Crowd Outlook

[DCLMP]

Small crowds through 2024, no doubt, and hence, look for discounts to continue.

I think it will go on longer than that.

 

[DCLMP]

I think with the dining plan coming back in 24', and the revenge travelers trailing off, the rest of 23' is in the toilet. I will assume that 24' will start to bounce back time will tell

I think things will be worse going into 24 and beyond.

 

[ChipnDale79]

The prices post-discount are still way too high.

i love Disney, but there needs to be a correction with all the massive price increases the past 10 years. there was a lot of pent up demand for travel ”post covid” that allowed Disney to continue with the high prices.

Hopefully that pent up demand is gone and we can start seeing a reduction. I just priced a trip for 4 (both my kids are now Disney adults) and was flabbergasted with the price. I’ve been pricing disney trips for 15 years. I understand the price i got was a non discounted price and more than likely will not be what i pay, but it was still sticker shock.

I hope people have started pushing back on disney, and that’s why these discounts are coming out.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I think things will be worse going into 24 and beyond.

Hard to say this far out, anecdotally i have been helping people plan trips for 24' specifically because of the dining plan. There is potential for it to sway in either direction and there are so many factors that we haven't even brought up that could be affecting this years dip, I'm not saying that you're wrong i just think it's too early

 

[PDXmouse]

i love Disney, but there needs to be a correction with all the massive price increases the past 10 years. there was a lot of pent up demand for travel ”post covid” that allowed Disney to continue with the high prices.

Hopefully that pent up demand is gone and we can start seeing a reduction. I just priced a trip for 4 (both my kids are now Disney adults) and was flabbergasted with the price. I’ve been pricing disney trips for 15 years. I understand the price i got was a non discounted price and more than likely will not be what i pay, but it was still sticker shock.

I hope people have started pushing back on disney, and that’s why these discounts are coming out.

We won’t see prices go backwards. More aggressive discounts and a slower increase in future prices is probably the best we can hope for.

 

[RivShore]

I think things will be worse going into 24 and beyond.

Based on what exactly?

 

[ChipnDale79]

We won’t see prices go backwards. More aggressive discounts and a slower increase in future prices is probably the best we can hope for.

Some we might. We did I see them remove the parking fees at hotels. I’m not sure they would do that for anything else. But you could see it in ways like bringing back magical express also.

but for the most part, I’d agree with you, it’ll be done via discounts. I’d personally like to see free dining come back. (Probably never will)

 

[Methos]

I think a lot of people are boycotting travel to Florida right now, both liberals and conservatives. Extreme conservatives are boycotting Disney due to them supporting LGBT rights. Extreme liberals are boycotting Florida due to anti-immigration laws, anti-gay laws, and government overreach in relation to freedom of speech and penalizing businesses like Disney for supporting gay rights.

I don't mean this comment to spur a political debate. I don't want to debate those issues here. I'm just saying the problems are real, and there are people on both sides of the political spectrum refusing to travel to Florida and/or Disney right now.

I agree, but it isn't because "Disney due to them supporting LGBT rights", it's the continued and aggressive stance against the individual freedoms and assaults' on the belief system shared by half of the nation. See the "Disney + Satan" thread for an example.

Talk to some real estate folks and you'll hear some interesting observations.

 

[Jrb1979]

Hard to say this far out, anecdotally i have been helping people plan trips for 24' specifically because of the dining plan. There is potential for it to sway in either direction and there are so many factors that we haven't even brought up that could be affecting this years dip, I'm not saying that you're wrong i just think it's too early

IMO they brought the dining plan cause the forecast was slow for next year.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

IMO they brought the dining plan cause the forecast was slow for next year.

that could be, i am still in the very small camp of they said they would bring it back so i took them at their word, and now it's back, but i can see your logic

 

[Brian Noble]

I think there is some truth here.

We were just talking last night about changing our winter '24 plans from Palm Beach (at an oceanfront resort that we *love*) and instead thinking about something else. Maybe Mexico again (we loved Nuevo Vallarta last year) or Southern California; the weather isn't as nice at the latter, but we also haven't been in a while.

Based on what exactly?

I'm hearing a lot of talk about a pending commercial real estate problem; as leases turn over, there are going to be a fair number that are not renewed, and that's going to leave banks holding the bag on some big buildings that no one can do anything with, taking a loss on the loans that financed them. It's a variation on the old saw: if you owe a bank $1,000, they own you. If you owe a bank $1,000,000, you own them.

if that ripples out, it probalby won't look like dot-com or Great Recession, but it's not going to be great.

 

[Jrb1979]

that could be, i am still in the very small camp of they said they would bring it back so i took them at their word, and now it's back, but i can see your logic

I knew it was always coming back. It's the timing of it is why I think bookings forecasted to be soft going into next year. It's also why they are doing the changes to Genie+. None of these things are for guest satisfaction. It's all planned as ways to get people to book vacations. If they are having issues over the holidays, I can't see going into next year being much better

 

[Upatnoon]

We just returned from week at Disney in early June, about one year since our last trip.

The crowds were noticeably larger at Disney Springs -- even during the day -- and it was just as crowded in the parks as a year ago. It appeared more stuff was operating this time and there were more cast members.

I have seen Disney in slow times and busy times and this is by far on the busy scale.

Restaurants, like Space 220 and the Roundup Rodeo, were packed to the gills despite the cost.

I also noticed more international travelers this time, however, it still isn't where it once was.

Anyway, this is all just anecdotal, but I saw nothing indicating a slump.

 

[Jrb1979]

We just returned from week at Disney in early June, about one year since our last trip.

