Crowds are crazy right now!

[BuckeyeBama]

again, it isn't opinion.

an opinion is formed without regard to facts or knowledge. Both sites are using facts, and knowledge of historical trend, it is more then opinion, it is prediction.

I am talking about your opinion as to which site is better.

 

[DividedSky]

It doesn't matter - they have arrived at their conclusions, you have arrived at yours. Neither has empiracal evidence to prove that one is better than another over a period of time.

this is wrong. I do have empirical evidence. that is what reported wait times provided. sitting at home, you can gain empirical evidence looking at reported wait times, and compare it to what was predicted.

One sight is using the benefit of empirical evidence to improve. the other might be as well, but it isn't something they are sharing

 

[DividedSky]

I am talking about your opinion as to which site is better.

I never said which site was better, I am talking about which crowd predictor is better, and i am using empirical evidence.

comparing the sites is apples and oranges, and that is opinion. a font can make one person claim a site is better.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I never said which site was better, I am talking about which crowd predictor is better, and i am using empirical evidence.

Yeah, and you are smarter than anyone who cares to disagree with you. We all understand. Thank you.

 

[LilyWDW]

Both sites use Forecasting Models. This means they are using information from the past to predict the future. I have studied Forecasting Models. I have USED Forecasting Models. Guess what? They will never be 100% but you can reduce the error value in many ways.

Lately, it seems that the Model being used by Touring Plans has been having issues when there are new variables added in. Things that were not something that had to be dealt with in the old data, but IS something that could cause a change. These items have, over the past year or two years, has thrown off the predictions quite a bit at times. This analysis is based off of following both Touring Plans (I have a subscription and have had once since 2009) and EasyWDW. Touring Plans had been having an issue where they were widely off. The margin of error was quite large at time. EasyWDW also isn't always right, but their margin of error has appeared to be smaller.

That is why I have gotten to the point of supporting EasyWDW.

 

[DividedSky]

EasyWDW also isn't always right, but their margin of error has appeared to be smaller.

That is why I have gotten to the point of supporting EasyWDW.

EasyWDW doesn't rank forecasts in a manner necessary to do what you are saying.

when they lump two parks as the best,and two as to be avoided, that doesn't lend to the kind of evaluation that happens when you give each park (and even each ride) numerical values.

it's like comparing a weather man who says it is going to be really nice compared to the rest of the week, to one that says it is going to be 84 and sunny with winds from the northwest at 3-5 MPH.

they are both forecasting, but only one gives enough info to say they were wildly inaccurate.

 

[DividedSky]

Yeah, and you are smarter than anyone who cares to disagree with you. We all understand. Thank you.

and yet another snarky comment.

 

[btk2333]

EasyWDW doesn't rank forecasts in a manner necessary to do what you are saying.

when they lump two parks as the best,and two as to be avoided, that doesn't lend to the kind of evaluation that happens when you give each park (and even each ride) numerical values.

it's like comparing a weather man who says it is going to be really nice compared to the rest of the week, to one that says it is going to be 84 and sunny with winds from the northwest at 3-5 MPH.

they are both forecasting, but only one gives enough info to say they were wildly inaccurate.

i'm pretty excited for Josh's next post just to see what he has to say about 2 DIS boards posters spending most of a thread arguing about him

 

[shalom]

The reason I put more stock in touringplans and their rating system is they quantify things, and also disclose after the fact what they got wrong and what they got right.

I'll agree that Touring Plans has more number crunchers, but that doesn't make them more accurate. Personally, I think they've been over-weighing their past year averages or something, because they've come up with some really whacked predictions a few times this past year. There were a spate of "What is touring plans doing?" threads at one point, because their predictions were wildly off, and sometimes clearly off before the date (they also change predictions more than Josh, which is annoying for people who do ADRs and the like).

Josh at EasyWDW isn't so systematic about it, but he has admitted he got it wrong and, sometimes, explained why (weather shifts things unpredictably for both sites). I prefer EasyWDW because Josh explains why he predicts what he predicts, and he tries to empower his readers by explaining things like how weather impacts predictions and the like. Touringplans' strengths are that the site is much easier to use and that there's a lot more data in chart form and minute detail, for instance they have wait time estimates for every attraction broken down hourly for the various crowd levels.

While recognizing that averages are just that, and that predictions are fallible, I love seeing that kind of detailed info, and always sign up with TP before going. And then I follow EasyWDW's crowd recommendations.

 

[DividedSky]

i'm pretty excited for Josh's next post just to see what he has to say about 2 DIS boards posters spending most of a thread arguing about him

his free service is commendable. But he is not giving enough information to truly rate his forecasting as we can do with touring plans.

I would hope a board dealing with strategy has had these discussions in the past.

 

[mlneryder]

This thread had so much potential.... oh well. I prefer easywdw because of Josh's writing style. Mark that down as an opinion.

 

[btk2333]

This thread had so much potential.... oh well. I prefer easywdw because of Josh's writing style. Mark that down as an opinion.

