Crowd Outlook

[StevieB81]

WDW is not at post 9/11 occupancy levels. Lol.

That was 22 years ago. Just sayin'

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

That was 22 years ago. Just sayin'

Yes but travel in post 9/11 was 21 years ago

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

We won't know for sure til the Q4 earnings call. When you add up the discounts, that only the high end of each hotel category is busy and they have closed off sections of resorts makes me believe it's possible.

It's not saying the parks a quiet. They have been busy but off site guests aren't as good as on site guests money wise.

Is attendance down, probably. All I’m saying is “reporting” something like that and giving it life with no merit behind it is not appropriate. You are giving a comment credence solely because you agree with it and were promoting it as fact. Even some of your remarks in this comment are not backed by anything outside of your personal belief. Have your opinion, just please stop backfilling with a bunch of “facts”

 

[Suger Mag]

Yes, I get nauseous thinking about us going in January.

Wow, perhaps you should delay. You have been very vocal about expecting a bad time... this thread, the ride thread, even a few others.. your comments over and over about how you wish you were not going and how everything will not be as you expected or like it was in the past is going to doom your trip before you even get to WDW property.. at one point you wanted to print out all the negative stuff about rides breaking down to give to your group before you go (LOL what fun intro pre-trip... hey folks it is going to suck and here is all the reasons why... whoo hoo... who is packed and ready to go!!).

Although I do not doubt there will be aspects that are not perfect...annoying things... overpriced (that is no difference today vs 10 years ago) But you are setting yourself and your group up for an epic expensive fail....going in expecting a crappy time will likely lead to a crappy time.

 

[clarker99]

If anyone is curious according to a Travel agent on Wdwmagic

"The outlook for onsite hotel bookings is historically bad. Absolutely abysmal.

Compensating with more offsite guests in the parks is nowhere close to a 1-1 trade.

21 year low, sourced to my contacts in inside sales and mgt, WDTC."

In regards to the claims of lowest occupancy in 21 yrs claims:

Domestic Parks hotel occupancy rates per fiscal year:

FY 2002 - 76%

FY 2003 - 77%

FY 2010 - 82%

FY 2011 - 82%

FY 2012 - 81%

FY 20 - 41%

FY 21 - 42%

Q3 23 - 84%

FY 23 Through 9 months - 87%

There are more hotel rooms nights available now than those other years. So, even if Occupancy rates are 76% in Q4FY23, there are still more paid hotel rooms now than 2002 or 2003 or post-2008 crash.

Disney’s Q4 (July - Sept) is historically the slowest time of the year for Disney Parks and travel in general.

All data is taken from Disney’s annual reports via their Investor relations webpage.

 

[Jrb1979]

In regards to the claims of lowest occupancy in 21 yrs claims:

Domestic Parks hotel occupancy rates per fiscal year:

FY 2002 - 76%

FY 2003 - 77%

FY 2010 - 82%

FY 2011 - 82%

FY 2012 - 81%

FY 20 - 41%

FY 21 - 42%

Q3 23 - 84%

FY 23 Through 9 months - 87%

There are more hotel rooms nights available now than those other years. So, even if Occupancy rates are 76% in Q4FY23, there are still more paid hotel rooms now than 2002 or 2003 or post-2008 crash.

Disney’s Q4 (July - Sept) is historically the slowest time of the year for Disney Parks and travel in general.

All data is taken from Disney’s annual reports via their Investor relations webpage.

I wasn't talking about the past. That same guy also said this past summer occupancy was over 80%.

That poster was talking about the forecast going into next year. Sure it can improve but I don't think by much. Mainly cause the majority of Disney vacationers book months in advance.

 

[clarker99]

I wasn't talking about the past. That same guy also said this past summer occupancy was over 80%.

That poster was talking about the forecast going into next year. Sure it can improve but I don't think by much. Mainly cause the majority of Disney vacationers book months in advance.

I just provided the benchmarks for lowest occupancy rate years. Now you can compare when reports come out and we can see if 21 yrs lows happen in 2024. Unless there is some generational event that impacts travel in 2024, we are not gonna see occupancy rates ~75%.

 

[SL6827]

Wow, perhaps you should delay. You have been very vocal about expecting a bad time... this thread, the ride thread, even a few others.. your comments over and over about how you wish you were not going and how everything will not be as you expected or like it was in the past is going to doom your trip before you even get to WDW property.. at one point you wanted to print out all the negative stuff about rides breaking down to give to your group before you go (LOL what fun intro pre-trip... hey folks it is going to suck and here is all the reasons why... whoo hoo... who is packed and ready to go!!).

