Crowds summer

[grits98]

What have crowds been like this summer so far?

Overall, tourism in the U.S. has taken a significant down-turn this summer, so I'm sure that's reflected in the Disney crowds as well.

 

[lentesta]

Overall, tourism in the U.S. has taken a significant down-turn this summer, so I'm sure that's reflected in the Disney crowds as well.

I was on Bloomberg last week and prepared some notes around this. Orlando is actually a bright spot in an otherwise bleak US tourism market.

What Did Tourism Look Like In April / May / June?​

TL;DR: Demand remained strong in April, May, June for Disney & Universal

• April tax revenue got a slight YoY bump for Easter (was in Q1 in 2024)
• May’s Central Florida tourist tax income set record
  • Officials credited opening of Universal’s Epic Universe (May 22)
  • And Epic Universe park is off to a solid start
• June’s hotel bookings were up, bucking nationwide trend
• Cruise line occupancy remains very strong: 90%+ for new ships
  
  
• Orange County (Florida) Tourist Tax Revenue (website)
  • April 2025 was up 9.3% vs 2024
  • May 2025 was up 5.7% vs 2024
    • Highest May collection ever, thanks to Epic Universe
    • Mostly through price increases (4.7% average daily rate increase)
    • Small increase (0.6%) in occupancy
      
  • June 2025 We don’t have June numbers yet but:
    • STR says Orlando demand increased
    • I think that the May 22 opening of Epic carried over a bit into June.
      
  • Trends
    • Demand for short-term rentals (12%) is increasing faster than hotel occupancy (May)
      
• Port Canaveral (Florida) Cruise Traffic (website)

• Overseas Visitors (from Int’l Trade Admin gov’t website)
  • Florida is the #2-most visited state after NY
  • April
    • Overseas: -0.2%
    • Canada: -20.5% at 1.4MM
    • Mexico: +17.0% at 1.5MM
  • May
    • Overseas: -0.8%
    • Canada: N/A
    • Mexico: N/A
  • June
    • Overseas: -1.2%
    • Canada: N/A
    • Mexico: N/A

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

• The posted wait times seem to be less over-inflated than in past years. We haven't quantified this yet, so it's more of a hypothesis.

I've been noticing the same trend. For the past 25 years or more we've used those inflated wait times to our advantage, especially during the last few hours of operation each day.

On the headliners, we could almost always count on the posted wait being about 4x the actual wait. Now it seems that the posted times are only about 2x the actual waits near the end of the evening.

We'll be there on Saturday to put this theory to the test.

 

[RivShore]

Around April of this year, Disney reduced the number of LL guests to standby guests it pulls at the merge point

Wait, so Disney is actually doing stuff to improve the guest experience and not charging more for it? Impossible many would say here!

 

[Disnsyncey]

oooo back in the FP days, it was 70ish% FP to 30ish% Standby, I wonder what it is now?

 

[RivShore]

Overseas Visitors (from Int’l Trade Admin gov’t website)

• Florida is the #2-most visited state after NY
• April
  • Overseas: -0.2%
  • Canada: -20.5% at 1.4MM
  • Mexico: +17.0% at 1.5MM
• May
  • Overseas: -0.8%
  • Canada: N/A
  • Mexico: N/A
• June
  • Overseas: -1.2%
  • Canada: N/A
  • Mexico: N/A

Thanks for this data Len! I was actually looking for passenger data to see if it was true that it was down significantly, especially international, as a few on this thread have said, and nothing has been reported beyond April it seems. And there was certainly a downturn with the tariff chaos.

Listening to airline CEO's on CNBC the last few weeks, all said April and May really took a dip (tariff chaos) but since then it has moved up to be flat with last year, with international being a bright spot. I think the "no one wants to come to the US anymore" theme has been greatly exaggerated.

 

[Brian Noble]

Orlando is actually a bright spot in an otherwise bleak US tourism market.

I’m at Cedar Point (in line for Valravn) as I type. It is hotter than blazes. But it is also dead. D E A D dead. Steel vengeance is listed at 30. This is probably 15-20. I don’t think TT2 is running so *maybe* everyone is in line for Siren’s Curse (the new hotness)….but I doubt it.

 

[Brian Noble]

(And I think they are taking a train off of Raptor. At 6 pm. In July.)

 

[lentesta]

Wait, so Disney is actually doing stuff to improve the guest experience and not charging more for it? Impossible many would say here!

I told some folks inside Disney that this would probably be one of the biggest operations research success stories of the year. But talking about it publicly would re-open the conversation about DAS and charging for Lightning Lane, so they're never going to acknowledge it.

 

[lentesta]

I’m at Cedar Point (in line for Valravn) as I type. It is hotter than blazes. But it is also dead. D E A D dead. Steel vengeance is listed at 30. This is probably 15-20. I don’t think TT2 is running so *maybe* everyone is in line for Siren’s Curse (the new hotness)….but I doubt it.

Wear sunscreen. Stay hydrated.

oooo back in the FP days, it was 70ish% FP to 30ish% Standby, I wonder what it is now?

Yep - the default ratio used to be in that range - 70% to 80% of the ride's capacity was Fastpass. At 80% allocation that's a 4:1 ratio to Standby.

Prior to April, the default LL:Standby ratio was also 4:1. We think it's closer to 1:1 since then. It can go higher, but that seems to be the new default. It's a slight increase in wait times for LL guests, and a decent few minutes reduction in line for standby guests, at each attraction.

 

[Brian Noble]

Wear sunscreen

"Porcelain is pretty, tans are temporary, and cancer kills."
---My ex, to our kids. She was not wrong.

Also: Siren's Curse is a darn good ride. It was enhanced by the nine year old next to me. “My dad says I can swear but only on a roller coaster.”

Reader, he did. Continuously. It was the cutest darn thing ever. When I told my son this, he simply responded; "Good parenting."

 

[byurick]

I’m at Cedar Point (in line for Valravn) as I type. It is hotter than blazes. But it is also dead. D E A D dead. Steel vengeance is listed at 30. This is probably 15-20. I don’t think TT2 is running so *maybe* everyone is in line for Siren’s Curse (the new hotness)….but I doubt it.

Interesting, my wife's cousin and her family were just there a few weeks ago. I asked how it was and she seemed to think it was just as crowded as normal (they go every year). Obviously all of this is anecdotal but just wanted to post for comparison.

 

[lovethattink]

I’ve been going to a park every Tuesday. The crowds haven’t been bad at all. Only one of the Tuesdays was the parking lot crowded. That was a a preview day for TT, and we went to Epcot.

The pathways have been nice. I don’t remember any bottlenecks in any of the parks at the usual bottleneck places.

I have a pixie pass, so I am blocked out holidays and weekends.

 

[Brian Noble]

Interesting, my wife's cousin and her family were just there a few weeks ago. I asked how it was and she seemed to think it was just as crowded as normal (they go every year). Obviously all of this is anecdotal but just wanted to post for comparison.

The midways were not empty at all, but the ride lines were lighter than I expected. Part of that might be that there are finally enough headeliners to soak up the "normal" crowd? Siren's Curse and Maverick were both pulling 45-60 most of the time I was there, with TT2, Millennium, and Steel Vengeance not far behind.