The crowds were noticeably larger at Disney Springs -- even during the day -- and it was just as crowded in the parks as a year ago. It appeared more stuff was operating this time and there were more cast members.

I have seen Disney in slow times and busy times and this is by far on the busy scale.

Restaurants, like Space 220 and the Roundup Rodeo, were packed to the gills despite the cost.

I also noticed more international travelers this time, however, it still isn't where it once was.

Anyway, this is all just anecdotal, but I saw nothing indicating a slump.

If it truly is busy then why are they putting out all these discounts for the fall and holidays? Something just doesn't add up here.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

We were just talking last night about changing our winter '24 plans from Palm Beach (at an oceanfront resort that we *love*) and instead thinking about something else. Maybe Mexico again (we loved Nuevo Vallarta last year) or Southern California; the weather isn't as nice at the latter, but we also haven't been in a while.


I'm hearing a lot of talk about a pending commercial real estate problem; as leases turn over, there are going to be a fair number that are not renewed, and that's going to leave banks holding the bag on some big buildings that no one can do anything with, taking a loss on the loans that financed them. It's a variation on the old saw: if you owe a bank $1,000, they own you. If you owe a bank $1,000,000, you own them.

if that ripples out, it probalby won't look like dot-com or Great Recession, but it's not going to be great.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, a lot of big companies have brought back employees at least part time to their buildings, small companies usually try to mirror what the big boys are doing. The one thing that i can think of that would factor in would be that smaller companies typically lease their spaces, where larger ones typically own. It will definitely be interesting to see what landlords are willing to offer moving forward to bring people back

 

[Smugpugmug]

We just returned from week at Disney in early June, about one year since our last trip.

The crowds were noticeably larger at Disney Springs -- even during the day -- and it was just as crowded in the parks as a year ago. It appeared more stuff was operating this time and there were more cast members.

I have seen Disney in slow times and busy times and this is by far on the busy scale.

Restaurants, like Space 220 and the Roundup Rodeo, were packed to the gills despite the cost.

I also noticed more international travelers this time, however, it still isn't where it once was.

Anyway, this is all just anecdotal, but I saw nothing indicating a slump.

I was at WDW last weekend and definitely agree that Disney Springs was way busier than the parks. Some areas were wall to wall people.

However Epcot was not busy at all for a weekend. None of the festival booths or La Cava had a line. I did notice that wait times were somewhat high with Test Track and Frozen hovering in the 60-90 minute range. Remy stayed between 40-60. Everything else was 20 or less. Genie+ was $22 per person that day.

 

[ChipnDale79]

We just returned from week at Disney in early June, about one year since our last trip.

The crowds were noticeably larger at Disney Springs -- even during the day -- and it was just as crowded in the parks as a year ago. It appeared more stuff was operating this time and there were more cast members.

I have seen Disney in slow times and busy times and this is by far on the busy scale.

Restaurants, like Space 220 and the Roundup Rodeo, were packed to the gills despite the cost.

I also noticed more international travelers this time, however, it still isn't where it once was.

Anyway, this is all just anecdotal, but I saw nothing indicating a slump.

I think the way Disney handles crowds nowadays, makes it hard for us to tell when it’s a “slow time”. They can and do alter staffing so that things are not running at full capacity to lower their operating revenue.

they aren’t putting out discounts out of the goodness of their hearts.

 

[RivShore]

I'm hearing a lot of talk about a pending commercial real estate problem; as leases turn over, there are going to be a fair number that are not renewed, and that's going to leave banks holding the bag on some big buildings that no one can do anything with, taking a loss on the loans that financed them. It's a variation on the old saw: if you owe a bank $1,000, they own you. If you owe a bank $1,000,000, you own them.

if that ripples out, it probalby won't look like dot-com or Great Recession, but it's not going to be great.

I don't doubt this and a few other things will damage consumer spending in the future - interest rates going from 0 to 6% has to have a few serious unintended consequences eventually (already have the banking failures).
But what gets me is the one sentence comments (not from you) that travel will die in 2024 and beyond. How do they know the timing and how do they know the consumer impact. Give us some thoughts on why you are so certain (again not directed at you Brian).
The current strength of the consumer sector has surprised just about everyone, so it's all very hard to predict. And the commercial RE problem you lay out will probably take years to fully play out, not 6 months like that PP indicated. Chances are no one will see the next big one coming.

 

[RivShore]

I was at WDW last weekend and definitely agree that Disney Springs was way busier than the parks. Some areas were wall to wall people.

However Epcot was not busy at all for a weekend. None of the festival booths or La Cava had a line. I did notice that wait times were somewhat high with Test Track and Frozen hovering in the 60-90 minute range. Remy stayed between 40-60. Everything else was 20 or less. Genie+ was $22 per person that day.

Odd, we are in Epcot at least a few times a month and have never seen the countries not busy (this year). I do agree that the booths don't seem as busy for this festival but maybe F&G just doesn't have as good a selection as some of the other festivals. But La Cava, no line? Never ever saw that. When?? How did I miss this? Next time put out a red alert!! LOL

 

[BrianL]

Odd, we are in Epcot at least a few times a month and have never seen the countries not busy (this year). I do agree that the booths don't seem as busy for this festival but maybe F&G just doesn't have as good a selection as some of the other festivals. But La Cava, no line? Never ever saw that. When?? How did I miss this? Next time put out a red alert!! LOL

Yeah, I dn't think F&G food boths are quite as popular as the F&W ones. I was there about a month ago though and they could get jumping at times for sure.