+1 thread hijacked... I agree with you on Josh's style- I have a Touring Plans subscription too but I've found Josh more accurate and if they disagree I listen to Josh. That is also my opinion.

 

[shalom]

maybe all the people on a first name basis with the guy at EasyWDW

You have to be on first name basis with Josh, because he won't admit to his second name.

 

[DividedSky]

You have to be on first name basis with Josh, because he won't admit to his second name.

apparently the item you replied to has been deleted.



anyway...the op claims a day was basically as busy as new years eve.

Now this is my problem with EasyWDW, they don't give a numerical grade, they just say which park to avoid.

so someone comes along and says, wow, Josh really nailed it. It reminds me of those that believe in astrology talking about how much someone nailed it.

the point being neither he nor touring plans predicted a new years eve type day. People can come along and claim Josh nailed it because he prevents us from seeing a numerical value. "avoid it" is not the type of rating system you can really evaluate in hindsight.

 

[MVC1225]

You have to be on first name basis with Josh, because he won't admit to his second name.

He's like the Cher, Madonna or Beyonce (pick your decade) of bloggers. Although I am in the Madonna decade, I personally prefer to think of Josh as Cher.

As this post has dissolved into yet another which do you prefer between TP and EasyWDW (and I do read both), count me in as another Josh groupie. I love him and his writing style and I would read him even if he didn't recommend parks. However, when it comes to park recommendation, I find it more useful to have the reasoning behind which park he recommends so I can make an informed decision on whether to follow his recommendation or not. We go to WDW a lot and I honestly can't think of a day where his recommendations have steered me wrong so that is enough "evidence" for me.

Also, he does not merely state two parks recommended and two parks to be avoided. He actually may recommend three parks one day and only have one to be avoided or vice-versa. Further, even within his recommended he has levels (Recommnded; Highly Recommended; Most Recommended).

 

[btk2333]

apparently the item you replied to has been deleted.



anyway...the op claims a day was basically as busy as new years eve.

Now this is my problem with EasyWDW, they don't give a numerical grade, they just say which park to avoid.

so someone comes along and says, wow, Josh really nailed it. It reminds me of those that believe in astrology talking about how much someone nailed it.

the point being neither he nor touring plans predicted a new years eve type day. People can come along and claim Josh nailed it because he prevents us from seeing a numerical value. "avoid it" is not the type of rating system you can really evaluate in hindsight.

When you are planning a trip, you are more likely to try to pick the timing of your trip based on overall crowd levels (which Josh does give, but I honestly don't use) rather than saying "I want to go from January 24-Jan 31 because MK is a 1.5 crowd level Monday and 2.4 on Tuesday and 3.5 on Wednesday" Also, those numbers are entirely subjective- a "1" to me is potentially totally different from your "1." Resulting in threads like this started

Once you've chosen the days of your vacation the individual recommendations are important but not how they compare to the days you are not in Florida. If you are there from January 24-January 31, then what is important is which park is relatively less crowded each day of your trip.

I'm also just not very sure why you get so worked up about people recommending easy WDW... Did he dis you in the past?

 

[DividedSky]

When you are planning a trip, you are more likely to try to pick the timing of your trip based on overall crowd levels (which Josh does give, but I honestly don't use) rather than saying "I want to go from January 24-Jan 31 because MK is a 1.5 crowd level Monday and 2.4 on Tuesday and 3.5 on Wednesday" Also, those numbers are entirely subjective- a "1" to me is potentially totally different from your "1." Resulting in threads like this started

Once you've chosen the days of your vacation the individual recommendations are important but not how they compare to the days you are not in Florida. If you are there from January 24-January 31, then what is important is which park is relatively less crowded each day of your trip.

I'm also just not very sure why you get so worked up about people recommending easy WDW... Did he dis you in the past?

how am i getting worked up exactly?

I'm discussing in a calm fashion why I prefer one over the other. all the while, snarky comments toward me are made, and entire posts of mine have turned up missing.

 

[LindaBabe]

Monday, I hit all 4 parks. Studios was CRAZY! Lines for bag check were all backed up to the circular planting bed.

EPCOT was relatively empty, Magic Kingdom was very reasonable, as was Animal Kingdom.

LAST week, I followed the "day after EMH" strategy and Studios was slammed that day too. I fled before 11 am.

 

[jasmine91]

It wasn't my intention for this post to cause disagreements. I would like to say that we booked this trip with the expectation of it being slower than our past trips to WDW. According to research we did, this week was listed as one of the slowest of year. We have been in September, October, August, May, New Year's, and June, and without a doubt, this time is not significantly less crowded than the rest of our trips. We are, however, still having a wonderful time! In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter too much

 

[ngl]

This is all very interesting information. We live about an hour from WDW and are annual pass holders & DVC members so try to go during all of the "off" times. I have found that besides Sept after Labor Day (before food and wine starts in Oct) there really is no "down" time anymore. Seems hit or miss. We went last Jan for a night or two and could not believe the crowds! In talking with some people, many were foreigners where the seasons are opposite and children were out of school for an extended period of time after the holidays due to it being summer. Heading there for a night this weekend so will be interesting to see!