Thanks for the always informative behind-the-scenes perspective. I know you mentioned "warning signals" about several things, do you think (in your opinion obviously) that Disney is so far under the demand they expected that they may close again? Or are they still making enough to get by and weather this storm?
Also, I might add that if they are truly desperate for visitors they could lift block-out dates to get more blocked APs to visit...
I wouldn't say that the situation is dire enough to warrant considering re-closing the parks. At this point, it seems that the only reason the parks would close again would be for public health reasons. Attendance-wise, they still have some backstops left, and I'd argue that they could see improvements to onsite occupancy levels (cash-side) if they adjusted their rates to be more competitive with what; available elsewhere at the moment, so I *personally* think that if another closure were to happen it would be because of COVID-19 getting out of control (more so than it already is/was). For those wondering, WDW (not DL necessarily) appears to be using statewide COVID-19 data (not just Central Florida) and specifically looking at the death count and ICU bed availability. Again, who knows where the fall and winter will bring us? As always, anything is possible.
Oh, one more thing,
@andyman8 do you have any insights to the amount of APs who have canceled so far? Is Disney happy about it, upset about it, or it's exactly as they expected? It seems like a LOT of APs canceled their passes so far and I presume more will as the deadline approaches.
I don't know about AP cancellations. Much like attendance figures at the moment, Disney is keeping that very, very close to the vest.
Makes me wonder, if they need people in the parks, why still limit APs to a rolling 3 days? I'd go a lot more often if it was higher. But I have 3 days saved for HS in Sept for when friends are coming into town
I think one thing us AP holders don't like to think about is that we're a long-term investment for Disney. The way the profit model for APs work is that you essentially get a large sum of money at the start, make some money on incidental expenses (merchandise, dining, etc..), and then incentivize a renewal to restart the cycle. The key to this profit model is to raise the base price of everything in the model each year (at a rate that outpaces inflation of course), so that you essentially force a single Guest to spend more money each year even if they're buying literally the same stuff (and therefore the production costs are relatively even). The more times the cycle repeats, the more money you make on the Guest. Many are shocked to find out (and Disney will tell you this) that daily guest spending levels are drastically higher amongst resort guests, DVC members, and even most multi-day ticketholders. As a result, they can't really make money if the park is full of just AP holders. That is hugely exacerbated by the fact that the whole profit model for APs has been thrown into chaos by these 4 (or now 5) month extensions. From Disney's perspective that means, at least another 4-5 months of no revenue from AP renewals. Under normal circumstances, that might not be a huge deal and they they may be willing to take a loss and let as many APs in as is responsible and wait it out until some sense of normalcy returns (a little money is better than no money), but given the losses they've just suffered, they need money in the bank. My guess is that they'll continue dropping tidbits of AP availability until they can find a happy medium. I'd also say that, on weekdays, AP availability is decent (except at DHS) at the moment, and as we've discussed, there's more concern over weekday attendance in the parks at the moment.
This is great information, thank you. As far as adding more things when they can afford to, it's sort of chicken and egg. Many aren't going because the lack of fireworks, parades, M&Gs, dining... but those things can't restart until things are safer and more profitable. Tough spot to be in to say the least. I can see September being extremely low but hopefully October-December will surprise them. Especially if we can make headway on the virus.
While I certainly think there are some (many folks here) who have been dissuaded by the absence of certain experiences, I think the majority of causal Guests likely are wary of trip because of the current COVID-19 situation in Florida. The hope is obviously that we start to see a more sustained and significant downward trend in cases nationwide, but even that's not the answer to everything. I have one Disney friend who mentioned a concern over what happens if things actually do start to improve significantly in other parts of country to the point where offices start bringing people back in. Unless the post-FL vacation quarantine requirements are dropped, suddenly those quarantine requirements have a lot more ramifications if someone's 5 day WDW vacation now has to be a 19 day vacation from work. I personally don't think that's a strong likelihood (as we head into the fall, I wouldn't be surprised to see things in Florida get better but things in the Northeast get worse), but a lot of what's going on at WDW is scenario planning: if A happens then we do B. If C happens, then we do D. They've been doing this basically since the start of the closure -- now, it's just about operational adjustments rather than reopening timelines. At the moment, the consensus seems to be that there is a lot of uncertainty about where things will be even in a month, let alone three, so they seem to just want to hold things steady, try to gin up attendance in increments (more AP spots trickle out, more room discounts, etc...), and get to the other side of September when not only things hopefully are in a better place but there also on the other side of the 2020 fiscal year.
I know this is wild thinking, but is there any chance the whole BC/BWV thing has anything to do with Ratatouille?
The International Gateway is a straight shot to the France pavilion, so maybe they are wanting to control those crowds at IG, so that there isn't a social distance unfriendly swarm toward RAT?
Unfortunately, I'm not quire sure Disney even knows when Ratatouille will open.