Although I do not doubt there will be aspects that are not perfect...annoying things... overpriced (that is no difference today vs 10 years ago) But you are setting yourself and your group up for an epic expensive fail....going in expecting a crappy time will likely lead to a crappy time.

The more I delay, the more it will cost. But if it is a fantastic time, I will report that as well.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Is there anything to confirm that currently? I understand that someone is boasting that they are in the know, but that doesn’t seem like information Disney would let out, and could be viewed as handing out insider information.

i cant believe they are at a 21 year low. but i would believe they are lower than they have been before. Inflation is one thing that is pinching everyone's pockets, but disney vacations have outpaced inflation for years, and many of us who went multiple times per year, can no longer justify that and have cut back.

I know you're a data guy and have to have that information to justify it, but i can tell you from those around me and on here, i hear less and less talk of people going to wdw than i have in the past 10 years or so.

 

[Minnie1222]

I have a feeling Disney is working on a formula where they can make the same profit with the least number of guests. It seems that they're deliberately keeping room occupancy and park attendance down with the increased prices while still holding on to the archaic park reservations and hopping restriction. I have no data to back any of this though.

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

I have a feeling Disney is working on a formula where they can make the same profit with the least number of guests. It seems that they're deliberately keeping room occupancy and park attendance down with the increased prices while still holding on to the archaic park reservations and hopping restriction. I have no data to back any of this though.

I think there is some truth to this. People are happier when crowds are lower.

 

[Minnie1222]

but i can tell you from those around me and on here, i hear less and less talk of people going to wdw than i have in the past 10 years or so.

Our area has been dormant about Disney in the past 10 years. That all changed with the recent news about empty parks. The neighborhood chat group went alive with Genie+, and especially individual Lightning Lanes. People are excited that they can pay for a guaranteed seat on the ride. I know more people who are going now than before.

 

[Brian Noble]

I have a feeling Disney is working on a formula where they can make the same profit with the least number of guests.

They aren't just quietly working on it. They've been saying it out loud in earnings calls since Bob Iger was Bob 1.0.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Our area has been dormant about Disney in the past 10 years. That all changed with the recent news about empty parks. The neighborhood chat group went alive with Genie+, and especially individual Lightning Lanes. People are excited that they can pay for a guaranteed seat on the ride. I know more people who are going now than before.

this is why i attempt to stick to hard data. you can always find someone saying yes to someone else no. they could both be correct in some cases which is why the data means so much

 

[ChipnDale79]

this is why i attempt to stick to hard data. you can always find someone saying yes to someone else no. they could both be correct in some cases which is why the data means so much

the problem with that; is that you're only going to get actual hard data on numbers from disney, and you arent going to get that.

 

[Jrb1979]

the problem with that; is that you're only going to get actual hard data on numbers from disney, and you arent going to get that.

And you are only get data on previous months. You won't get data on up coming months.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

the problem with that; is that you're only going to get actual hard data on numbers from disney, and you arent going to get that.

That just isn't true, they have been transparent with their numbers especially the parks. People just tend to say that they are hiding things or not reporting what they should be. Essentially, because it doesn't fit a narrative they must be wrong/ lying.

Omitting information could also be taken as defrauding investors and Disney could/ would be sued so i doubt they're doing what you think they're doing

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

And you are only get data on previous months. You won't get data on up coming months.

You may want to look of the definition of data, i think you would find your comment a little out of whack.

The data on previous months will entail the months we are speaking of currently, you may have to wait for information but it still comes. Typically people get proven wrong and then immediately transition their argument to what is happening currently or what is going to happen down the road is/ is going to be terrible.

Also i think you would be hard pressed to find a company that is able to give you day by day data, most companies do the responsible thing and break up how they're doing by quarter because it helps them illustrate a more reliable picture of what is actually happening

 

[Jrb1979]

well the data on previous months will entail the months we are speaking of currently, you may have to wait for information but it still comes. Typically people get proven wrong and then immediately transition their argument to what is happening currently or down the road is/ is going to be terrible.

Also i think you would be hard pressed to find a company that is able to give you day by day data, most companies do the responsible thing and break up how they're doing by quarter because it helps them illustrate a more reliable picture of what is actually happening

I agree with that. When I posted about it being the lowest it has been in awhile, it was for the holidays and into spring next year. It seems they are not getting as many out of state families visiting they would like.

We won't know till the spring quarter to know the full data.

 

[ChipnDale79]

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