start running it more often through higher winds/storms like its designed.

I don't think Skyliner expansion will impact any current DVC value other than possibly Riviera but even there if the expansion is to Disney Springs does it really make that big of a difference? With AKV I think it could go either way because getting to AK is already quick but the drawback is getting to the other parks which would be a long ride with multiple stations from AKV.

 

[Redheadprincess]

20 years ago there were only 5 DVC resorts, with only 3 being on WDW property, 4th was about to open. So who knows what 20 years will look like. We know many resorts deeds end in 20 years and Disney is going to have their hands full figuring out what to do with them. It is our speculation how Disney will handle all that. It will be interesting to see how things evolve in the next 2 decades.